Dan Martin 2012 Prediction Thread

Slideshowbob

Well people, how well can Dan the man do this season?

Predict his best result ....

I'll start with a TDF stage win

drogdub

Vaughters has already talked about him as KOM and the tour so thats mine. Also if he goes to the Vaulta he could be on the podium

sy

Has potential to win one of the following Volta Catalunya or Vuelta Pais Vaso but my guess is the first Major Classic win by an Irish Cyclist since '92 when he wins Lombardia Be interesting to see if the change of date for this race will attract a bigger field. It falls 2 weeks after the Vuelta.

ROK ON

I hope that he can challenge for honours during Ardennnes Week. He does seem to have an extra gear on steep finishes, but given history an early season result is probably less likely.

The Vuelta last year was interesting and few people speak about it.
He finished 13th iirc having lost 4mins in the TT and had a 2min penalty.
If he wasn't penalised and lost say 2mins in TT then it was a top 5 position hypothetically.
The amount of TTs in the TDF could be very useful as part of a KOM strategy. He could lose much time against the clock so hopefully will be allowed up the road to pick off KOM points.

I would love to see a stage win and Lombardia.
One of the best races I have seen in recent years was a TOB stage where Martin, Bozic and Hoogerland attacked all day long. He is a very exciting rider to watch, I hope that is not quashed.

happytramp

Anyone know what his race program is this year? I though he was riding Volta de Algarve next week but he's not on the start list. I'd love to see him in the Giro but allergies may prevent him from being competitive GC wise.

pantani

you have to like his style ,good in the mountains and in breakaways.probably better late in the season when his allergies don't affect him .i predict vuelta stage and top 5 finish plus il lombardia or paris tours win.last year he finished 8th in UCI points list one place above bradley wiggins......go Dan!!!

bcmf

happytramp wrote: »

but allergies may prevent him from being competitive GC wise.

That what I was thinking. Apparently he really suffer's from allergies in high summer so he would prob put him down for Giro and early - late season classics

Captain Havoc

bcmf wrote: »

That what I was thinking. Apparently he really suffer's from allergies in high summer so he would prob put him down for Giro and early - late season classics

I thought that was spring thing?

Slideshowbob

I thought he had a nose job

bcmf

Captain Havoc wrote: »

I thought that was spring thing?

ugghhh..maybe. Will see if I still have the article.

Yup. The Captain has spoken. Its spring he is allergic to

http://www.cyclingweekly.co.uk/news/latest/531266/dan-martin-looking-for-more-success-in-2012.html

TheNah

does anyone know if he is a definite for the TdF? I remember last year kindof assuming he was in, then he lost out at the last minute. dont think he will ride the Giro due to allergies, he has said that. Would love to see him win a mountain stage in tdf, could he target the podium at the Veulta? would love to see him get some decent coverage over here for his achievements.

happytramp

TheNah wrote: »

Would love to see him win a mountain stage in tdf, could he target the podium at the Veulta? would love to see him get some decent coverage over here for his achievements.

Okay, after a bit of thought I'm going to hazard a guess that he'll have an uneventful spring classics, a good GC showing in his pre tour warm up of either tour of Switzerland or Dauphine Libre, go for stage wins, KotM points and be mountain domestique for Vande Velde at the Tour followed by a very good Vuelta.

The Vuelta has to be a great opportunity for him to do well at the GC. Seven MTF's and three that end with very steep ramps and only one 40k time trial. If he can limit his losses to something sensible this time a top 5 is a possibility.

RobFowl

Slideshowbob wrote: »

I thought he had a nose job

He did the sucess rates from those are not great though. Don't think it helped last year but might have been too soon to tell.

ROK ON

RobFowl wrote: »

He did the sucess rates from those are not great though. Don't think it helped last year but might have been too soon to tell.

I bow to your medical insights here, but it tallies with my own experience. I went for a nose job several years back as a result of allergies/sinusitis etc etc.

The surgeon told me that he had a similar problem himself and would not recommend surgery as a treatment as it was no more than 50/50 as to how successful it would be. He also said that scar tissue could actually exaccerbate the problem.

elduggo

happytramp wrote: »

and be mountain domestique for Vande Velde at the Tour followed by a very good Vuelta.

CVV has no real recent form. With Hesjedel being named to lead the team at the Giro, and his intention to ride the tour (though not lead the team), one would have to assume Dan will be leading the team.

CVV could get the nod seeing as hes American, but that would be like Froome having to support Wiggins.........

And its an either/or with Dan when it comes to the Tour/Vuelta, especially this year with the Vuelta starting and finishing early. Personally I think Dan would do better in the Vuelta, given the parcours, though with Movistar's star-studded lineup of dubious riders and steak-boy himself due to return before then, I reckon I'd now prefer if Dan steered clear of the Vuelta and put his all into the Tour.

He'll go all out in the Ardennes too. A top 5 in L-B-L and at least a top 10 in one of the others (G-W probably, given its finishing strait)

happytramp

elduggo wrote: »

CVV has no real recent form. With Hesjedel being named to lead the team at the Giro, and his intention to ride the tour (though not lead the team), one would have to assume Dan will be leading the team.

The Tour/Vuelta decision is a tricky one. With nearly 100k of time trialing in the Tour and only 40k in the Vuelta, Vaughter's hand may be forced. Can't see him risking Martin potentially losing ten minutes in the tour and counting Garmin out of the GC. But Martin is 26 and now is the time for him to ride the Tour, unfortunately the course couldn't have been worse for him.

ROK ON

happytramp wrote: »

The Tour/Vuelta decision is a tricky one. With nearly 100k of time trialing in the Tour and only 40k in the Vuelta, Vaughter's hand may be forced. Can't see him risking Martin potentially losing ten minutes in the tour and counting Garmin out of the GC. But Martin is 26 and now is the time for him to ride the Tour, unfortunately the course couldn't have been worse for him.

JV was interviewed recently and said that he is giving consideration to picking Martin not as a GC candidate but as a KOM candidate.

If this is the case then the poor TTing may actually play to his strength - if he makes the selection and gets into a break then the teams of the GC contenders may not care that he is up the road as he is not a GC contender. This is not likley to be the case with a decent TTer (such as some of the Sky riders). Garmin wanted to win the 2011 Team TT, so they could not afford passengers in that regard - there is no TTT in the 2012 Tour. Given his form last year and the year before in fairness, I think that it would be very harsh not to select him for this years event (if that form is maintained).

Not only can he climb, but he is good at getting into breaks, and while not a sprinter, he is a better sprinter than many climbers. You'd be mad not to take him if he maintains his form. When you consider the dross that other teams send.

Garmin have never really viewed him as a GC contender more a KOM specialist (like Moncoute for example).

ROK ON

elduggo wrote: »

He'll go all out in the Ardennes too. A top 5 in L-B-L and at least a top 10 in one of the others (G-W probably, given its finishing strait)

If he can build form there is no reason why he cannot win LBL or Amstel Gold.

happytramp

ROK ON wrote: »

JV was interviewed recently and said that he is giving consideration to picking Martin not as a GC candidate but as a KOM candidate.

If this is the case then the poor TTing may actually play to his strength - if he makes the selection and gets into a break then the teams of the GC contenders may not care that he is up the road as he is not a GC contender. This is not likley to be the case with a decent TTer (such as some of the Sky riders). Garmin wanted to win the 2011 Team TT, so they could not afford passengers in that regard - there is no TTT in the 2012 Tour. Given his form last year and the year before in fairness, I think that it would be very harsh not to select him for this years event (if that form is maintained).

Not only can he climb, but he is good at getting into breaks, and while not a sprinter, he is a better sprinter than many climbers. You'd be mad not to take him if he maintains his form. When you consider the dross that other teams send.

Garmin have never really viewed him as a GC contender more a KOM specialist (like Moncoute for example).

I agree entirely with your assessment of the situation. Do you think participation in both the Tour and the Veulta is a possibility? Or do you think (as has been already suggested) this is not a realistic goal for him?

Fr D Maugire

ROK ON wrote: »

JV was interviewed recently and said that he is giving consideration to picking Martin not as a GC candidate but as a KOM candidate.

If this is the case then the poor TTing may actually play to his strength - if he makes the selection and gets into a break then the teams of the GC contenders may not care that he is up the road as he is not a GC contender. This is not likley to be the case with a decent TTer (such as some of the Sky riders). Garmin wanted to win the 2011 Team TT, so they could not afford passengers in that regard - there is no TTT in the 2012 Tour. Given his form last year and the year before in fairness, I think that it would be very harsh not to select him for this years event (if that form is maintained).

Not only can he climb, but he is good at getting into breaks, and while not a sprinter, he is a better sprinter than many climbers. You'd be mad not to take him if he maintains his form. When you consider the dross that other teams send.

Garmin have never really viewed him as a GC contender more a KOM specialist (like Moncoute for example).

I agree with this mostly as well , the big reason he wasnt taken last year was because Garmin were really aiming for the TTT at which Dan is weak.

I think he will go to the Tour this year and depending on how he comes out of it, will then decide whether to send him to the Vuelta.

elduggo

ROK ON wrote: »

JV was interviewed recently and said that he is giving consideration to picking Martin not as a GC candidate but as a KOM candidate.

while I agree this should be the case I'm not entirely convinced that JV or Dan himself do. Theres no doubt that Dan had his heart set on a good GC placing in the Vuelta last year, and but for some unfair treatment and some plain rotten luck, he'd have fared much better than he did. Whether he had genuine GC aspirations or whether he was out to prove a point (because he made no effort to disguise his disappointment at his omission from the Tour team) I do not know.

If this is the case then the poor TTing may actually play to his strength - if he makes the selection and gets into a break then the teams of the GC contenders may not care that he is up the road as he is not a GC contender.

I've always hoped Roche would have adopted this kind of 'tactic', and come this years tour he may well do. On Martin though, in the Vuelta he was horribly unlucky in that almost every attempt he made to try and make a break was marked by one of the overall contenders. I guess they saw him as someone credible enough to actually make a break work, and hence grabbed his wheel as soon as he jumped. But for that I'm convinced he'd have taken at least 2 more stages.

But when it comes to the Tour he'd want to be well down the rankings to make breaks stick. The Tour tends to be competitive well beyond just the first 5 or 10 places. I recall Roche talking about a break being chased down because some rider's team wanted to protect his 15th position in the GC. I can't see any team doing that in the Vuelta.

I'd expect this year's Vuelta to have far more serious GC challengers. I can't see Dan bettering his 2011 performance so am really hoping he goes all out for the tour. Stage wins and the mountains jersey for at least a couple of days, would be great. Whether Garmin are happy to put their efforts into this rather than a GC contender (plus they'll need some bit of a leadout train for Farrar) remains to be seen.

elduggo

ROK ON wrote: »

If he can build form there is no reason why he cannot win LBL or Amstel Gold.

agreed. Its a shame about that crash in LBL last year. But, Gilbert and the Schlecks will also probably go all out for the Ardennes. It'd take a hell of an effort from Dan to beat them. Not beyond him though.

happytramp

Good interview with him here yesterday. Speaks frankly about his season so far and his plans for the Ardenne's.

http://www.velonation.com/News/ID/11495/Dan-Martin-Interview-Big-ambitions-for-the-Ardennes-Classics.aspx

riparooo

So far he has had his best start ever to a season and has clocked up a nice pile of UCI points. The next two days in the tour of romandie should provide some clarity on both his ability and intentions for the season and beyond.

This season has seen him less agressive than usual and trying to improve his tactial game. Its only a matter of time I suspect that he will win a one day classic. As for the tours he seems better to contains his losses and so should be a GC contender in the next couple of years.

Anyone have any idea if he will be in the Garmin team for the Giro?

Beasty

Just a reminder - any references to any same day Tour of Romandie information requires spoiler tags (not that I've any idea what happened today as I'll be watching the highlights on Eurosport at 10.30;))

happytramp

elduggo wrote: »

He'll go all out in the Ardennes too. A top 5 in L-B-L and at least a top 10 in one of the others (G-W probably, given its finishing strait)

It would be remiss of me not to point out your extreme case of accuracy here. Chapeau.

Also as an aside I would flippin love if Dan rode the Giro.

ROK ON

http://www.stickybottle.com/latest-news/martin-to-target-tour-de-france-stage-wins-sean-kelly-says-roche-should-do-same/

elduggo

happytramp wrote: »

It would be remiss of me not to point out your extreme case of accuracy here. Chapeau.

Also as an aside I would flippin love if Dan rode the Giro.

why thank you.

The giro is shaping up to be very light on big names. Some relative nobody could end up taking the honours. Personally I'd love to see Roche ride for GC in it, then go for stages in the Tour.

As for Dan in the Giro, I think he could definitely do well. The weather tends to be such as it would suit him (in terms of his sinuses not affecting him). But, with Garmin naming Ryder as team leader I think he'd have a very specific job if he were named - that being to pace Ryder up the big hills. Ryder could very well podium (don't think he could win it, but definitely could come top 3).

Its getting close now. I'm really dying to see the final start list.

Pherekydes

elduggo wrote: »

Personally I'd love to see Roche ride for GC in it, then go for stages in the Tour.

Roche isn't named on the AG2R team. His old pal, Gadret leads the team.

ROK ON

Not sure is it possible for Martin (or Hejay) to do well at the Giro.

IMHO it is the least clean Grand tour out there, and more prone to strange results. Also Martin has raced a lot already, if he wants to ride the tour for a jersey as seems to be the case then he possibly needs to spend May and June resting & then rebuilding peak form.

I can imagine that he will spend time doing recon of the main climbs etc. I think that a polka dot jersey is a realistic goal. He is no threat on GC and will be down significant time with prologue and first TT by the time mountains arrive. Things are going reasonably well, hopefully it's onwards and upwards.

In terms of Nico, there must be doubts as to whether he will be a protected rider at this years tour - that will be Peraud and Dupont on the basis of form.

Inquitus

ROK ON wrote: »

In terms of Nico, there must be doubts as to whether he will be a protected rider at this years tour - that will be Peraud and Dupont on the basis of form.

Nico's form has has been poor these last couple of years, he was making it into the final selection on the big TDF climbs before that and putting in a really good show, now he is out the back early doors.

elduggo

ROK ON wrote: »

IMHO it is the least clean Grand tour out there

for me La Vuelta takes top honours there. Spanish cycling seems to lag far behind when it comes to making a concerted effort to clean up the sport.

Casero/Cobo/Valverde/Mosquero/etc

Also Martin has raced a lot already, if he wants to ride the tour for a jersey as seems to be the case then he possibly needs to spend May and June resting & then rebuilding peak form.

he has, but he hasn't seemed hellbent on challenging for GC in any race yet. Hes going well in Romandie but with Ryder in the race, and set to lead Garmin in the Giro, I expect he'll have to sacrifice his own chances to ride for him.

I can imagine that he will spend time doing recon of the main climbs etc. I think that a polka dot jersey is a realistic goal. He is no threat on GC and will be down significant time with prologue and first TT by the time mountains arrive. Things are going reasonably well, hopefully it's onwards and upwards.

agreed. And I'd almost hope he'd exaggerate his time losses by sitting up in the first week or so and conserving energy.

In terms of Nico, there must be doubts as to whether he will be a protected rider at this years tour - that will be Peraud and Dupont on the basis of form.

If it wasn't Nico, but some other rider who has had the same recent form as hes had, we'd be shocked to see him being protected. He'd be a super-domestique if Ag2R had anyone that could push on GC. They seem a totally disorganised lot though and tend just to do whatever suits them. If Nico decides he wants to ride for GC then I reckon he'll do that, but if he finds himself trailing Dupont or Peraud, then he'll have little option but to ride for them. If, on the other hand, he noses in front of them early on I can see him being stubborn, and insisting the team rides for him. I sincerely hope he doesn't go for GC - hes not really that type of rider and I'm hoping his experience from races completed this year already, will have convinced him of that also.