Treble for Week-end

knockostia

thinking of €100 treble on Sprinter Sacre, Long Run, and Zarkander @ the weekend. Will pay €1200. Any thoughts, madness or good value?

Nulty

Not for me but for you it depends on how much 100 euro is worth to you.

It looks a nice bet but I don't think any of them are particularly attractive as a single never mind a treble.

I'd go

The Giant Bolster ew or nothing in the Denman
Cue Card in the Game Spirit or nothing
Ubi Ace ew in the Betfair

But I will probably only make two of those bets at the most as single/eachway.

Good Luck

windy bee

I'd do that two of those trebles for €50 and through in Cue Card instead of Sprinter Sacre and hedge my bets, €600 is better than a nearly-had €1,200 !!

Still not bad return though!

Huntey

Sprinter Sacre is easy money. 5/4 is the value of the season.

knockostia

What do people think of Zarkander's Prospects? Am leaning toward a double of Long Run and Sprinter Sacre. Maybe 50 on a double + 50 on the treble

longshotvalue

Huntey wrote: »

Sprinter Sacre is easy money. 5/4 is the value of the season.

well know for sure after the race. Cue Card has very solid form in fairness..

He might win here but i cant see him beating Peddlers Cross in the Arkle..

premierstone

aidankkk wrote: »

well know for sure after the race. Cue Card has very solid form in fairness..

He might win here but i cant see him beating Peddlers Cross in the Arkle..

Why not?? How will Peddlers turn around a 16lenght beating, not saying he wont btw just interested as to why you think he will, poersonally the more I watch hes two chase's Im convinced Sprinter Sacre is one of the best 2m Novice chasers I've seen.

longshotvalue

premierstone wrote: »

Why not?? How will Peddlers turn around a 16lenght beating, not saying he wont btw just interested as to why you think he will, poersonally the more I watch hes two chase's Im convinced Sprinter Sacre is one of the best 2m Novice chasers I've seen.

Im not sure, but the one thing that matters above all else at the festival is festival form, and Peddlers is in a totally different league in those terms.

I just watched last years Champion Hurdle, and really Peddlers cross is very impressive getting his head down and fighting, unless Sprinter is well clear after the last i know who i would fancy by the end of the Hill..

He is not such great value now at 4/1, i got a bit on at 9.0 on betfair after he was beaten last time.

Well know a lot more after the Cue Card race..

premierstone

Fair enough but remember Sprinter was 3rd in Supreme Novice and got a rating of 149 for that which is higher than the rating Peddlers achieved when winning the Neptune and is also rated higher as a chaser, granted it is only 1lb in the difference.

Colonel Sanders

Timeform have Cue Card ahead of Sprinter Sacre at the weights this Saturday.

While Sprinter Sacre may well win I personally think you'd get a better 5/4 shot most weekends

Colonel Sanders

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/12/02/08/manual_115013.html&BID=465

Huntey

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Timeform have Cue Card ahead of Sprinter Sacre at the weights this Saturday.

Cue Card will be shown a clean pair of clippers this weekend.

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

While Sprinter Sacre may well win I personally think you'd get a better 5/4 shot most weekends

Will you post up a 5/4 shot on Friday/Saturday/Sunday that you think is better value than SS?

UrbanSea

I hate backing trebles.


I didn't look at the odds, but say for example you have a treble and the last horse is at evens, and if it wins you'll get 1200. Would you actually stick 600 on the horse if it wasn't in your treble?

People don't seem to think of it like that.

hucklebuck

Cue Card V Sprinter Sacre is a watching brief for me, I thought Cue Card was impressive last time out too and I felt the reaction to Sprinter Sacre's win was over the top.

I too will be siding with Peddlers at Cheltenham.

Not sure about Long Run this year, Kauto held him well last two times and he may have regressed since last year, won't be touching him at 1/2 in any case.

If I was doing a treble with a decent chance it would be Sprinter Sacre Grands Crus and Zarkandar. I reckon it should be about 20/1 (assuming GC around 5/4).

If you are undecided about Cue Card and Sprinter Sacre get the treble odds for each treble, using a ratio on the amount you are prepared to lose and back each one accordingly. This way you are either bust or you know what refund you get, do them with BOG firms so you can get more than you expect on either or both.

Huntey

hucklebuck wrote: »

Not sure about Long Run this year, Kauto held him well last two times and he may have regressed since last year, won't be touching him at 1/2 in any case.

Factor in Kauto's KG problem last year and the fact 3 miles is his optimum and it should put it in perspective.

Long Run hasn't regressed,he just lacks the toe that Kauto has.

hucklebuck wrote: »

If you are undecided about Cue Card and Sprinter Sacre get the treble odds for each treble

If you are undecided about SS and Cue Card then back Sprinter Sacre.

Huntey

UrbanSea wrote: »

People don't seem to think of it like that.

Partly because that isn't the case, you could also twist it and say would you put €100 on an evens shot to win 1200.

People don't think of it like that because you aren't putting €100 to win €1200, same way you aren't putting €600 on the treble.

UrbanSea

Huntey wrote: »

Partly because that isn't the case, you could also twist it and say would you put €100 on an evens shot to win 1200.

People don't think of it like that because you aren't putting €100 to win €1200, same way you aren't putting €600 on the treble.

You wouldn't be putting 100 on an evens shot to win 1200. Yes that was the original stake, but it would have been rolled over on two horses.

I don't understand what you mean by the second part- The OP is putting on 100 euro to return 1200.

UrbanSea

And I think Sprinter Sacre will win Saturday. The thing putting me off backing it is that it's ante post rules.

If the meeting is abandoned, ante post stakes are refunded are they?

hucklebuck

Huntey wrote: »

Factor in Kauto's KG problem last year and the fact 3 miles is his optimum and it should put it in perspective.

Long Run hasn't regressed,he just lacks the toe that Kauto has.

What was his problem in the KG, do you mean crashing into the fence or did he scope bad or something?

I don't think he is the same this year, Weird Al was only 2 lengths behind him in Haydock and save for Masterminded it was a poor KG, Capt Chris is not the horse he was last year.

If Grands Crus ends up in the Gold Cup(looks unlikely) I would smash into him ahead of Long Run.

Huntey wrote: »

If you are undecided about SS and Cue Card then back Sprinter Sacre.

Maybe I will

hucklebuck

UrbanSea wrote: »

If the meeting is abandoned, ante post stakes are refunded are they?

Not as far as I remember, if the race is run at the same course the bet stays but if it is run at a different track it's voided. Not 100% on that by the way.

ste2010

Huntey wrote: »

hucklebuck wrote: »

Not sure about Long Run this year, Kauto held him well last two times and he may have regressed since last year, won't be touching him at 1/2 in any case.

Factor in Kauto's KG problem last year and the fact 3 miles is his optimum and it should put it in perspective.

Long Run hasn't regressed,he just lacks the toe that Kauto has.

hucklebuck wrote: »

If you are undecided about Cue Card and Sprinter Sacre get the treble odds for each treble

If you are undecided about SS and Cue Card then back Sprinter Sacre.

I can't see sprinter sacre being beaten by cue card in fairness. I know SS has had 1 run over fences but it was incredible..
Didn't cue card make a few bad mistakes in his last 2 races..?
I don't think he's treble material anyway. I'd agree with throwing grans crus in there instead though.
I might have a look at that stupid double I put on on boyles again for GC

newuser89

I really like this treble myself
Could do e/w treble in case one of them places and you will at least get your stake back

shy-tall-knight

Bostons Angel, Defy Logic(been waiting a long time for him to race, in the bumper on Sunday sporting sue magniers silks) and Sportsmaster. Really fancy these three for sunday, big singles and e/w treble.

Hulk Hands

UrbanSea wrote: »

I hate backing trebles.


I didn't look at the odds, but say for example you have a treble and the last horse is at evens, and if it wins you'll get 1200. Would you actually stick 600 on the horse if it wasn't in your treble?

People don't seem to think of it like that.

I always think like that. I sometimes put on doubles/trebles, more often put on accums on things like American football and GAA. If I have them all up until the last leg, 9/10 times I lay off because i'm just not comfortable with the amount of money rolling onto that horse/team. Usually I leave it that I win more if the last leg comes in because obviously I fancy them, just not to that great an extent.

If you put €100 on a 4 leg accumulator with all the legs at evens, and the first 3 win with the 4th to come, then your slip is now worth €800, not €100. Thinking otherwise is stupidity. I hate when people refuse to lay off towards the end of an accumulator, using the phrase "sure im only losing a tenner" etc. You should only continue with a bet if you're comfortable with the stakes in relation to the potential winnings

Nulty

shy-tall-knight wrote: »

Bostons Angel, Defy Logic(been waiting a long time for him to race, in the bumper on Sunday sporting sue magniers silks) and Sportsmaster. Really fancy these three for sunday, big singles and e/w treble.

I haven't looked at any of the Irish racing yet except the Hennessey and I'm with you on Bostons Angel. I think he might be carrying my dosh.

knockostia

I'm liking the look of the e/w treble. money back if one or all place. what does grand crus race look like, would it be better to include him instead of long run or sprinter sacre, or make it a fourfold. Also will sticky ground after frost be an issue. I think if the race is cancelled u get ur money back antipost. Will odds be shorter on the day?

Colonel Sanders

Huntey wrote: »

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Timeform have Cue Card ahead of Sprinter Sacre at the weights this Saturday.

Cue Card will be shown a clean pair of clippers this weekend.

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

While Sprinter Sacre may well win I personally think you'd get a better 5/4 shot most weekends

Will you post up a 5/4 shot on Friday/Saturday/Sunday that you think is better value than SS?

I'd rather back Dare To Doubt tomorrow at around 5/4 tbh. Cue Dare To Doubt being hammered & SS winning on the bridle

I certainly don't see 5/4 SS as colossal value, win or lose come saturday

knockostia

long run, sprinter sacre, grand crus, zarkander - newbury saturday

€50 e/w fourfold



all win €1296.47

one or all place €151.1 (assumes evens for grands crus)

one falls -€100

Please talk me out of this but looks good, maybe smaller stakes.

these horses seem miles ahead of the rest, bit concerned with frost ground

Huntey

SS has to beat Cue Card, evens is a cracking price.

All those horses have to place at least to even get a return Knockostia, just something to consider.

knockostia

Yes I know that its by no means certain, horse racing never is. I hate when people say horses are certs. Though these aren't handicaps, the horses involved are all consistent quality animals, also the e/w mitigates for a bit of risk.

I'm just pondering that there is maybe less than a 12/1 chance of them all winning and a around 1 in 2 chance of them all placing. That in my opinion represents value. Whether I make the bet is another matter €100 is a big enough outlay. Though 4 favs winning in a row...quite rare.

What price do you think grand crus will go off at. How come there is no prices up yet? also will the weather be a factor?

ste2010

As appealing as the treble sounds right now..havening learned my lesson the hard way I think ill avoid doing a treble until final declarations and a day before the races...if it was abandoned I'm sure the trainers might have other considerations re preparations.
Might also add bog warrior in and replace long run with grans crus and stomach the risk

ste2010

ste2010 wrote: »

As appealing as the treble sounds right now..havening learned my lesson the hard way I think ill avoid doing a treble until final declarations and a day before the races...if it was abandoned I'm sure the trainers might have other considerations re preparations.
Might also add bog warrior in and replace long run with grans crus and stomach the risk

And "stomach the risk" isn't the name of a horse

kiers47

ste2010 wrote: »

Might also add bog warrior in and replace long run with grans crus and stomach the risk

On Bog Warrior it will be a tricky race against Last Installment i would wait to see what Davy decides to get on while not always a guarantee it is a good indication of which he reckons is better. Last Installment hammered First Lieutenant last time out so i reckon davy will surely want to be on his side this time around. Just speculation though.

kiers47

Also slightly off topic but i dont want to make a new thread for just thurles tomorrow. Quarryvale looks a tad over priced in the opener considering he bolted up the last twice at this track all be it in lesser company and over a couple of furlongs less. 12/1 looks a steal though. Also Ruby/Mullins looks nailed on to take both beginners chases fairly poor fields and both horses stand out a mile. Not sure of prices but going on the exchanges 3/1 on the double is possible at some stage tomorrow.

ste2010

kiers47 wrote: »

ste2010 wrote: »

Might also add bog warrior in and replace long run with grans crus and stomach the risk

On Bog Warrior it will be a tricky race against Last Installment i would wait to see what Davy decides to get on while not always a guarantee it is a good indication of which he reckons is better. Last Installment hammered First Lieutenant last time out so i reckon davy will surely want to be on his side this time around. Just speculation though.

I think bog warrior is going in Naas
http://www.irishracing.com/v5newsitem?prid=58797

hucklebuck

knockostia wrote: »

Yes I know that its by no means certain, horse racing never is. I hate when people say horses are certs. Though these aren't handicaps, the horses involved are all consistent quality animals, also the e/w mitigates for a bit of risk.

I'm just pondering that there is maybe less than a 12/1 chance of them all winning and a around 1 in 2 chance of them all placing. That in my opinion represents value. Whether I make the bet is another matter €100 is a big enough outlay. Though 4 favs winning in a row...quite rare.

What price do you think grand crus will go off at. How come there is no prices up yet? also will the weather be a factor?

Zarkandars race is a handicap but should still win well.

Bet looks good to me though.

Nulty

"Zarkandar should win well."

Zarkandar should only win well because thats what you choose to believe. It's not like he's chucked in. We don't know that he's chucked in and even so, this isn't his main target and its his first run of the year. A prep run for the CH. I reckon he's way too short for the Champion and thats the reason why people are so convinced he'll hack up on Saturday. His flat form is not even that spectacular, beaten by 80-90 rated horses on the flat. Hurricane fly was a better horse then and is far more than likely a better horse now and in the future.

He's only achieved an RPR of 149. And whether thats because he is not that good or because hes too inexperienced to have had the chance to expose himself, those are two good reasons why he's not the good thing he's made out to be.

And for those of you going each way....your even more mad. The horse will need to place himself because Ruby will not push the horse out if his chance is gone. He won't be beaten up to get 4th place that's.

Also Nicholls can't tell if the horse is going well at home or not so you can't even suggest that support for the horse in the market has anything to do with stable confidence.

I see no good reason to back Zarkandar for either race at the minute - other than the fact I can't find anything else to back in the Betfair either!

hucklebuck

Nulty wrote: »

"Zarkandar should win well."

Zarkandar should only win well because thats what you choose to believe. It's not like he's chucked in. We don't know that he's chucked in and even so, this isn't his main target and its his first run of the year. A prep run for the CH. I reckon he's way too short for the Champion and thats the reason why people are so convinced he'll hack up on Saturday. His flat form is not even that spectacular, beaten by 80-90 rated horses on the flat. Hurricane fly was a better horse then and is far more than likely a better horse now and in the future.

He's only achieved an RPR of 149. And whether thats because he is not that good or because hes too inexperienced to have had the chance to expose himself, those are two good reasons why he's not the good thing he's made out to be.

And for those of you going each way....your even more mad. The horse will need to place himself because Ruby will not push the horse out if his chance is gone. He won't be beaten up to get 4th place that's.

Also Nicholls can't tell if the horse is going well at home or not so you can't even suggest that support for the horse in the market has anything to do with stable confidence.

I see no good reason to back Zarkandar for either race at the minute - other than the fact I can't find anything else to back in the Betfair either!

So I think he will win because I chose to believe it. You dont believe he will win but you cant identify one horse to take him on with.

To be competitive in the champion he needs to improve 20lbs, even if he comes on a stone for the run he is potentially 6lbs ahead of the handicapper. Ruby said he is one hell of a horse and Nicholls applied his usual caveats.

My opinion is he wins well.

Its all well and good comparing him to Hurricane Fly but compare apples with apples. Hurricane Fly after 4 hurdle races and in April as a 5 year old had an or of 157. Yet you are prepared to write off Zarkandar, a french horse with 3 hurdle races and with an or of 154. Please explain.

Nulty

Price hucklebuck, price. 3/1 in the richest handicap in Britain and Ireland. I'm not saying I can't find anything else to take him on with, I'm saying that there are plenty who could beat him.

I'm saying forget about the champion hurdle for a moment. He's too short for that race. People are making an argument for the horses chances in the Betfair based on his price for the CH when he is priced up for that based on nothing but potential. Even with that in mind, he is likely to fall well below that potential in his prep run on Saturday.

Write off is a poor description of what I'm doing here. I'm pointing out the fallacy in expecting the horse to win the most competitive handicap hurdle outside of the festival on his first run for 10 months when its not even the race he's being aimed at. He may well be one hell of a horse but will he be that on the day? That's not the plan by any account.

In theory he should win if the expectation of fulfilling his potential is accurate but the conditions he is under approaching the race make me believe there is an even greater reason to stay clear at the price.

"He should win well" gives me the impression you think he should be evenn shorter

kiers47

ste2010 wrote: »

I think bog warrior is going in Naas
http://www.irishracing.com/v5newsitem?prid=58797

Fair enough my bad. It is slightly ridiculous so that some bookies are going 6/4 for him on sunday with antepost rules.

Themonkey

DARLAN

hucklebuck

Nulty wrote: »

Price hucklebuck, price. 3/1 in the richest handicap in Britain and Ireland. I'm not saying I can't find anything else to take him on with, I'm saying that there are plenty who could beat him.

I'm saying forget about the champion hurdle for a moment. He's too short for that race. People are making an argument for the horses chances in the Betfair based on his price for the CH when he is priced up for that based on nothing but potential. Even with that in mind, he is likely to fall well below that potential in his prep run on Saturday.

Write off is a poor description of what I'm doing here. I'm pointing out the fallacy in expecting the horse to win the most competitive handicap hurdle outside of the festival on his first run for 10 months when its not even the race he's being aimed at. He may well be one hell of a horse but will he be that on the day? That's not the plan by any account.

In theory he should win if the expectation of fulfilling his potential is accurate but the conditions he is under approaching the race make me believe there is an even greater reason to stay clear at the price.

"He should win well" gives me the impression you think he should be evenn shorter

I am backing him on the basis that after I saw his first run last year I smashed into him for the Triumph.

He looks a very smart horse on the upgrade and the fact Nicholls entered him in the Champion suggests he is high class.

Frankly the above is enough for me and I expect he has improved plenty. I think he will shorten up so I am getting stuck in.

If you want to back something else Rayas Star could be the value after Zarkandar.

As a side point do you not think when the market opened and he was 7/1 then Nicholls said he is not guaranteed to run and the next day he was 9/2 is quite suss.

I have Zarkandar at 10's in to his current price, 9/2 w/o HF and will have more before Saturday. When he hacks up I am putting all my winnings on Hurricane Fly. I call it my "**** the bookies up on day one of the festival system". I recommend it to you all

hucklebuck

Themonkey wrote: »

DARLAN

YES, HONEY :pac:

premierstone

knockostia wrote: »

Yes I know that its by no means certain, horse racing never is. I hate when people say horses are certs. Though these aren't handicaps, the horses involved are all consistent quality animals, also the e/w mitigates for a bit of risk.

Zarkandar is running in a handicap and two of the four horses are novices, not saying they wont all win but your logic seems flawed.

hucklebuck wrote: »

He looks a very smart horse on the upgrade and the fact Nicholls entered him in the Champion suggests he is high class.

Thats hardly an indication of anything, where else was the winner of last years Triumph going to end up?? Again not saying you are wrong about the high quality thing but using teh logic that he must be because hes entered in the champion is flawed.

Nulty

Like I said before hucklebuck, good luck. Not for me because of the prices outlined above. And I'm not directing those arguments specifically at you. Many people will use the argument "well if hes going to be competitive in the Champion he'd want to be winning this". That's assuming he will be competitive in the Champion when there's no evidence to say he will be. Mind you, I'd take that 7/1 now if it was offered but I still wouldn't be "steaming in".

Themonkey

DARLAN

Huntey

Themonkey wrote: »

DARLAN

Hasn't got a hope of winning off his mark.

hucklebuck

I know its no guarantee but Nicholls isnt one for entering horses in champion hurdle for the sake of it lately.

Think he has only entered celestial halo in last 5 years and he was rated 163, 168 when he ran in it. Not an exact science but I think its a decent signpost.

Johner

kiers47 wrote: »

Also slightly off topic but i dont want to make a new thread for just thurles tomorrow. Quarryvale looks a tad over priced in the opener considering he bolted up the last twice at this track all be it in lesser company and over a couple of furlongs less. 12/1 looks a steal though. Also Ruby/Mullins looks nailed on to take both beginners chases fairly poor fields and both horses stand out a mile. Not sure of prices but going on the exchanges 3/1 on the double is possible at some stage tomorrow.

Well done on Quarryvale, wins at 5/1.

Hulk Hands

Nulty wrote: »

Price hucklebuck, price. 3/1 in the richest handicap in Britain and Ireland.

The Grand National surely?

Nulty

Hulk Hands wrote: »

The Grand National surely?

Meant to type "hurdle"