Future Ryanair Plane Order

Zonda999

Was thinking about this a bit recently. What will Ryanair's next order be? I know theres beens stuff on here before about the agreement Ryanair came to with COMAC but that plane would not be available for another 4 years and seeing as Ryanair will be receiving the last of it's 737-800's this year, there are hardly not going to be getting any more deliverys for 4 year are they? Not that they have actually ordered any COMAC's anyway

Personally, i think they will eventually just get 737-MAX8's. Ryanair's whole low cost model is based on the the one plane type idea. Changing to the evolution of the 737-800 would probably make the most sense. Thinking about the cost of having to retrain pilots and all that goes with it..

Anyway what does anyone else think?

Cessna_Pilot

Norwegian placed what looks like a rather large order today, split between Airbus and Boeing. Rather interesting development.
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/market-talk-airbus-snares-norwegian-is-ryanair-in-the-wings-20120125-00637

Tenger

Zonda999 wrote: »

Personally, i think they will eventually just get 737-MAX8's. Ryanair's whole low cost model is based on the the one plane type idea. Changing to the evolution of the 737-800 would probably make the most sense. Thinking about the cost of having to retrain pilots and all that goes with it.

Yes the B737MAX seems to make the most sense.....

However once you get into very large fleets (FR have approx 275 at the moment) multiple types isn't that huge a deal.

Today Norwegian have ordered/options 100/100 B737MAX and 100/50 A320NEO. This is Europe's largest ever fleet order. Obviously they want the aircraft quickly so went with 2 types. I would guess that someone figured out that 100 of each still delivers enough commonality savings.
Air Berlin currently operate both B737 and A320 family. JetBlue use the A320 and E Jets.

If for example FR decided to go to the C919/A320NEO/Random other, they could introduce the new type in small numbers into their smaller bases. They have (I think) 40+ bases many of which are only 2-3 unit operations. Thus these bases could be converted without affecting the overall operation too much. This segregation of a new type might even allow them to focus more closely on its entry into service and any teething problems.

Snags to the FR fleet renewal plan could be:
-The C919 is untested with the company having no previous reputation. 2016 delivery.
-The A320NEO has 1256+ orders so is backlogged for at least 6 years.
-The C Series seems too small for the FR economics.
-The B737 MAX will enter service in 2017.

So currently FR have no public plan in place and any order will have a long lead in time. This on the surface seems to go against their previous policy of working their aircraft hard and selling them on relatively quickly.

Keep in mind that FR are a very smooth and shrewd operation so no doubt they have a plan in mind.

As Plowman points out: In their favour is the fact that they have a very young fleet overall so no immediate rush to replace them.
And with a 300 aircraft order in play Boeing will not want to lose FR. (Even with the alleged 40% discount they got in 2001)

Plowman

This post has been deleted.

Cessna_Pilot

Plowman wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

I think you're 100% right. The two companies will play cat and mouse over it for a good while to come but ultimately I can't see them not agreeing an order for the Max.

Zonda999

So, in that case, the COMAC thing was only part of that game.. Makes sense really, even though i would have thought they would have had something in place to fill that 4 year gap of no deliveries. That implies Ryanair is stopping its rapid expansion, which they haven't exactly publicised, sure they are already storing quite a few planes for the winter period, as well as selling on some of its undelivered planes

Tenger

Sorry to resurrect a thread but this is still running apparently:

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/ryanair-talks-with-comac-a-genuine-serious-commitment-376057/

Low-cost carrier Ryanair has reiterated that its discussions with Chinese airframer Comac on the potential development of a stretched 199-seat variant of its C919 twinjet are serious and could still yield an order for delivery in the 2018-20 timeframe.

Industry observers have been quick to brand Ryanair's flirtation with the Chinese as little more than a means of beating down incumbent aircraft supplier Boeing on price. The final delivery under its current order for 189-seat 737-800s is due to take place later this year.

L1011

I still can't see this being anything other than another few hundred 737NGs bought at a far higher comparative price than the last one, with O'Leary spinning to the end about how good a deal he got....

C919 = new, untested, could be delayed for god knows how long, if delivered on time could have a nightmare introduction or just not be up to the workload FR do. And Boeing know this, obviously.

All the other suggestions - MS21, CS1x0, A320 - bring their own issues. Untested, untested, totally new fleet type and won't get for much off list being the main ones.

b757

Not a chance Ryanair will order C919, id safely make a bet against it. Boeing did and will always buy from Boeing (That is of course ONLY IF Airbus give him a massive discount for a large order).

What Ryanair needs is a reliable aircraft that they can turn around within 30 minutes. The Comac C919 will be un-proven aircraft being built by a company who has no previous reputation (compared to the 737). This will most like cause delays and reliability issues, which will damage their on-time rep.
Good reliability and quick turn around times are the key to a business model of todays LCC's and Ryanair will be taking a very big risk in trying to keep their business model by buying the C919.

Plus the cost of re-training their pilots would be taken into condideration.

So, my guess that FR will order a low number (50ish) of 737-800's to replace the older ones they currently have in the fleet. And a high number 100-200+ of the 737MAX-8 to replace the then older 737-800's.

cabincrewifly

Ryanair have negotiated a deal with Boeing so at least there settled on price. Looks like a split order for B738NG + the B737Max. Some finer details are still being looked over. Airbus don't want anything to do with FR because of there bullying style tactics and massive discounts they are looking for which is unreasonable. Basically, Airbus don't need them. Ryanair got a massive discount when they placed the last order after 9/11 when Boeing were struggling. As mentioned above Comac may be all well and good, but the aircraft reliability hasn't been tested and also the retraining costs for crew to a new type.

Run_to_da_hills

O'Leary will have a cocktail of Airbuses of all shapes and sizes to contend with if his Aer Lingus take over bid is successful.

Tenger

Run_to_da_hills wrote: »

O'Leary will have a cocktail of Airbuses of all shapes and sizes to contend with if his Aer Lingus take over bid is successful.

No he won't. Very easy to sell them off or return to leasor. They wholly owned aircaft make a profit which can offset any early return fees. Any overall profit goes to FR Inc. (They are offering less than E700M for an company with over a billion Euro in cash, valuable LHR slots, at least 20 wholly owned aircraft, and strong brand allowing operations across the Atlantic, )

If FR get their hands on EI we will see them close down the majority of the EI shorthaul network ("to allow more competition on the routs ex Ireland") pretty sharpish.

Marcusm

Why the rush; oldest 738 is less than 10 years. maybe he should hold for the next downcycle or is he convinced hat he needs to offload the 738s now or there'll be no second hand market later?

Tenger

Marcusm wrote: »

Why the rush; oldest 738 is less than 10 years. maybe he should hold for the next downcycle or is he convinced hat he needs to offload the 738s now or there'll be no second hand market later?

Once the MAX and the NEO are rolling off the production lines the market for older NG's and A320's will plummet.

L1011

Marcusm wrote: »

Why the rush; oldest 738 is less than 10 years. maybe he should hold for the next downcycle or is he convinced hat he needs to offload the 738s now or there'll be no second hand market later?

This should have been the next downcycle now, but growth in Asia has ensured that it isn't. The risk of waiting further is that if there's a decline in Asia it could easily be met with an uptick in Europe/US. Could be quite a large amount of orders from the US to replace DC9 derivatives if fuel prices rise much more for instance.

murphym7

Tenger wrote: »

No he won't. Very easy to sell them off or return to leasor. They wholly owned aircaft make a profit which can offset any early return fees. Any overall profit goes to FR Inc. (They are offering less than E700M for an company with over a billion Euro in cash, valuable LHR slots, at least 20 wholly owned aircraft, and strong brand allowing operations across the Atlantic, )

If FR get their hands on EI we will see them close down the majority of the EI shorthaul network ("to allow more competition on the routs ex Ireland") pretty sharpish.

Off topic I know, but don't want to start a thread for this. Is it possible, if EI gets sold, that the new operator can sell off the Heathrow slots to a 3rd party? Could we be in a position where you can't fly to Heathrow from Ireland in the future? Or are the Dublin and Cork to Heathrow routes making enough money.

Tenger

murphym7 wrote: »

Off topic I know, but don't want to start a thread for this. Is it possible, if EI gets sold, that the new operator can sell off the Heathrow slots to a 3rd party? Could we be in a position where you can't fly to Heathrow from Ireland in the future? Or are the Dublin and Cork to Heathrow routes making enough money.

The slots 'belong' to EI, so EI control them. LHR allocate slots based on historical operations. EI is the 3rd largest slotholder in LHR (BD were 2nd but now BA has those, Virgin has a few more than EI)If you buy EI you own the slots. There was mention of a certain number of slots being ringfenced into some sort of holding company to ensure they are remain as DUB-LHR. However I doubt that will be workable.

So yes in theory if FR buy EI, and they reduce the EI network "to ensure competition is still available" then the EI DUB-LHR route could disappear. Howevr BA are now operating 4-5 times a day DUB-LHR. But why stop a profitable route? EI obviously make money off it so I doubt any new owner would want to stop it......unless they wanted to use the EI LHR slots for longhaul ex-LHR?

roundymac

Tenger wrote: »

.

So yes in theory if FR buy EI, and they reduce the EI network "to ensure competition is still available" then the EI DUB-LHR route could disappear. Howevr BA are now operating 4-5 times a day DUB-LHR. But why stop a profitable route? EI obviously make money off it so I doubt any new owner would want to stop it......unless they wanted to use the EI LHR slots for longhaul ex-LHR?

Or to make EI totally disappear.:mad:

Zonda999

And so nearly a year has passed since I made this thread and no sign of another order from Ryanair. I;m convinced though, it will still be a massive order for the 737MAX. Some interesting stuff I've read recently

http://www.ryanair.com/ie/news/ryanair-takes-delivery-of-2-new-boeing-737-800s-as-fleet-grows-to-305-aircraft

Ryanair wrote:

We remain ready to place a significant order for more aircraft if and when we can reach a sensible pricing agreement with one of the manufacturers

http://news.airwise.com/story/view/1355868613.html

Airwise wrote:

Airbus and Boeing have both accused each other of starting a price war this year. Actual prices are rarely disclosed but some analysts say aircraft are being offered at below half price.

This latest Pegasus order for the A320NEO will be great news for Ryanair, as it will show Boeing that a large Boeing user (~40 737NG) can and will switch to another manufacturers for the right money. I reckon Ryanair will continue to observe the market for the next few months or so. If Boeing continues to be on the backfoot in terms of the 737/A320 rivalry, Ryanair may well be able to hold them by the collar for a huge order of probably 200-300 aircraft. And, that article indicates airlines are getting the jets below half list price. I imagine Ryanair would want to go even further than that.

On another note, seeing as Ryanairs fleet is no longer expanding, does this mean the end of the Ryanair era of major growth. MOL likes to talk about capacity but surely Ryanair no longer have the capacity to expand anymore. Are we going to see Ryanairs passenger numbers level off or possibly fall in the next number of years?

b757

Zonda999 wrote: »

And so nearly a year has passed since I made this thread and no sign of another order from Ryanair. I;m convinced though, it will still be a massive order for the 737MAX. Some interesting stuff I've read recently

http://www.ryanair.com/ie/news/ryanair-takes-delivery-of-2-new-boeing-737-800s-as-fleet-grows-to-305-aircraft



http://news.airwise.com/story/view/1355868613.html



This latest Pegasus order for the A320NEO will be great news for Ryanair, as it will show Boeing that a large Boeing user (~40 737NG) can and will switch to another manufacturers for the right money. I reckon Ryanair will continue to observe the market for the next few months or so. If Boeing continues to be on the backfoot in terms of the 737/A320 rivalry, Ryanair may well be able to hold them by the collar for a huge order of probably 200-300 aircraft. And, that article indicates airlines are getting the jets below half list price. I imagine Ryanair would want to go even further than that.

On another note, seeing as Ryanairs fleet is no longer expanding, does this mean the end of the Ryanair era of major growth. MOL likes to talk about capacity but surely Ryanair no longer have the capacity to expand anymore. Are we going to see Ryanairs passenger numbers level off or possibly fall in the next number of years?

I read/heard somewhere that FR & Boeing have already agreed on a price, but Boeing has a issue with the way Ryanair sell aircraft relatively young (~10 years or so..).

If i were to guess, a mixed order will be announced. 100-150 NG's to replace older NG's before the max comes into service, and another 100-200 or so of the max (depending on how much they want to increase their fleet by).

I believe FR still has some options on the NG's available.

Turbine

Zonda999 wrote: »

And so nearly a year has passed since I made this thread and no sign of another order from Ryanair. I;m convinced though, it will still be a massive order for the 737MAX. Some interesting stuff I've read recently

http://www.ryanair.com/ie/news/ryanair-takes-delivery-of-2-new-boeing-737-800s-as-fleet-grows-to-305-aircraft



http://news.airwise.com/story/view/1355868613.html



This latest Pegasus order for the A320NEO will be great news for Ryanair, as it will show Boeing that a large Boeing user (~40 737NG) can and will switch to another manufacturers for the right money. I reckon Ryanair will continue to observe the market for the next few months or so. If Boeing continues to be on the backfoot in terms of the 737/A320 rivalry, Ryanair may well be able to hold them by the collar for a huge order of probably 200-300 aircraft. And, that article indicates airlines are getting the jets below half list price. I imagine Ryanair would want to go even further than that.

On another note, seeing as Ryanairs fleet is no longer expanding, does this mean the end of the Ryanair era of major growth. MOL likes to talk about capacity but surely Ryanair no longer have the capacity to expand anymore. Are we going to see Ryanairs passenger numbers level off or possibly fall in the next number of years?

I'd be very sceptical of Ryanair placing a massive order for new aircraft any time soon. Up to now part of their business model revolved around selling off relatively new, second-hand aircraft at higher prices than they originally paid for them. It has allowed them to generate extensive revenue while also minimising maintenance costs by having a very young fleet with an average age of just 3 years.

But Ryanair will never get the level of discounts they received from Boeing 10 years ago again, and will be paying close to full list price for either the A320NEO or 737MAX. So there'll be no money to be made from selling off relatively new second-hand aircraft because they won't be worth what they paid for them. So for that reason, and the fact that Ryanair are parking upwards of 80 aircraft up for the winter, I can't see Ryanair changing their fleet for a good few years at least. It makes more financial sense for them now to maintain the fleet they have than incur the cost of ordering a few hundred new aircraft at full list price, with the 80 unused aircraft in the winter being used for any future expansion.