Shops Surprisingly Busy.

Tora Bora

Well the after Christmas sales have started with a bang. Most bigger towns and cities reporting sales volumes up 20% or more on same day last year.
That's on top if a small volume increase over last year, on the pre Christmas sales.

Perhaps the oft turned corner, has in reality been turned this time.

The Scientician

Might be at least partially people putting forward purchases to avoid the VAT hike though. Or perhaps they're spending their Euros while the currency still exists.

avalon68

Tora Bora wrote: »

Well the after Christmas sales have started with a bang. Most bigger towns and cities reporting sales volumes up 20% or more on same day last year.
That's on top if a small volume increase over last year, on the pre Christmas sales.

Perhaps the oft turned corner, has in reality been turned this time.

This time last year I was "iced in" to my house - as were many others, so I wouldnt say we have turned the corner quite yet

BeeDI

avalon68 wrote: »

This time last year I was "iced in" to my house - as were many others, so I wouldnt say we have turned the corner quite yet

Ice or no ice, this Christmas economic activity well up on last year. More cash, for the coffers. Simple.
Good for confidince. May encourage a little more spending in spring.

FreudianSlippers

IMO there has always been a confidence problem. Our government running around saying the sky is falling did absolutely nothing to help.

BeeDI

Irish Times, reporting 50% increase here http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2011/1227/1224309523353.html

No doubt, most boardsies on here, plus Vincent Brown and Gurdiev and the likes, will find a way to say its just government take over of the media, with resulting propaganda. Better watch out for statements in the Indo, referring to Enda Kenny, as " our great leader", etc.

avalon68

BeeDI wrote: »

Ice or no ice, this Christmas economic activity well up on last year. More cash, for the coffers. Simple.
Good for confidince. May encourage a little more spending in spring.

I disagree - last Christmas was extremely quiet for traders due to the poor weather. Increased spending this year, while good, most likely does not bring us anywhere near the amount of spending required to count as turning the corner.

washman3

Tora Bora wrote: »

Well the after Christmas sales have started with a bang. Most bigger towns and cities reporting sales volumes up 20% or more on same day last year.
That's on top if a small volume increase over last year, on the pre Christmas sales.

Perhaps the oft turned corner, has in reality been turned this time.

You working for the Government by any chance??
Wait until Feb/March and you'll see the "corner" we've just turned.!!
FYI i was in a pub last night and the crowd was up 300% on last year.
But last year most were snowed in and couldnt travel.
Time for a reality check.

hatrickpatrick

I called a prediction months ago, which was the following:
We have falsely turned the corner so many effing times, that when we ACTUALLY turn it, no one is going to notice.

Not saying that means a yes to this question, just pointing out that Ireland's recovery is like the boy who cried wolf. We're not going to believe it when it happens until it's been completely vindicated by the media.
That, in my view, is a dangerous way of thinking - but when you think about it, people's unquestioning acceptance of propaganda was largely what got us into this mess in the first place, so it shouldn't surprise anyone when that also hinders our recovery.

tl;dr: People won't believe we're recovering until "trusted" sources tell us we are. The same "trusted" sources who told us our economy was the best in the world and we would have a soft landing, etc.

Occupy Dame Street had an excellent slogan on a banner last time I was there, which said:

"If you want to find out what's happening out there, turn OFF the news."

Going Forward

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I called a prediction months ago, which was the following:
We have falsely turned the corner so many effing times, that when we ACTUALLY turn it, no one is going to notice.

Not saying that means a yes to this question, just pointing out that Ireland's recovery is like the boy who cried wolf. We're not going to believe it when it happens until it's been completely vindicated by the media.
That, in my view, is a dangerous way of thinking - but when you think about it, people's unquestioning acceptance of propaganda was largely what got us into this mess in the first place, so it shouldn't surprise anyone when that also hinders our recovery.

tl;dr: People won't believe we're recovering until "trusted" sources tell us we are. The same "trusted" sources who told us our economy was the best in the world and we would have a soft landing, etc.

Occupy Dame Street had an excellent slogan on a banner last time I was there, which said:

"If you want to find out what's happening out there, turn OFF the news."

We can now depend on the EC and IMF to let us know when we have turned the relevant corner.

p1akuw47h5r3it

I work in retail, our company this week has had a record week in terms of turnover and sales for the week. One of the reasons for this is that Christmas was at the end of the week instead of the middle or start . But it's also definitely due to more people shopping and spending money.

Does this mean we have turned a corner? No, however it's a good start.

Atilathehun

The country may be bust, and a lot of people unemployed and in negative equity, etc. However an awful lot if people are not bust, not unemployed, not in negative equity. These people have been saving like mad for past four years or so, and are left wondering if their savings in euros are safe. That fear factor, added to austerity fatigue, is a damn good incentive to say to hell with it, let's spend a bit.
I think this sector of the economy, who have been driving our very high savings rate, will start to save less and spend more this year. Won't get us around the corner, but might get us up to the traffic lights at the corner.

hmmm

The confidence is slowly returning that things are about as low as they're going to get for the ordinary middle class. The economy stopped plummeting about a year and a half ago, it was only a matter of time - despite the best efforts of those shouting doom and gloom and catastrophe.

Chucky the tree

hmmm wrote: »

The confidence is slowly returning that things are about as low as they're going to get for the ordinary middle class. The economy stopped plummeting about a year and a half ago, it was only a matter of time - despite the best efforts of those shouting doom and gloom and catastrophe.

Keep clutching those straws. There is still a long way down to go.

gandalf

hmmm wrote: »

The confidence is slowly returning that things are about as low as they're going to get for the ordinary middle class. The economy stopped plummeting about a year and a half ago, it was only a matter of time - despite the best efforts of those shouting doom and gloom and catastrophe.

I am afraid that you could be very very wrong here. Even in the UK they are predicting some very large casualties in the retailing sector and given the number of UK multinationals that we are exposed to in this area there will be a major knock on effect. The head of retail excellence was on Newstalk just before Christmas saying that he is aware of several large chains that are planning on "announcements" in the New Year.

So unfortunately we have not seen the bottom yet and in the unlikely event that ECB rates start to rise (which I do not see happened in at least 3-4 years) then the bottom is going to get very deep indeed.

n97 mini

All those increments are burning holes in people's pockets! ;)

johnnyskeleton

Atilathehun wrote: »

The country may be bust, and a lot of people unemployed and in negative equity, etc. However an awful lot if people are not bust, not unemployed, not in negative equity. These people have been saving like mad for past four years or so, and are left wondering if their savings in euros are safe. That fear factor, added to austerity fatigue, is a damn good incentive to say to hell with it, let's spend a bit.
I think this sector of the economy, who have been driving our very high savings rate, will start to save less and spend more this year. Won't get us around the corner, but might get us up to the traffic lights at the corner.

I'd agree with you about the existence of such a group of people, but I disagree that spending your savings because of lack of confidence is the euro will bring us closer to economic recovery. The opposite in fact, it is a sign of failing confidence in money (ie the economy) and a hoarding of physical wealth, and it also hits the banks as more spending = less saving in this instance.

Solair

From just talking to a lot of my friends and family, it's more like that people have a sense that the doom and gloom has gone on for so long they're sick listening to it and are quite intent on going out and spending a few quid if they have it handy.

I don't think that real people are quite as rational about money as economists would have you believe. There is a lot of saving going on, but I do think that people eventually develop recession-burnout and just stop taking in negative news stories.

I mean, yes the economy's screwed, the Euro might not be around in a few months, who knows, but I think many of us have come to the conclusion that it's been dragging on for so long that it will probably somehow stumble on and come out the other side. So far, the dire consequences have only been about 10% as dire as were predicted. Yes, unemployment's up, but no we're not back to Angela's Ashes.

Also, the way the recession has hit the Irish economy is very different depending on what your source of income is and where you live.

If you were involved in the bubble i.e. property, you're either on the dole, back at university/retraining or have emigrated. That means builders, tradespeople, architects, estate agents, bankers and even aspects of the legal profession.

If you're involved in the public sector you felt a bit of a pinch, but it hasn't been horrendously terrible to be fair.

If you're in the IT, biotech, phrama, electronics, food industry or any area of the economy that's buoyant, you're probably still doing relatively OK.

Also, the regional spread of impact of the recession's very different. Industrial areas like Cork for example, seem to be quite prosperous, while areas of rural Ireland that briefly peaked during the bubble due to an abundance of construction jobs are in dire straits.

It's also worth remembering that last Christmas was dire for retailers because of some of the worst weather seen in over a century. The christmas shopping figures last year were way down, but it was largely because people couldn't physically go shopping at all.

The other factor that I think is a little different in Ireland to say Greece or Spain is that our growth levels during the boom times were astronomically high. So, there was ~10% growth per year. That left us with a lot of ability to contract without really feeling it that badly.

If you were flat-lining at 1%-2% growth per year and then fell back >10%, you'd feel it very badly as is the case in a lot of the other countries that are in trouble.

I just get the sense that at the moment we've parallel economies going on here - i.e. those who were in construction/construction related bubble jobs and those who were in non-bubble parts of the economy.

However, the debt burden, if not written-down somehow is definitely going to flatten us eventually. So far, I am seeing absolutely no evidence of anyone doing anything remotely sensible about it either, so I suppose I might as well spend rather than have my cash assets taxed to pay off idiotic gambling institutions, laughably referred to as banks, debts.

hmmm

Solair wrote: »

However, the debt burden, if not written-down somehow is definitely going to flatten us eventually. So far, I am seeing absolutely no evidence of anyone doing anything remotely sensible about it either, so I suppose I might as well spend rather than have my cash assets taxed to pay off idiotic gambling institutions, laughably referred to as banks, debts.

What figures are you basing your assertion that the debt burden will "flatten us eventually"? On my figures, it won't even be as onerous as debt was in the 80s.

I thought the rest of your post was excellent.

Solair

Well, it won't be that bad, ifwe can let inflation happen.

I think ultimately, that's what is going to happen. The ECB will have to start behaving like a proper central bank or it will cease to exist when as the Euro will have to be dissolved.

The Germans will bitch and moan about it, but they have to face the reality that the Euro is not the Deutsche Mark and that it is supposed to be reflective of the entire Eurozone, not just Germany. So, it's grossly over-valued and too strong at present. It really should be somewhere more like on parity with the US$, or maybe just a little ahead.

So, fingers crossed a bit of realism rather than endless nonsense about moral hazards kicks in.

We've a choice here, either protect the banks or protect almost 60 years of European social democracy and high standards of living and stability.

The current status quo in the banking system is just unsustainable, unhealthy and totally counterproductive from a social point of view and I really do not understand how all these supposed social-democrats in Europe and the Obama administration are failing so miserably to do anything to bring it back into line with something that might be socially useful!

hmmm

Solair wrote: »

So, fingers crossed a bit of realism rather than endless nonsense about moral hazards kicks in.

Why should German, French, Dutch, Finnish, Austrian pensioners have to suffer to bail out the Irish who built an economy on selling houses to each other, Greeks who retire at 50, or rich Italians who don't believe in paying tax? We are still one of the richest nations (by head) in Europe, we just don't pay enough tax, we pay public servants too high a salary and we have a hugely generous social welfare system we can't afford - surely the first thing we should be doing is sorting out the ridiculous way we spend 10% more than the country earns?

Debasing a currency will not "maintain high living standards", it's a desperate measure to try and gain a competitive advantage when the real economy isn't competitive enough. It's a very real tax on savers, pensioners and anyone who has a fixed income.

The Euro certainly doesn't seem to be over-valued, German exports are booming. The markets don't seem hugely worried about the future of the currency, the Euro has dropped by only a small amount over the past year.

We've a choice here, either protect the banks or protect almost 60 years of European social democracy and high standards of living and stability.

The banking system is partly responsible for that high standard of living. The fiat money system is partly responsible also. There is no system on offer which has ever even come close to offering equivalent standards of living, unless you're one of the Kim or Castro direct family.

Sand

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I called a prediction months ago, which was the following:
We have falsely turned the corner so many effing times, that when we ACTUALLY turn it, no one is going to notice.

I've got a prediction too - if you keep on claiming a corner has been turned, one of these days, you'll be right.

The "optimists" have been wrong for over three years running. But one shining day, they'll be right. Then they'll show us. In the meantime, realists will have to work on reparing the damage.

Sand

hmmm wrote: »

Why should German, French, Dutch, Finnish, Austrian pensioners have to suffer to bail out the Irish who built an economy on selling houses to each other, Greeks who retire at 50, or rich Italians who don't believe in paying tax?

Well, leaving aside why Irish pensioners have to suffer to bail out the banks, I agree, they shouldnt. They dont want to. And more than likely, they wont.

So then we are left with default, organised or disorganised. The German, French, Dutch, Finnish and Austrian pensioners can suffer to bail out their own banks. No need to involve us in the moralising.

Solair

hmmm wrote: »

Why should German, French, Dutch, Finnish, Austrian pensioners have to suffer to bail out the Irish who built an economy on selling houses to each other, Greeks who retire at 50, or rich Italians who don't believe in paying tax?
.

Possibly because their equally insane and greedy banks lent their pensions and deposits out to high risk banks that were directly engaged in the mortgage bubble without checking anything because all they saw were profit margins.

The German and other "sensible" European countries' banks were angels at home and total risk-taking lunatics abroad. Deutsche Bank's up to its neck in the US disaster for example and was one of the key players in the derivatives mess. Hypo Real Estate Group (Best named bank ever!)... the list goes on and on.

Almost no country in the EU comes out of this showing that it was capable of regulating a banking system.

coolshannagh28

Ive been a bear on the Irish economy for 10 years ever since we let wages and costs overheat . I cannot really see much change in these factors so I am still pessimistic. However it seems that any small increase in spending could create a wall of confidence and I am hopeful that all those savers will do their "patriotic duty"