Will the 'small country' be us, if this guy is right?

NIMAN

Piece from RTE.ie

RBS chairman sees "small country" leaving euro

British lender Royal Bank of Scotland's chairman says he expects a "small country" to leave the euro zone, telling Sky News this scenario would put more strain on the world's banking system.

"I think it is likely that one country, a small country, will drop out," Philip Hampton said in a pre-recorded programme scheduled to be broadcast later today.

''It could be any of them because I think that some of these things will be driven by political events as much as by economic circumstances and social unrest, and all of those sorts of things. But I think there is a very good chance that one country will fall out," he said


Perhaps we will have a referendum, Vote 'NO', vote 'NO' when asked for the 2nd time, then we will be asked to leave?

Elmo

NIMAN wrote: »

Piece from RTE.ie

RBS chairman sees "small country" leaving euro

British lender Royal Bank of Scotland's chairman says he expects a "small country" to leave the euro zone, telling Sky News this scenario would put more strain on the world's banking system.

"I think it is likely that one country, a small country, will drop out," Philip Hampton said in a pre-recorded programme scheduled to be broadcast later today.

''It could be any of them because I think that some of these things will be driven by political events as much as by economic circumstances and social unrest, and all of those sorts of things. But I think there is a very good chance that one country will fall out," he said


Perhaps we will have a referendum, Vote 'NO', vote 'NO' when asked for the 2nd time, then we will be asked to leave?

I was told there was no mechanism for any country to either be asked to leave or to leave of their own accord.

Maybe San Marino or the Vatican or Monaco or Andorra!

washman3

Germany and France are the "big" countries.
Everyone else is small.!!!

later12

Far better to save a small country at great cost than to allow a small country to leave at an even greater cost.

If anyone leaves the Euro, we set up a self fulfilling prophecy that someone will follow, as investors scramble to avoid the "new bad boy" in the class.

Having said that, I think the RBS Chairman is probably correct.

thebman

Presumably he means Greece. We aren't even near the level of discontent with the Euro that they are at.

opinion guy

Yeah deffo this is reference to Greece

Mr.Micro

thebman wrote: »

Presumably he means Greece. We aren't even near the level of discontent with the Euro that they are at.

We are struggling to survive in the comfort zone of the Eurozone......I dread to think what would happen or how we would survive outside the zone, at least in the state we are in now? I do not think it will be Ireland that leaves.

thebman

Mr.Micro wrote: »

We are struggling to survive in the comfort zone of the Eurozone......I dread to think what would happen or how we would survive outside the zone, at least in the state we are in now? I do not think it will be Ireland that leaves.

Wouldn't stop people wanting out if the austerity gets too bad and someone tells them it will all get better if we leave the Euro.

People tend to believe in magic beans rather than try to understand facts.

Mr.Micro

thebman wrote: »

Wouldn't stop people wanting out if the austerity gets too bad and someone tells them it will all get better if we leave the Euro.

People tend to believe in magic beans rather than try to understand facts.

I agree, and people need to face up to the facts. Who will pay if we as taxpayers do not? I reckon things would be an awful lot worse outside the Eurozone and money would be impossible to raise and we would see austerity as lesser evil in comparison.

hmmm

Greece probably doesn't have the ability to endure massive internal devaluation and recover. Portugal is dubious because their exporting industry is weak. We have the ability.

washman3

hmmm wrote: »

Greece probably doesn't have the ability to endure massive internal devaluation and recover. Portugal is dubious because their exporting industry is weak. We have the ability.

Forgive my ignorance, but what "ability" exactly do we have?
Can you elaborate?

hmmm

washman3 wrote: »

Forgive my ignorance, but what "ability" exactly do we have?
Can you elaborate?

The ability to internally devalue by reducing spending and lowering wage costs (which we are 2/3 of the way through), and the ability to grow by exporting. Greece has too big a deficit and is used to devaluing their currency as a quick fix, there are some doubts as to whether the Portugese economy has the ability to generate real growth.

[Jackass]

With the inevitable fiscal intergration, there will no longer be "small countries", just one super state, in all but name, for which debt sharing will be the long term solution. Which makes sense, as the "borrowed" money by one country is paying the banks of the country it borrowed from...

A country is going to "leave" the union alright, but more than likely happily left behind, and that'll be the UK.

He is clearly talking about Greece, but at this point they wont leave the Euro, and I don't think they were ever in a position to do so. It's not as seamless as people might think, and a country in crisis can go out on their own and print money 24 / 7 and it'll be worth a fraction of its value before they can get it out the door.

From a realistic point of view, and taking my Irish man hat off, of course Germany and France are right in all of this, that furter intergration needs to be made and fiscal policies need to be alligned, essentially moving towards total intergration into a single Governed state, and it may not suit "us", with 1% of the population of the E.U., but we're hardly in a position to be dictating terms when we're largely irrelivant and absolutely reliant.

Voodoo_rasher

Montenegro uses the euro believe it or not!

opinion guy

Voodoo_rasher wrote: »

Montenegro uses the euro believe it or not!

As does Monaco and Andorra. But they can't be kicked out because they aren't in the eurozone. On the flip side they can merrily decide to use dollar's or Yen in the morning if they want to, although shopping across border would become a pain

coolshannagh28

hmmm wrote: »

The ability to internally devalue by reducing spending and lowering wage costs (which we are 2/3 of the way through), and the ability to grow by exporting. Greece has too big a deficit and is used to devaluing their currency as a quick fix, there are some doubts as to whether the Portugese economy has the ability to generate real growth.

We have tried to devalue internally but there is no evidence that it has worked we have reduced spending but wage costs have remained pretty similar ,export growth is not compensating for the reduction in the domestic economy therefore our growth rates are now negative .The sums are not adding up something will have to give