King George VI 2011

Nulty

Kauto Star still may not turn up with Master Minded in the race. I personally think he won't win it but I wouldn't lay him. Long Run will be primed and the betting is fair as it stands. There was a small move on Somersby recently into 12s from 16s. Thats probably in expectation of a win in the Peterborough tomorrow. If he doesn't win that you can expect his price to lengthen sharply. Captain Chris is one I still can decide upon. Your taking a risk not only on a horse stepping up for the first time but also on a horse that has had colds and missed engagements. Apart from Somersby, the prices look fairly fixed with no real betting angle. Diamond Harry has had fook all racing for 12 months. Normally excellent on his return he seemed to travel well before emptying at Haydock, is that just how good he is? Will Weird Al line up and make the race even deeper than it is already?

Can Kauto repeat his Betfair Chase win? Was that his big day? Do you have faith in Hobbs to get Captain Chris ready? Is Master Minded over priced and will he get the trip? Same goes for Somersby. Could Diamond Harry improve on his Betfair run? Is there a snowballs chance in hell that the winner will come from somewhere else?

TheMilkyPirate

Nulty wrote: »

Kauto Star still may not turn up with Master Minded in the race. I personally think he won't win it but I wouldn't lay him. Long Run will be primed and the betting is fair as it stands. There was a small move on Somersby recently into 12s from 16s. Thats probably in expectation of a win in the Peterborough tomorrow. If he doesn't win that you can expect his price to lengthen sharply. Captain Chris is one I still can decide upon. Your taking a risk not only on a horse stepping up for the first time but also on a horse that has had colds and missed engagements. Apart from Somersby, the prices look fairly fixed with no real betting angle. Diamond Harry has had fook all racing for 12 months. Normally excellent on his return he seemed to travel well before emptying at Haydock, is that just how good he is? Will Weird Al line up and make the race even deeper than it is already?

Can Kauto repeat his Betfair Chase win? Was that his big day? Do you have faith in Hobbs to get Captain Chris ready? Is Master Minded over priced and will he get the trip? Same goes for Somersby. Could Diamond Harry improve on his Betfair run? Is there a snowballs chance in hell that the winner will come from somewhere else?

Yeah, Long run! :pac:

johnny_cash

I think long run is a dead cert to win the king george and will be placing the biggest bet i have ever placed in my life that long run wins I am a huge kauto star fan but i'm going with the head over the heart on this one.

Colonel Sanders

Kauto was primed for Haydock, while it was still an excellent performance I'm not sure I'd trust him to put 2 G1 performances together in a row.

Master Minded might not stay (my gut feeling is 2m 4 is his trip these days but could get 3m at Kempton) and is pretty inconsistent these days.

Long Run obviously the one to beat and the form or either his King George or Gold Cup win would probably be good enough here

As for Captain Chris, if the horse is ok within himself I'd trust Hobbs 100% to get him there. If he gets there I can see him starting 2nd fav possibly. I think the trip will be fine, just a case of if he can mix it with the big boys out of novice company. Interestingly Timeform put him up in the ante post section of their 50 to follow.

I've been banging this drum for a long time but I'd love to see Noble Prince run in this. Perfect point for a chaser stepping up to 3m & I think he could be the one to give Long Run a headache or be best of the rest if Long Run runs to last year's form. Entered at Leopardstown though so I assume that's plan A

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Kauto Star still may not turn up with Master Minded in the race. I personally think he won't win it but I wouldn't lay him. Long Run will be primed and the betting is fair as it stands. There was a small move on Somersby recently into 12s from 16s. Thats probably in expectation of a win in the Peterborough tomorrow. If he doesn't win that you can expect his price to lengthen sharply. Captain Chris is one I still can decide upon. Your taking a risk not only on a horse stepping up for the first time but also on a horse that has had colds and missed engagements. Apart from Somersby, the prices look fairly fixed with no real betting angle. Diamond Harry has had fook all racing for 12 months. Normally excellent on his return he seemed to travel well before emptying at Haydock, is that just how good he is? Will Weird Al line up and make the race even deeper than it is already?

Can Kauto repeat his Betfair Chase win? Was that his big day? Do you have faith in Hobbs to get Captain Chris ready? Is Master Minded over priced and will he get the trip? Same goes for Somersby. Could Diamond Harry improve on his Betfair run? Is there a snowballs chance in hell that the winner will come from somewhere else?

baraca wrote: »

Yeah, Long run! :pac:

I agree he should be clear favorite and I totally expect him to run to his best. He ought to win. I don't think there are any questions to be answered with Long Run.

You think he'll win too do you?

UrbanSea

I think there are still questions about him. He jumped horribly at Haydock I thought.

TheMilkyPirate

Nulty wrote: »

I agree he should be clear favorite and I totally expect him to run to his best. He ought to win. I don't think there are any questions to be answered with Long Run.

You think he'll win too do you?

It was a tongue in cheek comment at the fact you hadn't mentioned him in the last paragraph.

While I do see him as the most likely winner, There are still questions to be answered for me and if he starts any shorter than the 6/4 available now I won't be a backer. As US said he dragged through a lot of fences at Haydock which cost him quite a few lengths.

If I was to oppose him with anybody I'll be honest and say it would be Kauto star. He may be in decline but i don't think to the extent some people believe. He won the jnwine last year and then finished 3rd in the king george and the gold cup, Then comes back this year and beats his gold cup conqueror by 8 lengths. If it was any other horse in the line up we'd be putting him forward as a serious contender. I'd have to give him one more chance after being so impressive at Haydock.

Nulty

Kauto confirmed, Master Minded confirmed, no hiccups yet for the others apart from the news that Weird Al won't be going to Kempton but that was no surprise. Somersby is back into 12s even after a slightly disappointing result in the Peterborough Chase. Although Knight said it would not be his day before the race it makes it even harder to consider him for this race yet the money still comes.

Long Run is still 6/4 with the Irish firms but thats gone with the rest of them. Anyone confident enough to take it yet? I'm still interested in Diamond Harry but I'm waiting for some indication that he is on track for the race. Its only a couple of weeks away.

Jayo11780

Captain Chris E/W for me...
7's & 8's at the minute... Hobbs reckons he'll have him primed for this one, we'll wait and see. Lumped on Long Run the last day and normally would lump on it again this time but i'm looking for a little bit of value!

Fancy Raya star (12/1) & Via Gallilei (14/1) as the value e/w bets in the Ladbroke tomorrow.

theaceofspies

This is buidling up to be some race.... one great horse (Kauto Star) and 2 horses with the potential to join him on that panteneon. Hope they all make the line up in one piece. Imagine the 3 of them jumping the last together!

Huntey

theaceofspies wrote: »

This is buidling up to be some race.... one great horse (Kauto Star) and 2 horses with the potential to join him on that panteneon. Hope they all make the line up in one piece. Imagine the 3 of them jumping the last together!

Won't be happening, I don't even think Master Minded will be ahead of Somersby.

klairondavis

Took the 8/1 antepost about Captain Chris this morning so I get the three places even if there are further NRs. His prep hasn't been ideal but I think he has been crying out for three miles. He was flat out all the way in the Arkle and stormed up the hill. Stayed really well at Punchestown too. With question marks over the market principals it looks an ideal e/w race and Captain Chris is the least exposed and the one real potential improver.

Long Run clearly has an engine but his jumping at Haydock was diabolical. I'd have absolutely no faith in the jockey over an obstacle and would fear that he'll panic should the horse jump poorly early on. Never thought of Master Minded as a 20F+ horse. Can't see him staying and I'm not sure he's anywhere near the horse he was these days anywhere. Diamond Harry and Somersby are not Grade 1 performers.

Kauto Star is a legend and the best since Desert Orchid but I think he's short enough even allowing for his Haydock heroics. I'd happily see him win but he won't carry any of my hard earned.

sonnky

Lads Somersby real interestin at 12/1 there abouts.

ste2010

Would anyone be of the opinion that masterminded is gonna take off like a rocket set the pace hoping long run can't cope with the speed and jumping setting it up for kauto!? Can't see masterminded getting the trip at all..don't ask why..just agree. Captain Chris is definitely interesting

Huntey

sonnky wrote: »

Lads Somersby real interestin at 12/1 there abouts.

Somersby will always find one too good. I think he has temperament issues to be honest but he could run a big race.

ste2010 wrote: »

Would anyone be of the opinion that masterminded is gonna take off like a rocket set the pace hoping long run can't cope with the speed and jumping setting it up for kauto!? Can't see masterminded getting the trip at all..don't ask why..just agree. Captain Chris is definitely interesting

It would make no sense whatsoever considering Golan Way is in the race.

ForeverYoung90

Forget lumping on Long Run!!:rolleyes:
50e e/w on Kauto Star @10/3
win:208.33 euro profit
place:lose about 9 yoyos
back the field: :mad:

hucklebuck

Plenty of talk about Long Run going through a few fences but he has one hell of an engine, he brushed through plenty in the Gold Cup and won it as he liked.

I think it will be between Captain Chris and Long Run, would not be crestfallen if Kauto wins but I think it will be very difficult to have him in the condition he was in for the Betfair.

Bet365 NRNB for King George, Long Run 5/4, Captain Chris 7/1.

Looking at a fourfold, Long Run, Grands Crus, Big Zeb and Binocular/ Overturn. Any thoughts on this?

UrbanSea

I don't like Long Run enough to back him Stephen's Day. I actually fancy Kauto, he was so good the last time out.
Reminds me of Treasure Beach before the Irish Derby. Had finished ahead of Carlton House at Epsom but everyone was making excuses for him and how he'd easily reverse the result. Didn't happen,all it did was allow TB go off a ridiculous price of 9/2

RichieLawlor

Long Runs record around Kempton is absolutely awesome. He smashed them in the Feltham and similar last year in the KG.

I think he will win, and the price is fair I think on balance. ( he won't beat the 2008 CC Master Minded or the 2009 Kauto Star, but I don't think those horse exist any more)

Obviously people have more of an affection for MM and KS over Long Run but that shouldn't sway you.

Brianderunner

Long run for me yeah. Won't be backing him though, i'd be worried about his jumping and one last hurrah from Kauto.

Somersby has zero chance of winning. Running on through beaten horses ala Madison du Berlais is his best hope of a place. Diamond Harry has never been top class, well over a stone behind long run. I just cant have Master Minded either, Kauto was as good as him over 2 mls at his peak (controversial maybe) and I cant see MM staying. Captain Chris adds intrigue no doubt but its a stretch to see him winning it.

windy bee

Hold on a second now, If we strip it back to basics, Long Run is a big old-fashioned French chaser. He is still a six year old , by Cadoudal, who also sired Big Buck's and Fadalko. He is more than this though, Long Run is an exceptional horse. Including his early career in France he has recorded twelve wins from nineteen starts. He has never finished out of the first three in a race.He won a competitive Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, he improves as the season goes on. If we examine his first run over the past two seasons it appears he takes time to warm to the task.

In the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham last year he was slow in the air but still managed third. Against an ageless Kauto Star in the Betfair Chase last month, Long Run was prone to more jumping errors, particularly in the latter half of the race. It was as if he was unsettled by the pace and fluidity of the great Kauto.

Going into next Sunday's race, Long Run is unbeaten at Kempton. His win as a novice in the Grade 1 Feltham Novices' Chase was far from flawless. He jumped left and hit some fences but still cantered to a fourteen length victory. Last year at the same track he again made some early mistakes but his jockey, Sam Waley-Cohen, settled him and he had the race won in a couple of strides three fences out. Even more impressive to note is that his two runs at Kempton have a combined winning distance of 26 lengths.

Trainer Nicky Henderson was interviewed recently and noted "Kauto Star was better and fitter than us the last day but The King George is the primary target for the first half of the season. Long Run has run twice at Kempton and was outstanding in the Feltham and outstanding in the King George. There's no reason why he won't be outstanding again"."

Currently available at odds of 13/8, Long Run is a short price to follow up on
last year's victory. Given that half the field are rank outsiders at big prices, his task is made that little bit easier. There is a doubt as to whether Master Minded will stay the three miles at Kempton and his three runs over 2m 4f have resulted in a first, second and third. There is also the niggling doubt that Kauto Star might have peaked against Long Run

The race does revolve around Long Run however and he will be very hard to beat. Nicky Henderson has stated that the gelding has grown over the summer and will be primed for the race, even more so than last year.

I have maximum faith in the horse to win the King George for the second year in a row.

Nulty

All you folks who will be having a bet on KS, don't worry, I won't be so he will have some sort of chance!

Long Run wins this by 4l imo. Kauto 2nd and Somersby/MM another 4l back in 3rd.

Colonel Sanders

Nulty wrote: »

All you folks who will be having a bet on KS, don't worry, I won't be so he will have some sort of chance!

Long Run wins this by 4l imo. Kauto 2nd and Somersby/MM another 4l back in 3rd.

No Captain Chris?

I don't like Somersby at all tbh. If Captain Chris had a better preparation I'd have him as the threat to Long Run. Although Johnson was on ATR Tuesday & reported him to have galloped & schooled well

Slattsy

Long Run to win quite easily and I may just go for a winning distance bet of 8 lengths or more for a bigger price.

At 5/4 I can't afford to be smashing into him hard.

Panrich

All those eulogising about Long Run at Kempton should bear in mind that Kauto Star has put up some of the best performances by any horse over this course and distance. If there are excuses for last season, then Kauto may still be up to seeing off the new kid on the block.
At Haydock too, it looked as though Long Run was tapped for speed and Kempton is more of a speed track than Haydock. Time will tell and it is a fascinating race to look forward to.

windy bee

Long Run was tapped for speed the last day because he wasn't fit.

Far from being the "new kid on the block" he is already a Gold Cup winner, hardly a hot novice and I think he has the potential to be even greater than Kauto.

Fascinating race but Long Run has well and truly arrived and I can see him winning on the bridle

RichieLawlor

Long Run doesn't have the speed of Kauto Star, what he can do is keep galloping at his own pace for longer. He outstayed them in the Gold Cup. He is an exceptional horse for 6 in fairness. I think he will win.

Don't underestimate Somersby, I've been waiting 3 years to see him over 3 miles.

RichieLawlor

windy bee wrote: »

Long Run was tapped for speed the last day because he wasn't fit.

Far from being the "new kid on the block" he is already a Gold Cup winner, hardly a hot novice and I think he has the potential to be even greater than Kauto.

Fascinating race but Long Run has well and truly arrived and I can see him winning on the bridle

He won't win on the bridle and he won't over the course of his career be better than Kauto. Kauto at his peak was in a different league to Long Run ( so was Denman fwiw) but that doesn't mean Long Run won't be top drawer, he already is so no need for the hyperbole

Nulty

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

No Captain Chris?

I don't like Somersby at all tbh. If Captain Chris had a better preparation I'd have him as the threat to Long Run. Although Johnson was on ATR Tuesday & reported him to have galloped & schooled well

He surely has a chance but if a gun was put to my head, thats the result I'd predict. Its last chance saloon for Somersby, don't think I could back him again if he doesn't run well here.

windy bee

RichieLawlor wrote: »

He won't win on the bridle and he won't over the course of his career be better than Kauto. Kauto at his peak was in a different league to Long Run ( so was Denman fwiw) but that doesn't mean Long Run won't be top drawer, he already is so no need for the hyperbole

When Kauto Star was 6 he won a Tingle Creek and a King George.

Long Run is 6 now and he has won a Gold Cup and a King George.

And I'm the one exaggerating.

RichieLawlor

windy bee wrote: »

When Kauto Star was 6 he won a Tingle Creek and a King George.

Long Run is 6 now and he has won a Gold Cup and a King George.

And I'm the one exaggerating.

Kauto was winning Grade 1s at all kinds of distances against better opposition that what LR has faced, ie declining ageing chasers. IMO LR gold cup has been rated too highly

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

He won't win on the bridle and he won't over the course of his career be better than Kauto. Kauto at his peak was in a different league to Long Run ( so was Denman fwiw) but that doesn't mean Long Run won't be top drawer, he already is so no need for the hyperbole

Who says its hyperbole?? Long Run is rated 182 as a 6 year old, whereas Kauto was rated 177 at the same age and Denman had only won a few novice chases at that age, so what makes you so sure that Long Run wont go on to surpass anything that those two achieved??

The horse does not get hte credit it deserves for what he has already achieved, and I have to laugh at those who question both the jockey and the horses jumping ability, Sam Waley Cohen is an excellent jockey and is a pro in all but name, and those who criticise Long Runs jumping but wax lyrical about Kauto lol I know which horse Ive seen make the far worse blunders!

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

Who says its hyperbole?? Long Run is rated 182 as a 6 year old, whereas Kauto was rated 177 at the same age and Denman had only won a few novice chases at that age, so what makes you so sure that Long Run wont go on to surpass anything that those two achieved??

The horse does not get hte credit it deserves for what he has already achieved, and I have to laugh at those who question both the jockey and the horses jumping ability, Sam Waley Cohen is an excellent jockey and is a pro in all but name, and those who criticise Long Runs jumping but wax lyrical about Kauto lol I know which horse Ive seen make the far worse blunders!

182 is a false rating for that Cheltenham win imo

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

and those who criticise Long Runs jumping but wax lyrical about Kauto lol I know which horse Ive seen make the far worse blunders!

Also this is bollocks and you know it. Kauto is a fantastic jumper who made the odd blunder whereas LR is a sketchy jumper, not bad but not great

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

182 is a false rating for that Cheltenham win imo

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Also this is bollocks and you know it. Kauto is a fantastic jumper who made the odd blunder whereas LR is a sketchy jumper, not bad but not great

Well hes King George run was rated 179, still higher than anything Kauto had achieved at 6, and the RP actually rated hes GC win 183.

I know that Kauto is in general a great jumper and the point I was trying to make was people are exagerrating Long Runs jumping errors, and I think from your sentiment there you actually agree.

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

Well hes King George run was rated 179, still higher than anything Kauto had achieved at 6, and the RP actually rated hes GC win 183.

I know that Kauto is in general a great jumper and the point I was trying to make was people are exagerrating Long Runs jumping errors, and I think from your sentiment there you actually agree.

No, I never said LR was a bad jumper, I said he's sketchy, he regularly throws in a low one, but by no means is he a bad jumper.

They can't all jump like Best Mate

tryfix

Don't follow the jumps all that much anymore but this race used to make my christmas. It takes real class to win the King George so I can't have any of them outside of Kauto Star, Long Run and Master Minded. Kauto is too old end of story, in his prime he was awesome but he's not unbeatable anymore. Master Minded is a strange kind of horse, utterly brilliant on a good day but appears to be untrustworthy and vulnerable at the trip. Long Runs age as much as his form is what makes him the choice, I don't like following Gold Cup winners in their next season as the race bottoms most of them out. The fact that Long Run is so young and has already won a King George is enough to make him the selection.

Huntey

premierstone wrote: »

Sam Waley Cohen is an excellent jockey and is a pro in all but name

His incompetence last week and pathetic cover up afterwards makes me believe otherwise.

Long Run will never out-jump Kauto and I do think that a rating of 182 was too high for simply outstaying a poor Gold Cup field.

I still think Long Run will make mince of this field though.

Juwwi

Nulty wrote: »

Its last chance saloon for Somersby, don't think I could back him again if he doesn't run well here.

You will

sonnky

Huntey wrote: »

Somersby will always find one too good. I think he has temperament issues to be honest but he could run a big race.

Ya, Henrietta Knight has a good record in it though. Always looked like he would need farther though and this could be his chance.

Nulty

robbie1977 wrote: »

You will

Ha. I think you might be the only one to understand the gravity of what I said there! :pac:

I didn't back him in the Peterborough but I've backed him about six of his 12 starts over fences which is getting very embarrassing for me AND the horse. All bad things have to come to an end too, right?

I've got him for small stakes at 40s for the Gold Cup too. He'll be a real let down if he doesn't come good. Writing seems to be on the wall....

Nulty

sonnky wrote: »

Ya, Henrietta Knight has a good record in it though. Always looked like he would need farther though and this could be his chance.

Didn't she put Calgary Bay in it once?

I read a quote from Hen the other day and it went something like....

"we're hoping he can get a place....it looks like a two horse race....I'm not worried about Master Minded, its the other two I'm worried about"

I wasn't ion the game when Best Mate or Edredon Bleu were around....is she generally very negative? Is she ever bullish before she has a winner?

She more or less said Somersby wouldn't win the Peterborough. Said the track was not to his liking, etc. Basically warned people off having a bet on him.

Slattsy

Nulty wrote: »

sonnky wrote: »

Ya, Henrietta Knight has a good record in it though. Always looked like he would need farther though and this could be his chance.

Didn't she put Calgary Bay in it once?

I read a quote from Hen the other day and it went something like....

"we're hoping he can get a place....it looks like a two horse race....I'm not worried about Master Minded, its the other two I'm worried about"

I wasn't ion the game when Best Mate or Edredon Bleu were around....is she generally very negative? Is she ever bullish before she has a winner?

She more or less said Somersby wouldn't win the Peterborough. Said the track was not to his liking, etc. Basically warned people off having a bet on him.

I think she's just being honest myself.

Nulty

Slattsy wrote: »

I think she's just being honest myself.

I don't doubt. He has it all to do.

Huntey

Somersby won't be winning this race but I think he will finish ahead of Master Minded.

Juwwi

Nulty wrote: »

Ha. I think you might be the only one to understand the gravity of what I said there! :pac:

I didn't back him in the Peterborough but I've backed him about 11 of his 12 starts over fences which is getting very embarrassing for me AND the horse. All bad things have to come to an end too, right?

I've got him for small stakes at 40s for the Gold Cup too. He'll be a real let down if he doesn't come good. Writing seems to be on the wall....

FYP :P

I dont think he's in anyway ungenuine but I just dont realy like the horse.
I think if he was dropped a stone by the handicapper overnight and started running in handicaps he'd still find one too good in handicaps if that makes any sense.(maybe Im exagerating a bit )


Your question about Henrieta I dont fully remember the build up to Best Mates first Gold Cup even tho I backed him on the day but I do remember the reason his price was so big is because there was a big doubt whether he'd stay so maybe she was the cause of that Im not sure tho.

And then when Edredon Bleu won his King George there was big doubt over him staying so maybe you have a point .

Nulty

robbie1977 wrote: »

FYP :P

I dont think he's in anyway ungenuine but I just dont realy like the horse.
I think if he was dropped a stone by the handicapper overnight and started running in handicaps he'd still find one too good in handicaps if that makes any sense.(maybe Im exagerating a bit )


Your question about Henrieta I dont fully remember the build up to Best Mates first Gold Cup even tho I backed him on the day but I do remember the reason his price was so big is because there was a big doubt whether he'd stay so maybe she was the cause of that Im not sure tho.

And then when Edredon Bleu won his King George there was big doubt over him staying so maybe you have a point .

Haha! That only cause I was banging on about him taking his chance in the QM last year. I made enough noise for another 5 races. I'll tell you what I (remeber) backing him in....

his first 2, which he won. The Arkle, Not sure I backed him at Aintree that year, if I did it wasn't for a memorable stake. I think I had him in the Haldon Gold Cup for a few quid, don't think I was in for the Tingle Creek - he was touted by many that day and didn't look value. I backed Petit Robin in the Victor Chandler at Ascot when he had that fall and Kalahari King was taken wide (like that made the difference. I remember the guy from RPTV talking him up for the Ryanair after that. Albertas Run all the way!) Had 25s or 20s on him ante post for the QM. Terribly outpaced, as was expected by many on here but hey, My money was on and I wanted a run! Pity the ground didn't come up slower. Was on Albertas Run at Aintree after that and haven't backed him at all this year apart from wsom speculative ante post bets in this and the Gold Cup.

I like the horse but the horse is a c**t.

TheMilkyPirate

Race is shaping up to be a cracker. Captain chris e/w i think will be my bet but tbh i'd rather just sit it out and enjoy it.

Somersby running over 3 for the first time which i think the horse really really wants and i'm looking forward to seeing that. Was kauto really off the boil last year? Is he good enough to still be imperious at 11? Can't have master minded at all. Leaves long run and captain chris. The more i think the more i see LR as the most logical winner but haven't the money to be steaming in at the price so a small e/w on captain chris for the spectacle.

ForeverYoung90

320 euro on Long Run to win at 5/4!Talk me out of this.:o

Juwwi

ForeverYoung90 wrote: »

320 euro on Long Run to win at 5/4!Talk me out of this.:o

At least wait untill you get best odds guaranteed .

I cant see him opening shorter than that on monday morning
and if money comes for any of the others he could drift out a bit.

Colonel Sanders

Nulty wrote: »

Didn't she put Calgary Bay in it once?

Don't think so, you might be mixing him up with Racing Demon who was 4th in 2007, just failing to nab a below par Exotic Dancer for 3rd

Really interesting race, I think Long Run is the most likely winner. I'd probably burst into tears if Kauto was to do it for the 5th time I just can't help thinking he was trained to the minute for Haydock and rising 12 may struggle to string 2 top class performances (and it will take a top class performance to win this) together in a short time frame. If I owned him I'd have left him off until the Gold Cup

Master Minded is a bit inconsistent these days and isn't guaranteed to stay but has an exceptional record right handed and has to be respected

Captain Chris has good course form. I personally think he will stay (connections seem to think he'll even improve for the step up to 3m) but will still have to improve probably 10lbs+ to win here. The record of last season's novices isn't spectacular either

I'm no a Somersby fan tbh and couldn't possibly back him here