The Official White Christmas Thread 2011!

Rebelbrowser

Its that time of year again folks (well nearly. sort of.). The good people at NetWeather (god bless them) already have their White Christmas tracker up and running. I've pasted below their rather uninformative first effort. Feel free to add your own predictions here or other predictions you find on other weather sites. I appreciate last year was a white Christmas for us all (in the sense of lying, but not falling, snow) but I for one could never have too many White Christmases.......

" Netweather Christmas Forecast 2011
Christmas Weather 2011 - Will It Be A White Christmas? - Forecast #1 Tuesday 1st November
Christmas Countdown:
47 days to go!

And we're off! Today is one of my favourite days of the year here at Netweather, as November 1st means the start of our Christmas countdown and chance to start following the chances of a White Xmas this year.

With all the hype surrounding this winter, and following a run of colder Decembers there is already quite a lot of talk about the chances of a White Christmas, and for those who like a punt on snow on the big day, right now the odds being offered by the bookies aren't as attractive as they may usually be.

On with the forecast though, and as ever we like to show you a chart to illustrate where things stand right now - today it's from the CFS model (Climate Forecast System). What it's showing is the current forecast for temperatures overall during December, and currently it's very close to average.

You may remember this time last year, the same model was showing some very cold temperatures for December overall, and that's precisely how it turned out - so this time round there's nothing quite as significant being shown at this point. What does this mean for the chance of a White Christmas though? Well, at this range it's obviously tricky to pin anything down, and all we're doing is hunting for trends, but based on the overall forecast the chances at this stage are looking lower than they were at this point in 2010.

There's an awful long way to go just yet though, so stay tuned for our regular updates - and don't forget to give Santa a shake to find out the current chance of snow on the big day in your part of the UK.

Next Update - Tuesday 8th November. "

Sponge Bob

Could you not wait till the 8th of December like any civilised person should ???

eskimocat

Dear Santa

I have been a good girl all year. (No, really, I have ) I love your red suit, its very smart.

For Christmas I would like Snow... lots of Snow...

Thank you Santa...

Eskimocat x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x

NoodleMc

There will be no snow this winter! How do I know you may well ask?



Because I just bought a snow sledge today!

Calibos

NoodleMc wrote: »

There will be no snow this winter! How do I know you may well ask?



Because I just bought a snow sledge today!

I think paying the inevitably inflated price for crampons, SnowSocks for the car, rock Salt and shovel for the path after the snow has already arrived is a price worth paying to guarantee the snow. ie. which is a bigger waste of money? Pay quadruple the price when the snow is already here but actually get to use the items or pay a 1/4 the price now but never get to use them?

I've made a concious decision to enter this Winter as unprepared as I have been for the last 2. Its worked so far!

Mountainsandh

Unintentionally hiding my gloves has worked very well for me.
....The minute I found them.... well... ok. I apologise for last late Jan/February's fiasco everyone.

I swear I'm not even gonna try and find them at all this year, and I publicly pledge not to buy a new pair. There.

Rebelbrowser

Missed this Netweather Christmas update from last week. New one tomorrow too. At this range all a bit of fun only though........

Christmas Forecast 2011
Christmas Weather 2011 - Will It Be A White Christmas? - Forecast #2 Tuesday 8th November

Christmas Countdown:
41 days to go!
The week since our first update has flown by, and in that time we've had yet more hype, media stories and even TV programs about the upcoming winter, but at the same time we're still stuck in a mainly mild run of weather. The weather now has no bearing on how things may be by Christmas though, so how are things shaping up since our last update?

As ever we start with a quick explanation of the weather chart alongside, and again we're using the CFS model (Climate Forecast System). The chart which was updated earlier today is showing a very similar picture to last week's update - with temperatures fairly close to or perhaps a touch below average during December.

Where does this leave us for Christmas day though? For now, it leaves us in with a shot of snow, but only a relatively long shot at this point - as an average across a whole month can't tell the whole story but on the plus side - other indicators are pointing toward the possibility of some colder air being around during the Xmas period.

Next Update - Tuesday 15th November.

Popoutman

It'll be a damp and somewhat dreary Christmas.
I'll be on call all over the Season, so not a lot of drinking or carousing either

Sala

I am starting to worry we won't get any snow this year. I would love a snow day or two off again this year!! I refuse to buy snow shoes or wellies because I have a tendency to jinx things.

Villain

dsmythy

Sala wrote: »

I am starting to worry we won't get any snow this year. I would love a snow day or two off again this year!! I refuse to buy snow shoes or wellies because I have a tendency to jinx things.

Why? It's still November....

Ahorseofaman

http://cdn.randomfunnypicture.com/wp2/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/who-ever-is-praying-for-snow-please-stop.jpg

Rebelbrowser

A mere 32 days to go folks so the forecasts at this stage are virtually etched in stone. ish.

Actually given how mild it is now I'm glad we still have that long to turn things around.

The latest Netweather and, for the first time, TWO, Christmas forecasts are below......

Netweather Christmas Forecast 2011
- Forecast #4 Tuesday 22nd November

The weeks are flying by as we count down to Xmas, the lights are being switched on in town centres up and down the country, and the Christmas ads are starting to come thick and fast on the TV.

You may remember that last week we were looking at the start of a possible trend for cold air to be closeby during the Xmas period, and this week it's been continuing to tease us by showing a colder scenario every other day or so.

The chart on the left from our long range CFS model (Climate Forecast System), is one of those colder scenarios with cold air (the blue colours) over much of the country on the 25th December.

In weather terms we're still absolutely miles from being able to pin down a specific forecast for Christmas day though, so we're on the hunt for trends and hints pointing us in the right direction. And while there's no real clear front runner at this point, there is plenty to be upbeat about if you're hoping for a White Christmas.

Next Update - Tuesday 29th November.


The Weather Outlook

Forecast
Our thirteenth update makes no change to the chances of Christmas snow in the north and south. The weather patterns so far during November have remained blocked, with a mild southerly flow. The mild weather looks set to continue for a while at least, and there are currently few signs of an early winter developing. The current Christmas forecast is for mostly mild to average temperatures with winds coming from the west or south west.

Probabilities of snow falling on Christmas Day
North of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 20%
South of Yorkshire / Lancashire: 15%

thetonynator

Christmas day CFS:

Rebelbrowser

Just to update this. Netweather released their sixth updated forecast yesterday (6/12/11). See below. Still very far out obviously. I do note however our own MT talking of milder weather from 20/12 onwards. Bah humbug.

Christmas Weather 2011 - Will It Be A White Christmas? - Forecast #6 Tuesday 6th December

Christmas Countdown:
18 days to go!

Moving on to the forecast, and following on from the first batch of more widespread wintry weather of the winter there's ever more talk about the chances of some snow this Xmas. As usual we start with a chart from the CFS model (Climate Forecast System) and after a green looking chart last week, this time round the blues have returned.

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/images/winter/xmas2011/cfsxmas6.png

What the blue colours indicate is that the possible trend for cold and potentially snowy weather around the Christmas period is still refusing to disappear, with fairly regularly appearances during recent updates.

With this in mind, this week sees a slight increase in the risk of a White Christmas for many parts of the country.

From next week the mid-range forecast models start to come into range, so we start with more regular updates and should be slowly start to hone in on the final forecast for the big day..

Next Update - Tuesday 13th December.

WolfeIRE

CFS, produced by Stephen Spielberg

Rebelbrowser

WolfeIRE wrote: »

CFS, produced by Stephen Spielberg

Could live with that!

Wild Bill

Is that Steffen Spielberg, the meteorologist from the Frankfurt Climatological Institute?

WolfeIRE

here no. was just saying it looks like a fantasy chart for xmas.

cherryghost

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Hehe yeah

Posted that in the fantasy island thread too !

if only

delw

Enderman wrote: »

i think Mark Vogan drew that chart himself to prove his forecast right

leahyl

That chart looks amazing....i think i'm in love....sigh:P

Speak Now

First Christmas F1 chart!
Nice band of wind and rain brewing up :rolleyes:

Speak Now

Next run we have a nice peaceful Christmas

pauldry

think chances of a white Christmas are 30% at present.. so there is a chance at least.

Remember November at least its not like that.

Very far out but if we could drap the low to the South of Ireland and over England wed be in Dreamland but then again by the time the forecast comes it will be a low to the Northwest and High to the South and sunshine and showers.

Come on santeeeeeeeeeee drag the low

Rebelbrowser

Latest Netweather update is out. They will be every second day from now. Not looking good BUT whilst there is general agreement next week will be warm (mind you its snowing outside as I type this!), it could get cold again in time for the big day. The cold weather is very near our shores so small changes could rewrite these forecasts. Its a time of year for believing and blind faith anyway......

Christmas Forecast 2011
Christmas Weather 2011 - Will It Be A White Christmas? - Forecast #7 Tuesday 13th December- Christmas Countdown:11 days to go!

Time is ticking by quickly, the final days for posting cards and gifts are approaching (or have passed in some cases), the energy companies are enjoying the extra cash made by people attaching enough lights to stretch from here to the moon to their houses and the Christmas special repeats on Gold are being shown daily. Christmas is definitely just around the corner!

In weather terms the countdown is also hotting up, as we're now within range of a few of the medium range models, and that means we can really start to hone in on the final outcome for Xmas day. This week we're using a chart from our ensemble model, and this chart is a bit different to the ones you may be more used to seeing. In short, this model runs a number of times with slight differences each time to give us a chance to see the possibility of a range of outcomes.

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/images/winter/xmas2011/ensxmas1.png

In this instance we're looking for the chances of snowfall, as a general rule for there to be a chance of snow at lower levels the light blues are the minimum you want, on higher ground the blue/green colour can deliver. As you can see, there isn't a great deal of blue on there tonight, particularly across the southern half of the UK - and that about sums things up..

We're still far enough out for fairly significant changes to occur but as we stand right now, the best chance of snow certainly appears to be across the north of the country - with high ground always likely to fair best. If you live from the Midlands southward the chances are receding but not to the point of no return yet.

Give Santa a shake to find out the chance of snow in your part of the country, and stay tuned for the next update in a couple of days time (we'll be updating much more frequently from here on, right up to Xmas eve)

Next Update - Thursday 15th December.

JJJJNR

Big Ben And River Thames Freezing Over Popular UK Weather Betting Markets
In terms of Christmas Day temperature betting, and this is where the really interesting facts and figures come into play. Did you know that the lowest temperature in England stands at -26.1 C, and was recorded on January 10th 1982 in Shropshire, and the chances of that chilly temperature being bettered on Xmas Day itself is a 40 - 1 shot? At the other end of the weather betting scale, and the warmest Christmas Day captured since records like this began was in Kilerton in Devon in 1920, and was a pleasant 15.6 C, and again stands as the exacting figure to beat today, with Paddy Power offering odds of 25 - 1. Yet the weather+maths=fun equation takes over when attempting to predict such mental picture-painting thoughts as 'will Big Ben stop working due to frost?' (66 - 1 possibility) and 'Will the River Thames freeze over and will people ice-skate across it on Christmas Day as a result?' (150 - 1). It's this sort of whimsy that reinforces the stereotype that (for want of a better word) we are 'obsessed' with the weather.

mike65

There is more chance of me skating across the river Suir on a motorised blah than of snow this Christmas.

Brendog

I live in glassnevin so no matter where I go I can always see the wicklow mountains. I love when, like now, they are covered in snow its so chistmassy.

I just went to get lunch from supervalue. Theres guys outside selling trees.



Snow covered mountains and the smell of pine. CHRISTMAS IS HERE!!!!

pauldry

FANTASY CHRISTMAS DAY FORECAST - MAYBE

Mild and breezy with some sunny spells especially in the South. Some showers too these most likely in the Northern half of the country. Moderate Westerly breeze. 20 to 25mph. Max Temps 8 to 11c. Min temp 3 to 6c.

bah!

STEPHENS DAY

Sudden serious blizzard with 10ft of snow in Dublin.:p

Rebelbrowser

pauldry wrote: »

FANTASY CHRISTMAS DAY FORECAST - MAYBE

Mild and breezy with some sunny spells especially in the South. Some showers too these most likely in the Northern half of the country. Moderate Westerly breeze. 20 to 25mph. Max Temps 8 to 11c. Min temp 3 to 6c.

bah!

STEPHENS DAY

Sudden serious blizzard with 10ft of snow in Dublin.:p

To be honest, so long as it wasn't too mild, the ideal sceanario is probably coldish but no snow on Christmas day (as most of us need to be mobile) but then lots of snow in the post Christmas / pre new year period when most of us are off and can play in the snow with our kids (that's my excuse) or whatever.......

Rebelbrowser

Latest Netweather forecast is below. Generally negative. That said, while I know precious little about weather, the GFS at 6z today looks fairly cold so perhaps this update is already out of date? Certainly the talk of a Christmas Heatwave seems miles off and I've still not given up on a white one.......

Christmas Weather 2011 - Forecast #8 Thursday 15th December
Christmas Countdown:9 days to go!

....for this update we're again using one of our ensemble charts. If you didn't see the last update, this model runs a number of times with slight differences each time to give us a chance to see the probability of a range of outcomes - in this case a white Christmas.
If you're hoping for some of the white stuff unfortunately tonight's update isn't going to fill you with too much joy, as there isn't too much blue showing on the maps and that's needed for a risk of snow at lower levels at least.

http://hw.nwstatic.co.uk/images/winter/xmas2011/ensxmas2.png

We're still a little way off of the definitive answer, but we're drawing close to it now and as things stand the best chance of snow will be across the hills and mountains of Northern Britain - particularly Scotland. Further south we're really looking for a faily major turnaround for snow to be likely - stranger things have happened but it's a long shot now..

Give Santa a shake to find out the chance of snow in your part of the country, and stay tuned for the next update this coming Sunday (we'll be updating much more frequently from here on, right up to Xmas eve)

Next Update - Sunday 18th December.

alfa beta

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

That said, while I know precious little about weather, the GFS at 6z today looks fairly cold

Was thinking that too - with the GFS showing minus 4's over the country on the 25th - not a million miles off what we have at the mo.

The ECM is less cold though - especially for the southern half of the country - but it's so far out it'll all change.

Keep them fingers crossed in any case!

WolfeIRE

At this stage the GEFS is showing a cold xmas eve and stephens day and a mider xmas day.

Here are the 24th and 26th, bringing wintry showers to the west and north in particular on both days

Suffice to say, all of this is subject to change.

JanuarySnowstor

Wouldnt ya just love to see Evelyn eat humble pie!!
She's way ott saying 2 nights in a row that Christmas day will see double figures.
The 18z shows how snow could still be possible

Wild Bill

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Wouldnt ya just love to see Evelyn eat humble pie!!

I'd enjoy watching Evelyn eating anything

Wine Goddess

To quote our dear colleague & weather geek - the mighty Sponge - it's back to meh meh blah blah bland weather........:mad::mad::mad:

Yawn, yawn.

Need to do some more persistent snow dancing.:P

Maybe we could organise a flash mob? :rolleyes:

Sponge Bob

This has to go down as the silliest thread of 2011 in this forum.

A wonderful collection of quarter truthlets and aspirations, 'backed' on occasion by self publicising idiot commercial forecasters and with large dollops of sheer delusion and snow bunny hugs layered on.

For the record.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/cheer-for-swimmers-as-unseasonal-weather-puts-greece-in-the-shade-2973250.html

It was one of the warmest Christmas Days on record, with a highest temperature of 14.4 degrees recorded at Met Eireann's Moore Park station near Fermoy, Co Cork.

In comparison, it was 13 degrees in Corfu, Greece and in Sardinia, Italy.

Klara Finkele, a forecaster with Met Eireann said they weren't exactly sure when the warmest Christmas Day was -- but yesterday was definitely one of them

mike65

mike65 wrote: »

There is more chance of me skating across the river Suir on a motorised blaa than of snow this Christmas.

I just thought I'd bump this

Sponge Bob

You got a lot of thanks and hugs for that post Mike

Wild Bill

You guys enjoy kicking snow bunnies when they're down??

Sponge Bob

Snow bunny gets mammy to drive it everywhere and does not pay the heating bills

Deep Easterly

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Wouldnt ya just love to see Evelyn eat humble pie!!
She's way ott saying 2 nights in a row that Christmas day will see double figures.
The 18z shows how snow could still be possible

Indeed...