Mediterranean "Hurricane" forming

J6P

Some sort of developing mediterranean hurricane



http://www.meteo-allerta.it/en/weather/weather-for-professionals/film-of-currents/italy.html

Su Campu

As posted in another thread, there appears to be an elusive sub-tropical low pressure system developing in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, between Sardinia and the Balearics. It has even been given a Dvorak satellite classification, and looks like strengthening to give storm force winds to northwestern Sardinia, southwestern Corsica and Menorca over the next couple of days.

TXMM21 KNES 071819
TCSMED

A. 01M (NONAME)

B. 07/1800Z

C. 41.1N

D. 5.3E

E. THREE/MET-9

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT=2.5 BASED ON .5 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=2.5. MET=2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED
LONG ENOUGH AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER FOR A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ

Su Campu

From ESTOFEX

A side note:
The past model runs converged with their handling on the low pressure area over the W-Mediterranean. Phase diagrams indicate that a shallow warm core structure may have formed in the past 12 h and some further organization is possible. However, no model now indicates reliable probabilities for an enhanced chance of a deep warm core structure. Nevertheless this system already revealed some banding structure with active convection along those bands (especially along the southern/eastern part). There is plenty of time left that this system could still acquire some better organization/structure. In case those convective bands starts to wrap around the center and become better organized, some kind of classification can be carried out. Most models loop this depression first to the east and later in the period northwards to the coast of S-France (remaining still offshore until 06Z).
An update may be issued, if further organization unfolds.

A level 1 was issued for the W-Mediterranean and NW-Italy mainly for heavy rainfall. Isolated excessive rainfall is possible.

SYNOPSIS

Please refer to the main outlook.

Update of the side-note":

Latest satellite data reveals a gradually better organized depression in the western Mediterranean. The center is at least partially covered by a central dense overcast feature with strong pulsating cells especially along the northern/eastern part. It still ingests a somewhat more stable/dry air mass from the south with a diminishing trend, so conditions look promising for further organization. Latest ASCAT data indicates a broad and asymmetric wind field with maxima still displaced from the center, which is typical for an organizing subtropical cyclone (in the range of 30-35 kt). Phase diagrams also support that this depression continued to structure its shallow warm core during the past 12 h and indicates further organization for the upcoming 24 h. Using the Hebert Poteat technique and keeping in mind the better organized structre of the main band and deeper/somewhat more persisting DMC along the center, a classification of ST 2.5 would be a reasonable, although probably quite an optimistic guess, given still transientness of the convection ( ST 2.5 represents an intensity of 35-40 kt). It has to be stressed out that no real time surface data is present to support that intensification rating.

Overall model guidance agrees in pushing that feature northwards towards S-France but with a significant cone of uncertainty. Also intensity guidance diverges with some models indicating a gradual weakening trend, whereas WRF-NMM f.ex. has some further strengthening until landfall. Current thinking is that some further organization seems likely, before geopotential heights gradually increase on Tuesday. In any case, there seems to be no direct affect to S-France until 06 Z, despite increasing easterly winds along the coast and stronger downpours in onshore moving bands.

Rougies

These "baby hurricanes" are interesting. One to add to this thread for prosperity...

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=74579050

Sponge Bob

Looks like it has an eye and all !!

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

Su Campu

An Ascat pass at 10:17 this morning shows some gale to storm force winds on its northern flank.

Sponge Bob

Heading for Liguria and all, 3 flash flood in 3 months

Su Campu

Current Sardinian radar image



And 0.05° HiRLAM rainfall chart for 21Z tonight, showing some major flooding potential for southwestern France and Liguria.

MizDorry

I'm on the top floor of a building by the port in Antibes France - 7th storey. Slap bang in the middle of all that red stuff. Let me tell you the winds are ferocious! But no rain as yet.

dsmythy

Trogdor

MizDorry wrote: »

I'm on the top floor of a building by the port in Antibes France - 7th storey. Slap bang in the middle of all that red stuff. Let me tell you the winds are ferocious! But no rain as yet.

Wind forecast from the WRF model for this evneing, looks particularly rough from Antibes down to Toulon along the coast there!
Taken from here:
http://www.keraunos.org/tropical-like-mediterranean-storm-novembre-2011.htm

MizDorry

eek! The prognosis there is not great for the VAR which is already suffering terribly from flooding. This give us up to 16 mm of rain tonight as well http://www.windfinder.com/forecast/antibes.

On Sat. night the rain hammered the doors into the living room (which were shut) and left us a river right under the telly. Power on and off several times with lightening strikes and surges.

I know that's not very scientific, but I hope you appreciate an eyewitness account.

dsmythy

Waves impacting the south coast of France.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gG-CKgkHYsA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGWgbBlP1rs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VSfN44zonQ

Su Campu

Toulon (110 m) reported a max average windspeed of 52 kt at 19 UTC, with a gust of 80 kts at 21 UTC.

Ship BATFR20, around 10 - 15 miles off the coast, reported mean windspeed of NE 57 kt at 22 UTC.

Here's the chart for 00 UTC, showing mean speeds 46 and 43 kt, respectively, for these two reporting stations.



Ascat pass at 20 UTC. Note: these sensors have a low bias at high windspeeds, so will tend to underrerport the strongest winds.

Weylin

November 9, 2011 – FRANCE – A tropical storm (possibly a subtropical hybrid) has formed in the Mediterranean Sea. No, this isn’t a typo. Take a look at the satellite imagery above from early Tuesday morning. Circled in white is the storm south of France and to the west of Italy. Although rare, this is not an unprecedented event. According to the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA, low-pressure systems resembling tropical storms and hurricanes have occurred in September 1947, September 1969, January 1982, September 1983 and January 1995. Due to their rarity, they have not been fully studied so there is some question as to whether these systems have the same structure as tropical storms found over the tropical waters in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The storm is forecast to weaken as it moves slowly near the southern coast of France and northwest Italy. This is the same region of Italy which has been hit hard by flooding in recent weeks, so any additional rain from this system would be a very unwelcome sight. –The Weather Channel

MizDorry

Apparently, they called it Rolf. After a week of horrendous winds and rain, all is quiet on the mediterranean seafront now.

Strangegravy

According to the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA, low-pressure systems resembling tropical storms and hurricanes have occurred in September 1947, September 1969, January 1982, September 1983 and January 1995.

Hmmmm... Interesting, when they have occured in the past, it seems to some bit coincide with very snowy winters in the UK and Ireland.

Just saying like...

dsmythy

Strangegravy wrote: »

Hmmmm... Interesting, when they have occured in the past, it seems to some bit coincide with very snowy winters in the UK and Ireland.

Just saying like...

I never even copped that ha.

Strangegravy

dsmythy wrote: »

Strangegravy wrote: »

Hmmmm... Interesting, when they have occured in the past, it seems to some bit coincide with very snowy winters in the UK and Ireland.

Just saying like...

I never even copped that ha.

Ah I'm sure some of the pro's on here would be able to examine it closer and tell if the dates do match up proper, but for me it's good enough to keep my hopes up of seeing some decent snow this winter.

And yes, I'm well aware I'm talking about snow in a thread about a Mediterranean Storm.... But at least it is some bit related!