sub 2 hour marathon?

bart simpson

Geoffrey Mutai wins with a new NYC Marathon course record of 2:05:06!

will there be a sub 2 in the next 5 years?

ecoli

bart simpson wrote: »

Geoffrey Mutai wins with a new NYC Marathon course record of 2:05:06!

will there be a sub 2 in the next 5 years?

You will be lucky to see it in the next 50 years to be honest

The record has only dropped just under 5 min in the last 30 years and still another 3 and a half to get around that territory.

The influx in the last few years of East Africans to the marathon has seen a dramatic increase in the standards however I can see these times level off and see 2.02 high being a plateau for quite some time before you get a U Bolt type freak to come along and re write the history books. Perhaps there is someone like that on the horizon but will be a long time I feel until we get near enough to 2 hours to even contemplate that

village runner

bart simpson wrote: »

Geoffrey Mutai wins with a new NYC Marathon course record of 2:05:06!

will there be a sub 2 in the next 5 years?

You break 3 hours for hte first time monday. Now you are thinking of breaking 2 hours.
Not in your running lifetime Brian. for both that is.

bart simpson

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-12933932
http://www.sportsscientists.com/2011/11/marathon-era-seismic-shift-and.html
yeah okay i was being niave about 5 years, but i dont think it will take 50 years, in the second link above the stats show in 2001 only one marathon runner went under 2:07, 25 did it this year, thats a huge surge in improvement of the average standard, the more freaks of nature that you have trying it the better the chance that one of them will do it, and the ages of the elite marathon runners are getting younger. the rewards for being the first to do it would be huge

ecoli

bart simpson wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-12933932
http://www.sportsscientists.com/2011/11/marathon-era-seismic-shift-and.html
yeah okay i was being niave about 5 years, but i dont think it will take 50 years, in the second link above the stats show in 2001 only one marathon runner went under 2:07, 25 did it this year, thats a huge surge in improvement of the average standard, the more freaks of nature that you have trying it the better the chance that one of them will do it, and the ages of the elite marathon runners are getting younger. the rewards for being the first to do it would be huge

Few reasons for this:

Kenyans made transition from XC (rich tradition in) into marathon running

Pacers becoming more and more a part of marathon running

I do agree this surge will yield great improvements but we are talking about going from 2.08 to be considered world class down to 2.05. Then there are the huge exceptions who are running in the 2.03 range (4 this year/ 2 legal times). As I said I can see there being a progression down to about 2.02 in the next 5-10 years but after that this surge to the sport will start to plateau

If you actually look at the performances you would need to be a 12.30/26 5k/10k runner potential just in order to be in the realm of it then have the ability to transfer it to the marathon running

Then we may also see runners reverting back to focusing on track as the competition to get into races begins to increase and runners can no longer command the same appearances fees.

BobMac104

I give it a go myself and let ye know how i get on

bart simpson

BobMac104 wrote: »

I give it a go myself and let ye know how i get on

did ya see the guy on TV at the start of the dublin marathon? in fairness a photo of him leading 8 kenyans in a marathon up on the mantle piece would be great ....commentator didnt seem to see the fun side

PDCAT

bart simpson wrote: »

did ya see the guy on TV at the start of the dublin marathon? in fairness a photo of him leading 8 kenyans in a marathon up on the mantle piece would be great ....commentator didnt seem to see the fun side

Yeah, that guy was infront of me at the expo on Sunday, asking a load of questions to the guy whom was on the microphone giving out instructions for race day. Think he was pissing off the guy. Saw him the morning of the race as well. Thought he was foreign. Weird sort....

BobMac104

Ya I did. What the did the commentator say again something like "now that the fun runner has had his moment in the sun ......"