Predict the results by count

Ozymandius2011

Here's my stab at it.

1st count:
Gallagher 35%
Higgins 28%
McGuinness 15%
Mitchell 10%
Norris 8%
Davis 2%
Dana 2%

2nd Count:
Gallagher 36
Higgins 30
McGuinness 15
Mitchell 10
Norris 9

3rd Count:
Gallagher 39
Higgins 33
McGuinness 17
Mitchell 11

4th Count
Gallagher 46
Higgins 38
McGuinness 16

Final Count
Gallager 50.1%
Higgins 49.9%

In the last count my motivation is that I believe the traditional geographical considerations e.g. Gallagher's roots in border counties and Louth, will outweigh the tensions between SF and Gallagher displayed in the debate.

What are your predictions?

road_high

This is wishful thinking...putting it mildly

nordydan

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Here's my stab at it.

1st count:
Gallagher 35%
Higgins 28%
McGuinness 15%
Mitchell 10%
Norris 8%
Davis 2%
Dana 2%

2nd Count:
Gallagher 36
Higgins 30
McGuinness 15
Mitchell 10
Norris 9

3rd Count:
Gallagher 39
Higgins 33
McGuinness 17
Mitchell 11

4th Count
Gallagher 46
Higgins 38
McGuinness 16

Final Count
Gallager 50.1%
Higgins 49.9%

In the last count my motivation is that I believe the traditional geographical considerations e.g. Gallagher's roots in border counties and Louth, will outweigh the tensions between SF and Gallagher displayed in the debate.

What are your predictions?

How the hell did MMG drop between the 3rd and 4th counts?

dav3

nordydan wrote: »

How the hell did MMG drop between the 3rd and 4th counts?

I was thinking that myself. Maybe a new voting system has been introduced?

road_high

nordydan wrote: »

How the hell did MMG drop between the 3rd and 4th counts?

LOL . Well spotted. And most of Mitchell's FG transfers going to Gallagher???
This guy is clearly not well.

Eliot Rosewater

nordydan wrote: »

How the hell did MMG drop between the 3rd and 4th counts?

West Brits have it rigged!!

dav3

I demand a recount.

washman3

Are you saying that 35% of Irish voters are in urgent need of phyciatric help??
Or just FF ers climbing back out of the woodwork..........;)

LordSutch

1/ Gallagher wins after transfers
2/ Higgins disappointingly comes 2nd
3/ Norris makes a surprise 3rd place!
4/ McGuinness fails miserably.
5/ Mitchell fails even more so . . .
6/ Dana got her message across?
7/ Mary airbrushed into oblivion.

MazG

In your fantasy, both Mr Mitchell and Mr McGuinness would be eliminated after the 3rd count

Plus, you've put over a quarter of Mr McGuinness's transfers in the final count to Mr Gallagher. Now after the way you've been speaking to Mr McGuinness's supporters on boards, and the way they have been reacting to you and your mates, I think we can safely say that is unlikely.

dlofnep

I think Maccy G's transfers will go to Micky D. At least, a large portion. Gallagher might make it over the line through closest FF voters.

cardwizzard

1. Martin comes storming in.
2. Higgins close but no cigar.
3. Norris.
4. FG get their support out for Gay.
5. Sean Gallagher fades away(heres hoping).
6. Joint sixth are Dana and Mary Davis on exactly the same amount of votes.

I think they may well be a twist yet to come, and hope its for Martin.:)

LordSutch

cardwizzard wrote: »

1. Martin comes storming in.
2. Higgins close but no cigar.
3. Norris.
4. FG get their support out for Gay.
5. Sean Gallagher fades away(heres hoping).
6. Joint sixth are Dana and Mary Davis on exactly the same amount of votes.

I think they may well be a twist yet to come, and hope its for Martin.:)

I suspect Martin will be on the Enterprise by count three )

thebman

1 Higgins
2 Gallagher
3 McGuinness
4 Norris
5 Mitchell
6 Davis
7 Dana

But there is a reason I don't bet :P

Jimoslimos

Round 1:
Gallagher
Higgins
McGuinness
Norris
Mitchell
Davis
Dana

Round 2:
Gallagher
Higgins
McGuinness
Mitchell
Norris
Davis

Round 3:
Gallagher
Higgins
McGuinness
Mitchell
Norris

Round 4:
Higgins
Gallagher
McGuinness
Mitchell

Round 5:
Higgins
Gallagher
McGuinness

Round 6
Higgins - President Elect
Gallagher

wow sierra

thebman wrote: »

1 Higgins
2 Gallagher
3 McGuinness
4 Norris
5 Mitchell
6 Davis
7 Dana

But there is a reason I don't bet :P

Exactly what I would go for if I was betting. If it was an ideal world I would go for:

1 Higgins
2 McGuinness
3 Norris
4 Davis
5 Mitchell
6 Dana
7 Gallagher

cardwizzard

LordSutch wrote: »

I suspect Martin will be on the Enterprise by count three )

Maybe, I'd settle for first place for him right now.:p

I actually think the big winner in all the frontline debate was Higgins, so if Higgins does win the least he could do is send a nice present to Martin. No alcohol of course.

Jimoslimos

Gallagher will still poll well, better than some might expect here. The revelations have sadly come too late.

The only potential surprise that might happen is perhaps Mitchell outpolling Norris - especially if its tight the few Dana transfers may push him ahead.

Majority of Mary Davis transfers will go to Gallagher - though not as much as perhaps last week.

Norris/Mitchell/McGuinness will mostly go to Higgins.

Higgins to be ahead before McGuinness transfers.

Skid

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Final Count
Gallager 50.1%
Higgins 49.9%

Apart from all the other mistakes, you have left out non transferable votes

Not a snowball in hell's chance of all votes transferring down to the final two

LordSutch

wow sierra wrote: »

1 Higgins
2 McGuinness
3 Norris
4 Davis
5 Mitchell
6 Dana
7 Gallagher

Wishful SF propaganda thinking :rolleyes:

fishy fishy

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Here's my stab at it.

1st count:
Gallagher 35%
Higgins 28%
McGuinness 15%
Mitchell 10%
Norris 8%
Davis 2%
Dana 2%

2nd Count:
Gallagher 36
Higgins 30
McGuinness 15
Mitchell 10
Norris 9

3rd Count:
Gallagher 39
Higgins 33
McGuinness 17
Mitchell 11

4th Count
Gallagher 46
Higgins 38
McGuinness 16

Final Count
Gallager 50.1%
Higgins 49.9%

In the last count my motivation is that I believe the traditional geographical considerations e.g. Gallagher's roots in border counties and Louth, will outweigh the tensions between SF and Gallagher displayed in the debate.

What are your predictions?

keep counting

Pompey Magnus

LordSutch wrote: »

Wishful SF propaganda thinking :rolleyes:

LordSutch wrote: »

I suspect Martin will be on the Enterprise by count three )

Wishful Anti SF propoganda thinking :rolleyes:

seamus

Gallagher's a dead man.

Just for ****s and giggles:

First Count
Higgins 35%
McGuinness 22%
Gallagher 16%
Norris 13%
Mitchell 8%
Davis 4%
Dana 2%

Dana, Davis & Mitchell Eliminated

Second Count
Higgins 43% (+8)
McGuinness 24% (+2)
Gallagher 17% (+1)
Norris 16% (+3)

Norris Eliminated

Third Count
Higgins 53% (+10)
McGuinness 26% (+2)
Gallagher 21% (+4)

jimmycrackcorm

McGuinness was at 13% and you have him ending up on 26%? Will Sinn Fein supporters be holding guns to the heads of the voters as they walk them in to the booths?

seamus wrote: »

Gallagher's a dead man.

Just for ****s and giggles:

First Count
Higgins 35%
McGuinness 22%
Gallagher 16%
Norris 13%
Mitchell 8%
Davis 4%
Dana 2%

Dana, Davis & Mitchell Eliminated

Second Count
Higgins 43% (+8)
McGuinness 24% (+2)
Gallagher 17% (+1)
Norris 16% (+3)

Norris Eliminated

Third Count
Higgins 53% (+10)
McGuinness 26% (+2)
Gallagher 21% (+4)

seamus

Yeah I could be well overestimating it, but I don't know where Gallagher's lost votes will go.