Presidential Polling Day Predictions?

ninebeanrows

With only a few days until polling day and polls in papers surprising many people, what do you think the actual result will be Friday?

Here is my guess for First Preferences:

Sean Gallagher: 34%

Michael D Higgins: 28%

Martin McGuinness: 14%

David Norris: 10%

Gay Mitchell: 8%

Mary Davis: 3%

Dana: 3%

Sunnyisland

You could be right there weathercheck, by the way whats the forecast for the day weatherwise that is,Might have a small impact on voters.

Sunnyisland

My own prediction now would be

MDH 1

SG 2

MMG 3

ninebeanrows

realies wrote: »

You could be right there weathercheck, by the way whats the forecast for the day weatherwise that is,Might have a small impact on voters.

It's going to be an awful week but Thursday looks good.

Expected to stay dry and quite mild, in fact at this time of posting could be a cracking day but chilly in the evening with ground frost.

Teclo

Sean Gallagher: 35%

Michael D Higgins: 25%

Martin McGuinness: 17%

Gay Mitchell: 9%

David Norris: 7%

Dana: 4%

Mary Davis: 3%

LordSutch

Sean Gallagher: 39%

Michael D Higgins: 28%

Gay Mitchell: 13%

Martin McGuinness: 12%

David Norris: 10%

Dana: 6%

Mary Davis: 3%

tonycascarino

MD Higgins 100%

ninebeanrows

LordSutch wrote: »

Sean Gallagher: 39%

Michael D Higgins: 28%

Gay Mitchell: 13%

Martin McGuinness: 12%

David Norris: 10%

Dana: 6%

Mary Davis: 3%

= 111%

bijapos

Gallagher 33
Higgins 27
McGuinness 16
Norris 9
Mitchell 9
Davis 3
Scallon 3

Reason for scoring this is that Gallaghers vote is demographically a bit younger than Higgins and thus less likely to turn out. I also reckon there will be a bit more dirt thrown at him, especially tomorrow night on Frontline.

headmaster

At this stage we all know it's between, M D and S G. The thing is, what's going to happen to the votes of the also rans? I'd imagine MMG will get a fair few of his fellow Derry runner, very few of Mitchels and not a lot of the others. When he's out, i think his transfers will elect Gallagher, but Michael D will pick up transfers from everyone, but not enough to get elected. Looking at TV of late, Gallagher has another ace up his sleeve, in his very attractive wife. Who would people like as the 1st lady, Mrs Gallagher or Mrs Higgins? It will have a bearing on the result, even if it's in a subconcious way. So, it's a win for Sean Gallagher with a very close runner up spot for Michael D and Martin Mcguiness a not so far away 3rd.

The only bad point of this presidential election i found, was the utter sniping of the media, their scraping of the barrell, their intrusion into the privacy of all canditates. Then they had the gall to tell us that it was in the public interest, they really set a new low for their so called career and made it a very undesireable and cheap job. Shame on them.

bleg

I really don't have a clue. I'm not happy that Gallagher is doing so well. I think he's a shifty character and I hope he doesn't get in. I'll be driving down from Dublin on Thursday to vote at home anyway!

thebman

I think Higgins will get it with Gallagher voters not turning up and some will go to Mitchell instead.

I think it will be:

1) Higgins
2) Gallagher
3) McGuiness
4) Mitchell

At least that is how I hope it turns out. I don't want to see Homer Simpson as president.

ninebeanrows

It could be very interesting split between Dublin v Rest of Ireland.

20% in Dublin 50% outside?

mikemac

State of the weather out there

If it's a wet windy day do you think this could affect the result? Is there a candidate who wants a low turnout?
Just something I'm pondering
Oh and the OP's username

glenkeo

Sean Gallagher: 30%

Michael D Higgins: 25%

Gay Mitchell: 19%

Martin McGuinness: 12%

David Norris: /Dana /Mary Davis 14%

I Think alot of gallaghers vote will switch to Mitchell in the booth, Michael d still in with a good shout