Gallagher surges to 39% in latest poll, Higgins 27, the rest way behind

hotmail.com

I'm reading off twitter that the latest opinion poll for the Sunday Business post has Sean Gallagher on 39%, up 18 points since the last comparable poll. It's worth noting that the fieldwork for the poll was taken before the Prime Time debate on Wednesday where Gallagher performed badly.

Full Results:

Gallagher 39
Higgins 27
McGuinness 13
Mitchell 8
Norris 7
Davis 4
Dana 2

A remarkable result for Gallagher and he's now the favourite.

Mitchell is down 2% and McG is down 3%, people probably are bored of hearing about Northern Ireland. FG must be very embarrassed at the moment as their candidate is not even reaching 10%.

Norris, Davis and Dana are now completely irrelevant. Mitchell is only important in the context of where his transfers will go.

Bigcheeze

Stunning poll for Gallagher.

IMO, in the recession, people see the only practical benefit of President is to act as a sort of trade envoy and Gallagher is probably the most credible in that role.

steelcityblues

Can't believe a lot of people are going for this slick oil salesman, but their choice.

Certainly his election to lose, now.

Red Right Hand

Oh look 39%, the FF vote is coming out.

mikemac

Adi Roche kiss of death? :eek:
40% in early polls, final result, 7%

I could call it Brian Lenihan curse too, he had the election won too it seemed
It's like the Grand National, the favorite rarely wins

Lame Lantern

hahaha, Fianna Fáil are going to win the presidency while Fine Gael comes in fifth. More evidence that FG's support is based only being the highest profile party that is not Fianna Fáil and that the public is still attracted to FF's broad populism once it's been sanitised and divested of the ruined brand.

Make no mistake: Gallagher's platform, message and campaigning approach have all been textbook Fiann Fáil. This is hilarious.

maxer68

mikemac wrote: »

Adi Roche kiss of death? :eek:
40% in early polls, final result, 7%

I could call it Brian Lenihan curse too, he had the election won too it seemed
It's like the Grand National, the favorite rarely wins

I think its a bit last to call it an early poll. But correct in the curse of the early poll, Norris definitely gone & Higgins almost gone.

The only thing stopping higgins is his age - his time was 14 years ago as the position is fairly hectic these days.

At least gallagher esposes positivity - something I haven't heard from any of the others. MMG seems to think it satrts with and ends with the northern Ireland and he's finally been found out.

Lame Lantern

Another thing: If Gallagher does win then FF is going to go around the back rooms spinning it as a victory for them. Money is going to start rolling into the FF coffers like in the past ahead of the next locals.

imme

Lame Lantern wrote: »

Another thing: If Gallagher does win then FF is going to go around the back rooms spinning it as a victory for them. Money is going to start rolling into the FF coffers like in the past ahead of the next locals.

"back rooms", come on, do you know what has happened to FF, they are literally finished.

who will the money come from o wise one,

the failed bankrupt builders
the broken bankers
the exigent emigrants
the unfortunate unemployed

I think you'll need to pour another cup of tea, as the tea leaves you read from the last one weren't very accurate.

Cjoe

I am surprised at the high poll for gallagher. I havent heard anyone I have spoken to that would dream of voting for him. Especially after his dumb reply to the "do you think fianna fáil ruined the country" question put to him.

Michael D seems to be most peoples safe bet. Un-assuming with no bad history behind him. Then mcguinness seems to be getting alot of votes mostly as a two fingers to the media who have treated him poorly during the campaign.

I hope Gallagher doesnt get it. Met him 1 month ago and not impressed at all. Clinical is how I would put him. No personality, good business man no doubt but just not a presidential type at all.

Cavehill Red

But ... but ...

Martin McGuinness has been on 40% at least in every online poll! Twitter and the blogosphere are alive with middle class voters who've never countenanced voting for Sinn Fein who intend to give Saint Marty their no. 1!

Even here in boards.ie, we've had literally dozens of threads exploring how Nelson ManGuinness has been sorely maltreated by the media and yet is on course to surprise them all!

This professionally conducted poll for a respected sunday paper must be rogue. I mean, it's not as if Shinners would be spamming the internet to puff their man or anything. That wouldn't happen.

Biggins

This whole election just seems now to be as Shakespeare wrote, A Comedy Of Errors!

bleg

Mitchell would be a better president than Gallagher.

Mr.Micro

I just cannot see why he is ahead as he is so wooden and clearly FF. The only other possibilities are the poll was taken before PT, he is the best of the 5 males in he looks bullish? Apart from that nothing?

oppenheimer1

Lame Lantern wrote: »

Another thing: If Gallagher does win then FF is going to go around the back rooms spinning it as a victory for them. Money is going to start rolling into the FF coffers like in the past ahead of the next locals.

I don't think thats likely to be honest. The FF machine has broken under a wave of disillusionment. An alternative future view is that after 7 years in the park, Gallagher could try and become a force by setting up his own party from the fragments of the shattered FF structure.

That all assumes Gallagher wins among many other things. Who knows what the world will look like in 7 years?!

jonniebgood1

Red Right Hand wrote: »

Oh look 39%, the FF vote is coming out.

FF don't have 39%

Annasopra

Cavehill Red wrote: »

it's not as if Shinners would be spamming the internet to puff their man or anything. That wouldn't happen.

never

Havermeyer

mikemac wrote: »

Adi Roche kiss of death? :eek:
40% in early polls, final result, 7%

I could call it Brian Lenihan curse too, he had the election won too it seemed
It's like the Grand National, the favorite rarely wins

There's nearly as many runners as a Grand National too.

Still though, I was pretty shocked when I saw the results of this pole. If anything I thought he'd have lost support following the Prime Time debate.

bleg

Poll was done before PT.

mike65

It'll need a second poll to confirm this, so I wouldn't get too exercised.

Havermeyer

bleg wrote: »

Poll was done before PT.

That makes more sense.

ArmaniJeanss

Lame Lantern wrote: »

Another thing: If Gallagher does win then FF is going to go around the back rooms spinning it as a victory for them. Money is going to start rolling into the FF coffers like in the past ahead of the next locals.

Nah, the opposite will happen imo.
The remaining FFers will see that leaving the party is the only way to further whats left of their careers.

gandalf

Very surprised at Gallagher getting this surge. Any time I have seen him he has not impressed at all.

Da Shins Kelly

I'm very surprised. He's so uncharismatic, seems extremely rehearsed and leaves me feeling kind of cold. I haven't really felt any impact from him at all, and I don't know anyone who has. I'm terribly vexed.

tommyboy2222

If Sean FF Gallagher gets elected I will have lost all hope for the Irish people.

We are not that stupid, are we ?

phog

tommyboy2222 wrote: »

If Sean FF Gallagher gets elected I will have lost all hope for the Irish people.

We are not that stupid, are we ?

So tell me who is the best candidate? Who do you think deserves No1?

Red Right Hand

jonniebgood1 wrote: »

FF don't have 39%

Sure, they only have 16 of the 39.

Red Right Hand

bleg wrote: »

Poll was done before PT.

The Slime Time debate won't have much of an effect on him, too many bombs dropped by others for people to care. He had already described himself as coming from the FF gene pool, everyone knew what that meant.

gbee

I'll miss him off the Den for sure.

gandalf

Red Right Hand wrote: »

Oh look 39%, the FF vote is coming out.

I would say a good portion would be Fine Gael voters and then young voters voting for the youngest candidate.

nice_guy80

a lot of people annoyed with the bickering between the other candidates and their parties

thats why Gallagher has surged imho

Lame Lantern

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

I don't think thats likely to be honest. The FF machine has broken under a wave of disillusionment. An alternative future view is that after 7 years in the park, Gallagher could try and become a force by setting up his own party from the fragments of the shattered FF structure.

FF's grassroots rank and file have swollen Gallagher's corps of volunteers, at least according to the few FF hacks I follow on twitter. Gallagher's extraordinarily well managed retail campaign would seem to bear that out.

I think it's a bit dangerous to go around dancing on Fianna Fáil's grave just yet. They still have an active (though admittedly aging) supporter infrastructure and its historical effectiveness is on display here. They still got 400,000 first preference votes at last general election and even though they've strategically gone dark since then it doesn't mean their supporters are completely routed.

crazydaize

tommyboy2222 wrote: »

If Sean FF Gallagher gets elected I will have lost all hope for the Irish people.

We are not that stupid, are we ?

No, but writing that is.

And looking for or highlighting the links with a political party is too.

Clearly the man has done a lot more in his life than his work with FF. His popularity has soared so maybe you should examine why instead of questioning if the electorate is stupid.

Mr.Micro

Lame Lantern wrote: »

FF's grassroots rank and file have swollen Gallagher's corps of volunteers, at least according to the few FF hacks I follow on twitter. Gallagher's extraordinarily well managed retail campaign would seem to bear that out.

I think it's a bit dangerous to go around dancing on Fianna Fáil's grave just yet. They still have an active (though admittedly aging) supporter infrastructure and its historical effectiveness is on display here. They still got 400,000 first preference votes at last general election and even though they've strategically gone dark since then it doesn't mean their supporters are completely routed.

Pity....like we really need anything FF, as if we did not have enough trouble.

naldface

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Pity....like we really need anything FF, as if we did not have enough trouble.

Aaargh! All. At sleep not did I fact in, sleep good extremely an have not did I.

IngazZagni

At the beginning of this campaign, I had no interest in voting for Gallagher. But I'm slowly thinking of doing just that now.

Why? He's not a politician, he's youthful (ish, well compared to the other candidates anyway) and I think he would do a good job in the roll as President. Most importantly, getting Ireland back to work. He would be the best man to meet business leaders from around the world and attract them here.

Let me say this as well. I have never voted for FF. But I think it's wrong to paint Gallagher with the FF brush. FF was by far the biggest party only a couple of years ago which means they had the vote of a huge percentage of the population. Are you saying all those who voted FF in the past have no credibility now? How where those people to know that the **** would hit the fan like this? How was Gallagher supposed to know this back in his youth? FF let the Country down and people punished them at the polls for it.

Also remember that both Michael D Higgins and our current President have FF backgrounds too, but we are not abusing them over it.

Godge

Twelve days to go. There will be one more swing.

It could be a collapse in Gallagher's vote.

It could be the resurrection of Norris, Dana or Davis. Not enough to win the race but enough to make a decent showing.

It could be a swing back to Higgins to take him back to the top.

It could be Mitchell or McGuinness recovering to finish second.

I don't know, there have been a lot of swings already. Look at Norris, before people saw through him, he was topping the poll. Definitely one more swing to happen. I am waiting until next weekend's polls to call it.

hotmail.com

IngazZagni wrote: »

At the beginning of this campaign, I had no interest in voting for Gallagher. But I'm slowly thinking of doing just that now.

Why? He's not a politician, he's youthful (ish, well compared to the other candidates anyway) and I think he would do a good job in the roll as President. Most importantly, getting Ireland back to work. He would be the best man to meet business leaders from around the world and attract them here.

Let me say this as well. I have never voted for FF. But I think it's wrong to paint Gallagher with the FF brush. FF was by far the biggest party only a couple of years ago which means they had the vote of a huge percentage of the population. Are you saying all those who voted FF in the past have no credibility now? How where those people to know that the **** would hit the fan like this? How was Gallagher supposed to know this back in his youth? FF let the Country down and people punished them at the polls for it.

Also remember that both Michael D Higgins and our current President have FF backgrounds too, but we are not abusing them over it.

From my own observations our president doesn't meet with business leaders. They only meet ambassadors and other heads of states.

Have you bought his notion that he can create jobs?

gbee

IngazZagni wrote: »

At the beginning of this campaign, I had no interest in voting for Gallagher. But I'm slowly thinking of doing just that now.

I might just jump on the bandwagon. I haven't paid much attention to him, I wasn't going to vote for him but I hadn't ruled him out completely.

I just couldn't take him seriously ~

IngazZagni

hotmail.com wrote: »

From my own observations our president doesn't meet with business leaders. They only meet ambassadors and other heads of states.

Have you bought his notion that he can create jobs?

She has done in the past. With initiative though there is no reason why Gallagher can't do this a lot more. If I was to criticize McAleese it would that she seemed a tad lazy in visiting other nations to develop socio economic relations.

Annasopra

IngazZagni wrote: »

At the beginning of this campaign, I had no interest in voting for Gallagher. But I'm slowly thinking of doing just that now.

Why? He's not a politician, he's youthful (ish, well compared to the other candidates anyway) and I think he would do a good job in the roll as President. Most importantly, getting Ireland back to work. He would be the best man to meet business leaders from around the world and attract them here.

Em - do you actually realise we're not electing the CEO of the IDA?

hotmail.com

IngazZagni wrote: »

She has done in the past. With initiative though there is no reason why Gallagher can't do this a lot more. If I was to criticize McAleese it would that she seemed a tad lazy in visiting other nations to develop socio economic relations.

I wasn't criticising Mary - I was saying that Gallagher is being untruthful about what the president can do when it comes to creating jobs and meeting business leaders. It just doesn't happen - the government has to approve anything that the president does.

The presidency is a ceremonial role, not a ministerial position. The Dublin West byelection is better suited for Gallagher.

UDAWINNER

gallagher now the favourite with paddypower.

galway2007

UDAWINNER wrote: »

gallagher now the favourite with paddypower.

I think Gallagher will make it on transfers
I think he is the only one that is giving the Irish people a bit off hope
Higgins might as well not be in the race as he is saying nothing and he reminds me of Dustin the turkey
As for Mitchell just taking swipes at McGuiness so same old FG crap

gbee

galway2007 wrote: »

As for Mitchell just taking swipes at McGuiness so same old FG crap

I dismissed him very early on, did he ever say why or how he'd make a good candidate?

foggy_lad

hotmail.com wrote: »

I'm reading off twitter that the latest opinion poll for the Sunday Business post has Sean Gallagher on 39%, up 18 points since the last comparable poll. It's worth noting that the fieldwork for the poll was taken before the Prime Time debate on Wednesday where Gallagher performed badly.

Full Results:

Gallagher 39
Higgins 27
McGuinness 13
Mitchell 8
Norris 7
Davis 4
Dana 2

A remarkable result for Gallagher and he's now the favourite.

Mitchell is down 2% and McG is down 3%, people probably are bored of hearing about Northern Ireland. FG must be very embarrassed at the moment as their candidate is not even reaching 10%.

Norris, Davis and Dana are now completely irrelevant. Mitchell is only important in the context of where his transfers will go.

This poll cant be considered accurate and should not be considered a true representation of the state of the candidates.

Add it all up and it comes to 100% with NO dont know/undecided and NO option for not voting.

It is likely that someone has doctored the results in favour of Sean Gallagher by adding the undecided/not voting percentage onto Gallaghers total. THe last poll done by the same company had about 24% of people questioned as undecided!

thetonynator

foggy_lad wrote: »

This poll cant be considered accurate and should not be considered a true representation of the state of the candidates.

Add it all up and it comes to 100% with NO dont know/undecided and NO option for not voting.

It is likely that someone has doctored the results in favour of Sean Gallagher by adding the undecided/not voting percentage onto Gallaghers total. THe last poll done by the same company had about 24% of people questioned as undecided!

Don't knows and not voting are excluded from all the polls.

IngazZagni

mango salsa wrote: »

Em - do you actually realise we're not electing the CEO of the IDA?

I fail to see your point really. The President is a representative of the Irish people. Someone who will represent us all around the World. I just think Gallagher is in the now and will connect well with other leaders and enhance relations. You would be surprised how relations between two nations could be strained with a leaders opinion of society and how it should work. Michael D Higgins has strong political and economic viewpoints that could rub some the wrong way.

hotmail.com wrote: »

The presidency is a ceremonial role, not a ministerial position. The Dublin West byelection is better suited for Gallagher.

You may be right. But I think he made it clear that he doesn't want to be a politician, rather more a representative. A ceremonial role is about representing.

Mr.Micro

Gallagher looks a bit like Robocop without his helmet and a a bit like Dr.Evil. His answers are certainly robotic, maybe he is a robot.

cianisgood

I wouldn't vote Seán Gallagher in a million years because he wants to turn the 1916 centenary into a business expo. I am disgusted be this idea :mad:

Bigcheeze

foggy_lad wrote: »

This poll cant be considered accurate and should not be considered a true representation of the state of the candidates.

What part of the polling methodology do you have a problem with?

foggy_lad wrote: »

Add it all up and it comes to 100%

Normally a good thing in my experience

foggy_lad wrote: »

It is likely that someone has doctored the results in favour of Sean Gallagher

oh ffs!