Melbourne Cup and other Aus racing

Nulty

Moyenne Corniche ran 3rd in the first race at Caulfield on Guineas day. Winner of the York Ebor he seems to have transferred very well. He got a sweet ride on the rail the whole time and ran past a few to take third over a mile and a half. Saptapadi was drawn widest of all, dropped right back and traveled 3 wide all the way. Bauer went well too staying on for 5th from stall 11 of 18.

I think Moyenne Corniche could be a goer if he can get into the Melbourne Cup. He traveled unbelievably well throughout but had the perfect passage and doing his best work at the end as the rest of the Brits were.

Nulty

I see MC was 100/1 before that race with Bet365 and now 20s! Over reaction if you ask me but 100/1 was pretty ridiculous too. Saptapadi is still a decent price at 66/1. He was widest of all and saw too much daylight again like in the Ebor. Ellison clearly thinks he's the best of the two too.

Nulty

Black Caviar about to return in 10 mins. She's 10/1 ON.

Nulty

She creamed them.

UrbanSea

Nice one person thread Nulty. I shan't interrupt.

smartaform

Helmet's win in the Caulfield Guineas was very good. He'll be very hard to beat in the Cox Plate should he run there.

Nulty

You think he'll be brought to the UK smartaform? I see he broke the race record. Rumour is that he and Seepoy are coming over.

smartaform

I wouldn't be surprised. Both are outstanding horses.. I mean Sepoy has destroyed the old myth about Golden Slipper winners not backing up as 3yr olds.

I'd say it's also why S.M has bases around the world, eventually a champion will be born and it will then transfer into the main Godolphin stable.

Nulty

Saptapadi drawn 6 in the Caulfield Cup. I think he'll run well. Still think he's under rated. He ran a good race from the worst stall in the Ebor and again in Aus last time.

hucklebuck

I have gone for Jukebox Jury in the Melbourne Cup.

Nulty

Heres the card for Caulfield Cup day. The draw isn't posted on it though

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/Racing/meeting.aspx?meet_code=838579

You can see the draw on the right of this page.

http://www.2011caulfieldcup.com.au/caulfield-cup-day/

Nulty

A movie about Damien Oliver and Media Puzzle in the 2002 Melbourne Cup. Damien Oliver rode Dermot Welds horse to win the race days after his brother was killed in a riding accident.

http://www.theleader.com.au/news/local/news/entertainment/movies-cup-movie-is-a-winner/2322799.aspx

Nulty

Saptapadi got a shocking ride in the Caulfield Cup. Jockey turned stall 6 into stall 15 by dropping the horse well back. Its clear though that he'll probably never beat Lucas Cranach who had a similar ride from stall three and ran a brilliant race. Both took the turn about 6 to 8 widths off the rail. Only difference is Saptapadi will stay 2m and was asked to quicken like Lucas Cranach which was never going to happen.

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

A movie about Damien Oliver and Media Puzzle in the 2002 Melbourne Cup. Damien Oliver rode Dermot Welds horse to win the race days after his brother was killed in a riding accident.

http://www.theleader.com.au/news/local/news/entertainment/movies-cup-movie-is-a-winner/2322799.aspx

I saw that in the paper,looks good.

Where did I hear Manghar raced in Oz today?

Nulty

He ran in the Caulfield Cup from stall 5 and finished 5th IIRC. Always getting mixed up between him and Drunken Sailor. Both Cumanis ran well, one better than the other as DS was drawn very wide. Manighar hasn't won in two years though.

Nulty

I know Hugh Taylor tipped Lucas Cranach a week or two ago but I couldn't have backed him until I saw him run in Oz. If he can do what he did today after having an abscess and missing work then he looks a hot favorite for the Cup.

Only just occured to me to find it on youtube!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XkbJmV0JpZg

Nulty

At First Sight (ex-Ballydoyle) and Sahara Sun (Cumani) couldn't win the listed Bendigo Cup over night. Both are in the cut for the Cup but Sahara Sun could be pushed out if either of Ellisons pair go for and win the Lexus this weekend

Racecaller

Trends for the past 10 runnings of the Melbourne Cup might help narrow it down some:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-1-2
4yo: 3-11-71
5yo: 5-7-68
6yo: 1-6-49
7yo: 1-2-27
8yo+: 0-3-11
No huge bias on aged but horses aged 4 or 5 have won 8 of last 10 and the 2 exceptions were Makybe Diva winning it as a 6yo & 7yo.

Weights (in kilos)
Horses carrying 57.0 or more: 1-3-11
Horses carrying 54 to 56.5: 4-11-63
Horses carrying 51 to 53.5: 5-11-116
Horses carrying 50.5 or less: 0-5-38
If we just focus on more recent times, in the last 6 years:
Horses carrying 53.0 or more: 5-11-69
Horses carrying 52.5 or less: 1-7-66

Recent/Past Form
5 of 10 winners won a group race last time (other 5 beaten in Gp 1)
10 of 10 winners ran in the last 17 days
7 of 10 winners had run 4 to 6 times since 1st August (3 exceptions were trained outside of Aus&NZ)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2400m (1M 4F) or further
10 of 10 winners had run in 13 or fewer handicaps
10 of 10 winners had run in a group 1
6 of 10 winners had won a group 1
8 of 10 winners finished in first 4 in a Gp 1 (other 2 finished 6th/7th)
10 of 10 winners had won a group race
5 of 10 winners had won at the track (4 of 5 exceptions were having first course start)
10 of 10 winners had won a race with 14 or more runners

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Americain): 1170 (2-0-4)
Geelong Cup winner (Dunaden): 4102921 (2-3-7)
Turnbull Stakes winner (December Draw): 4104 (1-2-4)
Lexus Stakes winner: 5000039613 (1-2-10)
Memsie Stakes winner (King's Rose): 13 (1-1-2)
Australian Cup winner (Shocking): 14 (1-1-2)
Previous season's Victoria Derby winner (Lion Tamer): 41 (1-1-2)
Cox Plate winner (Pinker Pinker): 13 (1-1-2)
Mackinnon Stakes winner: 103 (1-1-3)
Previous season's VRC QE Stakes winner (Moudre): 0130 (1-1-4)
Brisbane Cup winner (Tullamore): 0601 (1-1-4)
Caulfield Cup winner (Southern Speed): 140087P (1-1-7)
Prix Kergolay winner (Jukebox Jury): 1 (1-0-1)
Sydney Cup winner (Stand To Gain): 10 (1-0-2)
The BMW Stakes winner (Cedarberg): P100 (1-0-4)
Underwood Stakes winner (Lion Tamer): 43 (0-2-2)
Irish St Leger winner (Jukebox Jury): 420 (0-2-3)
Makybe Diva Stakes winner (Littorio): 40 (0-1-2)
Caulfield Stakes winner (Descarado): 03 (0-1-2)
Yalumba/Caulfield Stakes winner (Descarado): 03 (0-1-2)
Herbert Power Stakes winner (Shewan): 084860 (0-1-6)
AJC Oaks winner (Absolutely): 000 (0-0-3)
AJC Derby winner (Shamrocker): 000 (0-0-3)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Caufield Cup, finishing 14230
4 of 10 winners ran in the Turnbull Stakes, finishing 4710
3 of 10 winners ran in the Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes, finishing 224
3 of 10 winners ran in the Memsie Stakes, finishing 410
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cox Plate, finishing 19
2 of 2 European-trained winners ran in Geelong Cup, finishing 11

Trainers
Lee Freedman (2-0-4) twice won the race with Makybe Diva in 2004 and 2005.
Dermot Weld (1-2-7) is still the only European trainer to have won the race twice (‘93&’02). In the past decade he has saddled the winner and 2 places from 7 runners. Only 1 of his 7 runners have finished out of the top half.
David Hall (1-2-5) and Graeme Rogerson (1-2-6) have each trained the winner and 2 placed finishers.
Katsuhiko Sumii (1-1-2) from Japan trained the 1-2 in 2007. Bart Cummings (1-1-13), Alain Royer-Dupre (1-0-1) and Mark Kavanagh (1-0-2) have also saddled the winner once since 2001.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-3-11) has gained 3 places in past 10 runnings. Tony Vasil’s (0-2-2) only 2 runners finished 3rd and 4th in 2004. Luca Cumani (0-2-5) has had the runner-up in this race in 2 of the last 4 years while Danny O’Brien (0-2-9) saddled Master O’Reilly to be placed in 2008 & 2009.
Record of Irish-trained runners: 1-3-13
Record of French-trained runners: 1-0-3
Record of British-trained runners: 0-7-31

Draw
Horses drawn 1-7: 2-13-70
Horses drawn 8-14: 7-10-70
Horses drawn 15 or higher: 1-7-88
Shocking did amazingly well to win from stall 21 in 2009 as there has been a large big draw bias towards being drawn in the centre.
The likely reasoning for this is that horses drawn on the inside will struggle to get a run if they do not break well while horses drawn wide may have to expend a lot of energy to get a good early position.
In the past 8 years 14 of the 16 horses to finish 1st or 2nd have been drawn between stalls 7 and 14.

Price
7 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
However 3 of the last 5 winners have been price 17/1, 16/1 and 40/1, so not a particularly strong trends race pricewise.
Favourites (2-3-11) have won just 2 of the last 10 runnings (both Makybe Diva), giving a level stakes loss of 2.00.

Racing Style
9 of 10 winners were held up in 8th to 16th place at halfway point
Hold-up horses are favoured but as with all big competitive races you will need luck in running.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

• Aged 4 or 5
• Carrying 53.0 kilos or more
• Ran in a group race in the last 17 days
• Run 4 to 6 times since 1st August (or trained outside Aus/NZ)
• Won a group race (preferably a group 1)
• Finished in the first 4 in a group 1
• Won over 2400m or further
• Won a race with 14+ runners
• Run in 13 or fewer handicaps
• Course winner (or having first run at Flemington)
• Ran in Caulfield Cup, Turnbull, Memsie or Dato' Tan Chin Nam
• Likes to be held up
• Drawn 7 to 14
• Trained by Lee Freedman or Dermot Weld

mr.jingle

So the big one's on in the morning, anybody any fancies for it?

Just for an interest and a reason to wake up ridiculously early I went for the Lucas Cranach purely based on the rookie trainer(Family prepared Makybe Diva to win this) and the fact Danedream had beaten Lucas Cranach this season by 5lengths and we all know what Danedream has done since!

Also had another each way bet on Lost in the Moment purely based on the horse's good draw even though he's a hold up horse he'll be flying late and will run into a place at least along also with the William Buick factor. I think this lad is a cracking jockey and although inexperienced in Australia(his first ride)

Montjeu

I took Lucas Cranach myself based on his constant improvement (his group 2 win in Germany was Zarkava-esque) and the fact he performed so well two weeks ago after coming back from an injury. Can't look past him at the price and has a favourable draw.

I have a feeling the two Godolphin horses will run big races, I won't be backing Modun for the first time this season so cue him winning by 5 lengths on the bridle.

Gavin "shels"

Jukebox Jury 14/1 and Fox Hunt 25/1 are the ones I like the look of.

Nulty

Lucas Cranach for me. I have Saptapadi before the draw and I'm hopeful of a respectful run.

It's basically an impossible race though.

Nulty

Unusual Suspect is overpriced. There should be a pace in the race with so many Euros in there and a couple of Johnstons horses in there with pretensions to front run and set a reasonable pace. Ground is supposed to be pretty quick by Euro standards which should suit. Could be worse picks I reckon.

Montjeu

What.A.Race.

Thought Lucas Cranach had it coming down the straight

lg123

where did lucas finish?

bellybuster12

lg123 wrote: »

where did lucas finish?

:00
1st (3) Dunaden
2nd (12) Red Cadeaux
3rd (9) Lucas Cranach
4th (1) Americain

lg123

just seen that, i had first and my better half backed lucas EW.

mr.jingle

Absolutely cracking race well worth getting up at 4am for! Thought Lucas was gonna do it and Lost in the Moment came with a charge around the turn too my heart was pumping. Still can't believe Dunedan won it I was sure Red Cadeaux had won it on the nod, great race roll on next year already:D

On a sidenote the Australian horses do look a poor bunch at the moment there was a time when a European horse going there had no chance now it's becoming a European benefit

UrbanSea

I wouldn't necessarily say a European benefit-I think that they just handicap them so they will have a chance in the race. Like the winner was going to go for the Gold Cup but didn't cos it'd ruin its mark

SlowJack

This must have been the best race I have seen in some time, what a close finish....wow

UrbanSea

What a year for Pearl

SlowJack

UrbanSea wrote: »

What a year for Pearl

Yeah, massive and also good for racing in total as Pearl always give back loads to the sport...:cool: