Irish times Poll. 05/10/11 -Gallagher in from nowhere!!!

jonniebgood1

A very interesting poll in the Irish Times just now.

Michael D Higgins: 23 (+5)

Sean Gallagher: 20 (+7)

Martin McGuinness: 19 (-)

Mary Davis: 12 (no change)

David Norris: 11 (-14)

Gay Mitchell: 9 (-11)

Dana Rosemary Scallon: 6 (-) http://www.irishtimes.com/blogs/politics/2011/10/05/stunning-changes-in-latest-the-irish-times-poll-on-presidential-election/

The big mover and biggest shock is clearly Sean Gallagher moving into second position. Higgins leading is not a surprise and McGuinness has a good starting position with Norris the big loser at this moment (not that surprising I guess).

The poll was on Monday and Tuesday of this week among a representative sample of 1,000 voters aged 18 and over, in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent.

With three weeks to go before the presidential election the poll indicates that unless there is some dramatic development it will come down to a battle between Mr Higgins, Mr Gallagher and Mr McGuinness with the issue being decided on transfers.

Mr Higgins does best when it comes to attracting second preferences, followed by Mr Gallagher while Mr McGuinness does worst of the leading candidates. http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1005/breaking75.html

So can Gallagher keep this trend going. I knew he had been coming across well but still am surprised by this result.

Doirtybirdy

ah yes the core ff vote is hardening behind their man.
He should get plenty transfers too from the other ff candidate Mary Davis

pablomakaveli

I doubt he will but i imagine this election will be more useful in raising his profile for another crack in 7 years in which he may do better.

niallers1

It appears that Gallagher is being rewarded for being positive and that Gay Mitchell is being punished for being Negative.


Will Gay Mitchell/FG finally put two and two toghether and turn positive for a change.

If they want to destroy MMcG they should start praising him:)

Yawlboy

I personally liked Gallaghers calm non-slagging approach to the debates, he let the rest of them waffle on and he talked on the things that are important to him. This makes him a great candidate and I think he will be there or there abouts in the election. Especially if the worse thing anyone can dig up on him is former membership of FF.

Teclo

Didn't know the baldie vote was so big.

jonniebgood1

I don't think his FF links are going to damage him as he was not prominent in their public image over the years. His P60 publication showed alot of volunteering on community groups without payment which contrasted to Davis 'charity' 150k role. I don't wanna sound like in his fanclub but he come across as more genuine than some of the other candidates and perhaps may be able to think outside the box with enthusiasm more than some.

Fr Tod Umptious

Norris on the slide eh, once the race started properly

Who would have thunk it, and he "the people choice, the one the people wanted in the race etc etc etc" only a week ago.

thebman

I thought Norris agreeing with the other candidates on things seemed fake like he was just trying to get appeal to their support bases in the hope to get a few transfers.

I think that opinion poll is spot on with my views of the candidates actually. The Vincent Brown debate was infinitely better than the RTE one allowing the candidates to mostly express their own views and control the debate themselves with only occasional interruptions by Vincent when he wanted it to get off a topic or challenge candidates on specific issues that were in the press.

I thought it was more neutral and balanced than the Ryan Tubridy one TBH.

lanod2407

Poll results are no surprise given the initial "debates" - Higgins comes across quite presidential and scholarly. McGuinness has massive experience and knows how to carry himself, and Gallagher has come from nowhere with a fresh approach and comes across as more genuine that might have been imagined.

One the other side - Dana is a non-runner, Mary Davis is getting battered over her many appointments and comes across cold and bland, Mitchell just isn't at the races and Norris is going backwards at a pace - he's just got too many questions hanging over him.

Questions -
1. Can Gallagher last the distance? What else can he offer to carry a camapign for the next 3 weeks? He'll need something new.
2. Can McGuinness shake off the negative issues?
3. Is there an Odi Roche in the deck - i.e. a runaway opinion poll-topper who melts on Election Day?
4. Is Mitchell as poor a candidate as his first week of campaigning would suggest, or is he simply the foil for Higgins?

Fr Tod Umptious

lanod2407 wrote: »

;

Questions -
1. Can Gallagher last the distance? What else can he offer to carry a camapign for the next 3 weeks? He'll need something new. - He may not need anything new, keep coming across as and alternative, no fuss, no BS honesty guy.
2. Can McGuinness shake off the negative issues? - Does not matter if he does or not, he will remain transfer unfriendly
3. Is there an Odi Roche in the deck - i.e. a runaway opinion poll-topper who melts on Election Day? - It's Adi Roche and yes that would be David Norris
4. Is Mitchell as poor a candidate as his first week of campaigning would suggest, or is he simply the foil for Higgins? - Will probably rebound with core FG support, but will not win

krd

jonniebgood1 wrote: »

I don't think his FF links are going to damage him as he was not prominent in their public image over the years. His P60 publication showed alot of volunteering on community groups without payment which contrasted to Davis 'charity' 150k role. I don't wanna sound like in his fanclub but he come across as more genuine than some of the other candidates and perhaps may be able to think outside the box with enthusiasm more than some.

Really. More genuine?

This is kind of Fianna Fail bacon and cabbage genuineness. The kind of genuine that isn't genuine at all. In Ireland, it's a coded word for thick. When people say genuine in Ireland or "down to earth" they mean thick. Nobody likes a know it all, or someone who uses big words.

No one involved in that party was ever anything more than a cute hoor. And the same for their supporters.

He's Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....

Buys at farm at 21. (I think it was himself and his father - but it sounds better that the "entrepreneur" who had been at been full time at agricultural college from the years he left school magicked up the money all on his owny ooh --- A business genius. Because that's all it took for a 21 year-old, to get a loan to buy a farm in the early 80s - business genius, an enterprising spirit, and genuineness. ) But then he goes to NUI Maynooth in 1985 -- How was the farm paying for itself? It would have been in his possession for less than 2 years. That would be some kind of business miracle.

Joins Fianna Fail in college.

In 1989 he began working full time as a political advisor to former Minister for Health Rory O'Hanlon --- Fianna Fail, when he was 28.

So where is the entrepreneur - HE WAS A PAID FIANNA FAIL POLITICAL HACK......Or one of these Fianna Fail entrepreneurs, where people in the party grow mysteriously wealthy.

He is then later parachuted in as the CEO of the Louth County Enterprise Board. Another political hack job.

Then as like any good Fianna Failer, he got his thumbs stuck into the building trade, with Smarthomes. Fianna Fail and the building trade; one hand washes the other, as they say in the Cosa Nostra.

Gets on television, on something that is a complete work of fiction; The Dragons Den. Because he was a Celebrity Fianna Fail Builder - A genius in the property trade.



Genuine my arse.

Genuine Fianna Fail


Genuine Fianna Fail


Genuine Fianna Fail

I smell a big fat rat. A BIG HAIRY FIANNA FAIL RAT


The stupidity and credulity of the Irish public is boundless.

Teclo

krd wrote: »

Really. More genuine?

This is kind of Fianna Fail bacon and cabbage genuineness. The kind of genuine that isn't genuine at all. In Ireland, it's a coded word for thick. When people say genuine in Ireland or "down to earth" they mean thick. Nobody likes a know it all, or someone who uses big words.

......

......

......

Genuine Fianna Fail


Genuine Fianna Fail


Genuine Fianna Fail

I smell a big fat rat. A BIG HAIRY FIANNA FAIL RAT


The stupidity and credulity of the Irish public is boundless.

So are you saying he has Fianna Fáil connections? Sherlock

KELTICKNIGHTT

krd wrote: »

Really. More genuine?

This is kind of Fianna Fail bacon and cabbage genuineness. The kind of genuine that isn't genuine at all. In Ireland, it's a coded word for thick. When people say genuine in Ireland or "down to earth" they mean thick. Nobody likes a know it all, or someone who uses big words.

No one involved in that party was ever anything more than a cute hoor. And the same for their supporters.

He's Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....Fianna Fail.....

Buys at farm at 21. (I think it was himself and his father - but it sounds better that the "entrepreneur" who had been at been full time at agricultural college from the years he left school magicked up the money all on his owny ooh --- A business genius. Because that's all it took for a 21 year-old, to get a loan to buy a farm in the early 80s - business genius, an enterprising spirit, and genuineness. ) But then he goes to NUI Maynooth in 1985 -- How was the farm paying for itself? It would have been in his possession for less than 2 years. That would be some kind of business miracle.

Joins Fianna Fail in college.

In 1989 he began working full time as a political advisor to former Minister for Health Rory O'Hanlon --- Fianna Fail, when he was 28.

So where is the entrepreneur - HE WAS A PAID FIANNA FAIL POLITICAL HACK......Or one of these Fianna Fail entrepreneurs, where people in the party grow mysteriously wealthy.

He is then later parachuted in as the CEO of the Louth County Enterprise Board. Another political hack job.

Then as like any good Fianna Failer, he got his thumbs stuck into the building trade, with Smarthomes. Fianna Fail and the building trade; one hand washes the other, as they say in the Cosa Nostra.

Gets on television, on something that is a complete work of fiction; The Dragons Den. Because he was a Celebrity Fianna Fail Builder - A genius in the property trade.



Genuine my arse.

Genuine Fianna Fail


Genuine Fianna Fail


Genuine Fianna Fail

I smell a big fat rat. A BIG HAIRY FIANNA FAIL RAT


The stupidity and credulity of the Irish public is boundless.

i take it you not a supporter of Sean Gallagher

KELTICKNIGHTT

think theres a red sea poll out next couple of days as vb debate wasn't included in this poll

unitedrover

Wonder will we start to see posters of him now that he is polling so well???

K-9

Teclo wrote: »

So are you saying he has Fianna Fáil connections? Sherlock

He alluded to FF a couple of times I think, he was very subtle about it so not sure.

Apparently Gallagher was a FF'er though.

MadsL

I'll leave the country if he wins*














*may be leaving anyway

krd

Teclo wrote: »

So are you saying he has Fianna Fáil connections? Sherlock

It's like an episode of Poirot.

Sean Gallagher is standing, holding a bloody hatchet, with blood all over him.

And Poirot says "I tink ze killhour, iz in ze room"

Except, no one else seems to notice.

He is pure bred Fianna Fail.

He's been marketed as a "businessman", But from what I can see, he's a Fianna Fail style entrepreneur. Which is someone who is politically embedded - and viola, like magic, profitable business opportunities present themselves. That seem to have easy financing.


If Smarthomes is doing well as a business, at this point, I cannot really tell how. If it is, fair enough. Possibly the Irish rich are doing very well at the minute.

lanod2407

Here's a question to stir the masses ............. if establishment politics has failed this little country so badly (& it absolutely has - see previous FF references), then do we need a firm and solid ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT vote to provide FF & FG with the required message that people won't put up with this ****e any longer?

Let's face facts - all that we've done (versus Greek riots and what the French do when they're pissed off) is whinge in the pub, kick FF out of government, and write messages on boards.ie ............... a lot of bluster and wind!
And what do we have now - FG ..... or "FF in disguise" as some would see them.

Do we need the boat to be royally rocked?

brownswiss

Doirtybirdy wrote: »

ah yes the core ff vote is hardening behind their man.
He should get plenty transfers too from the other ff candidate Mary Davis

........

That is the only logical explanation.... he did not perform well in the debate.....

As long as it is " anyone but Davis or Dana "

brownswiss

lanod2407 wrote: »

Here's a question to stir the masses ............. if establishment politics has failed this little country so badly (& it absolutely has - see previous FF references), then do we need a firm and solid ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT vote to provide FF & FG with the required message that people won't put up with this ****e any longer?

Let's face facts - all that we've done (versus Greek riots and what the French do when they're pissed off) is whinge in the pub, kick FF out of government, and write messages on boards.ie ............... a lot of bluster and wind!
And what do we have now - FG ..... or "FF in disguise" as some would see them.

Do we need the boat to be royally rocked?

...
I agree with your sentiments but i do not see any of the candidates rocking the boat....

FF supporters will be happy with their own 2 or MMG

unitedrover

MadsL wrote: »

I'll leave the country if he wins*

You mightnt need to....given that Sean Gallaghers main selling point is job creation.

krd

KELTICKNIGHTT wrote: »

think theres a red sea poll out next couple of days as vb debate wasn't included in this poll

The media are hammer and tongs after Norris.

And they'll let nonsense like Sean Gallagher present himself as a dynamic entrepreneur.

Sean Gallagher made his money through contracts with Fianna Fail builders who are now in NAMA. His clients were builders. - check out the website - it's like a NAMA who's who.

Fianna Fail - Builders - NAMA - Massive National debt - Destruction of the country

Fianna Fail - greasy handshakes and cute hoor - builders


There's a whole strata of Irish business, that's really based on connections, etc. You don't need to be a genius to make money once your in. There's been big builder honchos where's been revealed in court they could barely read, write or count. Why they were given billions to play with is anyone's guess.


Of course builders are going to buy from someone that far up the anus of Fianna Fail - One hand washes the other. Or why bother wash your hands, when you can get away with daylight robbery

Fianna Fail the builders' party ---- and they are all still having a party. And on money that didn't come from selling buildings and houses there were people to buy. They robbed the place.

View

lanod2407 wrote: »

Do we need the boat to be royally rocked?

I believe the electorate's answer to that was "No" when they last voted.

KELTICKNIGHTT

brownswiss wrote: »

...
I agree with your sentiments but i do not see any of the candidates rocking the boat....

FF supporters will be happy with their own 2 or MMG

don't see FF supporting mmg ,thats for sure

KELTICKNIGHTT

krd wrote: »

The media are hammer and tongs after Norris.

And they'll let nonsense like Sean Gallagher present himself as a dynamic entrepreneur.

Sean Gallagher made his money through contracts with Fianna Fail builders who are now in NAMA. His clients were builders. - check out the website - it's like a NAMA who's who.

Fianna Fail - Builders - NAMA - Massive National debt - Destruction of the country

Fianna Fail - greasy handshakes and cute hoor - builders


There's a whole strata of Irish business, that's really based on connections, etc. You don't need to be a genius to make money once your in. There's been big builder honchos where's been revealed in court they could barely read, write or count. Why they were given billions to play with is anyone's guess.


Of course builders are going to buy from someone that far up the anus of Fianna Fail - One hand washes the other. Or why bother wash your hands, when you can get away with daylight robbery

Fianna Fail the builders' party ---- and they are all still having a party. And on money that didn't come from selling buildings and houses there were people to buy. They robbed the place.

i think they should cancel the election and have it next year as the canidates on offer are all poor and save the taxpayers money as we need it to run the country instead of wasting it on a election

krd

unitedrover wrote: »

You mightnt need to....given that Sean Gallaghers main selling point is job creation.

This is Sean Gallagher, who made his money from NAMA Builders?

How is he going to create jobs?

Start another property bubble?

Something I need to spell out in large letters

Just because a big Fianna Fail potato, with connections in the building trade. Says he's going to create jobs. Doesn't mean he will or can.

Any presidential candidate who claims they can create jobs, is talking out of their arse.

They can't. This is the presidential election. We're not running an election for some kind of magical enterprise stimulator.

Is everybody gone stupid?..........Is the answer Yes?

If this man made money. It was not through some genius formula which can be used to enrich us all. It was through political affiliation.

How is he going to make us rich, like him? Get us all to join Fianna Fail?

But if we're all in Fianna Fail,,,,,Who will we screw the money out of?

Irish people are so stupid. They kept voting Charlie Haughey in again and again - because they saw the way he spent money and thought he'd use his magic beans to help the rest of us out - the magic beans was us. Charlie was rich through corruption.


Fianna Fail Corruption

Fianna Fail = Corrupt

Fianna Fail = Corrupt

Fianna Fail supporters = stupid or crooks

View

So, you are saying we should vote for Gallagher then because he's a FF-er? I'd missed that before you pointed it out.

Teclo

It will be a long 7 years for him if Gallagher wins.

riffmongous

View wrote: »

So, you are saying we should vote for Gallagher then because he's a FF-er? I'd missed that before you pointed it out.

no we shouldn't vote for Sean Gallagher because he's Fianna Fáil

unitedrover

Teclo wrote: »

It will be a long 7 years for him if Gallagher wins.

Sure is but isnt the Aras house alone enough reason to justify contesting the election.:D

caseyann

I am so sick of him saying he is an entrepreneur.Yes ff one lol

krd

View wrote: »

I believe the electorate's answer to that was "No" when they last voted.

The German people elected Adolf Hitler - look what happened.

The Irish people elected Fianna Fail - look what happened.

Democracy is one of these nice ideas. Some countries it just doesn't work.

The Irish people will vote for Sean Gallagher, because he's a rich paddy who's been on Television - dispensing business "advice" -- A Dragon - An Irish Dragon.

Wave a few baubles in front their faces and they're hypnotised.

They're so stupid. They believe nearly anything they're told. Gullible little children.

We've been over run by conmen in sharp suits and flash cars for decades. And the people don't seem to learn.



If you were a parent, would you just stand back and let children play with knifes and matches. No, you would not. That would be insanely irresponsible.

K-9

Apparently Gallagher has FF connections.

Subliminal messaging does work.

unitedrover

krd wrote: »

If you were a parent, would you just stand back and let children play with knifes and matches. No, you would not. That would be insanely irresponsible.

How could this equate to how we choose our president. We are all focusing too much on Gallaghers ff connection and why he is such a bad candidate. If you solely believe he is a bad choice, who are the best alternatives and what makes them better??

I, for one, wouldnt want Mitchell getting it.President should be independent of government. Same party so problem there. Michael D. -similiar problem but probably my leading choice at the moment. MMG- total opposite to Fine Gael. Could see him rejecting every bill thrown at him. Mary Davis- hard to judge. Dana- too much focus on constitution. Norris- shouts too much. seems to have a big ego and being a president will only inflate that.

K-9

krd wrote: »

We've been over run by conmen in sharp suits and flash cars for decades. And the people don't seem to learn.

But enough about McGuinness and Adams.

Let's move on. What is in the past is in the past. We are where we are.

donegal11

The fact Gallagher is doing so well says more about the field then him. Even if Fianna Fail did run an official candidate such as Brian Crowley or Éamon Ó Cuív I would fancy them to poll fairly well and hold their ground.

krd

Open your eyes!!!!!!!






Open your eyes!!!!!!!



Wake up!!!!!!!



Wake up!!!!!!!



Wake up!!!!!!!



The house is on fire!!!!!!!



The house is on fire!!!!!!!




Wake up before we're all dead!!!!!!!







Before it's too late !!!!!!!

krd

unitedrover wrote: »

How could this equate to how we choose our president. We are all focusing too much on Gallaghers ff connection and why he is such a bad candidate.

The reason we're focusing on Sean Gallagher's Fianna Fail connections, is because he his engaged in a deception. He's not independent. He's the Fianna Fails ticket in the election.

You may as well be voting for Brian Cowen.

If you solely believe he is a bad choice, who are the best alternatives and what makes them better??

This is Sean's thread. But, if you ask me, I would say the entire race is shaping up to be a car crash.

On some level, there's a serious problem with all the candidates.

They're are some candidates who are absolutely outrageous no no's. Martin and Dana. If anyone is silly enough to believe Martin has hung up his armalite and balaclava for good they're mistaken. Dana, again, won't sign any law that conflicts with her ultra-backward-Catholicism.

No one in this race is a beauty queen.

dunphy3

just heard on radio1 ,new poal out at 12 noon on rte taken on wensday

raymon

the man is a liar . I don't vote for liars

he lied about his recent support of FF but was caught out

KELTICKNIGHTT

krd wrote: »

The reason we're focusing on Sean Gallagher's Fianna Fail connections, is because he his engaged in a deception. He's not independent. He's the Fianna Fails ticket in the election.

You may as well be voting for Brian Cowen.





This is Sean's thread. But, if you ask me, I would say the entire race is shaping up to be a car crash.

On some level, there's a serious problem with all the candidates.

They're are some candidates who are absolutely outrageous no no's. Martin and Dana. If anyone is silly enough to believe Martin has hung up his armalite and balaclava for good they're mistaken. Dana, again, won't sign any law that conflicts with her ultra-backward-Catholicism.

No one in this race is a beauty queen.

how about some facts please
did he say he was FF outside he has connections too FF
in that case so,marin mcguinness is running for sein fein

KELTICKNIGHTT

raymon wrote: »

the man is a liar . I don't vote for liars

he lied about his recent support of FF but was caught out

like martin mcguinness ,a clever liar with experience

Sunnyisland

johnny b goode 1 wrote: »

A very interesting poll in the Irish Times just now.



The big mover and biggest shock is clearly Sean Gallagher moving into second position. Higgins leading is not a surprise and McGuinness has a good starting position with Norris the big loser at this moment (not that surprising I guess).

So can Gallagher keep this trend going. I knew he had been coming across well but still am surprised by this result.

He might surprise everyone I know a few people who liked his attitude and demeanor on TV the other night and are sick of the fighting coming from the Norris,mcguinness and mitchel camps,even though it looks like MMg came out the best so far of that.I am sure now we will have an in dept look into Sean gallagher's FF connections,I await and see.

unitedrover

Id like to know how deep his FF connections are....i mean its not like he is leader of the party. (although given their size now that wouldnt be too hard)

K-9

unitedrover wrote: »

Id like to know how deep his FF connections are....i mean its not like he is leader of the party. (although given their size now that wouldnt be too hard)

Apparently he was on the National Executive which would seem to mean he was a strong FF'er. As regards how much influence he had, going on reports on how Cowen operated, probably not much.

brownswiss

unitedrover wrote: »

How could this equate to how we choose our president. We are all focusing too much on Gallaghers ff connection and why he is such a bad candidate. If you solely believe he is a bad choice, who are the best alternatives and what makes them better??

I, for one, wouldnt want Mitchell getting it.President should be independent of government. Same party so problem there. Michael D. -similiar problem but probably my leading choice at the moment. MMG- total opposite to Fine Gael. Could see him rejecting every bill thrown at him. Mary Davis- hard to judge. Dana- too much focus on constitution. Norris- shouts too much. seems to have a big ego and being a president will only inflate that.

...
Being FG does not cause a conflict of interest for Mitchell. If he signs all the legislation presented to him it is better than dana's suggestion of referring it to the supreme court.

It is very difficult to find a totally independent candidate as they are all being financed by some party or group...

Truth is that None of them stand out as anything more than " Me Fein'rs "

brownswiss

krd wrote: »

The reason we're focusing on Sean Gallagher's Fianna Fail connections, is because he his engaged in a deception. He's not independent. He's the Fianna Fails ticket in the election.

You may as well be voting for Brian Cowen.





This is Sean's thread. But, if you ask me, I would say the entire race is shaping up to be a car crash.

On some level, there's a serious problem with all the candidates.

They're are some candidates who are absolutely outrageous no no's. Martin and Dana. If anyone is silly enough to believe Martin has hung up his armalite and balaclava for good they're mistaken. Dana, again, won't sign any law that conflicts with her ultra-backward-Catholicism.

No one in this race is a beauty queen.

....

I would include davis in the NO's.....

whywonder

I have to say- I think the stink that's being kicked up over his membership of FF is hilarious.

He was a member of FF at a time when *everyone* thought FF were the business. He's obviously got a history of getting mucked in on councils and the like of things he's interested in- so why should it be surprising that he did get involved in the National Executive? I think a more important question is why he *stopped* being involved?

I thought he handled himself very well on the Vincent Browne debate, tbh, and I've seen him progressing throughout the race so far. His message has been consistent and he seems to understand what the role of the president actually is.

That said, I don't know where my vote will go- but I do know where it won't be going, so Mr. Gallagher is still on my list of potentials.

Zubeneschamali

whywonder wrote: »

He was a member of FF at a time when *everyone* thought FF were the business.

Not me!