It's Official - 7 Candidates in the Presidential Race

hotmail.com

With Norris getting the backing of DCC tonight, 7 candidates will contest next month's presidential election. Never before has so many candidates been on the ballot paper for the presidency. Some interesting features:

No Fianna Failer in the contest
Sinn Fein contesting the election for the first time
Openly gay man in the race
Candidate that contested a race previously and lost is trying again
We're going to have endless tv and radio debates


So who will win? (poll would be nice)

It seems like Higgins is the favourite, as Norris and McGuiness aren't transfer friendly.

GerM

Smart PR work by Higgins today. He comes off well regardless by speaking of the right for Norris to contest the election. He'll win some undecided with that. If Norris didn't get the nomination, a large chunk of Norris voters would have given their vote to him if they weren't already going to and as it stands the same applies to transfers.

Interesting 3 horse race. The next few weeks are going to interesting.

MadsL

+1 on poll. As we are 'official n'all'.

thebman

I think the next 3 weeks will be annoying and then Higgins will be president TBH.

Sir Oxman

Have an undecided option on any poll please!

hotmail.com

Sean Gallagher has thrown in the towel today with his decision not to spend money on election posters.

Oh a full list for those that aren't aware of all the candidates:

Michael D. Higgins (Lab)
Gay Mitchell (FG)
Mary Davis (Ind)
Sean Gallagher (Ind)
Martin McGuinness (SF)
Dana (Ind)
David Norris (Ind)

With 4 independents in the race, it's going to be hard to promote the non-big party candidate tag, that candidates have used in the past..Dana made a big deal of being an independent during her last failed attempt in 1997.

FG have messed this up totally by picking Mitchell. Sloppy decision.

johngalway

Michael D. will win it out of those candidates.

KnifeWRENCH

Trinity professor (presumably a politics lecturer) on the news today said Mary Davis was very transfer friendly and could be a good outside bet.

At this stage Higgins looks like he'll take it though. Norris and McGuinness will also do well. Dana to be eliminated first, followed by Gallagher. Then.....Mitchell perhaps? I dunno, it's probably too soon to be predicting. The real campaigning and all the debates and stuff are all yet to come.

Sir Oxman

GerM wrote: »

Smart PR work by Higgins today. He comes off well regardless by speaking of the right for Norris to contest the election. He'll win some undecided with that. If Norris didn't get the nomination, a large chunk of Norris voters would have given their vote to him if they weren't already going to and as it stands the same applies to transfers.

Very clever by Higgin's team - the prefs should come rolling in from Norris supporters ensuring we have a President Higgins in a few weeks.
Looking at the proper polls done (not Quantum), barring a huge upset, it's Higgins.

BowWow

MadsL wrote: »

+1 on poll. As we are 'official n'all'.

Could we have a poll that "closed" say every five days? and be replaced with a new poll - we could see trends then.

Raskolnikov

KnifeWRENCH wrote: »

Trinity professor (presumably a politics lecturer) on the news today said Mary Davis was very transfer friendly and could be a good outside bet.

Whatever chance Mary Davis had, she has been torpedo'ed out of the water by the recent Shane Ross article - http://www.independent.ie/opinion/columnists/shane-ross/shane-ross-quango-queen-eyes-the-park-2886869.html

Raskolnikov

Paddy Power have a book up on the latest odds.

Next Irish President
Michael D.Higgins evens
David Norris 9/4
Martin McGuinness 3/1
Gay Mitchell 7/1
Mary Davis 12/1
Sean Gallagher 40/1
Dana Rosemary Scallon 40/1

Pretty much confirms what I thought. Davis, Gallagher and Scallon don't have a hope. Mitchell has all the charisma of a potato, so unless the other four candidates implode, he's not getting in. Higgins and Norris are the obvious favourites, and I suspect that the Sinn Féin connection will be enough to keep McGuinness out.

caseyann

Is there going to be a poll?



Reminder on Michael Higgins and his stand on Ireland politics and the corruption.
http://www.publicinquiry.eu/2010/06/11/expenses-scandal-confirms-political-system-is-still-rotten-to-the-core/

Michael D Higgins: (Labour TD)

I think it’s important that we acknowledge the new system is there and hope that people will realise that people like Ivor Callely are exceptional and allow the rest of us to address the really serious issues.

I would worry about my own sanity if I regarded it as politically important.

I do insist that presenting this exotic behaviour as anything typical would be quite irresponsible.

Clearly, Higgins does not think that alleged fraud by an Irish politician is a serious issue or politically important.

This attitude displays a disturbing ignorance of reality.

All corruption in Ireland ultimately originates from the corruption of the political system but people like Higgins have yet to even notice that fact never mind actually act against the disease.

He’s happy to wallow in ignorance and denial while blaming the media for everything.

caseyann

hotmail.com wrote: »

With Norris getting the backing of DCC tonight, 7 candidates will contest next month's presidential election. Never before has so many candidates been on the ballot paper for the presidency. Some interesting features:

No Fianna Failer in the contest
Sinn Fein contesting the election for the first time
Openly gay man in the race
Candidate that contested a race previously and lost is trying again
We're going to have endless tv and radio debates


So who will win? (poll would be nice)

It seems like Higgins is the favourite, as Norris and McGuiness aren't transfer friendly.

I think you will have to pm a mod to ask for a poll Hotmail.

Dont Irish love a good fight to the finish

Liam Byrne

3 acceptable ones for me to choose from, but it'd probably be Higgins followed by Davis & Scallon, in that order.

thebman

Looking at a purely top level, there is pretty much a party and independent candidate for every view point pretty much there except maybe business at a party level (ignoring all the controversies obviously).

hotmail.com

thebman wrote: »

Looking at a purely top level, there is pretty much a party and independent candidate for every view point pretty much there except maybe business at a party level (ignoring all the controversies obviously).

Sean Gallagher is going down the business route.

No Fianna Failer, so not every viewpoint is available:D

Bannasidhe

hotmail.com wrote: »

Sean Gallagher has thrown in the towel today with his decision not to spend money on election posters.

Oh a full list for those that aren't aware of all the candidates:

Michael D. Higgins (Lab)
Gay Mitchell (FG)
Mary Davis (Ind)
Sean Gallagher (Ind)
Martin McGuinness (SF)
Dana (Ind)
David Norris (Ind)

With 4 independents in the race, it's going to be hard to promote the non-big party candidate tag, that candidates have used in the past..Dana made a big deal of being an independent during her last failed attempt in 1997.

FG have messed this up totally by picking Mitchell. Sloppy decision.

Am not sure how independent all of the independents really are - isn't it the case that Gallagher has FG links while Davis has FF links? If that's so then Dana and Norris are the only real independents.

Liam Byrne

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Am not sure how independent all of the independents really are - isn't it the case that Gallagher has FG links while Davis has FF links? If that's so then Dana and Norris are the only real independents.

Davis has FF links ? :eek:

I'm rearranging my choices to Michael D followed by Dana in that case!

Sheesh! It really is a case of trying to extract the best of a bad lot!

LordSutch

hotmail.com wrote: »

So who will win? (poll would be nice)

There is a poll running, in another thread, just beside yours

johngalway

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Davis has FF links ? :eek:

Hur-hur-hur

Don't read Michael D's Wikipedia page Liam. That's all I'll say.

loyatemu

Raskolnikov wrote: »

Paddy Power have a book up on the latest odds.

Next Irish President
Michael D.Higgins evens
David Norris 9/4
Martin McGuinness 3/1
Gay Mitchell 7/1
Mary Davis 12/1
Sean Gallagher 40/1
Dana Rosemary Scallon 40/1

usually a mugs game to second guess the bookies, but that's an attractive price for Davis, if she can get ahead of Mitchell she might have a chance...

Liam Byrne

johngalway wrote: »

Hur-hur-hur

Don't read Michael D's Wikipedia page Liam. That's all I'll say.

Ah now.....that was years ago, and everyone makes mistakes........at least he got out almost as soon as he got himself involved!

hotmail.com

Bannasidhe wrote: »

Am not sure how independent all of the independents really are - isn't it the case that Gallagher has FG links while Davis has FF links? If that's so then Dana and Norris are the only real independents.

Gallagher has FF links. He was a member of the National Executive of the party for a period.

Davis is a bit of an unknown entity at the moment - she's been sailing through the campaign so far pretty much unnoticed, except for some attention on the number of state boards she was on.

I don't think I would describe Dana as an independent, I prefer the phrase crazy lunatic when it comes to her label.

johngalway

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Ah now.....that was years ago, and everyone makes mistakes........at least he got out almost as soon as he got himself involved!

LOL.

I can see Albert Reynolds smiling from here That's almost country'n'western!

johngalway

hotmail.com wrote: »

Gallagher has FF links. He was a member of the National Executive of the party for a period.

Yeah, heard Sean explain himself one day on the radio and have to say I wasn't terribly convinced. Though he's a dead man running IMO especially with the weak environmentally unfriendly reason for not having money, sorry, posters

haymur

Will the vote be PR or a stright single X

ArmaniJeanss

haymur wrote: »

Will the vote be PR or a stright single X

Single Transferable Vote, i.e, you vote 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 as far as you wish.
Need 50%+1 vote to be elected.

dashboard_hula

My parents are voting Michael D, I'm voting Norris, the brother is raging that he moved to Oz 2 weeks before Martin McGuinness announced his candidacy, Gay Mitchell gives everyone I know the screaming creeps, Dana reminds me of your one from Harry Potter...who was that crazy psycho in pink who took over Hogwarts for a while?...and I have never heard of Sean Gallagher ("from the telly " - Mam) or Mary Davis.

Despite the controversy over Norris, it'll take a lot to shift him and/or Michael D from the top 2 spots I think. I genuinely cannot see big numbers for Martin McGuinness either.