Group C qualification for 1/4 finals? Possible outcomes..?

Can anyone explain what the permuations of the group?

Am I right in saying that if Italy get a bonus point against the US then we need to at least draw as losing with a bonus point we would lose on the head to head rule and be out of the world cup?
If Italy don't get a bonus point against the US then if we lose to them by 7 points or less we would go through as runners up as we'd have one more point than them?
To win the group we must win the match.

Colm R

Assuming Australia get a winning bonus point against Russia, then this is what can happen:

- Italy win against USA with a bonus point
We must win the game or we are out.

- Italy win against USA without a bonus point.
A loosing bonus point against Italy is sufficient for second place.

Colm R

Colm R wrote: »

- Italy win against USA with a bonus point
We must win the game or we are out.

We would come second in the group with a draw also, no? (draw is unlikely but....)

CatFromHue

Assuming Italy get the bonus point win tomorrow then the table would be

Ire.....13Pts
Oz......10Pts
Ita......10Pts

I assume Oz will get a bonus point win over Russia which will leave them on 15Pts.
If we lose to Italy we're out then.
If we lose to Italy and get a losing bonus point we're out due to the head to head rule.
If we lose to Italy but get a losing bonus point and a 4 try bonus point and they don't then we're through. As group winners due to the head to head rule I think.
If we win we're through as group winners.

flynninio

i reckon steady eddie mite do us huge favour and stop italy gettin bonus point. he rested lot of players for last game so can kinda see them giving there all for this one.

Quint2010

CatFromHue wrote: »

Assuming Italy get the bonus point win tomorrow then the table would be

Ire.....13Pts
Oz......10Pts
Ita......10Pts

I assume Oz will get a bonus point win over Russia which will leave them on 15Pts.
If we lose to Italy we're out then.
If we lose to Italy and get a losing bonus point we're out due to the head to head rule.
If we lose to Italy but get a losing bonus point and a 4 try bonus point and they don't then we're through. As group winners due to the head to head rule I think.
If we win we're through as group winners.

If we were to lose to Italy but get a losing bonus point and score four tries would that mean we would top the group (assuming Italy dont score four tries?)

Ireland 15 pts
Australia 15 pts
Italy 14 pts

Also-in that scenario what would be the story if Italy were to get a winning bp? We would all be level on 15 pts? what happens then?

Colm R

glasso wrote: »

We would come second in the group with a draw also, no? (draw is unlikely but....)

A draw didn't even cross my mind, but yes we would come second.

Has there even been a draw yet?

unitedrover

I doubt if we would lose the match if we scored four tries. Italy are a mainly defensive outfit and unless theres huge defensive errors ,theres not going to be a big try count.

Mountjoy Mugger

Quint2010 wrote: »

Also-in that scenario what would be the story if Italy were to get a winning bp? We would all be level on 15 pts? what happens then?

In order:

The winner of the match in which the two tied teams have played each other shall be the higher ranked;

The team which has the best difference between points scored for and points scored against in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;

The team which has the best difference between tries scored for and tries scored against in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;

The team which has scored most points in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;

The team which has scored most tries in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;

Should the tie be unresolved at the conclusion of steps 1 through 5, the team that is higher ranked in the updated Official IRB World Rankings on October 3, 2011

Columbia

Quint2010 wrote: »

Also-in that scenario what would be the story if Italy were to get a winning bp? We would all be level on 15 pts? what happens then?

If more than two teams end up on level points then the head-to-head records go out the window and it is decided on point difference.

CatFromHue

It would get very technical Quint2010.

If at the completion of the pool phase two or more teams are level on match points, then the following criteria shall be used in the following order until one of the Teams can be determined as the higher ranked:

1.The winner of the match in which the two tied teams have played each other shall be the higher ranked;
2.The team which has the best difference between points scored for and points scored against in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
3.The team which has the best difference between tries scored for and tries scored against in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
4.The team which has scored most points in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
5.The team which has scored most tries in all its pool matches shall be the higher ranked;
6.Should the tie be unresolved at the conclusion of steps 1 through 5, the team that is higher ranked in the updated Official IRB World Rankings on October 3, 2011.


I assume if we lose to the Italians in the situation you mention that since we lost to the Italians but beat the Ozzies and the Ozzies lost to the Italians but beat us that point 1 above would not matter.

At the moment we have a +71 points difference, the Ozzies are +79, and the Italians are +10. It's safe to assume that the Ozzies will be between +120 and +150 after they play the Russians and so be pool winners.

If we get a losing bonus point against Italy we're within 7 so it would depend on if they can beat the US by 54 points or more.

durkadurka

Colm R wrote: »

A draw didn't even cross my mind, but yes we would come second.

Has there even been a draw yet?

Nope. A draw puts us on 15, same as aus and we win the group due to better head to head. Italy would only have 12.

tolosenc

If Italy get a BP win of Eddie's Eagles, then if we get two or more points from our match against them, we win the group, 1 or 0 and we go out. If we get 2 and they get 5, there's a 3 way tie for first, but I really don't see Ireland scoring 30+ points and losing, so effectively, we're good.

USA will need to beat Italy in order to qualify directly for 2015, so they'll be up for that game.

petebricquette

Well, after today we'll need to win. Has to be a win or bonus point win to make sure there's no doubt. Then Oz will go through in second place based on points difference and the head-to-head against the Italians.

Third_Echelon

Yeah, we can't afford to mess around with any "sure that'll do" scenarios. We need to win the Italy game and top the pool... end of.

justsomebloke

petebricquette wrote: »

Well, after today we'll need to win. Has to be a win or bonus point win to make sure there's no doubt. Then Oz will go through in second place based on points difference and the head-to-head against the Italians.

Huh? Oz only have to worry about points difference and head to head if Italy beat us with a bonus point and we don't get 2 bonus points. Other then that we just have to win or draw to come top. We could even get through if we get a 2 bonus point loss, however we would be back on the other side of the draw.

sedantez

I guess we have to treat the Italy match like a pre-quarter final match. Its all or nothing.

We have a much stronger side so should win comfortably. Added to this Italy will be tired having just played a physical game Vs USA.

Bring it on.

justsomebloke

going to close this as the match thread is pretty much dealing with the same thing at the moment so no point doubling up posts