Xtract Energy Plc

Thargor

The next big multibagger penny share apparently, I stuck a few grand on it today @ 1.37 p, probably going very long (years). It might drop again on Monday though, there are II's dumping stock that they bought in the recent 1.25p placing but interest is building now, seems to be getting mentioned all over the place all of a sudden.

Great read:

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AXTR.L&threshold=0&it=le&action=detail&id=8742811

Credit to Troutfisher on another board for this fundamentals summary:

For any of you who have considered buying XTR.

I believe its now near bottom.

It has just re-listed as an E&P after a reverse takeover with 1.5 Bil
Share with an issue at
1.25p.

40% of the former shareholding is owned by Walter Energy who are
rumoured
to be stalked by Anglo and BHP.

Dutch North Sea

Chevron / Aba Dabi farm in are due to drill in the Dutch North Sea
in the next couple of moths using this Jackup for 280 BCF XTR 5% of
revenues
free carried. Elko now XTR found the Gas where others had been
drilling in the wrong place.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?oldmmsi=636011805&zoom=10&olddate=7/16/2011%204:13:00%20AM


Danish North Sea

Noreco are drill starting December ( Due to Rig delays)
using this rig.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?oldmmsi=563486000&zoom=10&olddate=7/10/2011%204:28:00%20AM

The drill is on Luna to prove up a 3 Lead structure the IF the
Hydrocarbons have migrated from the Central Grabens could have P10

STIIOP of 28 Bbbls.

XTR 33%

Australia

Julia Creek Queensland

Oil Shale

JORC 2 Bbbls Oil recoverable 50% COS
There is a Shale moratorium by the QL Gov dependant on environment
assessment of best technology but it looks like a decision will be
taken
Q1 2012.

Morocco

Tarfaya

75% XTR 25% a Saudi Prince.

Oil Shale in the same area as SLE San Leone are running a test plant.

There listing doc state they are arranging a meeting with the Moroccan
authorities to broaden the HOA.

Turkey

Many licenses farmed down between 5 - 9%

There is more but I wont bore yo with it

The Listing Doc is worth a read.

Current price 1.46

http://www.xtractenergy.co.uk/documents/Xtract_Admission_Document_260811.pdf

Anyone else on here had a look yet?

neil.p.b

Was looking at them a few months ago but the market cap didn't show much value, circa £40 million. Trouts post on rum brought it to my attention again. Much more attractive at these prices considering they've 100% of Elko now and capped at around £18m. All about the Danish prospects for me, everything else is just an added bonus for me.

Their risked NAV for just the danish sea play should have them trading around 3p, though most things aren't at the minute. Success in Luna should put them at around 12p (COS 4.9%). Success in the Lead A prospect would have them close to a £1 (COS 2.3%).

Only thing that worried me was the placing at 1.25p when the previous few weeks trading was at 3.75p, not impressive stuff from the BOD. I'm looking to get in but really want 1.1p, will be watching over the next few days. Aim is to have a 100% free carry pre Luna spud, barring another market meltdown!

Thargor

The chances of success are low and it could drop back to below the placing price but for the sake of a couple of grand I just wanted a few 100k of these in the drawer in case they do ever see £1 or more, I dont mind forgetting about them for a few years if I have to.

neil.p.b

Did you buy more after your first 100k batch on friday?

COS is low, but the main point for me is even with the COS it's trading well below it's NAV and as spud or td approaches i'd be confident that i'd be able to top slice my original investment and still leave 50%-66% free carried. Watching closely this week.

Thargor

Nope, buying more tomorrow, more to hold and more to be used to topslice same as you.

Thargor

Tried for 200k today and couldn't get it despite offering 1.32 when the price was down at 1.25, going to try tomorrow again, looks like it will be going below placing price so depending on how fast it falls I might hold off and wait for it to bottom.

neil.p.b

Surprising it didn't go through since it was over the mid. Count yourself lucky i guess. It already went through the placing price (which i don't see as important or level of support anyway) There was a delayed sell of 1 million shares at 1.20. Still want 1.10 or lower.

Thargor

What made you predict 1.10?

neil.p.b

Not a prediction. But it provided somewhat of a support line last year. Add that to the fact that it's in an obvious downtrend, lacking pi interest and sentiment, and no news due i just think it's a possibility.

Thargor

Meh, well I dont care about a hundred quid or so either way as long as Im in, I will be waiting now before I make my main purchase though.

Thargor

I said I was going to wait but I got 200k today @ 1.3p. From now on Im saving cash to go bargain hunting if/when Greece goes.

Thargor

Down below 1p today, another 25% loss on a punt currently showing on my portfolio, this year is a total write-off.

Thargor

Nicely in profit here now after the last couple of days, I know I should sell now and buy back the next time it drops, we could be waiting a long time for any news but to be honest I couldnt be bothered for the sake of a few extra percentage points, this is still a very long term hold for me.

Good call on the bottom though Neil, did you get in?

neil.p.b

Thargor wrote: »

Nicely in profit here now after the last couple of days, I know I should sell now and buy back the next time it drops, we could be waiting a long time for any news but to be honest I couldnt be bothered for the sake of a few extra percentage points, this is still a very long term hold for me.

Good call on the bottom though Neil, did you get in?

NO!! Got caught up in all the hysteria last week on RUM and it went into RMP. Lesson learned, it was a glaring bounce at 1 i just took my eye off the ball. Missed an easy 40% so far. I read somewhere that Australia are allowing a shale production plant to open next year for testing as well?? That'd be huge.

Thargor

Yep, its already producing small amounts for testing apparently:

Queensland Shale Oil production by the end of
the year.

By the end of 2011, QER will be
producing Stuart medium sweet
synthetic crude oil (“Stuart medium
sweet”) as an intermediate
product. The synthetic crude oil
then will be refined onsite into
ultra low sulphur diesel and jet
fuel in sufficient quantities to
facilitate QER’s fleet engine testing
and fuel certification program.
On its own and in concert with
QER, Shale Tech International
continues to operate its R&D
center and fully equipped pilot
plant in Colorado to further
develop the Paraho II™ technology

http://www.oilshaleassoc.org/documents/OSU6-11.pdf

Old but good post from Troutfisher on iii:

I always kind of like reading this one too;

An oldy, but a goody;

Xtract Energy (XTR), it is a really stonking bet for the patient and insouciant. The reason is that the key long term asset, Julia Creek, really is worth £10+ a share if it comes off - even if it takes years and years to come to fruition. It is here worth noting that Julia Creek may well go nowhere in 2011 and that it is therefore improper to exclude =tract from any naps list for 2011. But I take the view that sooner or later, Walter, having taken control of Western Coal, are bound to develop Xtract. It is purely a matter of time. Therefore it is far too risky to stay out of Xtract. Further, there is virtually no chance of xtract proving badly managed or underfinanced. I am confident that others will press Walter to deliver in 2011.

Xtract may be one of those pretty common natural resources stocks whose prices have to fall off a cliff before recovery, when the 'real money' is made on them. If people think that the prices of these stocks, where they succeed, don't have massive knock-backs, they haven't looked at the 5-year charts. xtract was 10p back in 2006. Currently 1.5p and fully funded. XTR underperformed in 2010 because of the problem with the tarikiz oilfield in Turkey. This oilfield is geologically complex, with various layers in it that contain water. It seems hard for the seismic to get to grips with this Western Turkey geology; it certainly tripped the company up. But it does not mean that the acreage is worthless. besides, there are several other targets in the Turkey portfolio. These really need some clear heads and some good geologists and, as ever in exploration, good luck.

The oilshale assets in Julia Creek in Queensland and also in Morocco, albeit with no numbers as yet, are potentially worth a fortune. There is probably some 3 billion recoverable barrels of oil. This is not idle speculation. For Julia Creek has been surveyed. At an oil price approaching $100 a barrel, this would be three hundred billion dollars worth of oil. It needs mining, and processing, which is not cheap and, as matters stand must entail =tract being heavily diluted. But even so, using the estimated production cost of about $35- $40 a barrel or thereabouts, the net of profit is in the range 100 to 200 billion dollars. Kindly contrast this with Xtract's current capitalisation of £20m, given shares in issue of 1.1bn standing at 1.5p offer.

Any "normal" company with such an asset would shout it from the rooftops. But Xtract plays it down. They now say it will be 10 to 20 years to do something with the asset. It is simply not necessary to run this business with so deferred an outlook. Sooner or later - and maybe sooner - someone in the mining game is going to get serious about Julia Creek.

As for the 51% stake in Elko Energy (They have now taken over Elko Energy), this is potentially a blockbuster. The company described its potential at the AGM last year as "ultratransformational". It all turns on whether the oil has migrated from the source rocks some 50km away to the big offshore Danish structures seen on the seismic. This is a long way but oil can migrate further. If it has made it to those structures, and the reservoir rocks are good and there is a seal to hold the oil in, it could be of huge importance. Forget the Falklands. We are here talking truly mega bucks.

I think that, with the right awareness in the market about the Elko acreage, the Desire/FOGL/Rockhopper investors could decide to jump on board Xtract. If that were to happen, there would a buying and trading frenzy ahead of drilling, only three months away. They are targeting a massive prospect in Denmark and the drilling starts in just three months

This is not a straightforward investment. It probably has the greatest upside of just about any stock one could find. 1.5p could go to 30p. And 30p could go to £3. And £3 would be cheap if the Julia Creek and Elko assets are as good as they might be.

My position in Xtract is that it's daft to have none. But it's equally daft to have too many since, if it comes good, you don't need too many to make an absolute fortune.

Looking forward to digging this thread up in a few years and saying I made a few million from a penny share*

*Im joking, DYOR.

Grecco

This is doing really well in the last few weeks, wasnt keeping an eye on it but I`m sorry I didnt throw a bit more cash than I did back at the 1.- 1.3p range.

Anyone else still bought in ?? and throw some light on the current state

Thargor

The only bright spot in my portfolio these days

marcopolosou

Hi Grecco, below is a copy of post by deepcalm on iii. (All credits to deepcalm).

I have pulled together an unrisked valuation in a spreadsheet that can be opened through the link below.

I have used the volumes from the May CPR and have modelled three scenarios: XTR making either £2, £4 or £6 profit per barrel of oil.

I have assumed that we will have 2bn shares in circulation by the time we are in production.

The really interesting point that comes across is how much Lead A is worth if Luna is successful. In fact, XTR management have already outlined that Lead A and Luna may be one joined prospect.

Using the mean unrisked basis in the CPR, I have modelled a share value of between 106p and 317p per share. Looking at the two extremes of the CPR, I have modelled the following:

The P90 unrisked scenario at £2 per barrel profit gives a share value of 28.3p
At the other extreme the P10 unrisked scenario at £6 per barrel profit gives a share value of 646.9p per share.

Here is the link to my file; I would welcome critical review and any feedback...

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/48515849/XTR%20Valuation%2007Nov2011.xls

So the message is simple, if we hit any hydro-carbons in Luna, for goodness sakes, don't sell your shares until they have drilled Lead A!

neil.p.b

Still kicking myself for missing my <1.1p entry. Was hoping for a retest of 1p again but 1.55 has stayed strong.

For what its worth, if i had of gotten in i'd be de-risking around 25% at current levels and another 25% on any spike on spud news. Currently at the top of 1.55 - 2.05 3 week trading range and has some major resistance at 2.50, if it does break through should get to 3.20. There won't be any news on the shale law until early next year and even though Luna may be have big OIP, COS is still only 4.9%. Well done to all who got in on the lows.

marcopolosou

Hi Niel.p.b

I think that Noreco put the COS at 14%. (See page 13)

http://www.noreco.com/Documents/Q%20Presentations/Noreco%20Q3%20presentation.pdf

Luna DK 1/11 47% COS 14% 196-490 Q4-11

GL.

marcopolosou

For your info.

From: http://hugin.info/138447/R/1558391/481433.pdf

---

page 5 bottom

(Report for the third quarter 2011 - Norwegian Energy Company ASA)

HEALT H, SAFETY, ENVIRONMENT AND QUALITY
The planning for Noreco’s upcoming operated well, the exploration
well Luna in license DK 1/11 on the Danish sector, is
well underway.

neil.p.b

marcopolosou wrote: »

Hi Niel.p.b

I think that Noreco put the COS at 14%. (See page 13)

http://www.noreco.com/Documents/Q%20Presentations/Noreco%20Q3%20presentation.pdf

Luna DK 1/11 47% COS 14% 196-490 Q4-11

GL.

My mistake in part, the COS of 4.9% is for oil. Then 5% COS for gas, 9.8% overall. Thats from the CPR. Not sure where Noreco got 14%.

http://www.xtractenergy.co.uk/activities/elko_energy.php

marcopolosou

neil.p.b wrote: »

My mistake in part, the COS of 4.9% is for oil. Then 5% COS for gas, 9.8% overall. Thats from the CPR. Not sure where Noreco got 14%.

http://www.xtractenergy.co.uk/activities/elko_energy.php

HI Niel,

You are right regarding the Elko docs, but Noreco is the operator and must know what they are on about.

No matter what, the Luna drill is a very high risk drill. It is in fact an appraisal drill. Let us hope that lady fortune and the Gods of migration in chalk are with us (4.9% or 14%). Signs of migration will do me.

The chalk in the coffee fault and in the Siri causeway are the same I believe.

GL.

marcopolosou

neil.p.b wrote: »

My mistake in part, the COS of 4.9% is for oil. Then 5% COS for gas, 9.8% overall. Thats from the CPR. Not sure where Noreco got 14%.

http://www.xtractenergy.co.uk/activities/elko_energy.php

HI Niel,

You are right regarding the Elko docs, but Noreco is the operator and must know what they are on about.

No matter what, the Luna drill is a very high risk drill. It is in fact an appraisal drill. Let us hope that lady fortune and the Gods of migration in chalk are with us (4.9% or 14%). Signs of migration will do me.

The chalk in the coffee fault and in the Siri causeway are the same I believe.

GL.

neil.p.b

I hope it works out for you all. If it drops back to 1.60ish i'll be joining in!

marcopolosou

Hi Guys,

A little info on the activity around Luna

PA Resources hit oil in Denmark
http://offshore.no/international/article/Little_John_looks_good_

Broder Tuck encountered gas.
http://www.ens.dk/en-us/info/news/news_archives/2011/sider/20110826brodertuck-2explorationwell.aspx

Interesting about Lille John and to add to that there was also the Broder Tuck discovery not far from there. If you look at the map of the area where Luna is, then you will notice that Luna is approx. at the centre of the two prongs of the crescent shaped producing area (running SSE and NNE of the Central Graben. Our interest is in the Coffee Soil Fault and the chalk there. In each of the two crescent prongs, there are oil discoveries (Siri and Nini in the northern prong and Broder Tuck and Lille John in the southern prong). Not so long ago traces of hydrocarbons were encountered by the onshore Loeve 1 exploration well on Jutland (Ringkobing-Fyn High area). As far as I can ascertain by reading various publications, the chalk in the Coffe Soil seems to be similar to that in the prongs (I am not a geologist, so can be wrong).

marcopolosou

Seems like game on. For the first time Noreco is mentioned in connection with Maersk Resolve Rig.

Maersk Resolve Maersk Contractors Maersk, Dong, Noreco JACK-UP Dec. 2012

http://offshore.no/Prosjekter/Rigg-Locator.aspx

marcopolosou

Luna activity???

The Geosund seems to be at the approx. location of LUNA.

It has been in the area since:

2011-11-10 13:49 GEOSUND Midday position North Sea 54.56984 6.29715 0.8 348

56.31983˚ / 6.104475˚ (Map)

Flag: Norway

Ship Type: Dredger

Status: Anchored/Moored

Speed/Course: 0.2 kn / 246˚

Length x Breadth: 98 m X 18 m

Draught: 6.9 m

Destination: KEEP CLEAR 1NM

Received (629): 0h 42min ago

(AIS Source: Hyde)

Show Vessel's Track

Distance to...

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?mmsi=258083000&centerx=6.104475&centery=56.31983&zoom=10&type_color=3#

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/showallphotos.aspx?imo=9232694


http://www.dofsubsea.com/en-US/Our-Equipment/Vessels.aspx

http://www.dof.no/pv_obj_cache/pv_obj_id_5A47729680CFFE92610959AC2FE71396695C0200/filename/Geosund.pdf

Any views?

Cheers

Thargor

Hiya Marco.

Looks promising but following ships like this always comes to nothing doesnt it, especially in heavy traffic like in the North Sea, I expect this to explode on news though.

Why not post it on the main XTR board on iii if you want analysis? I dont think Ive seen any of your info there, are you in Ireland?

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:XTR.L&display=discussion

marcopolosou

Thargor wrote: »

Hiya Marco.

Looks promising but following ships like this always comes to nothing doesnt it, especially in heavy traffic like in the North Sea, I expect this to explode on news though.

Why not post it on the main XTR board on iii if you want analysis? I dont think Ive seen any of your info there, are you in Ireland?

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:XTR.L&display=discussion

Hi Thargor,

I post on LSE as marcopolo69. I think I have seen you on the iii, not sure.

I have posted this info on Lse today. I do not post on iii.

I think that the GEOSUND is keeping 1 square nautical mile area clear for the LUNA. It arrived there around the 10th, and the Resolve seems to have come online as well.

Cheers

marcopolosou

No, I'm not in Ireland. Landed on this board by mistake as was trying to figure out how to get on to RUM (recommended by TipTop on LSE).

Grecco

marcopolosou wrote: »

No, I'm not in Ireland. Landed on this board by mistake .

Lucky for us then.
You`ll find there is far less arguing and squabbling here than there is on ii or lse

marcopolosou

Grecco wrote: »

Lucky for us then.
You`ll find there is far less arguing and squabbling here than there is on ii or lse

Cheers Grecco.

Yes, they do get a bit hectic and out of hand sometimes.

I forgot to mention in my post to Thargor that I am in Sweden.

Three events lead me to believe that the planned Luna drill will take place in December as informed by Noreco and XTR.

1. Noreco is now mentioned alongside Maersk and DONG in the link from offshore.no
2. The behaviour of the vessel Geosund at approx. the spot where LUNA will be drilled.
3. The jack up Maersk Resolve is transmitting its position again.

Cheers

Grecco

Oh sweet
Cheers lad, looks like top-up time again!

marcopolosou

Grecco wrote: »

Oh sweet
Cheers lad, looks like top-up time again!

Perhaps. The market and AIM in particularly is a madhouse at the moment. One cannot count on how it used to be. Do what you feel best in your opinion and after you have checked out for yourself.

We are being screwed well and proper (excuse the French) by the robber barons of the Ratings Agencies and inept political leaders.

GL.

Grecco

For sure there's a lot of manipulating going on, but it does open up buying opportunities every so often so its not all bad.
I was hoping to find a top-up point < 1.6p but that might be stretching it a bit. I don't want to raise my average too much either so I have a feeling that if I don't get a chance this week then the SP will push on again

marcopolosou

Grecco,

Good evening.

What is your gut feeling on Luna?

marcopolosou

Noble Byron Welliver - mobilisation for our drill?

Tugs etc. converge on the Noble Byron Welliver. (First podted by LazL By LazL on iii today) Flag: Gibraltar Ship Type: Other Status: Underway Speed/Course: 0.6 kn / 359˚ Length x Breadth: 73 m X 16 m Draught: 4.6 m Destination: NBW (Noble Byron Welliver) ETA: 2011-11-21 04:00 (UTC) Received (629): 0h 19min ago http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?level0=100#

marcopolosou

Anybody think that there will be an RNS when the rig is mobilised for our Dutch drill?

Grecco

Not sure if they will give an RNS for that, but it looks like the drill bit will be turning by early December. TD should be by mid January. My Gut feeling is that if we hit Oil the SP will treble but its 50/50 at the moment

Thargor

Im hoping for more than treble on a good strike.

marcopolosou

Evening Grecco/all.

I agree with you Grecco, but I suppose that if they hit oil before TD (eg. in the chalk only), then I suppose that Lead A is off the table. Just my supposition. I could be wrong.

Let us hope that the oil is in the Rotliegendes as well as in the chalk.

Exciting and rather surrealistic scenarios.

Good luck to us all.

marcopolosou

RNS

http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201111240700266803S&fe=1

marcopolosou

No news guys so....

A little titbit to entertain.:) If you are not heard, then hire this guy. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-15963842 If you have a cell phone, then read this.:( http://www.infoworld.com/t/cringely/carrier-iq-spying-your-cellphone-180425?page=0,1&source=IFWNLE_nlt_daily_2011-11-30 Enjoy

marcopolosou

Well, so we have the weather Gods against us, but we shall prevail despite the Merkozy/s, the thieving and conniving ratings agencies and a host of inept politicians without the spine to regulate the ratings gang.

The way I see it, is that it is imperative that we get the Luna off to a start asap so that we do not land in a period of SEDA draw downs etc which will impact progress of sp as seen by events at SOU.

Let us hope for a weather window and anticipate at least the Worley Parsons report.

If I recall right, then I seem to remember something about looking at new ventures -- Interim Results -- http://tools.euroland.com/investortools/rnsclient/LoadAnnouncement.aspx?aID=10986408&tidm=XTR&cid=32775&transLang=en&sesLang=&source=rns

"Looking to the future, in addition to identifying additional exploration opportunities, Xtract also has a desire to invest in oil and gas development projects. The objective is to seek assets which because of their size or location are less attractive to larger companies but which, nevertheless, have the potential to generate high returns for our shareholders"

Perhaps they want to emulate SOU. Let us see what turns up.

I am also in SOU, and that has taken a pasting despite a fantastic run of drills and news in the pipeline.

Hope you guys are doing ok.

A little info on Santos.

Seems that Santos are dumping Kyrgyz Republic. See page 25.

http://www.santos.com/library/301111_Asian_Roadshow_Presentation.pdf

All the best Guys.

marcopolosou

Guys, what are your views on the Morocco Shale aspects of XTR?

marcopolosou

In case any of you are in Lochard (LHD)...

http://offshore.no/international/article/Lochard_loses_on_Senergy_case_

marcopolosou

Seasons Greetings and a Happy New Year to all. Let us wish for a better year for 2012.

Thargor

Cheers Marco, same to you, keep the news and analysis coming please.

marcopolosou

The Noble Byron Welliver is in position it seems. It has been moved within the last two days I think. So we can at least anticipate a spud on the Dutch asset soon.

The Resolve seems still seems to be attached to the Valdemar BA platform, but with a bit of luck perhaps it is done with its tasks there in the next few days to coincide with a weather window for the 20 hour tow to Luna.

I wonder when we get the Worley Parsons update.

All the best

PS! If any of you in NEW, then read up about Lion 1 well drilled nearby(Denmark - Jutland) last summer.

Thargor

marcopolosou wrote: »

The Noble Byron Welliver is in position it seems. It has been moved within the last two days I think. So we can at least anticipate a spud on the Dutch asset soon.

The Resolve seems still seems to be attached to the Valdemar BA platform, but with a bit of luck perhaps it is done with its tasks there in the next few days to coincide with a weather window for the 20 hour tow to Luna.

I wonder when we get the Worley Parsons update.

All the best

PS! If any of you in NEW, then read up about Lion 1 well drilled nearby(Denmark - Jutland) last summer.

What do you think the damage will be if we don't strike at these Marco?