RWC Champions?

Gracelessly Tom

So, just over a week to go until the 2011 Rugby World Cup kicks off. New Zealand are red hot favourites at home but Australia seem to be peaking at the right time. Can one of the other nations spring a surprise or is it between these two for the title? Can Ireland do the unthinkable and take home the Webb Ellis trophy?

For me it's hard to look past the Kiwis.

tolosenc

Ireland

Hard to look past the Kiwis? How many times have we said that before? They really should have won most if not all of the previous World Cups. IMO, NZ look like a team with an implosion ready to happen. If the refs ping them as they should, they won't get past the semis.

If you're a betting man, Oz is the way to go. Much better odds and they have as good a chance if not better than NZ of winning.

Ireland will be uncomfortable against US and Russia, get outclassed by Australia, then it's 50:50 to get past Italy. If we do, it's a pummelling at the hands of the Boks.

No way in hell can Ireland win it, even more so given current form and the current coaching staff.

twinytwo

tolosenc wrote: »

Hard to look past the Kiwis? How many times have we said that before? They really should have won most if not all of the previous World Cups. IMO, NZ look like a team with an implosion ready to happen. If the refs ping them as they should, they won't get past the semis.

If you're a betting man, Oz is the way to go. Much better odds and they have as good a chance if not better than NZ of winning.

Ireland will be uncomfortable against US and Russia, get outclassed by Australia, then it's 50:50 to get past Italy. If we do, it's a pummelling at the hands of the Boks.

No way in hell can Ireland win it, even more so given current form and the current coaching staff.

Your having a laugh right?

theboss80

Ireland

For me it comes down to either NZ , Australia or England. I voted for Australia as I've tipped them over a year ago and their recent form has been good including beating NZ. Their confidence must be on a plateau at the moment and what better time. They have the players and management team who can do the business.

I think NZ are gonna crack under the pressure at some stage. Alot of pressure on them at home, they have been the best side in the world for the last 3 years but now with expectations so high and restrictions being put on the players for the duration of the tournament I can't see them finishing the job.

England are in with a fantastic chance I think aswell. They are a team who are always there or thereabouts when there is a trophy on the line. MJ has done very well in building a good squad that can compete. Also I've seen that he has gone old school on the tour leaving players have a pint should they want to aswell as seeing their wives/girlfriends. I think the players will appreciate this and believe in him knowing he has been there,done that and won the trophy.

My money (literally) is on the Wallabies to see it through all the way and would be very very proud if the Irish team made it to the semis.

twinytwo

theboss80 wrote: »

For me it comes down to either NZ , Australia or England. I voted for Australia as I've tipped them over a year ago and their recent form has been good including beating NZ. Their confidence must be on a plateau at the moment and what better time. They have the players and management team who can do the business.

I think NZ are gonna crack under the pressure at some stage. Alot of pressure on them at home, they have been the best side in the world for the last 3 years but now with expectations so high and restrictions being put on the players for the duration of the tournament I can't see them finishing the job.

England are in with a fantastic chance I think aswell. They are a team who are always there or thereabouts when there is a trophy on the line. MJ has done very well in building a good squad that can compete. Also I've seen that he has gone old school on the tour leaving players have a pint should they want to aswell as seeing their wives/girlfriends. I think the players will appreciate this and believe in him knowing he has been there,done that and won the trophy.

My money (literally) is on the Wallabies to see it through all the way and would be very very proud if the Irish team made it to the semis.

Wallabies yes.. england no... they just arnt good. Ya they beat us but there are too many flaws in the team.. if they make it to the semis ill eat my hat.

Hagz

South Africa

twinytwo wrote: »

Wallabies yes.. england no... they just arnt good. Ya they beat us but there are too many flaws in the team.. if they make it to the semis ill eat my hat.

Well, they should top their pool, which would put them against France. I'd say they'll be confident against France, they seem to be France's bogey team.

Digifriendly

France

Australia have the most potent backline without doubt but still a question mark over their front five and if they face inclement conditions as they might well do in 'land of the long white cloud' they could struggle. So I'm taking NZ. France are a dark horse and so unpredictable but they could spring a shock. Next to them England can't be written off either. Outside those 4 I can't see any winner.

gosplan

No one else feel like mentioning SA? Poor as they've been lately, they'd be a horrible team to play in bad conditions.

Fight_Night

France

France should not be written off yet, they have one of the best records in New Zealand and have the potential to beat anyone on their day. Definite dark horses.

Australia and New Zealand are the obvious favourites, South Africa could very well win too but the team isn't what it was in 07 imo.

Unfortunately I don't think we have any chance of winning I don't want to put all the blame on the management because we clearly don't have a 'world cup winning' squad but I think with the players we have we should be aiming for better than just the quarter finals.

England nah I wouldn't give them much of chance in winning. They'll probably go further than us though.

theboss80

Ireland

twinytwo wrote: »

Wallabies yes.. england no... they just arnt good. Ya they beat us but there are too many flaws in the team.. if they make it to the semis ill eat my hat.

Quoted for future reference

desertcircus

France

We always joke about New Zealand choking at the World Cup, but there's a reason they enter every four years as favourites. They'll be shorn of complacency after the Tri-Nations, playing at home, and are simply unbeatable on their day. Every other team facing them is going to have to hope they don't quite click, because NZ at 100% will beat anyone else.

Australia, however, are the team that's actually in form. As said, though, it's hard to know how they'll do if they hit miserable conditions - eighty minutes in driving rain against South Africa, England or indeed Ireland seems tailormade to cause them problems, particularly with a questionable tight five.

South Africa and England go in as the most recent winners and finalists, but they don't seem to have enough this time round to go all the way. France, however, could go far. We've talked about what the warm-up games mean for Ireland, but France demonstrated that they have more or less two complete lineups capable of beating a top-eight team. In a tournament where injuries are guaranteed, their strength in depth could go a long way.

As for the rest: Wales have been handed a brutal group and don't have the momentum or the spark to beat Australia or New Zealand (and whoever wins will have to either beat one of those or be one of those), Ireland will exit at semi-final stage unless Kidney has been keeping phenomenal moves under wraps throughout the warmup games, and Scotland, Italy and the Pacific nations will be targeting a quarter-final place and will be astonished if they get any further.

Gracelessly Tom

France

I think people are reading too much into the last two NZ 3N games. They put a second string team out in South Africa and lost narrowly, only when the weather got bad did it really turn against them. They lost by 5 against Aus in Aus. Showed tremendous fight back ability and hardly choked that game. They destroyed both of these teams in NZ and I think the home advantage is gonna carry them over the line.

I agree the betting value is probably with Aus, maybe France as an outsider. England quite simply don't have the talent to get to the final. Wales beat them and they beat an Irish team that played junior rugby standard and lacked any trace of penetration. Not great form at all.

New Zealand have home advantage, at least a week in between games, the easiest group and if they need to call players up they are an hour or two away not travelling half way round the world. Everything is in their favour, if they don't win it this year they may as well give up on the RWC!!;)

Podge_irl

I would expect NZ to win on home soil. Australia are looking good but I expect the weather this time of year in NZ will play against them more then most teams.

siltirocker

England

That first Irish vote is me. I meant to hit Australia.

Teferi

England

Ah sure **** it, I went with my heart and voted Ireland. My head and money says Australia.

Grimebox

England

Teferi wrote: »

Ah sure **** it, I went with my heart and voted Ireland. My head and money says Australia.

I will be forever and always ignorantly voting Ireland in these polls

Conchir

Ireland

tolosenc wrote: »

Hard to look past the Kiwis? How many times have we said that before? They really should have won most if not all of the previous World Cups. IMO, NZ look like a team with an implosion ready to happen. If the refs ping them as they should, they won't get past the semis.

Chances...

Personally I think Australia will win, they seem to be peaking, as others have said.

England, I think, will do well. They finally seem to have a solid, dependable midfield, and a strong squad on the whole. I don't think they'll go all the way however.

profitius

One of the other 14 nations

I've backed South Africa and I'm sticking with them. I've also put a few quid on France and of course the Paddies.

Australia won the tri nations but SA and NZ were not trying to win it so I wouldn't get too confident of Australia winning. They also have a thin squad and will suffer if they pick up some injuries. I'm also not sure about picking the strongest team for every game. I thought they'd rest some players especially after the long Super rugby season.

France are my wild card. I fully expect NZ to beat them in the group stage but in the knock out rounds anything can happen.

As for the Paddies, who knows. I think they'll rise to the occasion and could have a big win or two.

niceoneted

South Africa

I would love to see NZ lift the cup in their home country - the home of Rugby, but have the feeling they might just fall on the sword again. Oz seem to be in the top form at the moment, but I have been feeling since the warm up games that England might just be the dark horse. I thought they played very well in the aviva last weekend. I just hope the Irish lads can do us proud and not have a 2007 all over again! They and we deserve better.

GerM

England have a fantastic chance relative to where they have been at stages in the past 4 years. MJ has done a good job of prioritising, first and foremost, how hard it is to beat his side. That was the building block of his team and nothing comes easy against them now. Their draw suits them perfectly. They're the top seed and have a couple of solid games in their group to get them up to speed before the knock outs. The likelihood is that they'll meet France in the QF who absolutely sh*t themselves whenever they play England. They could turn up and play superbly or they could be beaten by 20. After that, they have Australia who are the other side that hold no fear at all for England. They've beaten the odds to put them out of a WC in the past and they've beaten them the last two times they've met both in London and Australia. On neutral ground, it's going to be a very tight game and the experience of some key players for England could be vital. It will come down to the day that's in it and if England can keep it tight and spoil Australian possession, they've every chance.

I think England to reach the final could be a decent enough bet. Very hard to see beyond NZ overall though. The Tri-Nations means nothing. They lost it due to putting out a reserve side in South Africa and treating the game as a warm up for the WC. They're the best side in the world and on their own patch they'll be overwhelming favourites.

wixfjord

Ireland

It's actually quite a poor contest this time around imo.
Never as black and and white as it should be, but Aus and NZ look the only two real contenders.
Obviously you’ve England, France and SA, and after that, possibly us, but realistically, the top two have better teams and better coaches.

I’m gonna plump for NZ by virtue of home advantage and the better pack, but would really love to see Aus winning it. Their brand of rugby is lovely to watch.

footie_fanatic

Ireland

Australia to win, Argentina will make a good show

Kev_ps3

France

New Zealand, I think they will win it in style personally.

RonBo88

Australia

France to win.

skregs

South Africa

This whole 'Australia have no tight five' thing is about two years out of date. The only place they look suspect is in the propping department, but I still reckon they'll take NZ in the final

macman2010

South Africa

GerM wrote: »

England have a fantastic chance relative to where they have been at stages in the past 4 years. MJ has done a good job of prioritising, first and foremost, how hard it is to beat his side. That was the building block of his team and nothing comes easy against them now. Their draw suits them perfectly. They're the top seed and have a couple of solid games in their group to get them up to speed before the knock outs. The likelihood is that they'll meet France in the QF who absolutely sh*t themselves whenever they play England. They could turn up and play superbly or they could be beaten by 20. After that, they have Australia who are the other side that hold no fear at all for England. They've beaten the odds to put them out of a WC in the past and they've beaten them the last two times they've met both in London and Australia. On neutral ground, it's going to be a very tight game and the experience of some key players for England could be vital. It will come down to the day that's in it and if England can keep it tight and spoil Australian possession, they've every chance.

I think England to reach the final could be a decent enough bet. Very hard to see beyond NZ overall though. The Tri-Nations means nothing. They lost it due to putting out a reserve side in South Africa and treating the game as a warm up for the WC. They're the best side in the world and on their own patch they'll be overwhelming favourites.

Have to agree here, i still cant believe they made to to the final in 2007.
Will they win it probably not but they are are great each way bet.

France, England, Australia, New Zealand.

Only likely 4 contenders for me.

Considering how England play the most boring structured game known to man, and are beaten by Scotland in terms of creativity from 1-13 I'd really really really hope that it is one of the other 3. Hopefully Australia just for the way they've been playing the game this year. The tempo and willingness to try things is just fantastic to watch.

Auvers

Ireland

niceoneted wrote: »

I would love to see NZ lift the cup in their home country - the home of Rugby

night want to brush up on your auld Rugby history :pac:

I am going for the Aussies stuck 50 quid on them at 6\1 a couple of months ago

Digifriendly

France

skregs wrote: »

This whole 'Australia have no tight five' thing is about two years out of date. The only place they look suspect is in the propping department, but I still reckon they'll take NZ in the final

If Australia hit injuries in front five I think they'll be in trouble. They were well beaten last time in NZ in the Tri nations. If RWC was in Australia I would be tempted to back the Aussies but its NZ for me because of home advantage and more strength in depth.

twinytwo

Id like to see france win.. but we know the way they operate.. spank NZ one week lose to italy the next :pac:

NZ will crack under the pressure... they will end up trying so hard to make sure they win.. it will backfire... that said if they are have a bad semi against say the aussies wait and see every decision will be made to keep them in it.

Again if the aussies stay injury free its hard to see past them at the moment.

If we can make it to a semi though ill be happy.

endabob1

France

Deleted User wrote: »

France, England, Australia, New Zealand.

Only likely 4 contenders for me.

Considering how England play the most boring structured game known to man, and are beaten by Scotland in terms of creativity from 1-13 I'd really really really hope that it is one of the other 3. Hopefully Australia just for the way they've been playing the game this year. The tempo and willingness to try things is just fantastic to watch.

I'd include the Boks they're not as good as they think they are but they have a solid pack of forwards a dependable kicker and a very solid if unexciting centre pairing. They like England have a knack of getting it right when it counts.It's New Zealand's to lose, after them it's anyone form the next 4.
Unfortunately I don't see us getting beyond the last 8, I can't see us beating the Wallabies in the group & I think we have a real battle with Italy, their pack is their strength and with Kaplan's record of blowing Ireland I can see us giving away a lot of penalties and frustration kicking in.
If we do get past Italy it will most likely be the Boks in the quarters, and after what I expect will be a bruising encounter I think it will be a step too far for us. That said their squad is not that deep either and they have a very tough group, 3 proper games with Wales, Fiji & Samoa so they may well be battle weary too....maybe, just maybe....there's that blind optimism kicking in again!

cgpg5

It's got to be New Zealand. They're at home, they are clearly the best team in the world and if they perform to anywhere near their best they will win. Australia's pack is their weakness however with such a devastating backline they have to be seriously considered, they will top their group and beat Wales/Samoa/Fiji with little difficulty meaning that they should at least make the semis. Anything can happen from there. SA, will also top their group and should make the semis however I can't see them coming close to beating NZ. In the Northern Hemisphere England look like the best hope. France are chokers no two ways about it. Team selection could cost them also. I think one previous poster said they would eat their hat if England made semis, well I'd expect them 100% to top their pool against a poor Argentina side and limited Scottish team, and then according to form would play France who England have beaten 4 times in their last 5 meetings so that is truly a nonsensical statement. They would meet Australia then and I'd have to call that as 50/50. Regardless New Zealand to win.

Gracelessly Tom

France

cgpg5 wrote: »

France are chokers no two ways about it.

Eh what?? They've made 2 finals and lost three semi-finals. Never been favourites for a tournament and always do well in the RWC. Chokers is a tag best kept for others.

cgpg5

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Eh what?? They've made 2 finals and lost three semi-finals. Never been favourites for a tournament and always do well in the RWC. Chokers is a tag best kept for others.

Eh cast you're mind back four years maybe? Opening game the whole country watching beaten by Argentina. They then beat New Zealand in quarters expectations are driven sky high, and they then go out and lose to a poor English side. At home. In 1999, have a remarkable win over New Zealand then collapse in next game (the final). In 2003, don't turn up at all in World Cup semi against England when being talked up as potential winners. And it's not only World cups. In fact I can hardly remember the last time in a tournament (including six nations) that they put two good performances together. Whenever they're being talked up or under any pressure they seem to flop. Who you reckon will win it anyway?

sorry just saw your op can't look past New Zealand to be fair

DerTierarzt

England

Ireland will win the World Cup. Believe.

Gracelessly Tom

France

cgpg5 wrote: »

Eh cast you're mind back four years maybe? Opening game the whole country watching beaten by Argentina. They then beat New Zealand in quarters expectations are driven sky high, and they then go out and lose to a poor English side. At home. In 1999, have a remarkable win over New Zealand then collapse in next game (the final). In 2003, don't turn up at all in World Cup semi against England when being talked up as potential winners. And it's not only World cups. In fact I can hardly remember the last time in a tournament (including six nations) that they put two good performances together. Whenever they're being talked up or under any pressure they seem to flop. Who you reckon will win it anyway?

sorry just saw your op can't look past New Zealand to be fair

Fair enough, I'll give you the Argie game in the last world cup. But to choke you need to be massive favourites and fall at a hurdle. They have never been massive favourites for a RWC. Favourites for a match maybe, but never overwhelmingly.

Calling a side who make it to the final poor, is simply incorrect imo. Might play boring and dull but you don't get to a final if you're no use.

As for not putting performances together?? Seriously, do your homework before posting such rubbish. Grand Slam winners in 2002, 2004 and 2010 and 6Ns winners in '02, '04, '06, '07 and '10. Thats only in the last 10 years. Thats 5 of the last 10 six nations titles they've won with 3 Grand slams. Chokers? Not at all.

cgpg5

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

Fair enough, I'll give you the Argie game in the last world cup. But to choke you need to be massive favourites and fall at a hurdle. They have never been massive favourites for a RWC. Favourites for a match maybe, but never overwhelmingly.

Calling a side who make it to the final poor, is simply incorrect imo. Might play boring and dull but you don't get to a final if you're no use.

As for not putting performances together?? Seriously, do your homework before posting such rubbish. Grand Slam winners in 2002, 2004 and 2010 and 6Ns winners in '02, '04, '06, '07 and '10. Thats only in the last 10 years. Thats 5 of the last 10 six nations titles they've won with 3 Grand slams. Chokers? Not at all.

Maybe I'm wrong but were they not seen as incredibly fortunate to win the grand slam in 2010. Beating Italy and Scotland should be a given for France even their third team (I understand they lost to Italy this year- that was a freak result) and Wales were awful in 2010. In fact they gave one good performance I remember and that was against us. That's what France do, they always have one massive performance. They were awful against England it was laughable the chances England missed. They may have won Grand Slams in 2004 and 2002 but that was over 7 and 9 years ago respectively. France are a great side there's no denying it and are capable of beating anyone on their day. However they are also capable of playing terrible, more so when their seems to be pressure on. I understand your point they are still winning six nations and Grand slams and they are doing that by playing poorly as well as good. That is a sign of a good team I'll give you that. If they can win the world cup this year it won't matter how well or not they play. Posting rubbish is a bit harsh we all have our opinions

Gracelessly Tom

France

cgpg5 wrote: »

Maybe I'm wrong but were they not seen as incredibly fortunate to win the grand slam in 2010. Beating Italy and Scotland should be a given for France even their third team (I understand they lost to Italy this year- that was a freak result) and Wales were awful in 2010. In fact they gave one good performance I remember and that was against us. That's what France do, they always have one massive performance. They were awful against England it was laughable the chances England missed. They may have won Grand Slams in 2004 and 2002 but that was over 7 and 9 years ago respectively. France are a great side there's no denying it and are capable of beating anyone on their day. However they are also capable of playing terrible, more so when their seems to be pressure on. I understand your point they are still winning six nations and Grand slams and they are doing that by playing poorly as well as good. That is a sign of a good team I'll give you that. If they can win the world cup this year it won't matter how well or not they play. Posting rubbish is a bit harsh we all have our opinions

To win tournaments you need a bit of luck. I know the slams in '02 and '04 were 7 and 9 years ago but you have previously quoted RWC performances by them from years ago as well so you can't have it both ways!;)

Personally, I don't think they are chokers. New Zealand wear that tag as far as I'm concerned. God help them if they don't win it this year!:)

Apologies if the rubbish comment offended you. With their recent successes in the 6Ns it isn't accurate to say they choke and don't string performances together, imho.

sock puppet

France

Digifriendly wrote: »

If Australia hit injuries in front five I think they'll be in trouble.

Front row more so. Their backup locks are pretty good. If Polata-Nau stays fit he'll be a fantastic reserve hooker too.

Noffles

cgpg5 wrote: »

It's got to be New Zealand. They're at home, they are clearly the best team in the world and if they perform to anywhere near their best they will win. Australia's pack is their weakness however with such a devastating backline they have to be seriously considered, they will top their group and beat Wales/Samoa/Fiji with little difficulty meaning that they should at least make the semis. Anything can happen from there. SA, will also top their group and should make the semis however I can't see them coming close to beating NZ. In the Northern Hemisphere England look like the best hope. France are chokers no two ways about it. Team selection could cost them also. I think one previous poster said they would eat their hat if England made semis, well I'd expect them 100% to top their pool against a poor Argentina side and limited Scottish team, and then according to form would play France who England have beaten 4 times in their last 5 meetings so that is truly a nonsensical statement. They would meet Australia then and I'd have to call that as 50/50. Regardless New Zealand to win.

You have the groups slightly mixed there, SA are in with Wales/Samoa and Fiji not Oz..

Gracelessly Tom

France

Noffles wrote: »

You have the groups slightly mixed there, SA are in with Wales/Samoa and Fiji not Oz..

I think he meant beat Wales/Samoa/Fiji in the quarters thus getting into the semi's easily enough.

Noffles

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

I think he meant beat Wales/Samoa/Fiji in the quarters thus getting into the semi's easily enough.

Ah, maybe so... Wales are going to win the whole thing anyway...

cgpg5

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

I think he meant beat Wales/Samoa/Fiji in the quarters thus getting into the semi's easily enough.

Aye that's what I meant sorry I'd say Aus will beat Wales in quarters

petebricquette

Ireland

cgpg5 wrote: »

Aye that's what I meant sorry I'd say Aus will beat Wales in quarters

I'm half thinking of putting a few quid on Wales to not get out of their group. They've a horrible match schedule and I think they'll struggle against the overall physicality they'll be facing.

Typh

France

As much as I loathe saying it, whenever I heard Ireland labeled as the dark horses, I couldn't help thinking it was unadulterated media hype/ a very romanticised affiliation the Irish have with being the underdogs.
Having said that, I genuinely can't see this team of talented individual players playing worse than they have, and am therefore optimistic that something will come from the ashes of the last few games.

I also think that the WC is New Zealand's to lose, and that only some freak error count or their game not clicking would see it otherwise.

I'll still be wearing green and fueling an ugly stereotype about Ireland and alcoholism, irrespective of what happens. I'd be ecstatic to see them playing even close to their optimum.

cgpg5

petebricquette wrote: »

I'm half thinking of putting a few quid on Wales to not get out of their group. They've a horrible match schedule and I think they'll struggle against the overall physicality they'll be facing.

Could be worth a bet however I think they'll have learned from their mistakes of 4 years ago and I don't think Samoa are as good as some people say, think Wales will be better than people think.

Gracelessly Tom

France

cgpg5 wrote: »

Could be worth a bet however I think they'll have learned from their mistakes of 4 years ago and I don't think Samoa are as good as some people say, think Wales will be better than people think.

They better bleedin' not be!! I've money on Samoa to get to the 1/4's!!

cgpg5

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

To win tournaments you need a bit of luck. I know the slams in '02 and '04 were 7 and 9 years ago but you have previously quoted RWC performances by them from years ago as well so you can't have it both ways!;)

Personally, I don't think they are chokers. New Zealand wear that tag as far as I'm concerned. God help them if they don't win it this year!:)

Apologies if the rubbish comment offended you. With their recent successes in the 6Ns it isn't accurate to say they choke and don't string performances together, imho.

Chokers is probably the wrong word alright. I'm trying to say that they underperform when the pressure is on. Chokers would be more suitable for NZ in fairness who are generally overwhelming favourites but collapse.

cgpg5

Gracelessly Tom wrote: »

They better bleedin' not be!! I've money on Samoa to get to the 1/4's!!

Yeah I hope they do. There won't be much between them though I'll tell you that. On another note is there a reason why Henry Tuilagi isn't in their squad? As a London Irish follower, I've got to say Tagicakibau and Mapusua are top quality backs.

LightningBolt

Em I seem to have voted for any of the other 14...

Personally think it will be either New Zealand or France to win. Going to say the French on the assumption that New Zealand choke.

handsomecake

France

desertcircus wrote: »

We always joke about New Zealand choking at the World Cup, but there's a reason they enter every four years as favourites. They'll be shorn of complacency after the Tri-Nations, playing at home, and are simply unbeatable on their day. Every other team facing them is going to have to hope they don't quite click, because NZ at 100% will beat anyone else.

Australia, however, are the team that's actually in form. As said, though, it's hard to know how they'll do if they hit miserable conditions - eighty minutes in driving rain against South Africa, England or indeed Ireland seems tailormade to cause them problems, particularly with a questionable tight five.

South Africa and England go in as the most recent winners and finalists, but they don't seem to have enough this time round to go all the way. France, however, could go far. We've talked about what the warm-up games mean for Ireland, but France demonstrated that they have more or less two complete lineups capable of beating a top-eight team. In a tournament where injuries are guaranteed, their strength in depth could go a long way.

As for the rest: Wales have been handed a brutal group and don't have the momentum or the spark to beat Australia or New Zealand (and whoever wins will have to either beat one of those or be one of those), Ireland will exit at semi-final stage unless Kidney has been keeping phenomenal moves under wraps throughout the warmup games, and Scotland, Italy and the Pacific nations will be targeting a quarter-final place and will be astonished if they get any further.

if the weather is as bad as is being mooted then i cant have aus. for nonu's try the other day nz went through 27 phases up the middle. nz can do up the jumper rugby ( as much as i despise it) australia cant.

if its lashing out of the heavens ireland could easily beat aus. on a dry track different story