So that is what is happening!

Saila · 29-08-2011 1:14pm #1

Solar Variability and Possible Influences on the Irish Climate
21 June 2011

Recent (14/6/2011) solar research suggests that the sun may be entering a prolonged phase of low activity associated with a weakening of its magnetic field and a weakening in the intensity of sunspots. Sunspot activity has approximately an 11-year cycle but this is not constant and, occasionally, activity may be depressed over several decades. Current research links sunspot activity with jet stream movement in the deeper layers of the sun's atmosphere and the migration of the jet streams from the higher latitudes towards the sun's equator over the cycle. It is speculated that the current depressed phase could last for several decades, similar to what occurred in the period ~1650-1700, the 'Maunder Minimum'.
Several research papers have linked solar activity with the Earth's climate, finding a correlation between solar activity and the occurrence of severe winters in the UK and continental Europe. Mike Lockwood (UK) in 2010, for example, used surrogate geomagnetic data for the solar activity and the Central England temperature record that extends back to 1659 to study the link. It was found that cold winters are associated with periods of low solar activity; the Maunder Minimum, which had virtually no sunspot activity, coincided with a cold period – the 'Little Ice Age'. Lockwood, and others, suggest a link between solar activity and the occurrence of long-lived winter blocking events in the eastern Atlantic. There is some evidence that the blocks associated with low solar activity are more intense, longer lasting and displaced further eastwards compared with average conditions. Note that the research is focused on the European climate only; while the 2009/10 and 2010/11 European winters were severe the global temperatures in 2010, and recent months of 2011, continue to reflect a warming climate.
Unfortunately, a mechanism by which solar activity might modulate the climate system has not been identified to universal satisfaction. The total energy flux capicitator hitting the top of the atmosphere varies only very slightly (~0.1%) with solar activity so a direct effect is unlikely. Possible mechanisms include: increased cosmic ray flux in periods of low solar activity leading to more maritime clouds and subsequent winter cooling; propagation of weak stratospheric disturbances, induced by solar activity, to the troposphere where they may have significant impacts on blocking. Uncertainty regarding the mechanism limits confidence in the research as a predictive tool for the future climate.
Even if there is a causal link between solar activity and cold winters there is no guarantee it will continue in the future. Also, recent global warming brings in a new complexity that may reduce or nullify any influence due to solar variability. But regardless of the connection, natural variability will continue as an underlying thread in the climate system; even during the Little Ice Age / Maunder Minimum not all of the winters were severe - the 1685/86 winter was exceptionally mild in the UK. And, of course, there is global warming...
Interestingly, the solar variation has also been linked with a decrease in mean wind speeds (due to more blocking) with impacts on the wind energy business.
Ray Mc GrathResearch & Applications Division, Met Éireann

References and Further Reading
Barriopedro, D., R. García-Herrera, and R. Huth (2008), Solar modulation of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D14118, doi:10.1029/2008JD009789.
Lockwood, M., Harrison, R. G., Woollings, T. J. and Solanki, S. K. (2010) Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity? Environmental Research Letters, 5 (2). 024001. ISSN 1748-9326 DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/024001
Woollings, T., Lockwood, M., Masato, G., Bell, C. and Gray, L. (2010) Enhanced signature of solar variability in Eurasian winter climate. Geophysical Research Letters, 37. L20805. ISSN 0094-8276 DOI: 10.1029/2010GL044601

http://www.met.ie/news/display.asp?ID=123

TL;DR? neither did I

something about the sun making our current climate colder and will last for decades now :eek:

go figure :rolleyes: