York Festival Longshots

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York Festival Longshots

Going to keep a seperate Festival Tread

Bet 1

3:05 Wednesday

Regent Street. Im astonished at his price here, as far as i can see he could and should be the second best horse in this race with his form in the book so far. His last run he clearly didnt stay the 2 miles at Ascot and that looks the main reason for the huge price. Even if he is used as a pacemaker which i doubt his chance of placing here looks to be huge, considering his proximity to other AOB horses in the Derrinstown Derby Trial, and his previous Seasonal Re-Appearance as well. 33/1 is Huge.. 8 runners makes a massive differance to this value tough and hopefully none will drop out before tomorrow. The fact that a horse like Sea Moon ( who in fairness could be an improver) is priced at 7/2 i cant fathom at all as he would need to improve a lot to take a hand in this. All i can say is Get On at that price

2 Points EW 33/1 VC & PPower.

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Bet 2

3:40 Wednesday

Roderick O'Conner. Going for AOB second string here again, but this race is tougher to place in as Midday is very consistant. He was probably asked to do too much when he ran in the French Derby after running in both 2000's. I did like to look of his run in the Irish Derby all the same, where he was ridden out the back, but to me it looked more of a Training Spin than anything, and the step back to 10furlongs will definatly help. He has also had a decent break. I would think that there is not much between him and Twice Over on this seasons form and should one of the Big 2 not Perform hell have every chance getting weight from the rest. 25/1 looks decent value

1 Point EW 25/1 Various

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Bet 3

4:50 Wed.

Naqshabban: A total pig of a horse obviously, but if he doesnt start money back anyway. I dont think there is any chance at all that he will go of longer than his current price on betfair of 14.5. He has all the advantages here of the 3yo weight allowence and possibly being underestimated by the handicapper. He has had a break and hopefully they have sorted him out. He could easily go off Fav here. Ill have 1 point win at the moment and will add on later if a decent price becomes available with bookies.


1 Point Win Betfair 14.5

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Bet 4

2:00 Wed

Johannes: has been running well enough this year, and has treatened on a few occasions the he might click soon. He hasnt had the best of luck with the draw lately, but tomorrow most of the fancied horses are drawn high and so is he. Hopefully he is on the right side. He has won over c&d with a few pounds higher and has a good run lately on similiar Good-Soft ground at Newcastle. This race doesnt look as hot as some of the races he has ran in this year and im surprised he's one of the outsiders of the field at 33/1. A negative is that he only ran at the weekend when drawn on the wrong side at Ripon.

1 Point EW 33/1 Various.

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Shocking yesterday..

3:05

Prime Exibit: altough he looks to have a poor draw, he does have a decent drop in weights and softer ground in his favour and he has a decent enought record fresh. He looks to have a decent chance of placing here. He's 36 win and 7 place on betfair and that looks a bit of value.

1 Point win 1 Point Place Betfair

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3:40

Laughing Lashes: having selected her for the oaks, she ran well and was beginning to respond to the whip when it was lost 1f out, i think she may have been much closer, and 12.5 on betfair looks value considering there is nothing between any of these 3yo fillies.

2 Points win Betfair 12.6

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4:40

Magicalmysterytour:Looks to be down to a mark he may be able to get involved off. He ran on well enough last time out without ever looking like treatening the places but a bit of improvement here could see him running on into a place. his run at windsor 2 runs ago of a higher mark albeit a shorter trip was decent and he will like to good-soft ground and just looks too big on betfair at 46 win 7.8 place.

1 Point Win 1 Point Place.

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2:00

Worthington: Altough she is the second string of R Fahys, she had a decent run at Ascot and 2 very decent run in listed races since. She does look that 6furlungs might be too short for her in time, but may stay on for a place here at a huge price on favourable weight terrms. The Fav does look well clear of the rest. betfair price of 120 win and 15.5 place looks worth a small bet.

1 Point win 1 Point Place betfair

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2:00

Mirrored: She has looked to me like a step up in trip will be no harm. She has run well last twice when finishing fast both times over shorter trips. She is down to her last winning mark, which is still far below her peak. I had kind of hoped shed be a bigger price but she still looks value in this open race. Betfair 22 win 4.8 place

2 Point win 2 Points Place Betfair

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3:05

Anmar: This one was beaten last time out by the fav here Dux Scholar over a longer trip and by only a couple of lengths, when the fav got first run. To me it looked like a step back in trip would suit. Even tough he is a 5yo he is lightly raced and could still have some improvement, he looks well overpriced here to place especially currently 46 win 8.2 place.

1 Point win 2 Points Place

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3:40

Piccadilly Filly: She was 3rd in this last year, had a good run in the Abbey after on softer ground, and could be getting back to form in time for this. Its a bit of a poor G1 really with Hoof It seemingly miles clear without any of the real top class contenders. 18.0 to place just looks a bit big considering her run last year and really anything can happen in a race like this for the places. Ill have to have a min bet on the win just in case however unlikely it seems.

.5 point win 120 1.5 points Place 18.0 Betfair

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4:50

Sioux Rising: No harm the drop in class after running a decent race in a listed contest lately, if the 7lbs calimer can get a run out of her she's a big price to place as she's been very consistant in general, and the claim gives her a decent enough racing weight. she looks overpriced at 33/1

1 Point EW 33/1 Stan James

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4:15

Crusade: there are 2 AOB runners in this race and as they are both first time out they should be opposable normally. but at the moment it is very difficult to pick out which is the stable choice and 40/1 about one getting sent over at all for this type of race is just too big to ignore.

1 Point EW 40/1 Stan James

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Quick few this mornign as i have to go to work .

Yesterday Sioux Rising, was second to keep from a total blank.


3:40

Lost in the Moment: Not like to go for the FAV but i have him more a 5/1 shot. Confidence is more based on a handicap run over a shorter than ideal 10f here behind Green Destiny of 104 only 1 pound less than today: in this race he got no run and he just sauntered up to 3rd as an aftertought, the winner has won this week and that looks exceptional form. He then was incredably unlucky next time out when getting stopped in his run a few times in the Goodwood cup over 2miles (so staying is assured). He has a very fast finishing kick for a stayer and in that kind of form really should win this.

3 Points EW 8/1 Various


3:05

Dandino: This is a very tight race with nothing at all between the first 5-6 in the betting. I would think one of the improvers might just take this and Dandino is much the better Value . He looked to be staying on in the Cornation at Epson, and 11/1 look a bit of value. the ground could be a worry but he worth a shot at that price.

2 Points Win 11/1 Ladbrokes

2:00

Doncaster Rover: Very good run in a hot G2 last week, and this is considerably weaker. The ground will only help and i have him as Favourite here on his run behind Genki on softer ground earlier this year 8/1 with Paddy Power looks a great Price.

3 Points EW 8/1 Paddy Power

2:30

Apache: Very poor at Ascot, but really looks like a stayer and if hes to go to the Ledger hell have to win this of 98. He is drawn well on the inside and should be able to get cover and race much better than he did at Ascot. 12/1 looks great value

2 Points Win 12/1 Will Hill/ Coral

Admiral of The Red: does have a lot of weight to carry, but if he can find a bit of improvement from his last run it will be hard to keep him out of the places in this race. He has cheekpieces on this time and looks overpriced on betfair 38 win 6.4 place.

1 Point win 2 Points Place

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aidankkk wrote: »

2:00

Doncaster Rover: Very good run in a hot G2 last week, and this is considerably weaker. The ground will only help and i have him as Favourite here on his run behind Genki on softer ground earlier this year 8/1 with Paddy Power looks a great Price.

3 Points EW 8/1 Paddy Power

:D 6 point BET

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This Tread ended up 5.25 points in profit, which isnt too bad (thanks god for Doncaster Rover). I need to reduce the amount of selections tough, there should be 5-6 less selections here..