Thats Gas. And Oil

D1stant

Fintan O Toole today:

'The State is about to sign away almost all our resources on terms by far the worst in the developed world
SOMETIMES, YOU have to consider extraordinary things. I want to suggest two of them at one go. The first is that the State is simply incapable of dealing with one of the key challenges and opportunities facing Irish people: getting the best for the Irish people from the potentially huge resources of oil and gas off our shores. The second is that we should therefore split those resources with a state that has proven its ability to manage this challenge for the maximum public benefit. That state is Norway. I am suggesting, in all seriousness, that we should give joint ownership of our oil and gas to the Norwegian state.'

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2011/0816/1224302525090.html


Is there any data on how much extraction would cost in Ireland. In Norway I believe its something like $14. In Saudi $2. (from memory so please no stat(oil)zealots) So Norway completes best when the price is high... as its going to be.

What the **** is Rabbite up to?

mackg

If we do extract the oil will we be buying a premiership club? if so who?

Frank Black

Fintan O Toole is a nut-job.

Can't believe that anyone takes any of his ramblings seriously - the 'potentially huge resources of oil and gas off our shores' is a fantasy.

born2bwild

Well, this has been on the agenda of the left for some time: estimates of the value of the oil and gas range from 300 to 600 BILLION euros.
This matter should be and should have been at the top of the political agenda for a long time - why is the government signing this away to petroleum industry?

policarp

And we'll have a great fracking time. . .

born2bwild

black francis wrote: »

Fintan O Toole is a nut-job.

Can't believe that anyone takes any of his ramblings seriously - the 'potentially huge resources of oil and gas off our shores' is a fantasy.

Sorry, but you have no evidence for your first claim and you're ignoring the facts in order to make your second.

In other words, O'Toole is not insane and the presence of oil and gas is not a fantasy: "The official estimate of the Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources is that there are reserves of 6.5 billion barrels of oil and 20 trillion cubic feet of gas off the western seaboard – enough to meet our energy needs for a century."

born2bwild

mackg wrote: »

If we do extract the oil will we be buying a premiership club? if so who?

I'd spend the money on sport in this country tbh.

Chuck Stone

born2bwild wrote: »

there are reserves of 6.5 billion barrels of oil and 20 trillion cubic feet of gas off the western seaboard – enough to sell to the Chinese over the space of 10 years and re-inlfate the property market and grow the public sector untill it all comes crashing down again

FYP.

born2bwild

Not in a command economy.

Crazy Horse 6

We have the most corrupt leadership in western Europe and have had for almost 35 years now. The simple fact is they don't care about the average PAYE slave in this country. This is just another in a long line of screw up's from the government.

Zebra3

We take on debts belonging to private institutions and we give away oil and gas for next to nothing.

:rolleyes:

Frank Black

born2bwild wrote: »

Sorry, but you have no evidence for your first claim and you're ignoring the facts in order to make your second.

In other words, O'Toole is not insane and the presence of oil and gas is not a fantasy: "The official estimate of the Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources is that there are reserves of 6.5 billion barrels of oil and 20 trillion cubic feet of gas off the western seaboard – enough to meet our energy needs for a century."

First point was a subjective opinion and doesn't require 'proof'.

Second point - Amount is totally irrelevant - it's the cost of extracting it that's the key.

Tabnabs

A very enlightening edition of Prime Time with Pat Rabbitte giving some statistics to show exactly why Ireland has stayed out of offshore exploration and why Norway is not a valid template to use

http://www.rte.ie/news/av/2011/0728/primetime.html#

From about 12 minutes in.

BTW, the cost to drill a well to establish if it has oil/gas would cost USD$100 million plus. Put that figure into the Irish strike rate and do the maths. Makes the Anglo bill look like a happy club meal deal.

Irish Slaves for Europe

Tabnabs wrote: »

A very enlightening edition of Prime Time with Pat Rabbitte giving some statistics to show exactly why Ireland has stayed out of offshore exploration and why Norway is not a valid template to use

http://www.rte.ie/news/av/2011/0728/primetime.html#

From about 12 minutes in.

jesus that is scary, rabitte is going to give our resources away for practically nothing! Even if a massive oil well is found any return to the state will be miniscule. Something needs to be done to stop him going ahead with these woeful terms for Ireland.

D1stant

Tabnabs wrote: »

BTW, the cost to drill a well to establish if it has oil/gas would cost USD$100 million plus. Put that figure into the Irish strike rate and do the maths. Makes the Anglo bill look like a happy club meal deal.

The strike rate quoted was 4/150 but thats in the last 40 years or so. Presuming that the exploration is much more accurate now, isnt that an unfair ratio?

mackg

born2bwild wrote: »

I'd spend the money on sport in this country tbh.

does that mean that this is the turning point where Irish soccer overtakes the English game and that the Mcdonalds ad was actually an eerily accurate prediction of the future?

ArmaniJeanss

D1stant wrote: »

The strike rate quoted was 4/150 but thats in the last 40 years or so. Presuming that the exploration is much more accurate now, isnt that an unfair ratio?

Its not some sort of theoretical ratio, 4/150 is the actual fact of what have been successful explorations.
The oil companies do their deals on the actual facts, not theoretical 'we think there might be 17 Squillion worth down there' guesses.

If the ratio suddently does improve to 9/170 and then 11/220 or whatever then its a different ball game.

I've said it before, but if a) it really is common knowledge that there is so much oil/gas there and b) the Irish government is giving ridiculously good terms then ipso facto the oil companies should be queueing round the block for the licenses. The coast from Donegal to Cork should look like Kuwait. They should be dismantling some of their NorthSea & Norwegian rigs and setting them up off Dingle.

Or maybe the truth is that the oil companies, with 100 years of experience of finding oil and making money, believe that there's only chump change to be made off the coast of Ireland.

Irish Slaves for Europe

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Its not some sort of theoretical ratio, 4/150 is the actual fact of what have been successful explorations.
The oil companies do their deals on the actual facts, not theoretical 'we think there might be 17 Squillion worth down there' guesses.

yes but what D1stant is saying is that exploration methods are a lot more advanced today than the methods used 30 or 40 years ago, so oil companies have a much better idea nowadays if it is worth drilling a well in the first place, therefore the strike rate nowadays can not be compared to the average strike rate over the last 40 years. Now obviously the oil companies will push the past average as somehow being relevant today as much as possible to get the best deal they can get.

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

I've said it before, but if a) it really is common knowledge that there is so much oil/gas there and b) the Irish government is giving ridiculously good terms then ipso facto the oil companies should be queueing round the block for the licenses.

Well thats exactly what is happening at the moment in the current licensing round. If you view that primetime report the demand for exploration licenses off the coast of Ireland has gone through the roof, and Rabitte is on the verge of giving almost all of our remaining territory away (a quarter of a million square kilometres).

Thats why the public needs to act NOW to stop this before it is too late.

CucaFace

Well in the future we could always do a Chavez (President of Venezula) and say hey we've changed our minds, that oil is ours again.

Thanks for the help finding it though.

ArmaniJeanss

Irish Slaves for Europe wrote: »

Well thats exactly what is happening at the moment in the current licensing round. If you view that primetime report the demand for exploration licenses off the coast of Ireland has gone through the roof, and Rabitte is on the verge of giving almost all of our remaining territory away (a quarter of a million square kilometres).

What does 'through the roof' actually mean?
Yes, we have theoretically put 1/4M SqKm up - but this amounts to 996 seperate fields for which a seperate license is needed for each.

Now as a comparison in the last round of licenses (2009) we put 300 fields up for license, on terms which were worse for the oil companies, and there were only 2 applications. TWO. So is 'through the roof' 5 applications or 10, or 30*? Bloody fantastic if so - let them explore, let them find, let them produce, let them bring it onshore with minimal interference, let them profit. And in 2015 when we still have 966 fields left to license we can do so on better terms.

The key thing is always that until such time as the successful exploitable finds are made we cannot dictate the terms. Once that happens then we can go all Norway on the profits.

* If it turns out that all 996 fields have been licensed in this round, or even up to say 20% of them, then I'll hold my hands up and say Rabbitte was wrong.

Absurdum

trillions Joe!!! an der givin it away for nuttin!!!!

Irish Slaves for Europe

Absurdum wrote: »

trillions Joe!!! an der givin it away for nuttin!!!!

well the total value would be about a trillion according to the current estimate and oil prices:

10 billion barrels x $100 per barrel = 1 trillion

Now obviously the benefit to the state will be a small fraction of that, or at least it should be a small fraction of that, but under the current terms we would get virtually nothing

Irish Slaves for Europe

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

* If it turns out that all 996 fields have been licensed in this round, or even up to say 20% of them, then I'll hold my hands up and say Rabbitte was wrong.

Fintan O'Toole is reporting that the whole lot is included in the current licensing round

Yahew

Irish Slaves for Europe wrote: »

jesus that is scary, rabitte is going to give our resources away for practically nothing! Even if a massive oil well is found any return to the state will be miniscule. Something needs to be done to stop him going ahead with these woeful terms for Ireland.

the explanation of just why Ireland does not really have much in the way of economically revcoverable reservers is just a bit over your head? He is right. You are wrong. If you want to get the oil yourself, go get it. Otherwise we need people who can do it. They are going to strike out more than hit paydirt, at a cost of €100M, that is if they are even allowed to get going with the protesters. Add that up, and the rewards are slim.

ArmaniJeanss

Irish Slaves for Europe wrote: »

Fintan O'Toole is reporting that the whole lot is included in the current licensing round

He's being very deceitful/disengenuous. All 996 fields are available, this is true, but from what I can find on the Internet its expected that only around 15 or 20 licenses will actually be applied for/given out.

smokedeels

mackg wrote: »

does that mean that this is the turning point where Irish soccer overtakes the English game and that the Mcdonalds ad was actually an eerily accurate prediction of the future?

That advert was way off.

4 Boobs = hot

4 Eyes = not

Dear McDonald’s marketing department,

Get your sci-fi-babe eye to boob ratios correct please.

Thank you

pragmatic1

This really fcuks me off.

TheZohanS

In a few years time you'll see the politicians/civil servants that were responsible for brokering the deals sitting on the board of these oil companies. Exact same thing happened after the deal was done with the IMF.

marco_polo

Here is an piece from the same paper that contains some factual facts on the matter. Quoted a few interesting bits.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/weekend/2011/0319/1224292581861.html

Some interesting bits

Providence Resources is Ireland’s largest indigenous exploration and production company. Its chief executive, Tony O’Reilly jnr, was in the US this week for Ireland Day at the New York Stock Exchange. He says many in the audience were dumbfounded that Ireland had such potential in traditional hydrocarbons. On the other hand, he admits that in 30 years exploring off the coast of Ireland “we haven’t made a penny out of it as a company”.
.........

The previous minister for energy Eamon Ryan upped the State’s take from 25 per cent to 40 per cent for the most profitable fields. By contrast Norway has a tax take of 78 per cent of profits, but it has proven reserves. O’Reilly says Norway was able to set up a state oil company, Statoil, and a sovereign wealth fund only after it had found substantial reserves of oil and gas. “They got that after private companies went and invested and had success. Over years the tax revenue came in and allowed them to underpin their sovereign wealth fund.”

....

Irish licensing terms are “absolutely fair” and competitive, according to Pat Shannon, professor of geology at UCD. “If they were overgenerous we would have every big company in the world in here. The fact that we don’t have companies queuing up means that they don’t see Ireland as a giveaway. To me that is the bottom line.”

......

I Heart Internet

I heard there is land all over the country that can be used to grow quite valuable crops - wheat, barley, spuds, or raise animals for meat. Likewise there are fish all around our coast worth hundreds of millions of euro! I can't understand why the Irish Government just allows these private individuals and companies to use the land and catch all these fish!! It's crazy. Ireland Inc gets no share of the catch/crop - just a few euro in tax!

Why doesn't the Government buy tractors, milking parlours, trawlers, etc and start reaping the rewards for us???

It must be easy....we just relocate a few nurses, gardai and a few civil servants to manage them all and heh-presto.

Panty_thief

In any case, if we suddenly did inherit trillions the brits would probably just find an excuse.

her majesty took a dump off the side of a boat in those waters ergo we own the atlantic.

TheZohanS

Irish licensing terms are “absolutely fair” and competitive, according to Pat Shannon, professor of geology at UCD. “If they were overgenerous we would have every big company in the world in here. The fact that we don’t have companies queuing up means that they don’t see Ireland as a giveaway. To me that is the bottom line.”

Ah shure the professor is right, it's not like the oil companies have ever formed a cartel or have ever been involved in price fixing.

Padraig Mor

TheZohan wrote: »

Ah shure the professor is right, it's not like the oil companies have ever formed a cartel or have ever been involved in price fixing.

Yeah.......they formed a cartel NOT to grab all the "loads" of "free" Irish gas and oil. :rolleyes:

TheZohanS

Padraig Mor wrote: »

Yeah.......they formed a cartel NOT to grab all the "loads" of "free" Irish gas and oil. :rolleyes:

Great post, it's nice to see you did a lot of research on this and argued your point well.

You can keep this little fella too ":rolleyes:" make sure you feed him and give him lots of hugs (he looks a little bit retarded).

marco_polo

TheZohan wrote: »

Ah shure the professor is right, it's not like the oil companies have ever formed a cartel or have ever been involved in price fixing.

Its really no skin of my nose if you value Fintan O'Tooles opnions on Irish oil exploration more highly than that a professor of Geology.

Confirmation bias much?

TheZohanS

marco_polo wrote: »

Its really no skin of my nose if you value Fintan O'Tooles opnion on Irish oil exlporation more highly than that a professor of Geology. Confirmation bias much?

Not really, I'd say the truth is somewhere in the middle. The question is can we really trust our government to get the best deal in this situation? I personally can not.

I Heart Internet

TheZohan wrote: »

Padraig Mor wrote: »

Yeah.......they formed a cartel NOT to grab all the "loads" of "free" Irish gas and oil. :rolleyes:

Great post, it's nice to see you did a lot of research on this and argued your point well.

You can keep this little fella too ":rolleyes:" make sure you feed him and give him lots of hugs (he looks a little bit retarded).

I thought he cut to the chase and identified the problem quite well. Far better than some vague accusation of price fixing and cartels.

The problem to date is that we've had too few companies, too little gas and zero oil. The problem is clearly NOT that companies are filling their pockets with money at our expense.

TheZohanS

I Heart Internet wrote: »

I thought he cut to the chase and identified the problem quite well. Far better than some vague accusation of price fixing and cartels.

The problem to date is that we've had too few companies, too little gas and zero oil. The problem is clearly NOT that companies are filling their pockets with money at our expense.

So you trust the government to negotiate a good deal on this? Seriously?

marco_polo

The 2011 round appears to have finished months ago anyway so I am not sure what Fintan is talking about, there were 15 applications. A little better than the two of 2009.

http://www.dcenr.gov.ie/Press+Releases/Atlantic+Licensing+Round+closes.htm

These rounds happen few years anyway so if explorations success ratios improve we would be in a position to change to more favourable terms.

I Heart Internet

TheZohan wrote: »

I Heart Internet wrote: »

I thought he cut to the chase and identified the problem quite well. Far better than some vague accusation of price fixing and cartels.

The problem to date is that we've had too few companies, too little gas and zero oil. The problem is clearly NOT that companies are filling their pockets with money at our expense.

So you trust the government to negotiate a good deal on this? Seriously?

I would hope that, having found a fiscal regime that seems to have ignited some interest in Ireland's offshore, the present government would now leave well enough alone, companies search for and find some oil and gas, develop it, create jobs and hand Ireland a cheque for 25-40% of the profits.

I would not like to see any Government derail any of this activity by tinkering with licensing regime until it's been proven that Ireland has some real, attractive fields other than the 3 or 4 gas fields so far.

I say "I hope" because, no, I don't trust the government to leave well alone. At the first hint of real oil or more gas I think they'll eventually cave into those calling for a "renegotiation", other players will pack their bags and leave and Ireland's offshore will stagnate for another 30 years.

Eric Cartman

Its obvious we dont have that much oil and gas , america hasnt called enda a terrorist and tried to invade.

flas

i can just picture it now, in 15 years time all the people on here complaining about how our countries resources have been sold from under our feet and that the majority of people were idiots for not realising it at the time, i sincerly hope thats not the case, but its kind of ominous that that is going to be our luck, we have a track record of having bad luck and being sold out, why are people thinking this is going to be any different!

Zebra3

TheZohan wrote: »

Ah shure the professor is right, it's not like the oil companies have ever formed a cartel or have ever been involved in price fixing.

They wouldn't have to, in fairness, while dealing with the morons that run this country.

Pantera varro

If this subject interests you,watch this.

http://youtu.be/76VOnzXQMsU

whubee

Simple answer to this whole topic/dilemma.

(a)They drill and find nothing - business is business, oh well.

(b)They drill and they find something - heres your expenses, nice meeting you, dont let the door hit you.


oh oh but international reputation.. like whatevvver, we got oil, talk to the hand.

Yahew

whubee wrote: »

Simple answer to this whole topic/dilemma.

(a)They drill and find nothing - business is business, oh well.

(b)They drill and they find something - heres your expenses, nice meeting you, dont let the door hit you.


oh oh but international reputation.. like whatevvver, we got oil, talk to the hand.

Lol.

1) We don't have oil.
2) your formula would make it non-profitable to drill. Obviously.

whubee

hmm....will consider

andrew

WHY DOES THIS KEEP COMING UP.

The Irish government can tax the oil coming out of the ground at a rate of their choosing. It doesn't matter a **** what the rate is now, or who owns the oil/gas, or who finds it. All that matters is that it's actually found... which means incentivising firms to prospect here, which the government are doing. Shell to sea, by the way, have undone this incentivisation by doubling the cost of the Corrib project, making sure that in future, companies will be wary of investing here, potentially depriving the people of this country of a lot of money.

We should look for the oil/gas ourselves then, you say. Well exploration costs money, about 100 million per well. Say the Irish government digs 10 wells a year, (not much really), that's a billion. Lets say they get lucky on their hundredth well, after ten years (an optimistic assumption), then that's cost 10 billion JUST TO FIND IT. And that's assuming that the government don't do something wrong along the way. 10 billion we don't have. If you think this will improve our current economic position, you're objectively wrong.

4leto

The chap is a dreamer or mad.

Norwegian oil is shallow oil, you have a problem you send down a diver to fix it, Our PERHAPS POTENTIAL OIL is deep sea oil. you have a problem and you have the deep water horizon.

The tech is not licked yet, its getting there, its why there was only 15 licences applied to drill in the area in the last 5 years while the north sea had a 100. Its cutting edge technology and I don't think Stat oil drill those wells.

K-9

andrew wrote: »

We should look for the oil/gas ourselves then, you say. Well exploration costs money, about 100 million per well. Say the Irish government digs 10 wells a year, (not much really), that's a billion. Lets say they get lucky on their hundredth well, after ten years (an optimistic assumption), then that's cost 10 billion JUST TO FIND IT. And that's assuming that the government don't do something wrong along the way. 10 billion we don't have. If you think this will improve our current economic position, you're objectively wrong.

It'll take years with planning objections and protests about whatever else they think up to protest about then.

Anyway, it has been done to death on the politics board, here's recent one:

Our Oil and Gas - boards.ie

FGR

It's not the tax rate that's really the issue though. Wasn't the original argument revolving around the fact that the Gov would allow said companies to write off any costs associated with their operations against their tax?

That 25% would become fairly insignificant by the end of it all.