Is the game up? what to do?

Jelly 292

Hello,

I'm probably reading to many threads on the Internet ;boards, on AAM, and P.ie but I get the feeling that we are heading for an almighty crunch with the Euro currency, whole world financial system.

No matter what our government, the EU or ECB say; at this stage I would not trust a single thing from any of their mouths.

I have ready many threads from jittery Irish deposit holders about what to do with their hard earned deposits and for every answer there seems to be an opposite opnion.This only confounds the confusion.

Personally I think there is a reckoning coming for the Euro and that Ireland will default and return to some form of Punt Nua. Last week all seemed sorted with the EU but this week its all panic stations again, politicians and bankers trying to reassure us all the they have things under control when the facts seem to contradict this.

Now as you have guessed I am pretty much economically illiterate apart from how to manage my week to week life, normal money stuff , thats grand.
I have come into some money now and I am desperately trying to figure out what to do. There is no easy answer it seems, a case of least worst options.

I feel I have to do something now though because if the arse falls out of the whole thing overnight and my € is converted into new funny money it will be postal time!!


All I want to do is keep deposit safe as possible for time being, not invest as such.

At the moment my € is deposited with RaboDirect- Problem is that if Ireland goes to punt nua, as far as I can tell, those € deposits will turn to Irish punts and will take a huge hit.

So I could go and open a sterling account but sterling is looking pretty unhealthy and it seems they are just printing money at the moment.

Swiss Francs/Krona- I have not a clue; the safest currencies?

Dollar- Its doomed by all accounts

Gold- Is it a bubble? If I have bought a few months back I would have made a profit. This is bubble thought though, like the housing boom, I must buy now or miss out and then BANG,tears. Or not? Gold I just cant figure out who is right.

Silver- Safer version of gold?

Investments through a Financial Advisor? I went to see one and he was more like a salesman,he just wanted to draw up a portfolio for his firm. maybe I should see another. Again, Don't want to risk my money to make a quick buck. Safety is priority.

Hard Cash in Euro , strapped to my body like that awul fella in Cork?

I know this has been done to death but any light shone on my very limited awareness of these things would be much appreciated , I really feel like the clock is ticking.
Many thanks

howamidifferent

Some guy on Sam Smith on Sunday radio was saying that the only safe currency with potential was the Singapore Dollar.

Jelly 292

Singapore Dollar, wow, that is a new one! my research list has expanded

handlemaster

howamidifferent wrote: »

Some guy on Sam Smith on Sunday radio was saying that the only safe currency with potential was the Singapore Dollar.

Did he happen to mention why ?

Hal Emmerich

Of all these types of threads I've read I never seen a proper/straight answer in any of them, as you said.

A stock in a blue chip company , Tesco...Johnson & Johnson...Sky Maybe, they'll probably drop if the **** did hit the Fan but they'll always rebound.

I read the other day that Johnson & Johnson are the biggest exporter out of Ireland at the minute at €8billion.

Swiss Government are in process of trying to weaken the Franc, it's to strong and messing up price of exports....probably been strengthened by all the money going into it though.:rolleyes:

Norwegian Krone is always mentioned as a good stable currency, they have/export oil.

I don't know.....find out what the hedgefunds and big city banks are putting there money in since they've being betting/orchestrating a Euro fail for years....:rolleyes:

fricatus

Rule no 1: Seek independent professional financial advice rather than asking on an internet forum!
Rule no 2: If you must break rule no 1, then at least diversify your holdings across asset classes, industries and geographic markets. If you can't do this yourself, then at least put your money in a fund that does (i.e. one that covers property, resources, cash, bonds and stocks, and which does so across multiple markets).

Jelly 292

Many thanks, Ill revisit rule 1 and look into rule 2.

Last night-Panic but today things seem OK ish agian...

Hal Emmerich

Jelly 292 wrote: »

Many thanks, Ill revisit rule 1 and look into rule 2.

Last night-Panic but today things seem OK ish agian...

It's being like that for over 2 years now, they're all a bunch of halfwits as far as I can see.

hmmm

There's always the next big disaster around the corner. If investing was easy with no risk, no-one would ever make a penny. A fairly conservative portfolio is up 40% since 2008 and has recovered all the losses it made in 2007/2008, yet there's been people continuously telling everyone the end is nigh. So what if the market is down 10% this year.

Some people are too timid to be investors, others love their disaster porn and yet more spend all their lives scared of something around the corner. Let them invest in concrete bunkers and tinned food to their hearts content.

irishh_bob

Hal Emmerich wrote: »

Of all these types of threads I've read I never seen a proper/straight answer in any of them, as you said.

A stock in a blue chip company , Tesco...Johnson & Johnson...Sky Maybe, they'll probably drop if the **** did hit the Fan but they'll always rebound.

I read the other day that Johnson & Johnson are the biggest exporter out of Ireland at the minute at €8billion.

Swiss Government are in process of trying to weaken the Franc, it's to strong and messing up price of exports....probably been strengthened by all the money going into it though.:rolleyes:

Norwegian Krone is always mentioned as a good stable currency, they have/export oil.

I don't know.....find out what the hedgefunds and big city banks are putting there money in since they've being betting/orchestrating a Euro fail for years....:rolleyes:

while thier are blue chip stocks which are going nowhere , take nestle for example , prior to yesterday , it had a 52 wk range of 48 - 56 euro , exceptionally tight range , i.e , boring but reliable , trouble is , stocks are still quite expensive , were you to put money in the likes of coca cola , vodafone , apple etc , your money wouldnt go up im smoke but it could languish at lows for a few years

Speculator

Jelly 292 wrote: »

Hello,

I'm probably reading to many threads on the Internet ;boards, on AAM, and P.ie but I get the feeling that we are heading for an almighty crunch with the Euro currency, whole world financial system.

No matter what our government, the EU or ECB say; at this stage I would not trust a single thing from any of their mouths.

I have ready many threads from jittery Irish deposit holders about what to do with their hard earned deposits and for every answer there seems to be an opposite opnion.This only confounds the confusion.

Personally I think there is a reckoning coming for the Euro and that Ireland will default and return to some form of Punt Nua. Last week all seemed sorted with the EU but this week its all panic stations again, politicians and bankers trying to reassure us all the they have things under control when the facts seem to contradict this.

Now as you have guessed I am pretty much economically illiterate apart from how to manage my week to week life, normal money stuff , thats grand.
I have come into some money now and I am desperately trying to figure out what to do. There is no easy answer it seems, a case of least worst options.

I feel I have to do something now though because if the arse falls out of the whole thing overnight and my € is converted into new funny money it will be postal time!!


All I want to do is keep deposit safe as possible for time being, not invest as such.

At the moment my € is deposited with RaboDirect- Problem is that if Ireland goes to punt nua, as far as I can tell, those € deposits will turn to Irish punts and will take a huge hit.

So I could go and open a sterling account but sterling is looking pretty unhealthy and it seems they are just printing money at the moment.

Swiss Francs/Krona- I have not a clue; the safest currencies?

Dollar- Its doomed by all accounts

Gold- Is it a bubble? If I have bought a few months back I would have made a profit. This is bubble thought though, like the housing boom, I must buy now or miss out and then BANG,tears. Or not? Gold I just cant figure out who is right.

Silver- Safer version of gold?

Investments through a Financial Advisor? I went to see one and he was more like a salesman,he just wanted to draw up a portfolio for his firm. maybe I should see another. Again, Don't want to risk my money to make a quick buck. Safety is priority.

Hard Cash in Euro , strapped to my body like that awul fella in Cork?

I know this has been done to death but any light shone on my very limited awareness of these things would be much appreciated , I really feel like the clock is ticking.
Many thanks

Some simple advice

Motley Fool : http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2011/08/03/5-things-to-remember-as-the-market-gets-wild.aspx?source=uhpsithla0000002

Blisterman

Personally I think shares are safer than cash.

Cash is a meaningless abstract, with no value other than what people are willing to accept for it. Look at the hyperinflation in Zimbabwe or Weimar Republic Germany to see what happens if people lose faith in it.

With shares, you own a percentage of a real company with real people doing real work. Sure they'll be hit badly, some may possibly even go out of business, but the big companies tend to survive even the toughest crises, and in 200 plus years, the stock market as a whole has always recovered any losses.

irishh_bob

Blisterman wrote: »

Personally I think shares are safer than cash.

Cash is a meaningless abstract, with no value other than what people are willing to accept for it. Look at the hyperinflation in Zimbabwe or Weimar Republic Germany to see what happens if people lose faith in it.

With shares, you own a percentage of a real company with real people doing real work. Sure they'll be hit badly, some may possibly even go out of business, but the big companies tend to survive even the toughest crises, and in 200 plus years, the stock market as a whole has always recovered any losses.

yes but if we are at the begining of a prolonged and deep rescession , stocks are over priced right now , even the most rock solid of companys could drop a lot further and languish for years

Blisterman

Well that depends on how pessamistic you are.
According to the link that Speculator posted

"Many -- maybe most -- stocks are not overvalued today. I've highlighted companies like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT.US), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG.US), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL.US), and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B.US), which trade at or near some of their lowest valuations ever. Even looking at broad market indices, it's hard to play the overvaluation card. The S&P 500 trades at 14.3 times trailing earnings. The average since 1988 is 19 times earnings."

So on a historical basis, they're not. Particularly as these earnings have taken place in a recession.

But if you believe they're gonna see a sharp drop in revenue in the coming years, they could be. But the point I was making was that if you're really pessamistic, and think cash is going to be worthless, than you're better off in shares. (Possibly better off again with gold, but that's a different arguement).

The yellow line in this chart shows the Dow Jones adjusted for inflation



So, ok if you buy at a peak, it could be 3 decades before your shares are worth as much. But that doesn't take dividends into consideration. And how much is cash under a mattress going to be worth after 30 years?

irishh_bob

Blisterman wrote: »

Well that depends on how pessamistic you are.
According to the link that Speculator posted

"Many -- maybe most -- stocks are not overvalued today. I've highlighted companies like Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT.US), Google (NASDAQ: GOOG.US), Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL.US), and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-B.US), which trade at or near some of their lowest valuations ever. Even looking at broad market indices, it's hard to play the overvaluation card. The S&P 500 trades at 14.3 times trailing earnings. The average since 1988 is 19 times earnings."

So on a historical basis, they're not. Particularly as these earnings have taken place in a recession.

But if you believe they're gonna see a sharp drop in revenue in the coming years, they could be. But the point I was making was that if you're really pessamistic, and think cash is going to be worthless, than you're better off in shares. (Possibly better off again with gold, but that's a different arguement).

The yellow line in this chart shows the Dow Jones adjusted for inflation



So, ok if you buy at a peak, it could be 3 decades before your shares are worth as much. But that doesn't take dividends into consideration. And how much is cash under a mattress going to be worth after 30 years?

im deeply pesimistic about the next few years