BOI shares

eor123

I just set up an account with sharewatch.ie and am just wondering are Bank of Ireland shares worth putting a few euros into, there around the 10c mark at the moment, with the new investors coming in and all that is it worth it, or will they fall again?

Thanks

Monty Burnz

eor123 wrote: »

I just set up an account with sharewatch.ie and am just wondering are Bank of Ireland shares worth putting a few euros into, there around the 10c mark at the moment, with the new investors coming in and all that is it worth it, or will they fall again?

Thanks

Total punt. It's a gamble, not an investment.

irishh_bob

eor123 wrote: »

I just set up an account with sharewatch.ie and am just wondering are Bank of Ireland shares worth putting a few euros into, there around the 10c mark at the moment, with the new investors coming in and all that is it worth it, or will they fall again?

Thanks

this foreign buyer news has been a damp squib , the stock has had no bounce and has actually dropped back from 11 to 9 pence , hard to see what will breathe life back into this vegetable

Tin Foil Hat

eor123 wrote: »

I just set up an account with sharewatch.ie and am just wondering are Bank of Ireland shares worth putting a few euros into, there around the 10c mark at the moment, with the new investors coming in and all that is it worth it, or will they fall again?

Thanks

There was no possible way they could go any lower when I baught mine ...... @ 0.69c

Don't do it.

Monty Burnz

Tin Foil Hat wrote: »

There was no possible way they could go any lower when I baught mine ...... @ 0.69c

Don't do it.

Well, they could go to zero.

KinchTheBlade

I find this BOI thing intriguing right now...
Has anyone a view on why Wilbur Ross et al have made this investment in a bank which many here seem to think is heading inexorably towards 0c per share?
One might imagine that such "big boys" know something that the people on this board may not. That said, the investment has produced no discernible bounce for the share price.
Are the other "big boys" waiting 'til after the 12th when there well may be a lot of stock dumping or it is perhaps that WR is just taking a 'small' speculative punt wiith their 1.6 billion?
The whole thing is odd no?

irishh_bob

KinchTheBlade wrote: »

I find this BOI thing intriguing right now...
Has anyone a view on why Wilbur Ross et al have made this investment in a bank which many here seem to think is heading inexorably towards 0c per share?
One might imagine that such "big boys" know something that the people on this board may not. That said, the investment has produced no discernible bounce for the share price.
Are the other "big boys" waiting 'til after the 12th when there well may be a lot of stock dumping or it is perhaps that WR is just taking a 'small' speculative punt wiith their 1.6 billion?
The whole thing is odd no?

very odd , you would think the stock should at least be at 20 cent by now off the back of this news , it would still be priced at peanuts yet nothing

mikerockfield

irishh_bob wrote: »

very odd , you would think the stock should at least be at 20 cent by now off the back of this news , it would still be priced at peanuts yet nothing

I think if you want to buy this you will have to be in for the long term i.e. 6-10 years. As this is going nowhere fast.
I would not buy these before the 12th of August as the Bondholders have changed their bonds to equity and it is expected they will offload enmass on the 12th. (check out story in sunday business post).

One thing I found crazy was the amount of people who bought these for 3-4 euro and just expected them to go up again beacause they were 18 euro before, without doing any research and taking into account the bad debt the bank has and its current situation.

The main reason the price has remained stagnant is more than likely due to the whole European problem

OR MAYBE BECAUSE:

The bank have just issued millions of shares thus driving the Market cap way up, even at 10p (2.3BLN) the bank is probably over valued. For these to hit, lets say 30p-40p the bank would be valued closer to 10bln euro (approx). Do you believe they are worth that money at this moment in time??

Now that the Government only hold 15%, expect to see the major sharholders flex more muscle over the coming year and I predict a share consolidation in the new year!

KinchTheBlade

I completely agree with your point re. 12th
I completely agree with your point re. 6-10 years
I completely agree with your point re. Market Cap
I completely agree with your prediction re. share consolidation (based on a number of pieces I've read rather than any personal expertise).

All of confirms my (completely amateur) opinion that BOI is more or less a complete mutt BUT I still can't see the WR angle. What's in it for them?

Furthermore It seems to me that share consolidation would smother any positive volatility (especially given that there is almost no remaining negative volatility to dampen)?

Again I can't see the WR angle in pushing for this - can anyone offer an opinion?

KinchTheBlade

The other point I forgot to make is that (from recollection) they paid 1.6 B for just under 34% of the bank. So they're saying they think the bank is worth 4.8 billion. Again, WTF?
I've only taken an interset in a taking a long term position (10 years+, after the 12th) in BOI based on the WR investment but can't see what its about other than (a) an unknown known or (b) blind faith. I'm assuming (a0 but don't know what it might be, especially given more or less everything, right now)

WooPeeA

BOI is -6% today on NASDAQ at the moment. Don't think it will go up a lot before end of session.

mikerockfield

Just a theory but could WR and Fairfax etc. etc. be investing for a takeover??..Does anybody here know how low do share prices have to go before they would be delisted in NewYork and London??..If that were to happen then the value of this would slide considerably leaving them with a cheap takeover and our Government only holding 15% would be powerless to stop it!

This bank does have a very proffitable loan book (once the loans are being repaid obviously) and a nice insurance arm which attracted WR and Fairfax.

Ross has a history with Fairfax and he also has a history of buying business that are bankrupt or going poorly and transforming them ruthlessly, I fear people in the BOI will lose jobs over the coming years as he seeks to cut costs in an attempt to flip this bank over and sell for profit. He has done this many times in the past!

Just a theory though of course!!

I thought this was a very intresting article, I like how he seperates Ireland from the "Club Med" as he calls them, he speaks very highly of Ireland and the countries attitude as a whole!! He also reckons they have a book value of 26c.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/30/us-bankofireland-wlross-idUSTRE76T11U20110730

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/05/02/coal-deal-shines-golden-for-wilbur-ross/

eor123

I think I'll wait a few months before pumping any money in! and see how the new investment goes down..

ranger4

Bondholders doint seem to be dumping but holding their shares so far today, Once we get bottom confirmend with global correction the sp should break through 11c resistance and start to recover.

Monty Burnz

ranger4 wrote: »

Bondholders doint seem to be dumping but holding their shares so far today, Once we get bottom confirmend with global correction the sp should break through 11c resistance and start to recover.

This chartism stuff is all well and good, but if the underlying business is a dead duck, then it's pretty useless in the longer term. And sadly I think BOI is a stone dead duck, albeit one that died on the wing and is taking a while to hit the ground.

ranger4

Monty Burnz wrote: »

This chartism stuff is all well and good, but if the underlying business is a dead duck, then it's pretty useless in the longer term. And sadly I think BOI is a stone dead duck, albeit one that died on the wing and is taking a while to hit the ground.

I doint believe so, willbur ross wouldnt have pumped all that cash into the bank if he believed this to be the case also no selloff from bondholders last friday just a temporary 7.8% dip before sp rebounded once merkle and sarc$nty agree to save the euro with eurobond plan this share will pop.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/bondholders-hang-on-to-their-bank-of-ireland-equity-2847439.html

Monty Burnz

ranger4 wrote: »

I doint believe so, willbur ross wouldnt have pumped all that cash into the bank if he believed this to be the case also no selloff from bondholders last friday just a temporary 7.8% dip before sp rebounded once merkle and sarc$nty agree to save the euro with eurobond plan this share will pop.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/bondholders-hang-on-to-their-bank-of-ireland-equity-2847439.html

That's gambling. The business is screwed, there's no visibility, they've enormous write-offs on domestic mortgages to come (the losses so far have been almost exclusively from the developer loans). I don't see how the fate of the euro makes a blind bit of difference to a bankrupt bank, and I don't have the kind of money Ross has to lose on a punt - if he even knows what he's doing.

I don't see any mechanism for the bank surviving over a 2 year horizon without another cash injection that will wipe out current shareholders for the umpteenth time.

Unless you are talking about a couple of weeks-long trading horizon, trying to make a trading profit; that's also too close to gambling for me, but others might have more luck.

Bullish

Wilber russ is probably as good a stock picker as you ranger , you have said the same rubbish since it was trading 3 euro, currently down 98% since then.:rolleyes:

ranger4

Monty Burnz wrote: »

That's gambling. The business is screwed, there's no visibility, they've enormous write-offs on domestic mortgages to come (the losses so far have been almost exclusively from the developer loans). I don't see how the fate of the euro makes a blind bit of difference to a bankrupt bank, and I don't have the kind of money Ross has to lose on a punt - if he even knows what he's doing.

I don't see any mechanism for the bank surviving over a 2 year horizon without another cash injection that will wipe out current shareholders for the umpteenth time.

Unless you are talking about a couple of weeks-long trading horizon, trying to make a trading profit; that's also too close to gambling for me, but others might have more luck.

Bkir in process of selling very large percentage of its us-uk Loan book which will raise billions of euros of fresh capital which can be used as capital buffer against future loan-mortagage writedowns, most recent comercial real estate deal in us sold at face value,

n a $1.4 billion deal, Wells Fargo has won the Bank of Ireland’s U.S. commercial-real-estate loan portfolio as the Irish bank attempts to deleverage its assets. The portfolio consists of 25 loans sold at close to face value and backed primarily by properties in New York, Boston and Washington[1]. First of many.

Monty Burnz

ranger4 wrote: »

Bkir in process of selling very large percentage of its us-uk Loan book which will raise billions of euros of fresh capital which can be used as capital buffer against future loan-mortagage writedowns.

If the loan book is worth billions then it's already on the balance sheet. There's not going to be a cash injection - they are just de-leveraging.

ranger4

was reported on sky news this morn that UK house prices could rise by 40% over the next 3-4 years, This is surley possitive news for the bank with its uk property portfolio and loan book, more possitive news:Bank of Ireland proved an outperformer on a day that saw European banks bear the brunt of the sell-off. The lender inched ahead to 9.2 cent amid speculation that the stock will be re-weighted in some FTSE indexes next Monday evening to take account of the fact that the State's stake in the institution will now only be 15 per cent.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0819/breaking50.html

Monty Burnz

ranger4 wrote: »

was reported on sky news this morn that UK house prices could rise by 40% over the next 3-4 years, This is surley possitive news for the bank with its uk property portfolio and loan book, more possitive news:Bank of Ireland proved an outperformer on a day that saw European banks bear the brunt of the sell-off. The lender inched ahead to 9.2 cent amid speculation that the stock will be re-weighted in some FTSE indexes next Monday evening to take account of the fact that the State's stake in the institution will now only be 15 per cent.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/0819/breaking50.html

I don't see the benefit from the (unlikely) prospect of property price rises in the UK. BOI own loans, not property. At best there is the prospect of getting back a tiny amount of bad debt provisions from UK operations. But of course if the crap really hits the fan (as seems more likely) there's a much greater risk of more loans going bad.

What happens with the Irish zombies is disconnected from what happens the real banks because they are zombies, not real banks that may make some money in the future.