Irish Growth Forecast Cut (Again)

Nijmegen

The Central Bank has cut its growth outlook for 2011...

• GDP growth will be 0.8%, not 0.9% as predicted in April
• GNP will go backwards -0.3%
• In other words, exports up, domestic economy continues to flatline

The growth figures are exceptionally important, because with growth comes naturally increased tax revenue meaning less cuts required to make fiscal targets.

The 4 Year Plan is now, like most of our Department of Financial Fiction predictions, so much waste paper - it predicted GDP growth of 1.75% in 2011.

More amusingly, it predicted 3.25% growth in 2012, with the central bank now predicting 2.1% growth (and one can bet whether or not that'll go further backwards.)

Unemployment has peaked but that's largely thanks to net emigration and lower participation - not new job creation. In other words, unemployment will fall but you won't see consumption tax grow from all those people not working...

So, here come the cuts.

Anyway, the plan is working etc.......

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Cookie_Monster

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

this corner you speak of, how many times have we turned it now?

Zonda999

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

this corner you speak of, how many times have we turned it now?

It appears to be some kind of circle

Cookie_Monster

Zonda999 wrote: »

It appears to be some kind of circle

putting corners on circles, that sounds expensive

Nody

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

putting corners on circles, that sounds expensive

Then clearly our government will want to have two at least... They can go in the same expense category as traffic lights in roundabouts and building to low tunnels...

ardmacha

This is not a material change and prospects for 2012 are largely influenced by how much the government cuts. Some of the people here call for the government to cut, but when they do cut and growth falls as a consequence they then point to the fall as in growth as meaning something.

Perhaps someone, perferably some here who know everything, would be kind enough to explain one point.

The article on the Central Bank says
It predicted exports will grow by 6.4 per cent this year and by 6.2 per cent in 2012, as external demand moderates during the remainder of the year and into 2012.

However, todays Irish Times has this article
Rise in exports in line with 9% increase forecast for year

If exports have already grown at 8% for the first half of the year then the export growth rate would need to decline by two-fifths in the second half the year if the Central Bank are correct with their 6.4% prediction.

ei.sdraob

ardmacha wrote: »

This is not a material change and prospects for 2012 are largely influenced by how much the government cuts. Some of the people here call for the government to cut, but when they do cut and growth falls as a consequence they then point to the fall as in growth as meaning something.

What's the alternative to cuts?:

+ Beg for some more billions of Eu/Imf?
+ Raise money by selling bonds at 12%?
+ Tax more out of people for benefit of certain segments of society

The growth figures were pulled out of an arse and are strangely linear and take no account if any possible world events occurring such as war or economic crises elsewhere that might hurt exports

Laisurg

Typical, Enda Kenny is a serious knobend, i fail to see how anyone thought voting for fianna gael would be a good idea, though they're all as ****é as each other at this stage... we'd all be better off with this bloke in charge

Laisurg

ei.sdraob wrote: »

What's the alternative to cuts?:

+ Beg for some more billions of Eu/Imf?
+ Raise money by selling bonds at 12%?
+ Tax more out of people for benefit of certain segments of society

The growth figures were pulled out of an arse and are strangely linear and take no account if any possible world events occurring such as war or economic crises elsewhere that might hurt exports

Default on the poxy loan already! It's been said so many times at this stage....

RichardAnd

Laisurg wrote: »

Typical, Enda Kenny is a serious knobend, i fail to see how anyone thought voting for fianna gael would be a good idea, though they're all as ****é as each other at this stage... we'd all be better off with this bloke in charge

Jesus, is that a joke or did that guy really run?

Debtocracy

Laisurg wrote: »

Typical, Enda Kenny is a serious knobend, i fail to see how anyone thought voting for fianna gael would be a good idea, though they're all as ****é as each other at this stage... we'd all be better off with this bloke in charge

That guy knows a thing or two about liquid assets.

Cookie_Monster

Laisurg wrote: »

Typical, Enda Kenny is a serious knobend, i fail to see how anyone thought voting for fianna gael would be a good idea, though they're all as ****é as each other at this stage... we'd all be better off with this bloke in charge

We really really wouldn't, he's a first class ass, I was in school with him

RichardAnd wrote: »

Jesus, is that a joke or did that guy really run?

Ran in the Dalkey for the county council, or at least put a load of posters up, can't remember if was on the ballot paper