Where do you see GOLD going?

LuckyG

Is it worth getting into it still in physical holdings?

Where do you see it going?

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

irishh_bob

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

surely the $1584 is much less significant than the euro 1121 price reached yesterday , the previous high was something like 1082 or something , gold rose twice as much in euro in the past week than it did in the previous nine months , with the gold in dollars heading for the magic 1600 mark and the surge in euro value , i see a significant sell off but i think we could be back to where we are now within three or four months , that is unless the situation re_ italy and spain deteriorates even further in the next few days , were the euro to collapse , gold would inevitabley go through the roof , doesnt look like it though , the euro was up against every major currency again today and was back in gold , think il ring goldcore tommorrow and sell the stuff i bought for 900 an ounce last year

Solnskaya

At €350 an ounce, I said buy, and it was a good buy. My view now is take profit and sell. My reasoning? The postman is talking about getting into gold. This gold spike will pass as do all spikes. Gold won't fall to previous values, I predict €900-€980 for a longer term level, but thats enough of a fall to wipe out margin. If you want a bet that will eclipse gold, buy water, or more precisly, buy water utilities and desalination stock. If you do even a shallow scan of whats happening in international markets, the heavy money is moving to water and where the whales migrate, the minnows follow. If you don't or cant back water, buy into security, the growths a-coming.

nesf

Better suited to a different forum.

Cavehill Red

The fundamentals haven't changed. Everyone is printing money, causing a run to safe havens (gold, silver, commodities, etc). And there is ongoing talk (Putin only this week) about swapping the dollar for a currency/commodities/gold basket as world reserve currency.

We're a long way from 'the postman' getting into gold. When I see corner shops springing up saying 'We Sell Bullion' instead of 'We Buy Gold', then I'll begin thinking about how far away the popping of the bubble is.

Gold is hitting records in nominal terms, but not in inflation-adjusted real terms. It has a long way to go there. And even further before it hits it's real value, I'd argue. It seems to me currently that we haven't even entered a bubble phase yet.

Cavehill Red

irishh_bob wrote: »

i agree with this but i still see a sell off in the immediete term , gold is down 9 euro an ounce since tuesday after having risen close to 90 euro an ounce within five days off the back of the news on italy , the euro is back up to 1 . 42 dollars today so while the eurozone crisis stumbles from eppisode to eppisode , the single currency isnt licked yet

I'll leave it to traders to trade. But they face choppy waters trading metals, never more so than now. I prefer to treat my metal holdings as a hedge against the ongoing erosion of value of paper currencies. Hence I buy and hold.
I wouldn't want to speculate on the future of the euro, but I don't expect it to look anything like the way it does now in five years time, and I hesitate to suggest what countries will be using it. I'll stick with gold and silver for now, and for the medium- to long-term, I think.

Joeyjoejoe43

I would be very careful about buying gold or silver, unless you are in for a quick buck, as looking at the graphs, it look very like bubble-territory to me.. Im no expert, but the graphs dont go up endlessly..

http://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html

http://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html

martyoo

The main reasons Gold is going is;

• Fear
• Uncertainty
• Inflation hedge
• Speculation
• Demand from China

I agree it looks like a bubble but bubbles can last a long time and considering what is pushing gold up I don't see it coming to and end any time soon.
Personally I have no interest in buying shiny metals. Prefer the old stocks myself

irishh_bob

martyoo wrote: »

The main reasons Gold is going is;

• Fear
• Uncertainty
• Inflation hedge
• Speculation
• Demand from China

I agree it looks like a bubble but bubbles can last a long time and considering what is pushing gold up I don't see it coming to and end any time soon.
Personally I have no interest in buying shiny metals. Prefer the old stocks myself

a perfect storm so , i agree about gold being a bubble but a drop in price right now would defy all logic considering the economic crisis both sides of the atlantic

ps , i didnt sell my gold , a lot has happened since last weeks post , i bought more gold today

bob50

How do i start buying gold

I really do think the euro is going to collapse shortly and i fear my savings will be worthless


Any tips will be greatly appreciated

Roonbox

Solnskaya wrote: »

At €350 an ounce, I said buy, and it was a good buy. My view now is take profit and sell. My reasoning? The postman is talking about getting into gold. This gold spike will pass as do all spikes. Gold won't fall to previous values, I predict €900-€980 for a longer term level, but thats enough of a fall to wipe out margin. If you want a bet that will eclipse gold, buy water, or more precisly, buy water utilities and desalination stock. If you do even a shallow scan of whats happening in international markets, the heavy money is moving to water and where the whales migrate, the minnows follow. If you don't or cant back water, buy into security, the growths a-coming.

Interesting, but your about 8 years early...
the postman isnt talking about buying gold yet.. the "we buy gold" shops will have queues outside them one day. That will be more of a signal. Even adjusted for inflation gold hasnt reached its 1980 high and every bull market always completely annihilates its previous bull market high.

obviously there will be huge pullbacks.. i wouldnt buy this week making all time hights


your right about water for sure....

Liam

Raskolnikov

Gold has been on an eight year bull run now, I think you'd be crazy to sell unless you saw a dramatic technical shift.

Monty Burnz

Raskolnikov wrote: »

Gold has been on an eight year bull run now, I think you'd be crazy to sell unless you saw a dramatic technical shift.

How long did the property bull run last? It's impossible to know when a bubble will burst, but I guess the huge advantage of gold over property is that is massively more liquid.

Joeyjoejoe43

Roonbox wrote: »

your right about water for sure....

Liam

Hi all, can you advise of some companies in this line which may be worth a punt.

Thanks

irishh_bob

bob50 wrote: »

How do i start buying gold

I really do think the euro is going to collapse shortly and i fear my savings will be worthless


Any tips will be greatly appreciated

il probabley be sent packing to the conspirocy theory forum with this post

the euro is not going to fail , the chineese were buying euros by the truckload yesterday and the euro is back up in value today , china dont want the american dollar to be the sole dominat global currency , in fact they want the euro there to weaken it , germany have been gunning for a more federalised europe all along , the likes of ireland , portugal and greece will be given an ultimatum , surrender almost complete economic descision making to the ECB or we will stop propping up your banking system , i really believe the descision will be that stark , cede almost complete soverignty or face penury , federalisation of europes economy will strengthen the euro to new heights


as for gold , by a stroke of luck , my order for gold didnt happen yesterday , thier has been a considerable correction in the price of gold in euro today , its back more than 10 euro per ounce , its obvious that the sky isnt going to fall in at this meeting on thursday , backroom deals have been done , i think gold is a good bet long term but im sorry i didnt offload what i had yesterday when it was at 1144 per ounce , could take months to get back to that level and drop back to 1050 quite easily , fears over italy , spain and the U.S dent ceiling had caused a huge surge in gold price but its clear now that america is not going to default , eventually obama will come to some agreement with house republicans and the heat will be off for at least a while , id hold off for a little while to get into gold

coola

irishh_bob wrote: »

il probabley be sent packing to the conspirocy theory forum with this post

the euro is not going to fail , the chineese were buying euros by the truckload yesterday and the euro is back up in value today , china dont want the american dollar to be the sole dominat global currency , in fact they want the euro there to weaken it , germany have been gunning for a more federalised europe all along , the likes of ireland , portugal and greece will be given an ultimatum , surrender almost complete economic descision making to the ECB or we will stop propping up your banking system , i really believe the descision will be that stark , cede almost complete soverignty or face penury , federalisation of europes economy will strengthen the euro to new heights


as for gold , by a stroke of luck , my order for gold didnt happen yesterday , thier has been a considerable correction in the price of gold in euro today , its back more than 10 euro per ounce , its obvious that the sky isnt going to fall in at this meeting on thursday , backroom deals have been done , i think gold is a good bet long term but im sorry i didnt offload what i had yesterday when it was at 1144 per ounce , could take months to get back to that level and drop back to 1050 quite easily , fears over italy , spain and the U.S dent ceiling had caused a huge surge in gold price but its clear now that america is not going to default , eventually obama will come to some agreement with house republicans and the heat will be off for at least a while , id hold off for a little while to get into gold

you call a 1% correction considerable ??

gold is going to go much higher over the next 10 years.

another poster said that the postman is buying gold ???

this is not true - shops are opening up and buying gold from people.

when people are going to vending machines to buy gold for themselves to make "riches" then the gold bull run is over.

Monty Burnz

coola wrote: »

gold is going to go much higher over the next 10 years.

...you think...

coola wrote: »

another poster said that the postman is buying gold ???

Yes, everybody is. We're long past the point where the smart money was buying it.

coola wrote: »

this is not true - shops are opening up and buying gold from people.

...to sell to postmen. During the property bubble, people were still selling properties. During the tech bubble, people were still selling tech shares.

coola wrote: »

when people are going to vending machines to buy gold for themselves to make "riches" then the gold bull run is over.

We are already there, but it's all online. Gold vending machines are rather impractical, as you might appreciate.

irishh_bob

coola wrote: »

you call a 1% correction considerable ??

gold is going to go much higher over the next 10 years.

another poster said that the postman is buying gold ???

this is not true - shops are opening up and buying gold from people.

when people are going to vending machines to buy gold for themselves to make "riches" then the gold bull run is over.

ive no interest in holding gold for ten years , as soon as this eurotrash is solved , im out and hopefully before it drops 30 % , im in it since the 1st half of 2010 but im up 12 % , that to me is still a great return , im not looking for a 500% return , dont have the instinct for the market or the patience

coola

Monty Burnz wrote: »

...you think...

Yes, everybody is. We're long past the point where the smart money was buying it.

...to sell to postmen. During the property bubble, people were still selling properties. During the tech bubble, people were still selling tech shares.

We are already there, but it's all online. Gold vending machines are rather impractical, as you might appreciate.

ok then

Isoaxe

coola wrote: »

when people are going to vending machines to buy gold for themselves to make "riches" then the gold bull run is over.

You can buy gold via vending machines for over a year already in the UAE.

Monty Burnz

coola wrote: »

ok then

Fair response

I don't mean to sound harsh, and I'm not saying I know for certain that gold isn't going to double or treble in value again, but I've been around long enough to spot when things are getting a bit toppy, and the graph of gold prices tells you more than any amount of posts from someone like me.

I spent the 2000's warning people about the property bubble, and it didn't make a blind bit of difference (even to close friends), so I'm sure I'm wasting my time here, but I hate to see people losing money.

Roonbox

Monty Burnz wrote: »

...you think...

Yes, everybody is. We're long past the point where the smart money was buying it.

...to sell to postmen. During the property bubble, people were still selling properties. During the tech bubble, people were still selling tech shares.

We are already there, but it's all online. Gold vending machines are rather impractical, as you might appreciate.

Again your early...

You have to appreciate that at the top of a Bull Run, everybody knows about gold ..EVERYBODY. Its a conversation piece over the dinner table between people who normally know nothing about investing.

We are not there yet.

I will concede that we have taken major steps over the last while with the constant headlines of gold making new all time highs.

A bull run always goes longer than anyone expects.

Monty Burnz

Roonbox wrote: »

A bull run always goes longer than anyone expects.

That's true - but I'm wary of words like 'always'.

irishh_bob

Roonbox wrote: »

Again your early...

You have to appreciate that at the top of a Bull Run, everybody knows about gold ..EVERYBODY. Its a conversation piece over the dinner table between people who normally know nothing about investing.

We are not there yet.

I will concede that we have taken major steps over the last while with the constant headlines of gold making new all time highs.

A bull run always goes longer than anyone expects.

but is gold comparable to three bed semis in naas , hedge funds werent buying up property in ireland like crazy prior to 2007 , its not the average joe who owns 5 k in prescious metals which has gold where it is , the stock market hasnt done much this past three months and thier was a flight to metals , gold could soon be dumped again ( for a while at least ) in favour of equities and when it will , it will be by the tonne from the likes of goldman sachs

colsku

Joe Soap thought property prices would rise forever and were a great investment.

Joe Soap now, having seen property prices plummet, thinks he can recognise a bubble and now thinks gold is in a bubble, not a great investment.

Poor Joe is wrong again.

The Euro, USD, GBP and any other major currency (possibly with the exception of the CHF) will continue to dwindle against precious metals, which continue to be surpressed by the President's Working Group on Financial Markets.

I look forward to revisiting this thread in 12 months time.

Monty Burnz

colsku wrote: »

Joe Soap thought property prices would rise forever and were a great investment.

Joe Soap now, having seen property prices plummet, thinks he can recognise a bubble and now thinks gold is in a bubble, not a great investment.

Poor Joe is wrong again.

I'm not seeing Joe Soap posting on this thread

neris

Joe Soap - Bubbles ??

colsku

Monty Burnz wrote: »

I'm not seeing Joe Soap posting on this thread

I am! .... and that's where we differ I suppose.

Roonbox

Monty Burnz wrote: »

That's true - but I'm wary of words like 'always'.

I'll make that "usually" instead Monty

Anyone wanting to learn what to invest in, and is not obsessed with short term gains and instant results, could do much worse than follow Jim Rogers.

The man is a legend.

I think there could be a big pullback in gold over the next 6 months.. during which time I'll be buy as much as I can.

Liam

bob50

Roonbox wrote: »

I'll make that "usually" instead Monty

Anyone wanting to learn what to invest in, and is not obsessed with short term gains and instant results, could do much worse than follow Jim Rogers.

The man is a legend.

I think there could be a big pullback in gold over the next 6 months.. during which time I'll be buy as much as I can.

Liam

Where is Jim Rogers based ?

Monty Burnz

colsku wrote: »

I am! .... and that's where we differ I suppose.

Well, that and also one of us thinks he can see the future, and the other realises that he can't...

beagle001

Monty Burnz wrote: »

colsku wrote: »

I am! .... and that's where we differ I suppose.

Well, that and also one of us thinks he can see the future, and the other realises that he can't...

Ohh this reminds me of the housing bubble,I won't touch physical gold but some of the mining companies look promising short term.
It's timing really if you can make a quick return go with it but the scary thing is when you see travelling gold roadshows advertising in the local ragg,the neighbours whispering about this actually frightens me.
Be fearful when all are being brave is a motto a wise man once said.

DavidJC

Hope you all sold last night as the drop is well on!

Seems to be on the way down following US news and tomorrow's EU meeting will probably bring it down more depending on how they deal with Greece.

Monty Burnz

beagle001 wrote: »

Ohh this reminds me of the housing bubble,I won't touch physical gold but some of the mining companies look promising short term.
It's timing really if you can make a quick return go with it but the scary thing is when you see travelling gold roadshows advertising in the local ragg,the neighbours whispering about this actually frightens me.
Be fearful when all are being brave is a motto a wise man once said.

Yup. I can't see the future, but I can learn from the past. Gold may double in the next 2 years, or it may halve. I reckon the former is more likely, but with no information to base a proper decision on, it's too close to gambling for my taste.

Monty Burnz

DavidJC wrote: »

Hope you all sold last night as the drop is well on!

The drop will be 'well on' when it loses 30-50% of its value over a few years. Losing 1% overnight is an irrelevance tbh.

coola

Monty Burnz wrote: »

The drop will be 'well on' when it loses 30-50% of its value over a few years. Losing 1% overnight is an irrelevance tbh.

exactly. gold is 1580 down from an all time high of 1610 - not even worth mentioning.

irishh_bob

the hype surrounding this big meeting on thursday seems to have completley died down , same deal with the debt ceiling deadline in america , im kicking myself that i didnt take profits when it hit 1144 euro an ounce on monday , this figure coincided with the 1600 dollar mark being breached in america , milestones like this always result in a sell off , same thing happened with silver hitting near 50 dollars an ounce in may , Q , a sell off of 30 % within a week , i dont see the same happening with gold but it should be back to well under 1100 an ounce by this time next week , could take six months to get back to where it was on monday :mad:

coola

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Yup. I can't see the future, but I can learn from the past. Gold may double in the next 2 years, or it may halve. I reckon the former is more likely, but with no information to base a proper decision on, it's too close to gambling for my taste.

risky indeed but its the last stages of the bull markets where the enormous gains are made. playing with fire i know but sometimes its tough to turn down the potential gains. you must have an exit strategy though :-)

irishh_bob

coola wrote: »

exactly. gold is 1580 down from an all time high of 1610 - not even worth mentioning.

the drop from 1610 to 1580 is meaningless , the americans have no choice but to raise the debt ceiling again by august 1st , this will see gold rise again in dollars , the price of gold in euro is a different story , the euro had a bit of a wobble this past ten days but has clearly rebounded , gold rose very little for nearly a year in euro , the surge this past ten days will quickly be reversed regardless of what happens with the dollar

coola

irishh_bob wrote: »

the drop from 1610 to 1580 is meaningless , the americans have no choice but to raise the debt ceiling again by august 1st , this will see gold rise again in dollars , the price of gold in euro is a different story , the euro had a bit of a wobble this past ten days but has clearly rebounded , gold rose very little for nearly a year in euro , the surge this past ten days will quickly be reversed regardless of what happens with the dollar

the next while will be interesting. as you say the US will definetely raise the debt ceiling. it all depends on what europe do, if they start a mass QE , start to print money and buy the bonds of the peripheral countries then gold will go up in all terms

irishh_bob

coola wrote: »

the next while will be interesting. as you say the US will definetely raise the debt ceiling. it all depends on what europe do, if they start a mass QE , start to print money and buy the bonds of the peripheral countries then gold will go up in all terms

if the ECB ( germany ) were to decide to print money , that would be a way of letting the likes of ireland , portugal and italy off the hook, the germans want to let us and the other broke ass nations sweat untill we eventually face the prospect of having no cash and no one to give it to us , we then go on our knees to germany and beg to be part of a federal europe , not sure how quickly this will happen but a federal europe while politcally sensitive would strengthen the euro no end , the germans are playing a long game

coola

irishh_bob wrote: »

if the ECB ( germany ) were to decide to print money , that would be a way of letting the likes of ireland , portugal and italy off the hook, the germans want to let us and the other broke ass nations sweat untill we eventually face the prospect of having no cash and no one to give it to us , we then go on our knees to germany and beg to be part of a federal europe , not sure how quickly this will happen but a federal europe while politcally sensitive would strengthen the euro no end , the germans are playing a long game

they will play a long game as long as it suits them. if it started to cause problems in the german economy they wouldnt be long coming up with a solution

irishh_bob

coola wrote: »

they will play a long game as long as it suits them. if it started to cause problems in the german economy they wouldnt be long coming up with a solution

the germans dont want the euro to fail or to leave the euro , either would result in a return to the deutsch mark for germany , thier currency would be too strong and hit thier exports but they also dont want what they see as financially wreckless nations like ireland , portugal or greece spending like drunken sailors at germanys expense , they want frankfurt to have a direct say in our budgetery descisions , this process will involve a number of things , one of them being us loosing our corporation tax , closer intergration would result in public spending being lowered here drastically , i think this country should leave the euro , if were going to see incomes slashed , we might aswell make the descisons ourselves rather than have the european finance minister make the call

ps , ireland leaving the euro would see rewards for those who stuck with gold

coola

irishh_bob wrote: »

the germans dont want the euro to fail or to leave the euro , either would result in a return to the deutsch mark for germany , thier currency would be too strong and hit thier exports but they also dont want what they see as financially wreckless nations like ireland , portugal or greece spending like drunken sailors at germanys expense , they want frankfurt to have a direct say in our budgetery descisions , this process will involve a number of things , one of them being us loosing our corporation tax , closer intergration would result in public spending being lowered here drastically , i think this country should leave the euro , if were going to see incomes slashed , we might aswell make the descisons ourselves rather than have the european finance minister make the call

ps , ireland leaving the euro would see rewards for those who stuck with gold

ireland leave the euro? that would be disasterous. we would float our own currency and it would be worthless, who would we get the bailout funds from?

irishh_bob

coola wrote: »

ireland leave the euro? that would be disasterous. we would float our own currency and it would be worthless, who would we get the bailout funds from?

so you would perfer cede complete economic soverignty to europe - germany

coola

irishh_bob wrote: »

so you would perfer cede complete economic soverignty to europe - germany

compared to the alternative - yes

coola

DavidJC wrote: »

Hope you all sold last night as the drop is well on!

Seems to be on the way down following US news and tomorrow's EU meeting will probably bring it down more depending on how they deal with Greece.

bouncing hard off its 10 day MA. sovereign debt not fixed yet!

irishh_bob

coola wrote: »

bouncing hard off its 10 day MA. sovereign debt not fixed yet!

i hope you realise that a federal europe would solidify the euro almost completley , strengthening the single currency to new highs never seen , gold ( in euro ) would surely dive in value with such an outcome , a federal europe is a while away yet but anyone who sees it as inevitable should have a prescious metals exit strategy

coola

irishh_bob wrote: »

i hope you realise that a federal europe would solidify the euro almost completley , strengthening the single currency to new highs never seen , gold ( in euro ) would surely dive in value with such an outcome , a federal europe is a while away yet but anyone who sees it as inevitable should have a prescious metals exit strategy

buy it in dollar terms then

irishh_bob

coola wrote: »

buy it in dollar terms then

gold is valued in dollars so even its 2000 per ounce , if the euro is buying two dollars , the gains are limited for someone in ireland , a strong euro is useless for anyone in gold