Open Championship picks

sssssiiiiimon

Just wondering who are people backing for the open championship.

I'm going to go with:

Mcilroy
Day
Jacobsen

The_Kew_Tour

Nick Watney ew at 33/1 with paddy power giving 7 places has to be snapped up. He has done well in Open too

YE Yang is another I be backing

foxyboxer

The Open is always difficult to predict especially hard this year with Sandwich being one of the toughest venues.

As always there will be an obscure American playing the golf of his life.

Pick would be; Luke Donald. Enjoying his best form and could capitalise on it with a solid performance, assuming he gets a lucky draw and the weather behaves.

JerryHandbag

sssssiiiiimon wrote: »

Just wondering who are people backing for the open championship.

I'm going to go with:

Mcilroy
Day
Jacobsen

Good shout, in form and did well last time Open was at Sandwich.

Thomas Bjorn will be my outside pick, really threw it away in 2003.

Edit: Oops just realised he hasnt qualified....yet

LostPassword

I'm on:

Watney 44/1
Kaymer 25/1
Harrington 75/1

FortuneChip

Sky Sports just confirmed Tiger won't be taking part!
I know a lot of people aren't fans of him by any stretch, but I think it's a shame.

Not betting yet, it should get more competitive next week amongst the bookies
I'm looking towards Jason Day, Aaron Baddeley and Alexander Noren

The_Kew_Tour

LostPassword wrote: »

I'm on:

Watney 44/1
Kaymer 25/1
Harrington 75/1

Savage price. He has done well in links courses came 7th last year and has won in Torrey pines

k.p.h

Watney has been playing great stuff recently and with the win under the belt you would definitely reckon he better than a 44/1 shot.

The_Kew_Tour

Yep its all about value at end of day.. That's why i cant back Rory for this one if he was double figures say 12/1 I get on but 6's is way too low.

fatherbuzcagney

20e e/w on TW is my bet for open;)

sssssiiiiimon

Watney would be good at 44/1

The_Kew_Tour

As of midnight Boyle sports will be offering eight places for Open if anyone is interested.

SARZY

Peter Hanson 80/1

plumber77

Think Freddie Jacobson and Goosen are decent e/w's.Garcia maybe since putting on links courses especially the short putts,ain't as tricky.

kincsem

Back________________Odds_____Stake_____Profit
Alvaro Quiros________80.00____50.00____3950.00
Ernie Els____________89.24____82.42____7272.98
Thomas Aiken______282.53____26.89____7570.31
Sean OHair_________340.00____30.00____10170.00
Edoardo Molinari_____250.00____30.00____7470.00
Jeff Overton_________310.12____6.02____1860.88
Ryo Ishikawa________326.07____23.62____7678.08
Steve Marino________270.00____24.67____6636.23
Joost Luiten_________595.11____15.45____9179.05
Kevin Streelman_____545.51____23.60____12850.50
Kevin Na____________632.95____30.00____18958.40
Ben Curtis__________225.38____64.00____14360.30
Bernhard Langer_____588.47___113.87____66895.63
Alejandro Canizares__937.62____38.00____35591.40
Markus Brier________1000.00____75.10____75024.90
_____________________________€633.64
_
Lay_________________Odds____Stake____Liability
Alvaro Quiros________75.00____50.00____3700.00
Thomas Aiken______200.00____25.00____4975.00
_____________________________€75.00

In 2003 I had 250 win, €100 place Thomas Bjorn at 100/1.

irishtoffee

How does that lay the odds work?

LostPassword

irishtoffee wrote: »

How does that lay the odds work?

It just means you bet against them winning (and you pay the reverse of the odds). Exchange sites like betfair are all about hedging bets by laying off as odds improve.

For example, while I backed Watney, Harrington and Kaymer, I don't actually think they will win - I figure McIlroy will - but at least one of them will be up there, meaning their odds will fall dramatically and I can lay them off and still make a profit even if they don't win. I backed them last week and they've all had their odds cut since, so I'm already in the black and could take my winnings now by laying them (only about 5% profit at this stage though so not worth it).

MyPeopleDrankTheSoup

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Yep its all about value at end of day.. That's why i cant back Rory for this one if he was double figures say 12/1 I get on but 6's is way too low.

Yep, but not as bad as Woods at around 15/1 when it was likely that he wouldn't even play! Shocking prices.

I'm liking a PaddyPower place bet on KJ Choui, 41/1

soundsham

georgiecasey wrote: »

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Yep its all about value at end of day.. That's why i cant back Rory for this one if he was double figures say 12/1 I get on but 6's is way too low.

Yep, but not as bad as Woods at around 15/1 when it was likely that he wouldn't even play! Shocking prices.

I'm liking a PaddyPower place bet on KJ Choui, 41/1

As there has been a near drought in this part of England for the last 3 months very little growth means very little rough and fairways like Flint

Therefore it means irons of many tees will do so I'd be expecting those with exceptional short games to lead the field

Donald
Poulter
Mc ilroy
Possibly Padraig as he can leave the driver in Ireland
And I fancy Sergio for a place at least

death1234567

Adam Scott, you heard it here first.

durkadurka

If it's windy will Rory suffer?

Dr.Silly

death1234567 wrote: »

Adam Scott, you heard it here first.

I would have to agree here and he's a great price as well..
One comment though that was made, that if it's any way windy, that could cause him trouble with the long putter...and as we know .. he's not the strongest of putters as it is.

Dr.Silly

durkadurka wrote: »

If it's windy will Rory suffer?

I don't think he'll suffer at all, in fact I think it will play to his advantage..
I don't think he'll win it though...

for once, I actually agree with Monty, I think he should have played in between the two majors.

listentotheroar

Henrik Stenson 50/1 with PP, T3 at 2 of the last 3 Opens

saintastic

Apart from Ben Curtis the last time, all the previous winners in RSG were top 20 in the previous year's British Open which suits all my fancies well:

Schwartzel
Oosthuizen
Stenson
Kaymer
Westwood (although his odds are putting me off)

JerryHandbag

Was tempted to bet on Thomas Levet, he's out injured though now. A costly jump in the lake after the French Open!

Morrisseeee

Watney, D Clarke & C Wood (FTW or FTE/W )

Shane10

i'll prob put some on westwood, this type of course will suit him. depends on the weather, if its a windy rain soaked weekend, who knows. to hard to predict the british open. great variety of bets, top 10/20 finish can still make a lot of money.

kincsem

irishtoffee wrote: »

How does that lay the odds work?

Your question was answered nicely further up the thread. I do not expect all (or any) of these golfers to win the Open. I am hoping some of them play well for a while and their odds drop. Then I will sell the bet at a profit. I would be very lucky to sell off half of my picks. What would ruin things for me would be a great start by Rory McIlroy.

I have already started to lay some.
Back________________Odds_____Stake_____Profit
Alvaro Quiros________80.00____50.00____3950.00
Thomas Aiken______282.53____26.89____7570.31
_____________________________€86.89
_
Lay_________________Odds____Stake____Liability
Alvaro Quiros________75.00____50.00____3700.00
Thomas Aiken______200.00____25.00____4975.00
_____________________________€75.00

If Quiros wins I get 3950-3700=250 for a nil cost, or I could sell the possible 250 for 250/80 ~ 3.10.
If Aiken wins I get 2595.31 for a 1.89 cost. But I would prefer to have Aiken's price fall to about 50 and sell him for 2595.32/50 = 51.90.

I need a big price drop to make a profit. Last year I backed Mark Calcavecchia at 1000 and sold at 100, and Oosthuizen at 12 and sold at 3.

redhill

Dr.Silly wrote: »

I don't think he'll suffer at all, in fact I think it will play to his advantage..
I don't think he'll win it though...

for once, I actually agree with Monty, I think he should have played in between the two majors.

rory (+coach) are over at Sandwich today and tomorrow preparing for next week

Bandana boy

redhill wrote: »

rory (+coach) are over at Sandwich today and tomorrow preparing for next week

I think this is a much better strategy than playing the Scottish this week.
Will get way more time on the course and will not have his practise sessions interupted by the fans who will be there Mon -Wed of next week

bm1993

Nicolas Colsaerts at 200/1

durkadurka

Bandana boy wrote: »

I think this is a much better strategy than playing the Scottish this week.
Will get way more time on the course and will not have his practise sessions interupted by the fans who will be there Mon -Wed of next week

You don't think he should take Monty's advice? That man knows how to win majors...

PhilipMarlowe

The tea leaves are saying Garcia for me but @ 20/1 I won't be betting.

Bandana boy

Will be having a small ew punt on
Cink, Stewart 80/1
Yang, Y.E 80/1

and depending on how he plays this weekend
Laird, Martin 80/1

bucks777

Fancy Sergio too but price too small, Peter Hanson at 150/1 is my outsider bet

Xlami

Got Chris Wood at 66/1 earlier in the week. Worth an e/w. Playing fairly well this weekend.

SM746

Licksy wrote: »

The tea leaves are saying Garcia for me but @ 20/1 I won't be betting.

yeah Im thinking him and Harrington but the prices on Garcia are very very poor though so I can see them moving out a little bit over the next 4/5 days but will put money on Padraig. Too talented a golfer not to get it back in tune sometime and I hope I see it happening soon

Bandana boy

With How Harry is playing I would wait until the Turn before investing in him

Aidric

Licksy wrote: »

The tea leaves are saying Garcia for me but @ 20/1 I won't be betting.

What tea leaves are you using?

mchammer

my picks

westwood (9/1)
goosen (40/1)
adam scott (50/1)
chris wood (66/1)

outside punt
Alexander noren (150/1)

have em backed at those odds today (all each way)

Dero123

Matt Kuchar for me think the fact he is playing this week show's he is keen to get some links golf in.
Peter Hanson would be my outside bet

sunbabe08

i'm going with my regular pick of the last 2 years because i firmly believe he's going to win one, lee westwood


and my 2nd pick, rory, because i've been putting bets on him for a year now:D

also jason day is a money bet each way


arcia, i have a feeling. maybe his putter might have a hot week

toxicgasmask

Chris Wood will have a top 10 at worst but wont win IMO, Harrington will do well aswell i think but im going for Westwood

A.Partridge

Have to say, I remember the last time this was played at Royal St George and it was like watching the Grand National in terms of trying to pick a winner.

The reason is that the links is just too quirky. Too many hogsback fairways so that even drives straight down the middle can end up in the rough, which I think is unfair.

A dog of a golf course to be honest and definitely the weakest of the 'Open' links IMO.

Because of this lottery situation I'd say a new name will emerge to take the title.

Who that will be?

Haven't the foggiest.

rehssu

Peter Hanson has to be backed at 90's on betfair. His odds will plummet come 6pm today after he wins the Scottish

Others to be there or there abouts are:

Westwood 11.5
Day 44
Harrington 46
Sergio 30

Outsiders:
Aiken 250
Woodland 350

The_Kew_Tour

rehssu wrote: »

Peter Hanson has to be backed at 90's on betfair. His odds will plummet come 6pm today after he wins the Scottish

Others to be there or there abouts are:

Westwood 11.5
Day 44
Harrington 46
Sergio 30

Outsiders:
Aiken 250
Woodland 350

Have him at 120:p

sweetswing

Harrington to Win by one over Garcia , Garcia to go mental and slam his putter into the back of Harringtons head killing him instantly , a sad day for golf !

vonbarracuda

I see Tom Watson is 250/1 :D:D:D

Hulk Hands

Can't understand how McIlroy is as big as 7's. I said after the US open that anything over 4/1 in the next few majors will be value. He's been the first round leader in 5 of the last 6 majors and should be over his bottling tendency after the US open. The course should suit. I'll be wading in at 7's, or maybe the 6's with Boyles who are paying 8 places

vonbarracuda

Steve Stricker is playing great golf now he could be worth a few bob too. Boyles paying 8 for e/w so will be paying them a visit