The end is nigh...

cgarrad

Wow this is bad, Gartman and Roubini both predict the end of the euro...

We have not seen anything yet if the euro collapses, every multi national will leave over night, we will still be bankrupt with no one to bail us out with continuing payments, bond markets want 11.4% at the moment (post collapse=???) and our debts will still be denominated in euro even though the punt will probably be worth 0.35-0.45 of the euro.

Serious end game stuff. Pay down your debts, open CHF bank account or prepare to leave....

Gartman:
http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/interviews/2791-dennis-gartman-long-gold-short-euros-with-eyes-on-irrational-corn.html

Roubini:
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/06/roubini-debt-restructuring-is-coming.html

Forewarned is forearmed.

Scofflaw

Eh, market speculation by market speculators. They're likely to be right about the movements of the market in the short term, but market analysts have been wrong about long-term political issues so often and so consistently it's bizarre anyone considers them a guide to long-term futures.

All that's required of a market analyst is short-term prognoses, because those who take their advice are usually trading within short-term horizons. Unfortunately, they feel the need to dress up their predictions with long-horizon 'political analysis' which isn't generally worth listening to - if it were, we wouldn't see droves of traders and analysts having their positions wiped out when major events actually occur.

They might be right, but it would almost certainly be by accident. It's worth reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb a bit, and considering his points, and the point made by others that the predictive success of analysts neatly follows a statistical pattern that indicates pure chance - that is, an analyst isn't "only as good as his last prediction", but that rather there's no correlation at all.

cordially,
Scofflaw

mad m

Can someone answer this for me, if the euro does go, what happens to savings in euro? If I had a few bob saved would I be better off putting it off my mortage?

Justin1982

cgarrad wrote: »

Wow this is bad, Gartman and Roubini both predict the end of the euro...

We have not seen anything yet if the euro collapses, every multi national will leave over night, we will still be bankrupt with no one to bail us out with continuing payments, bond markets want 11.4% at the moment (post collapse=???) and our debts will still be denominated in euro even though the punt will probably be worth 0.35-0.45 of the euro.

Serious end game stuff. Pay down your debts, open CHF bank account or prepare to leave....

Gartman:
http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/interviews/2791-dennis-gartman-long-gold-short-euros-with-eyes-on-irrational-corn.html

Roubini:
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/06/roubini-debt-restructuring-is-coming.html

Forewarned is forearmed.

Surrender monkey I say!

Noone knows for sure whats going to happen in reality. Some might have an opinion but thats it. I'd love to know if all these negative speculators are putting their money where their mouth is and short selling european stock? Like hell they are! Once you have to put your money where your mouth is then one becomes a lot less sure of themselves and you dont go mouthing off either.
And if they are still 100% confident after they put their money where their mouth is then they are bordering on being egocentric gamblers rather than anything thing else.

Sure capitalism is proving itself to be a bit of a joke and its been fairly abused by policy makers, bankers and politicians, but at the moment they are doing a half decent job of patching up holes that appear.
Personally I wouldnt bet on all these problems being sorted in some way or another. And I'm as worried as the next guy!
Ireland is an independent nation. You dont need money do run a country right. People and Government need to get their priorities right.

A well educated, organized and motivated country can do whatever the **** it wants to do with itself whether we default or not. If we cant do basic things right without money then we wont do it correctly with money!

dissed doc

cgarrad wrote: »

Wow this is bad, Gartman and Roubini both predict the end of the euro...

We have not seen anything yet if the euro collapses, every multi national will leave over night, we will still be bankrupt with no one to bail us out with continuing payments, bond markets want 11.4% at the moment (post collapse=???) and our debts will still be denominated in euro even though the punt will probably be worth 0.35-0.45 of the euro.

Serious end game stuff. Pay down your debts, open CHF bank account or prepare to leave....

Gartman:
http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/interviews/2791-dennis-gartman-long-gold-short-euros-with-eyes-on-irrational-corn.html

Roubini:
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/06/roubini-debt-restructuring-is-coming.html

Forewarned is forearmed.

Yup. Euro is finished. Just like the UK pound - seeing as it's periphery outside of central London is massively in debt and has no industrial output.....and also the US$ which ....also has magic beans backing it.

Inverse to the power of one!

A well educated, organized and motivated country can do whatever the **** it wants to do with itself....

What about a poorly governed, poorly motivated, corrupt, nepotist, highly indebted, immoralistic, cronyist, tax avoiding, handout demanding country?

As far as I'm concerned at this stage, I'm starting to think it can do what it wants with itself even going so far as to go **** itself.....oh wait...it already has.

Justin1982

Inverse to the power of one! wrote: »

What about a poorly governed, poorly motivated, corrupt, nepotist, highly indebted, immoralistic, cronyist, tax avoiding, handout demanding country?

As far as I'm concerned at this stage, I'm starting to think it can do what it wants with itself even going so far as to go **** itself.....oh wait...it already has.

Fair point These are all major problems in Irish society.
I'll try and be optimistic though :P

I still think that money is a state of mind rather than anything real.
If Ireland wants to pick itself up it can!
If Ireland really wanted to pay off all its debts and not default then it could as well!
The only things that Ireland really needs money for is imports such as oil, gas, steel (maybe), blah blah blah....... One way or another Ireland will get these commodities, in a defaulted state or not.
Things such as education, health care, public services mainly depend on how determined Irish people are to make them work.

Tora Bora

cgarrad wrote: »

Wow this is bad, Gartman and Roubini both predict the end of the euro...

We have not seen anything yet if the euro collapses, every multi national will leave over night, we will still be bankrupt with no one to bail us out with continuing payments, bond markets want 11.4% at the moment (post collapse=???) and our debts will still be denominated in euro even though the punt will probably be worth 0.35-0.45 of the euro.

Serious end game stuff. Pay down your debts, open CHF bank account or prepare to leave....

Gartman:
http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/interviews/2791-dennis-gartman-long-gold-short-euros-with-eyes-on-irrational-corn.html

Roubini:
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/06/roubini-debt-restructuring-is-coming.html

Forewarned is forearmed.

So all multinationals will up and run if euro collapses.

I work for one of many different mnc's who merrily existed here, before the euro was born. So it would simply be back to the future.

bbam

mad m wrote: »

Can someone answer this for me, if the euro does go, what happens to savings in euro? If I had a few bob saved would I be better off putting it off my mortage?

Surely our debts would only be worth a few cents in the euro also??
I'd say at that stage you could ring the bank and tell them the game's up on the mortgage, If you have some money put by (even at €0.35) the banks will be mad to get it, might be able to kill the mortgage with a few €'s then..

Inverse to the power of one!

Justin1982 wrote: »

Fair point These are all major problems in Irish society.
I'll try and be optimistic though :P

I tried that once :eek:

Justin1982 wrote: »

I still think that money is a state of mind rather than anything real.
If Ireland wants to pick itself up it can!
If Ireland really wanted to pay off all its debts and not default then it could as well!

And to be honest, as pissed off as I am at it all, I don't want us carrying on with our past insecurity crap. We are effective when confident, but our other shortfall's bring us down.

Justin1982 wrote: »

The only things that Ireland really needs money for is imports such as oil, gas, steel (maybe), blah blah blah....... One way or another Ireland will get these commodities, in a defaulted state or not.

Careful, you are right in that the state is essentially immortal, but although a default may not starve us, it would only drag our society backwards, more, unemployment, more crime, more corruption, more me fein-ism. True we have survived in the past on less, but our history show's no rosier an existence back then either.

Justin1982 wrote: »

Things such as education, health care, public services mainly depend on how determined Irish people are to make them work personally profitable.

Tea drinker

The multi nationals won't leave if the Euro collapses - why would they?
They were here in Europe long before the stupid Euro. Ericsson is here since 1950 or so? After that loads of other tech companies came and worked in Punts without feeling the need to commit Hari Kari just because there was no single currency. Companies want to sell stuff and make money - nothing else matters. As long as we can facilitate this and there is a market for it - life goes on.

Otherwise start buying seeds and collecting bird guano.

cgarrad

Tora Bora wrote: »

So all multinationals will up and run if euro collapses.

I work for one of many different mnc's who merrily existed here, before the euro was born. So it would simply be back to the future.

Tea drinker wrote: »

The multi nationals won't leave if the Euro collapses - why would they?
They were here in Europe long before the stupid Euro. Ericsson is here since 1950 or so? After that loads of other tech companies came and worked in Punts without feeling the need to commit Hari Kari just because there was no single currency. Companies want to sell stuff and make money - nothing else matters. As long as we can facilitate this and there is a market for it - life goes on.

Otherwise start buying seeds and collecting bird guano.

Before the euro we had price stability and a government who did not have to make unpredictable decisions.

If we loose the euro the state is unfunded, the currency is near worthless and the tax code will change rapidly. Not ideal conditions for any business.

Trust me they will leave.

This is not an argument its warning what will lightly happen. Make preparations and we will all be fine

tweedledee

Multinationals wont go anywhere,they know Irish Gov will look after em no matter what.
Euro crash wont make much of a difference to Ireland but it will tear the bejaysus outa Germany and France,thats why they are soooo protective of the yoyo.
guys study yer history,Argentina and Singapore had very horrific monetary problems,it woke up both populations and they sorted their act out and both now are in excellent shape financially.
If a pro Euro polititian (thats our entire present cabinet)tells you its the end of the world if we ignore Europe then pretty much the opposite is true,they are self serving,never forget that.
Every major decision they have made in the last 2 years has been for the benefit of the British/Germans and French NOT Ireland.
Our biggest problem is not the YOYO its corruption and all those other things mentioned by Inverse,he/she is spot on.

Tea drinker

cgarrad wrote: »

Before the euro we had price stability and a government who did not have to make unpredictable decisions.

Aye, but if Euro collapses it will be the same for everyone aka a new (actually old) market and the MNC's will do what they always do make and sell as much crap as people can buy. Potentially that will be very little due to lack of confidence... but all Europe will be in the same boat.




*adds shotgun shells and tinned beans to list of shopping...

Justin1982

Inverse to the power of one! wrote: »

I tried that once :eek:


And to be honest, as pissed off as I am at it all, I don't want us carrying on with our past insecurity crap. We are effective when confident, but our other shortfall's bring us down.



Careful, you are right in that the state is essentially immortal, but although a default may not starve us, it would only drag our society backwards, more, unemployment, more crime, more corruption, more me fein-ism. True we have survived in the past on less, but our history show's no rosier an existence back then either.

I actually agree with what your saying
I know that the reality is that country will just panic and go to **** in default situation in many ways.
I was just saying that if we werent such a bunch of donkeys and didnt panic in a default situation then we could make a good fresh start.

I havent seen enough convincing complete figures from anyone yet to suggest that we will either default eventually or actually claw our way out of this mess over a period of a few years.

I do understand that default will be a disaster for this country. Possibly a large panic driven recession/depression for 2 years??? with poverty, emigration, misery and unemployment going to larger and unpredicatable levels??? before a slow recovery kicks in????

I do understand that this bailout is crap for the country, we may not be able to afford it and the bankers/politicians will be getting off scot free on the other hand.

I'm neither pro or anti bailout/default. I am not educated enough to make that decision. I will only form a decision when someone shows me a spreadsheet detailing exact figures for best case, most probable case and worst case scenarios for bailout scenario and default/rebuild scenario. Noone has really produced something like that and made it available to the public that I can find (although I havent looked tremendously hard )

My stance is this though.....The measures taken so far by Irish governments have been fair enough in my mind (yeah they made mistakes along the way) and I think that we should give the bailout option a chance to work. If we can return to positive long term growth while repaying the bailout then it has essentially worked. However bad the country is at the moment, it isnt as bad as it will be in a default situation.
If we discover that the game is up at some stage and we cant return to positive growth or repay the bailout then we can default to our hearts content and roll around in the muck like the chancers we are

lmimmfn

if it did happen multinationals would be more inclined to stay because our currency would be worth feck all internationally and therefore our man hour cost per hour would be extremely low relative to other countries. Bang for buck as they say.

newmug

I think a lot of people are missing the point here. Its not whether or not Ireland will default, its whether Greece will default and subsequently cause the collapse of the Euro. The question was, A) what will happen next, will all the countries just start using their old currencies, and what would happen to your savings, how can we protect them?

Prakari

All depends on whether the markets take out Spain. Methinks there's alot of problems in Spain yet to be revealed. If this does happen though, there's a chance the Euro project could be saved if a printing press for states is established (e.g. like the Fed in the U.S.). The downside of this plan is that it will weaken the purchasing power of the Euro and the German's may pull out to establish a much stronger national currency (especially relevant if oil prices keep rising). It would be somewhat similar to the Chinese de-pegging from the dollar to deal with their rising inflation.

tweedledee

Totally agree with you,thats what will happen,"Europeans" will get a Euro version of FED RESERVE,a bank that has all the big players in its pocket and they will get special permission to print money and the family that owns the Fed Res will have achieved what they always wanted.
Ireland will continue to bail out German,British and French private banks until the Euro implodes.Irish gov,spineless pigs will continue to support Germany and screw Ireland.
What a great country Ireland is.............

HellFireClub

Here we go again with "the multinationals"... MNC's employ directly around 100K people in this state. We have lost approximately 5 times that number of jobs since 2007 and the people who had those jobs have either emmigrated and left the country or are else now dependant on the state for social welfare payments to survive, but people just don't seem to be able to stop rabbiting on about the precious MNC's...

This is the classic example of what is known as "boiling frog" syndrome.

RichardAnd

HellFireClub wrote: »

Here we go again with "the multinationals"... MNC's employ directly around 100K people in this state. We have lost approximately 5 times that number of jobs since 2007 and the people who had those jobs have either emmigrated and left the country or are else now dependant on the state for social welfare payments to survive, but people just don't seem to be able to stop rabbiting on about the precious MNC's...

This is the classic example of what is known as "boiling frog" syndrome.

Ture but it's not as simple as that. As you say, there are 100k people directly employed by MNC's here but how many have jobs indirectly through those big companies? Further still, 100k jobs lost (an extreme view, granted) would have serious knock on affects through-out the economy.

dan_d

Prakari wrote: »

All depends on whether the markets take out Spain. Methinks there's alot of problems in Spain yet to be revealed. If this does happen though, there's a chance the Euro project could be saved if a printing press for states is established (e.g. like the Fed in the U.S.). The downside of this plan is that it will weaken the purchasing power of the Euro and the German's may pull out to establish a much stronger national currency (especially relevant if oil prices keep rising). It would be somewhat similar to the Chinese de-pegging from the dollar to deal with their rising inflation.

Do you think? By today's headlines, the Greeks seem to be the serious fly in the ointment.By the sounds of things, their debt is simply too much for them.They're being bailed out a second time and they just don't seem to have either the inclination or the power to affect the necessary changes to try and reign in whatever they're doing (I'm not going to say reign in their spending, because I think there's an awful lot more than over-spending going on there)

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0615/greece.html

I appreciate that it could be argued that every country's debt is too much for them in some way or another, but I suppose the difference for us is that we are trying to reduce our deficit, and we have made some headway. The huge quantity of money required for bailing out banks is another story. However I think (although I complain a lot) I'd rather be sitting here looking at our Government's efforts than sitting in Greece and looking at a situation whereby the Gov can't even make a decision, let alone implement it alongside the entire country repeatedly grinding to a halt. It seems to me that the Greeks are hurting themselves more than anybody else.

Zubeneschamali

dan_d wrote: »

Do you think?

The difference is that Greece is small potatoes. The Germans could carry Greece indefinitely if they felt like doing it.

Spain is a big economy, with a real chance of taking the whole system down if it goes.

dan_d

A fair point.

But it would appear that the focus of the markets is off Spain at the moment, therefore meaning that they should be ok - if that makes sense. Previously, while countries have had serious money problems, the thing that seemed to really push them to a bailout is the behaviour of the markets. So far they seem to be relatively calm about Spain. I know this could change any day, but if it continues, Spain should be ok. And I also know the word "calm" is relative to a lot of things.....

Asides from anything else, Greece seems to be deflecting everyone's attention from anything else.

meditraitor

Scofflaw wrote: »

It's worth reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb a bit, and considering his points, and the point made by others that the predictive success of analysts neatly follows a statistical pattern that indicates pure chance - that is, an analyst isn't "only as good as his last prediction", but that rather there's no correlation at all.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Strangely enough this chap was recommended to me in real life only last week, might have to rethink my self imposed ban on readin any more modern philosophy:cool:

Justin1982

newmug wrote: »

I think a lot of people are missing the point here. Its not whether or not Ireland will default, its whether Greece will default and subsequently cause the collapse of the Euro. The question was, A) what will happen next, will all the countries just start using their old currencies, and what would happen to your savings, how can we protect them?

To a point that is correct. Even if we have a fighting chance of being able to afford the bailout and return to growth currently, our main problem at the moment is Greece.

Those Greek boys are the real jokers in the pack! Should they do a bad ass default then we will probably get caught in the resultant after shocks.
It does look like the Germans and French will hammer out some sort of second bailout deal though for Greece. Will they be able to afford it though or is it just kicking the default can down the road?

You really have to hope that these ECB, EU and IMF representitives actually know what they are doing. I mean like are they just bull****ting or are they sure that Greece can afford the bailout and that things will actually start to improve after the second bailout?
I just have an image of these lads in Zurich having negotiations and strategy talks something like Father Ted trying to explain near vs faraway using a toy cow to Father Dougal.
It all just seems so makey uppy as we go alongy the last two years :eek:

The non-PIIG countries really do have to stand by the PIIG's though. Their own faith is very much wrapped up with ours. So much of their money is locked up in bailouts of different kinds to PIIG countries. Even countries like UK and Switzerland are quiet correlated to the rest of Europe.

Its some mess though! How the hell did they let it get this bad?