Golf - US Open 2011

The_Kew_Tour

Ok so what many consider to be the toughest major to win starts this Thursday.

Its a very wide open event and many in with chances and dont be surprised to see an outsider win this one.

So far I have only backed Stricker at 28 on BF. I also like the look of KJ and Woodland.

Of the outsiders I like the price of Edfors and Noren on BF..

I think there is case for the top 5 in market but I think their prices are correct.

Dr.Silly

I think Villegas is a great price Kew Tour considering he's coming into some form.

The_Kew_Tour

Dr.Silly wrote: »

I think Villegas is a great price Kew Tour considering he's coming into some form.

Ya he one in my shorlist to be honest you could back 20 golfers in this and get nothing back. It's a really hard one to call.

I am fan of Phil but I dont think he will win this one. My plan is more likely to back 6-7 golfers and do few top 10 finishes also.

Dr.Silly

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Ya he one in my shorlist to be honest you could back 20 golfers in this and get nothing back. It's a really hard one to call.

I am fan of Phil but I dont think he will win this one. My plan is more likely to back 6-7 golfers and do few top 10 finishes also.

Don't think Phil, Westwood, or Donald will be involved come Sunday to be honest.

I wonder what the odds are for Harrington to MISS the cut, anyone know ?

The_Kew_Tour

Dr.Silly wrote: »

Don't think Phil, Westwood, or Donald will be involved come Sunday to be honest.

I wonder what the odds are for Harrington to MISS the cut, anyone know ?

Tried Paddy, Bet365 and BF for ya about the cut market but nothing up I say be later today or more likely tomorrow before they are up

Dr.Silly

Cheers,

Just off the phone to Boyles.

6/4 for Harry to miss the cut,
fantastic price if you ask me !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The_Kew_Tour

Dr.Silly wrote: »

Cheers,

Just off the phone to Boyles.

6/4 for Harry to miss the cut,
fantastic price if you ask me !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anything odds against is value to me think its good price tbf..

I am big Harrington fan and would love to see him win it but his form is very poor.

Vurnon San Benito

Dare I say it: Rory McIlroy @ 16/1 or 22.0 on BF :pac:

Seen something on his Twitter a few days ago saying how these fairways , and tees offs will suit him down to the ground.

Could be a trading opportunity me thinks.

Nuri Sahin

Stricker has course form going back to the US Open in 97 where he finished 2nd. He's my main pick. I'll choose the other 3 later on today or tomorrow.

The_Kew_Tour

I should be working but instead studying the form for the golf:p.

Anyway one guy that stands out at big price is Jason Dufner. He has yet to win but has been in top 10 in the last three of his last four finishes. He was tied 6th at players and 5th at PGA last year so he may be massive price at matching 289/1 on BF..

I am also thinking that Jerry Kelly may be worth punt at 599/1 on BF with looking to lay him off. He has tendency to start tournaments well also.

premierstone

McIllroy, Stricker and Baddeley so far for me. That Harrington bet @6/4 is very tempting I must say.

ValueSeeker

Aaron Baddeley 80/1 rates this course as 1 of his favourites. He has sorted out his driving this year so far and is back to where he was a few years ago. Should be available on Betfair @ triple figure odds come tomorrow afternoon. Superb putter, especially on fast greens and they should be running very quickly this week. One to watch for me.

Hunter Mahan 25/1 has a good US Open record. Hardly surprising given his tee to green game and the way the US Open sets up with serious penalties for missing fairways and greens. Working on the mental side of his game this year and for me a future major winner and the US Open would be his best chance for me. Right up there in the total driving stat and this is key for me this week for Mahan.

Full Picks on site for anyone interested.

I think the winner come Sunday night will be a big name. Watch out for Paul Casey at huge odds. Not in form but very much overpriced for me.

Fursttimer

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Anyway one guy that stands out at big price is Jason Dufner

I've done Dufner also.

He's not the best putter around but the rest of his game is in such great shape he's hard oppose at the huge odds.

ValueSeeker

It's also interesting that the 3 Italians are set to play together - Molinari brothers and Manassero. That will take a lot of the tension out of it for them and while I don't really fancy Francesco because of his putting (on these fast greens) and Manassero because of his inexperience, Edoardo Molinari @ 200 on Betfair is certainly catching my eye, with a view to trading obviously.

Just another bit of info for you about the course. BVP mentioned recently that those with a high ball flight will benefit hugely. He was referring to approach shots and obviously the longer you can drive it, the better.

Fursttimer

My selections

A Baddeley, N Watney, G Ogilvy, B Snedeker, J Dufner & B Haas

Best of luck, looking forward to it

ValueSeeker

For the E/W backers, backing Stricker, Kuchar and Mahan should give you a run for your money. 1 of them to place will return you your E/W level stakes and a little extra. KJ Choi is another recent previous winner at Congressional (AT&T - pipping Stricker) and has the perfect game for the course. I'm iffy about his current form and state of mind though. He's been relaxing a bit since his big win. Robert Karlsson, after a superb performance on a tough and not overly dissimilar golf course set up last week is also great value.

Don't forget about the ST. Omer Open where there will no doubt be some big value with all eyes on America. Keep an eye on my FB/Twitter updates for the value men tomorrow.

Good luck everyone, should be an exciting week.

irishgunner1

its a bit like the grand national really with so many fancys,prob have a bet on mcillroy,johnson,choi and phil.prob do a few more each way

albert kidd

its nearly upon us at long last:)

have been backing players for this for a few weeks and some players since the masters was on.

kj choi..due a major and imo has the patience/discipline required for the us open @75/1.

adam scott @75/1

peter hanson @ 200


kuchar @ 55..have big hopes for kuchar..himself and choi are who i think will go close.

[email]kaymer@36..hoping[/email] the us open can bring the best back out in him..another who may well have the discipline to go around here and bide his time.

quiros @110..more so a trade.

good luck lads.

The_Kew_Tour

irishgunner1 wrote: »

its a bit like the grand national really with so many fancys,prob have a bet on mcillroy,johnson,choi and phil.prob do a few more each way

You hit the nail in head there. I think no matter who wins this unless its complete outsider we will all think that we could have backed that winner, if we did not do so.

I am going to do few Top 10 bets so even few winners on this I be happy. I will post them tomorrow after further review.

Saganist

Oosthuizen @ 200/1

&

Manserro @ 70/1

Both e/w

irishgunner1

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

You hit the nail in head there. I think no matter who wins this unless its complete outsider we will all think that we could have backed that winner, if we did not do so.

I am going to do few Top 10 bets so even few winners on this I be happy. I will post them tomorrow after further review.

yeah gonna wait myself and see how ascot goes before i back anyone in the golf,dont want to go too mad with the golf tho i end up backing a stupid amount of golfers in the majors

shaggykev

Really like Anthony Kim each way at 110/1 with bet365.
Plays well at Congressional

Spotted Jason Dufner but most bookies hadn't him priced up in morning. He got in as a reserve so another magical story if he wins

Normally back Mickelson for Majors but he'd break your heart at the US Open and not sure he'll suit course. Prefer Donald & Kaymer near top of market

Anyone give Watney a chance

I see Bar One Racing & John Mulhollands are going 7 places. Any others ?

jive

Mahan top5 @ 7.4

Dustin Johnson @ 28.0

Baddeley @ 9.0

Tempted by McIlroy at 23.0 but I'd be happy to see him win regardless of having money on him or not so I'll just root for him but have no money on

albert kidd

ValueSeeker wrote: »

For the E/W backers, backing Stricker, Kuchar and Mahan should give you a run for your money. 1 of them to place will return you your E/W level stakes and a little extra. KJ Choi is another recent previous winner at Congressional (AT&T - pipping Stricker) and has the perfect game for the course. I'm iffy about his current form and state of mind though. He's been relaxing a bit since his big win. Robert Karlsson, after a superb performance on a tough and not overly dissimilar golf course set up last week is also great value.

Don't forget about the ST. Omer Open where there will no doubt be some big value with all eyes on America. Keep an eye on my FB/Twitter updates for the value men tomorrow.

Good luck everyone, should be an exciting week.

karlsson hardly merits "a superb performance" after the weekend imo..5 or 6 shot lead at one stage on saturday night only to fall apart big style.

40 odd holes he was superb granted..

PEACEBROTHER

Just off the back of a nice win on Harrison Frazar ( see after timing thread )


Gary Woodland 10 e/w
Arron Baddeley 10 e/w
Johan Edfors 10 e/w
Harrison Frazar 5 e/w

70e spent .


Thats enough to give back to them Im gonna withdraw rest .
Good Luck all should be a cracker of a weekend

frat

I read a fact recently that 18 of the last 20 US Open winners have come from the top 20 in the betting, so I know where I'll be looking in the market, won't be backing any outsiders in this one for sure.

I like to back a good few in the majors but think I'll keep it simple this time. Will be doing a large single on Donald who is by far the best player in the world at the moment and is one of the best around the greens which will be needed around here. Will also be having a smaller e/w bet on Watson and McIlroy first round leader

ValueSeeker

Definitely. The US Open takes a particular type of player to win, being such a tough test. If you look at the top 10 of the leaderboards down the years, they are packed with the big names. The cream usually rises to the top and I'll be very surprised if a big outsider goes all the way. It's not like the other majors for me. Weather(wind) is expected to play no part either.

Oneywu

Wouldn't be an expert on golf but put a few small stakes on:

Goosen (EW) @ 60/1
Dufner (EW) @ 150/1
Baddely (EW) @ 66/1

ValueSeeker

Some tweets from the course lads:

You can follow me where I'll be retweeting the important 1's on my twitter over the next 2 days. Great info to be armed with before selecting

Copy and paste job, excuse the mess!

PaulAzinger
At US Open. It hasn't rained on course in at least 3 weeks. Intermediate cut of rough is 5yd wide, dry and manageable. Rock hard greens tho
15 hours ago Favorite Undo Retweet Reply »

PaulAzinger
This is not a layup off the tee golf course. Driver off almost every hole. Big hitters will like it here.
15 hours ago Favorite Undo Retweet Reply »

Graeme_McDowell
Just played 18 holes at Congressional. Course much firmer and faster than last time I was here. Really enjoyed it. Great test of golf.

The_Kew_Tour

frat wrote: »

I read a fact recently that 18 of the last 20 US Open winners have come from the top 20 in the betting, so I know where I'll be looking in the market, won't be backing any outsiders in this one for sure.

I like to back a good few in the majors but think I'll keep it simple this time. Will be doing a large single on Donald who is by far the best player in the world at the moment and is one of the best around the greens which will be needed around here. Will also be having a smaller e/w bet on Watson and McIlroy first round leader

That interesting I take it it was Campbell and Glover were the two outsiders.

I will take it into account stats dont lie on thing like this.

Fursttimer

shaggykev wrote: »

Anyone give Watney a chance

Along with Geoff Ogilvy, Nick Watney is my main pick.

I really, really, really, fancy his chances this week. Fantastic driver and his accuracy has improved off the tee too. The best ball striker for me on the PGA Tour and fast becoming one of the best putters, especially on fast undulating greens. There is one chink in is armour tough. Like Hunter Mahan, he is poor out of the greenside bunkers, but such is his fantastic ball-striking, he may not encounter many of them.

Negatives for me are Luke Donald, Rory McIlroy, Hunter Mahan & David Toms.

Fursttimer

Some extra bets for me:

Top Amateur:

Patrick Cantlay 7/1 *Next Best*

Top European:

Lee Westwood 4/1

Justin Rose 30/1

Fredrik Jacobson 50/1

Top American:

Matt Kuchar 16/1

Nick Watney 16/1

Top Australian:

Geoff Ogilvy 6/1

Aaron Baddeley 7/1

Top 10 Finish:

Geoff Ogilvy 8/1 *Best Bet*

Vurnon San Benito

So nobody fancies Rory? :pac:

The_Kew_Tour

Doocey wrote: »

So nobody fancies Rory? :pac:

He be good bet if it was finished on the Saturday:pac:

Seriously, I give him a chance but I think its type of course where you have to have patience and wait for you chance, I think Rory may not be in that frame this weekend, but hey come Sunday who knows.

This is such a open contest.

Juwwi

Fursttimer wrote: »

Negatives for me are Luke Donald, Rory McIlroy,Hunter Mahan & David toms.

Just out of curiosity why are they both negatives l was gona back Toms myself ?


Was also looking at KJ Choi

jjll

i think westwood will miss cut dont know why but i will take the 5-1 he misses it and also rory to miss it at 7-2 westwood struggling with putting last week and rory well will be up there or miss it completely and johnson to win fairways firm and fast he hits it miles

ValueSeeker

robbie1977 wrote: »

Just out of curiosity why are they both negatives l was gona back Toms myself ?


Was also looking at KJ Choi

Golfers tend to go on streaks and then go missing for a while. Toms missed the cut last week after a fantastic run of golf which may signal the start of a quiet period. His lack of distance off the tee will have him at a disadvantage. He's a negative for me this week as well.

Mahan for me though ticks all the right boxes. He is also the course record holder at Congressional.

But then golf is golf!

Fursttimer

robbie1977 wrote: »

Just out of curiosity why are they both negatives l was gona back Toms myself ?

A lot of people are jumping on the AT&T National formbook for clues to the U.S. Open, if that's the case then Hunter Mahan is the pick but I am totally ignoring all previous form at Congressional. Why? Well this course will play much longer, the rough much thicker and the greens faster.

During the at&t the course played much, much softer. Those players will never have experienced a renovated Congressional like it will play this week.

So, best to ignore all previous course form.

With regards to Mahan, he putts his best on these greens BUT he's poor out of the rough and especially the greenside bunkers. These greenside bunkers will be the toughest these players will ever have faced. If it wasn't for that, I'd be punting him.

Unfortunately for short-hitting David Toms, rain is forecast for the event, making the course play even longer. He could struggle to get himself into contention.

Like Mahan, McIlroy putts best on these type of greens so his putting shouldn't struggle too much but I don't like his mentality so for that reason I'd oppose him, just!

One player who could really spring a surprise is Webb Simpson. I would urge everyone to get a small wager on him at 160's.

Fursttimer

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Mahan for me though ticks all the right boxes. He is also the course record holder at Congressional

Joint with Anthony Kim

Fursttimer

Regular golf viewers will (should) understand the stimpmeter. It measure the speed of the putting green.

The European Tour generally runs between 10 to 11.5. The PGA Tour usually 12 sometimes as high as 13-13.5 (Augusta National)

Congressional will run at 14-14.5! :eek:

The_Kew_Tour

Fursttimer wrote: »

Regular golf viewers will (should) understand the stimpmeter. It measure the speed of the putting green.

The European Tour generally runs between 10 to 11.5. The PGA Tour usually 12 sometimes as high as 13-13.5 (Augusta National)

Congressional will run at 14-14.5! :eek:

You cant have enough:eek: for this


Right I have done my bets and here they are

All to win and all Betfair prices.
These are my main five
Mahan 28
Kuchar 28
Stricker 28
KJ 36
Furyk 65

The my middle players are
Baddeley 95
Bo Van Pelt 110
Woodland 120

My wild outside bet is
Dufner 310

My Top 10 finishes
Els 9.6
Edfors 20
Oothuizen 17
Noren 16
Wilson 14.5
Quiros 9.4

So that's 15 golfers backed do ye think I have enough;):pac::pac:

I do plan to lay off some of these hopefully for profit and hope my big players can get off to good start.

I backed Furyk in the end because he has finished second twice since 2006 and that has to count for something.

I am also thinking about putting a bet on winning score being under -4 what ye reckon?

Edit Just did Villegas for Top 10 now, right thats it ha

frat

Fursttimer wrote: »

Along with Geoff Ogilvy, Nick Watney is my main pick.

I really, really, really, fancy his chances this week. Fantastic driver and his accuracy has improved off the tee too. The best ball striker for me on the PGA Tour and fast becoming one of the best putters, especially on fast undulating greens. There is one chink in is armour tough. Like Hunter Mahan, he is poor out of the greenside bunkers, but such is his fantastic ball-striking, he may not encounter many of them.

Negatives for me are Luke Donald, Rory McIlroy, Hunter Mahan & David Toms.

Why is Donald a negative for you?

Number 1 in the world, 8 top 10s from 9 starts in the States, top in scoring average, top 10 in the scrambling/putting/proximity to hole stats.

Its a long course (same length for everyone) but he has coped well on similar courses recently.

I do like Watney for this as well, just not convinced about his bottle coming down the stretch!

The_Kew_Tour

For anyone interested here racing post tips

Tips are in the order they fancy them so Mahan is their fav

Steve Palmer tips are
H Mahan
B Snedeker
S Cink
G Woodland
J Dufner
D Love

J Chapman tips are
H Mahan
M Kuchar
D Johnson
L Westwood
R Goosen

Fursttimer

frat wrote: »

Why is Donald a negative for you?

50% chance of rain for the first two rounds which will make the course play even longer. Clearly it's longer for everyone but for those shorter hitters it means much longer approach shots with long irons/hybrids which are much more difficult to control. Donald has the scrambling ability to minimise damage scoring wise but his odds are simply too short for me to get involved. I'd much rather have Mickelson at the same odds.

Nuri Sahin

My final picks -

Mahan
KJ
Watson
Day
Palmer

Degag

Have done a few small e/ws on

Quiros
Poulter
Fowler
Laird
Crane
Dufner
Simpson

Going to pick one from Phil, Kuchar, Mahan or Watney as my main bet. Still thinking but Watney is seriously tempting me.

The_Kew_Tour

Just wish everyone the very best of luck with yer selections for Open tomorrow. I am off Monday and will be going out clubbing after the Golf so I hope to have a my drinking money coming from my bets.;)

heavyballs

main bet as previously mentioned is Donald at prices ranging from 25's-16-1.
Next is Ryan Moore @100/1

and a few likely one's
Bill Hass @110
Chad Campbell @225
Scott Piercy @450/1

Fursttimer

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Just wish everyone the very best of luck with yer selections for Open tomorrow. I am off Monday and will be going out clubbing after the Golf so I hope to have a my drinking money coming from my bets.;)

You too, cheers.

Fursttimer

I've withdrawn 3 selections from my initial post (page 1). I've decided against them and selected others.

Paul Casey 75's, Bubba Watson 48's & Sergio Garcia 75's

iggy

Looking forward to watching this. Have done the following bets

All PP ( 6 places)

Main bets - all e/w
Stricker - 22/1
Watney- 30/1
Donald- 14/1
Adam Scott- 60/1
Kuchar- 25/1
Snedeker- 60/1

Small e/w bets outsiders
Kevin Na- 200/1
Bud Cauley- 500/1

Best of luck everyone, hope a few of us make some cash:-)