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The 2011 Hurricane season

  • 06-06-2011 10:19pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 TheInquisitor


    I know its still ridiculously early but we may have our first tropical depression of the season within the next 24 hours. 50% chance at the moment

    hurricaneseason1.gif
    1. A large low pressure system located over the northwestern caribbean sea about 90 miles south-southwest of grand cayman is moving slowly toward the northwest. This system is gradually becoming better organized and thunderstorm activity has developed closer to the surface center. Some additional development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form later tonight or Tuesday before upper-level winds become unfavorable. There is a medium chance, 50 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. An Air Force reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause flash floods and mud slides over portions of Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba as the system moves slowly toward the northwest or north over the next couple of days.
    http://www.stormpulse.com/

    So what do people think the current season will hold for us? Last year there were loads of hurricanes but most were directed up into the Atlantic rather than into the gulf of Mexico. This year predictions are the opposite. Loads of big impact hurricanes going straight into the Gulf where they mushroom in size and often under go extreme development due to the very warm waters.

    http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110519_atlantichurricaneoutlook.html

    I hate to use Wikipedia but they have amassed all the forecasts into an easily comparable and readable format...

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Atlantic_hurricane_season


Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,770 ✭✭✭ up for anything


    Big Think
    J DEMING on June 21, 2011, 12:50 PM

    The June 19th and 21st Earth Observatory images of Nabro got me thinking the Atlantic hurricane season again. This eruption came just around the time of the monsoonal wind shift, which I think is why there were two very different plume directions, Russia bound at first and now more westward and southwestward. I’m trying to find out from hobbyists who know more about meteorology than I do just what effect that enormous amount of SO2 may have on tropical wave formation in northwestern Africa, and about the possibility of a bit of sea surface cooling if it gets over the ocean for any length of time. The strongest Cape Verde tropical cyclones come from that area, and those can track right into the Gulf and head to Texas (which right now could use the rain).

    Will pass along word if I hear anything from knowledgeable persons. This might be a very slow Atlantic hurricane season this year.

    Saw this and thought it might of be interest to hurricane lovers.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭ roryc1


    Was thing about this too, between low solar activity and all these volcano's going off it could be a very quite season


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 TheInquisitor


    The first one was a dud. This one looks like its guaranteed to become the first Atlantic depression this season. The pacific has already had 2 hurricanes!

    http://www.stormpulse.com/atlantic

    90% chance of becoming tropical depression so far
    1. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
    THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WAS ABLE TO
    LOCATE A LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO
    DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.
    UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
    DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
    DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
    THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
    IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE
    EAST COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ
    SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL
    STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT
    OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
    CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

    ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 maquiladora


    Indeed, a slow start to the season this year.

    294hto4.gif

    Hope we have some interesting stuff to follow over the coming months!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,210 ✭✭✭ dexter647


    Early days yet i'm sure but yea lets hope it pick up soon:)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 maquiladora


    Tropical Storm ARLENE

    023613W5_NL_sm.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 maquiladora


    Four Invests in the Atlantic.

    s2f9rq.jpg

    93L looking the most interesting :

    14mxdgw.gif

    Looks like we'll be back to following the tropics next week.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,210 ✭✭✭ dexter647


    Yea seen that earlier all right.. exciting times ahead as the atlantic is finally beginning to awaken:)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,244 thetonynator


    Been quiet for a while since Emily dissipated dramatically there . . .unusually quiet for August really!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,277 ✭✭✭ snowstreams


    Looks like harvey might form and then dissapear as quickly as he formed!
    This has to be the latest date for a hurricane not to have formed yet?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 maquiladora


    97L looking interesting.

    06Z GFS has it as a hurricane hitting northwest Florida after crossing Cuba.

    2lnh8w0.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 maquiladora


    Looks like we could have IRENE very soon. She could end up being a monster. Very interesting days ahead...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,244 thetonynator


    Looks like we could have IRENE very soon. She could end up being a monster. Very interesting days ahead...

    Or she could end up being a damp squib like the rest of them . .. :P


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 619 Pilotdude5


    Looks like we could have IRENE very soon. She could end up being a monster. Very interesting days ahead...

    I certainly hope not as I'm doing some flying training in florida from next Wednesday for 10 days:eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,388 ✭✭✭✭ dsmythy


    Tropical Storm Irene is born.



    tsirene.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,210 ✭✭✭ dexter647


    dsmythy wrote: »
    Tropical Storm Irene is born.

    ...And looks head on for florida. Will be interesting to see how she develops,strenght wise, over the coming days... Def one to watch


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 TheInquisitor


    Just as an FYI for people. We are 3 weeks ahead compared to last year with names storms. We didn't make it to L until the 23rd September last year. Only thing is there were many more hurricanes last year compared to this year!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,388 gbee


    Absolutely.

    from http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-lisa-2010

    173118.jpg

    A screen grab :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,134 maquiladora


    This could be an interesting one...

    at201195_model.gif


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,388 ✭✭✭✭ dsmythy


    And so we near another season's end.



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