Is Ireland hoping Greece Default on their Bailout

WIZE

Is Ireland hoping Greece Default to see what happens to a defaulting Country

If Greece do default could this help Ireland negotiate the terms of our Bailout as ECB/IMF will not want us to default

squod

Can't see it having much impact. FG/FF obviously know more than they let on.

Guill

Yep, here's hoping!

Frank Black

Yep, but it's nothing personal.

biko

From AH

hinault

WIZE wrote: »

Is Ireland hoping Greece Default to see what happens to a defaulting Country

If Greece do default could this help Ireland negotiate the terms of our Bailout as ECB/IMF will not want us to default

It's probably more accurate to say that the Irish government hope that Ireland is not the EZ country to default.

Sand

On one hand, no:

So long as Greece doesnt default, the ECB and EU are still scrambling around frantically trying to keep all the dishes in the air. If Irish politicians were actually to check in their pants and locate some spherical objects they have a negotiating position where they demand some payback for not sabotaging the ECB/EU's frantic efforts. Once Greece defaults, that bargaining chip is gone as the dishes are already shattered in pieces all across the floor.

On the other hand, yes:

Once Greek defaults, and the seas dont rise up and drown it, or the Germans dont immediately invade, a lot of the hysterical scaremongering thats been going around will be eliminated. There will however be a lot of short term mayhem, during which even leadership as awful as Ireland might grasp its a good time to put out some bad news and hide in the mayhem.

ilovesleep

I'm hoping spain will down quick

paddy0090

ilovesleep wrote: »

I'm hoping spain will down quick

I'm less certain that this will happen than I was. Spain seems to have drifted out of the picture. The yield is holding steady and it doesn't get mentioned as much as it once did. Also given that it is a larger economy it's capable of carrying a larger debt burden than a small one.

While I'm still suspicious about losses being hidden in spanish banks even if many of the regional banks(cajas) have been merged. The chinese have already indicated that they won't allow Spain to become a target by buying Spanish bonds.

As I recall there was some speculation that it had to do with the US/EU embargo on selling arms to China but I think it's actions are more inline with that of Timothy Geithners for the US. It's not in their long term interest to see Spain fall over. This would trigger a PIGS wide restructuring of debt. Which may not directly involve China but could have implications for the interests of Chinese banks across the Globe.

That said a Greek default, or the threst of, could prompt some form of resolution to the crisis by putting Spain back in the picture.

So long as Greece doesnt default, the ECB and EU are still scrambling around frantically trying to keep all the dishes in the air. If Irish politicians were actually to check in their pants and locate some spherical objects they have a negotiating position where they demand some payback for not sabotaging the ECB/EU's frantic efforts. Once Greece defaults, that bargaining chip is gone as the dishes are already shattered in pieces all across the floor.

They aren't working together on this anymore. It's become a case of 'You do it', 'No you do it', repeat....

later12

It's quite obvious (although I am always a bit wary of people who utter these famous last words) that Ireland is taking a wait-and-see approach to Greece. This time I think it stands up to logic. We are not threatening a restructuring because we want to see what happens in Greece first, and how their (inevitable) restructuring transpires. Pre-empting it doesn't seem to make much sense at this moment. I don't see any merit in jumping in before the Greeks - contrary to popular myth, investors are not teenage girls, they do not swoon over exuberant displays of testosterone.

Sand

contrary to popular myth, investors are not teenage girls, they do not swoon over exuberant displays of testosterone.

True, so far theyve been unimpressed by Irish attempts to brag "Yeah, I can manage any level of debt. Any level. 250 billion? BRING. IT. ON."

ei.sdraob

later10 wrote: »

contrary to popular myth, investors are not teenage girls, they do not swoon over exuberant displays of testosterone.

hmm

later12

Sand wrote: »

True, so far theyve been unimpressed by Irish attempts to brag "Yeah, I can manage any level of debt. Any level. 250 billion? BRING. IT. ON."

Yes, that's true too of course. But it doesn't alter the point.

ei.sdraob wrote:

hmm

Again, not remotely relevant. Not sure what to even say to that. Having balls doesn't mean you swoon over others' balls, perhaps, might be most concise.

Sand

Yes, that's true too of course. But it doesn't alter the point.

I agree Later - attempts to paint the markets in some sort of human terms are clearly futile. However, from my own point of view thats whats intriguing...since 2008 onwards the Irish state, the "responsible view", has tried to seduce, befriend and impress the markets as if they were some sort friend of a friend who we were trying to convince to get us into their golf club. All sort of petty human traits such as veagence, sulking, bitterness and so on have been assigned to the markets - "If we do X, the markets will never, ever, forgive us! They'll hate us forever and ever and ever", like we'd cheated on them with their sister.

Despite all attempts to carry out self-destructive acts to impress the markets, its failed, as were locked out of the markets and remain locked out of the markets, and will remain locked out of the markets for so long as we maintain the macho Mighty Mouse impressions.

I think one of the most telling examples of this misunderstanding of the markets and their cold hearted, souless, inhuman nature was a comment of Constantin Gurdigiev: in response to the latest round of bank tests, when the civil service and their tentacles in the media were exchanging high fives about how the results would reassure investors in Ireland who were so concerned with our bank balance sheets, Mr. Gurdigiev made one contrary point that was essentially - Given the additional 24 billion hole in the banks, Is Ireland facing more debt, or less debt than it was yesterday? Is Ireland more likely, or less likely to have to default than it was yesterday?

The answer was more debt, more risk of default - and the "rally" in Irish debt lasted barely a day or two. Thats the essential truth of the markets - they are inhuman, heartless functions that we cannot befriend or impress. So we should stop trying and simply get on with getting our country solvent - and the quicker the better.

later12

Sand wrote: »

I agree Later - attempts to paint the markets in some sort of human terms are clearly futile. However, from my own point of view thats whats intriguing...since 2008 onwards the Irish state, the "responsible view", has tried to seduce, befriend and impress the markets as if they were some sort friend of a friend who we were trying to convince to get us into their golf club. All sort of petty human traits such as veagence, sulking, bitterness and so on have been assigned to the markets - "If we do X, the markets will never, ever, forgive us! They'll hate us forever and ever and ever", like we'd cheated on them with their sister.

Well I think you're both wrong. The markets do take on human characteristics, at times, although typically an unusual set of characteristics and not those associated with regular, well adjusted individuals. As The Lex once memorably noted, markets - like horror movie buffs - love a good spook (I think 'love' is an exaggeration, but almost certainly endorphins come into it). It is true that they love to be reassured, and comforted, as well... Just look at forex rates when the ECB increase their rates, for proof, although such proof abounds universally. So human characteristics can indeed apply.

What is clearly true, and I apologize for taking anthropormorphism to yet another level, is that while markets can be quick to hate, they can be very slow to love. We do need to assuage them, we do need to comfort them, and we do need to avoid upsetting them needlessly. What is needless and what is necessary is where fricition arises.

Despite all attempts to carry out self-destructive acts to impress the markets, its failed,

I would argue that the wrong guy is carrying out the self flagellation. Investors are only semi-interested in Irish austerity, the big picture is Europe. I believe that if investors saw the ECB take on troubled, peripheralal banks and a fiscaly harmonised Europe, with credibly restructured debt (if still required under that situation) they would see that pain as enough. The thing is no matter how much we self destruct or self flagellate, it will never be enough. That doesn't mean that austerity and honouring our commitments is wrong, it just means that it isn't the entire solution.