Israel Defense Minister believes Iran would not launch nuclear attack

cyberhog

Haaretz asked the Israeli Defense Minister if he thought Iran would bomb Israel. The minister responded: "Not on us and not on any other neighbor."

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/barak-to-haaretz-iran-won-t-drop-nuclear-bomb-on-israel-1.359870

He goes on to say “I don’t think in terms of panic”

Barak must be getting tired of Netanyahu's fear-mongering.

Manic Moran

Always nice to be so confident of someone else's intentions. His job is to assume that they might, even if he personally believes they wouldn't.

NTM

bmaxi

Manic Moran wrote: »

Always nice to be so confident of someone else's intentions. His job is to assume that they might, even if he personally believes they wouldn't.

NTM

Agreed. It was a premise of the Cold war that for one side to launch a nuclear attack would result in mutual destruction.. That premise was, to a large extent, based on the assumption that the other side was ruled by sane, rational people.
Israel can not make that assumption.

PatsytheNazi

cyberhog wrote: »

Haaretz asked the Israeli Defense Minister if he thought Iran would bomb Israel. The minister responded: "Not on us and not on any other neighbor."

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/barak-to-haaretz-iran-won-t-drop-nuclear-bomb-on-israel-1.359870

He goes on to say “I don’t think in terms of panic”

Barak must be getting tired of Netanyahu's fear-mongering.

I think that the world should be far more concerned with Israel whose war criminals for example offered to sell nuclear weapons to someone like apartheid South Africa than Iran launching a nuclear strike.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/23/israel-south-africa-nuclear-weapons

wes

Iran's regime is a rational actor, and also they have not engaged in any kind of war of aggression during its existence. Also, there is still no proof of a nuclear weapons program.

IMHO, all the rhetoric against Iran, is same war mongering nonsense we saw with the Iraq war, and I refuse to believe that some how that same group spouting the same crap a 2nd time, are not some how right.

bmaxi

PatsytheNazi wrote: »

I think that the world should be far more concerned with Israel whose war criminals for example offered to sell nuclear weapons to someone like apartheid South Africa than Iran launching a nuclear strike.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/23/israel-south-africa-nuclear-weapons

I'm not defending Israel, merely pointing out they would be unwise to make presumptions about what Iran may or may not do.
I don't think Iran's leaders are rational, just as most religious zealots are not rational.

Sunnyisland

wes wrote: »

Iran's regime is a rational actor, and also they have not engaged in any kind of war of aggression during its existence. Also, there is still no proof of a nuclear weapons program.

IMHO, all the rhetoric against Iran, is same war mongering nonsense we saw with the Iraq war, and I refuse to believe that some how that same group spouting the same crap a 2nd time, are not some how right.

Imho I would never put Iran down as rational in anything, any country that suppresses its own people from making or having a say or opinion is not rational nor is it to be trusted.

nacho libre

bmaxi wrote: »

Agreed. It was a premise of the Cold war that for one side to launch a nuclear attack would result in mutual destruction.. That premise was, to a large extent, based on the assumption that the other side was ruled by sane, rational people.
Israel can not make that assumption.

Curiously though for all the rhetoric of the Iranian mad mullahs, they've displayed an astute instinct for self perservation since 1979. Also it is important to point out the ayatollah has stated quite a few times Iran cannot posses a nuke as it's unislamic. Are we seeing a rerun of the non existent Iraq WMD. It would seem that way since there is no evidence to suggest Iran is building a nuke.

PatsytheNazi

bmaxi wrote: »

I'm not defending Israel, merely pointing out they would be unwise to make presumptions about what Iran may or may not do.
I don't think Iran's leaders are rational, just as most religious zealots are not rational.

Well I'm no fan of Iran, but you have to give them their credit in real politik sometimes, they woudln't have survived this long as a state if they were supposed to be as illogical and irrational as the west makes out.

But I find it a bit much posting a thread of Israel pointing fingers at anyone and when it comes to been illogical and irrational, a state that claims it's legitimate from a message that the sky fairy allegedly said 2,000 years ago that it is their homeland :rolleyes:

Cork boy 55

Israel made the same mistake in 1973 when its leaders ignored the warning of pending arab agression.

LondonIrish90

PatsytheNazi wrote: »

Well I'm no fan of Iran, but you have to give them their credit in real politik sometimes, they woudln't have survived this long as a state if they were supposed to be as illogical and irrational as the west makes out.

But I find it a bit much posting a thread of Israel pointing fingers at anyone and when it comes to been illogical and irrational, a state that claims it's legitimate from a message that the sky fairy allegedly said 2,000 years ago that it is their homeland :rolleyes:

Vast amounts of Israelis are secularised nowadays, go to Tel Aviv and you would be hard pressed to notice much difference between the religious practices of the local population to those of the local population of a western european city. Many jews see Israel as a state for the Jewish race, as opposed to the homeland of Judaism. A far more logical and rational reason imo, considering that the vast majority of Jews can trace their racial origins to the region.

PatsytheNazi

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

Israel made the same mistake in 1973 when its leaders ignored the warning of pending arab agression.

Preceded by the Arab countries making the same mistake in 1967 ignoring Israeli aggresion.

bmaxi

PatsytheNazi wrote: »

Well I'm no fan of Iran, but you have to give them their credit in real politik sometimes, they woudln't have survived this long as a state if they were supposed to be as illogical and irrational as the west makes out.

But I find it a bit much posting a thread of Israel pointing fingers at anyone and when it comes to been illogical and irrational, a state that claims it's legitimate from a message that the sky fairy allegedly said 2,000 years ago that it is their homeland :rolleyes:

Most of Christendom supports their claim, as I said religion and reality are uneasy bedfellows.
Iran as it stands now was created on religious fervour which "freed" it from an imposed despotic monarchy. I suspect a lot of it's citizens are wondering when the change is going to come

Sunnyisland

[QUOTE=nacho libre It would seem that way since there is no evidence to suggest Iran is building a nuke.[/QUOTE]


Why is there sanctions imposed by and supported by the Un ?

PatsytheNazi wrote: »

Well I'm no fan of Iran, but you have to give them their credit in realpolitik sometimes, they wouldn't have survived this long as a state if they were supposed to be as illogical and irrational as the west makes out. :rolleyes:

Why wouldn't it survive, many a country survives by being totally brutal and oppressive to its own people.

PatsytheNazi

LondonIrish90 wrote: »

Vast amounts of Israelis are secularised nowadays, go to Tel Aviv and you would be hard pressed to notice much difference between the religious practices of the local population to those of the local population of a western european city. Many jews see Israel as a state for the Jewish race, as opposed to the homeland of Judaism. A far more logical and rational reason imo, considering that the vast majority of Jews can trace their racial origins to the region.

No it's all because the sky fairy told them so in the old testament :rolleyes:

cyberhog

bmaxi wrote: »

Agreed. It was a premise of the Cold war that for one side to launch a nuclear attack would result in mutual destruction.. That premise was, to a large extent, based on the assumption that the other side was ruled by sane, rational people.
Israel can not make that assumption.

Israel is a nation driven by fear and paranoia that has rendered it incapable of providing an objective assessment of the Iranian threat.The latest report from the U.S. Intelligence Community revealed they have no idea whether Iran intends to build a bomb or not.

"We continue to assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce such weapons, should it choose to do so. We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons."

http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20110210_testimony_clapper.pdf


But all we get from Israel are hysterical outbursts like this little gem from Netanyahu.

" You don’t want a messianic apocalyptic cult controlling atomic bombs. When the wide-eyed believer gets hold of the reins of power and the weapons of mass death, then the entire world should start worrying, and that is what is happening in Iran."

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/03/netanyahu-to-obama-stop-iran-or-i-will/7390/


A report in the Sdyney Morning Herald quoted Australia's top intelligence agency chief as saying ''It's a mistake to think of Iran as a 'rogue state'.''

The report goes on to say that the agency "urged a balanced view of Tehran as a sophisticated diplomatic player rather than a "rogue state" liable to behave impulsively or irrationally.

http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/intelligence-chiefs-fear-nuclear-war-between-israel-and-tehran-20101212-18u2a.html

And in April 2010, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency director said, "Iran’s military strategy is designed to defend against external threats, particularly from the United States and Israel. Its principles of military strategy include deterrence, asymmetrical retaliation, and attrition warfare." He added that Iran is "unlikely to initiate a conflict intentionally or launch a pre-emptive attack."

http://www.dia.mil/public-affairs/testimonies/2010-04-13.html

But I doubt any of that will temper the bellicosity of Israel and its supporters. I think we can safely assume they will persist in their self-delusion.

Son Of A Vidic

And what of Israeli's nuclear arsenal? Will they show restraint if they feel suitably threatened? Going on their Human Rights record, I wouldn't hold out much hope.

RDM_83 again

LondonIrish90 wrote: »

Vast amounts of Israelis are secularised nowadays, go to Tel Aviv and you would be hard pressed to notice much difference between the religious practices of the local population to those of the local population of a western european city. Many jews see Israel as a state for the Jewish race, as opposed to the homeland of Judaism. A far more logical and rational reason imo, considering that the vast majority of Jews can trace their racial origins to the region.

But does that apply to the rest of the country, have been told by some one resident there that Tel Aviv much more cosmopolitan and secular than other parts

SamHarris

wes wrote: »

Iran's regime is a rational actor, and also they have not engaged in any kind of war of aggression during its existence. Also, there is still no proof of a nuclear weapons program.

IMHO, all the rhetoric against Iran, is same war mongering nonsense we saw with the Iraq war, and I refuse to believe that some how that same group spouting the same crap a 2nd time, are not some how right.

A theocratic regime could hardly be described as entirelly rational, and their "peaceful" relations with other nations is much more based on their ability (or lack thereof) than any particular ideology. Also, according to the IEAE there probably is, or at least they are hiding what they are doing (the working theory is they seek the capability, but not the actual bomb itself).

But I agree, I do not think they are just going to start lobing them about if they had them, it is the leverage the weapon will give them that fuels the Arab/Israeli fear over the issue, I think it would take pretty crazy circumstances to see one actually *used*.

SamHarris

Corvus Maximus wrote: »

And what of Israeli's nuclear arsenal? Will they show restraint if they feel suitably threatened? Going on their Human Rights record, I wouldn't hold out much hope.

Probably not, but then again no state would. It might take more for certain states to use it - Iran and Israel would no doubt be more inclined - but given a certain set of circumstances any nation with the cabality would use it.

SamHarris

RDM_83 again wrote: »

But does that apply to the rest of the country, have been told by some one resident there that Tel Aviv much more cosmopolitan and secular than other parts

Ironically you just described Iran and Tehran pretty well too.

Knight990

The concept of M.A.D (Mutually Assured Destruction) is as alive and well as it was during the cold war. If Iran did launch a nuke at Israel, there wouldn't be a shred of Tehran left after 30 minutes. All of these things i'm sure still play on the minds of all world leaders.

I think it highly unlikely to ever happen, basically. That said, the explosive political situation in the Middle East always surprises.

bmaxi

cyberhog wrote: »

Israel is a nation driven by fear and paranoia that has rendered it incapable of providing an objective assessment of the Iranian threat.The latest report from the U.S. Intelligence Community revealed they have no idea whether Iran intends to build a bomb or not.

"We continue to assess Iran is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons in part by developing various nuclear capabilities that better position it to produce such weapons, should it choose to do so. We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons."

http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20110210_testimony_clapper.pdf


But all we get from Israel are hysterical outbursts like this little gem from Netanyahu.


" You don’t want a messianic apocalyptic cult controlling atomic bombs. When the wide-eyed believer gets hold of the reins of power and the weapons of mass death, then the entire world should start worrying, and that is what is happening in Iran."

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/03/netanyahu-to-obama-stop-iran-or-i-will/7390/


A report in the Sdyney Morning Herald quoted Australia's top intelligence agency chief as saying ''It's a mistake to think of Iran as a 'rogue state'.''

The report goes on to say that the agency "urged a balanced view of Tehran as a sophisticated diplomatic player rather than a "rogue state" liable to behave impulsively or irrationally.

http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology-news/intelligence-chiefs-fear-nuclear-war-between-israel-and-tehran-20101212-18u2a.html

And in April 2010, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency director said, "Iran’s military strategy is designed to defend against external threats, particularly from the United States and Israel. Its principles of military strategy include deterrence, asymmetrical retaliation, and attrition warfare." He added that Iran is "unlikely to initiate a conflict intentionally or launch a pre-emptive attack."

http://www.dia.mil/public-affairs/testimonies/2010-04-13.html

But I doubt any of that will temper the bellicosity of Israel and its supporters. I think we can safely assume they will persist in their self-delusion.

Read the rest of the thread, no defender of Israel. It is my opinion that the leaders of Iran are irrational, religious zealots always are, it's the nature of the beast.

Le King

bmaxi wrote: »

Read the rest of the thread, no defender of Israel. It is my opinion that the leaders of Iran are irrational, religious zealots always are, it's the nature of the beast.

And how would you describe the Israeli government? Same horse, different colour.

wes

realies wrote: »

Imho I would never put Iran down as rational in anything, any country that suppresses its own people from making or having a say or opinion is not rational nor is it to be trusted.

Oh please, the Soviet Union did that all the time, and entire concept of MAD was on the basis that they were a rational actor. The same applies to Iran, much like the Soviet regime, they oppress there own people to stay in power. If you want to stay in power, then oppression and murder etc, is perfectly rational. Now, what there doing is clearly immoral of course, but your confusing rationality with morality.

wes

SamHarris wrote: »

Also, according to the IEAE there probably is, or at least they are hiding what they are doing (the working theory is they seek the capability, but not the actual bomb itself).

The Iranians to be fair are not complying fully with IAEA, which they should do so immediately.

As for them looking for the capability to build a bomb, from what I understand, this will pretty much happen with nation that wants to use nuclear energy, which the NPT allows. Apparently Japan for example could quickly build a bomb, and they aren't violating the NPT at all. So, the problem here is the NPT, as it would essentially result in everyone who signs up, having the expertise to build a bomb if they wanted to.

bmaxi

Le King wrote: »

And how would you describe the Israeli government? Same horse, different colour.

Knock, knock. Am I not getting through here?

Amhran Nua

bmaxi wrote: »

Read the rest of the thread, no defender of Israel. It is my opinion that the leaders of Iran are irrational, religious zealots always are, it's the nature of the beast.

That certainly is their carefully nurtured public image anyway. The reality is a bit more complex, and has a lot to do with them getting extremely rich at the expense of everyone else, as usual. Why do you think people were protesting in the streets against them?

I like Iranians, I even speak a smattering of Farsi. I was having a few pints with a gang of them on St Patricks day a couple of years ago. If you put an Iranian and an Israeli in the same room and take out the politics, they usually get along like a house on fire.

I'm very cautiously optimistic that this comment by the Israeli Defence Minister is an attempt to defuse tensions in the area somewhat, and the Israelis have finally realised that if you take away the western boogeyman (although Iran has excellent reasons to fear western, UK and US, interference from recent history), the corrupt leadership in Iran has no way to keep the population under control. And so one of the most important dominos in the Middle East will fall, and democracy breaks out all over.

The best outcome as far as I can see in all cases is the collapse of dictatorships and the spread of peace and prosperity for the entire region.

BlaasForRafa

Corvus Maximus wrote: »

And what of Israeli's nuclear arsenal? Will they show restraint if they feel suitably threatened? Going on their Human Rights record, I wouldn't hold out much hope.

Sigh, not this old chestnut again. Israel has (allegedly) had the bomb for more than 40 years and haven't shown any signs at all of using them. They didn't threaten to use them during the Yom Kippur war which was the most serious threat Israel has faced.

nacho libre

realies wrote: »

Why is there sanctions imposed by and supported by the Un ?

Sanctions aren't proof of anything. The recent Iraq war attests to that. After the lies over Iraq WMD, the onus is on those making claims to provide solid evidence.