April 2011 could be best month in decades for road fatalities

BrianD3

8 people killed on the roads in April so far. If we can get through today with no deaths it'll be a new monthly low on the below table and probably the best month since motor vehicles became common on our roads.
http://www.garda.ie/Controller.aspx?Page=138

Zonda999

All well and good but IMHO, the full 12 months are the only statistics that can actually be used for comparison. This is good news none the less though, especially considering theres1 and a half bank holiday weekends in the month!

jaffa20

Good to hear. This won't make the news though. Instead they will probably report on the increase of road fatalities for the previous 3 months compared to 2010.

Blitzkrieger

Those speed camera vans must really be working.




:rolleyes:

-Chris-

Jesus, I was just about to post a warning about that, but thought I wouldn't need to...


Please don't derail this thread with speed/safety/revenue camera or RSA bitching.

AugustusMinimus

I'd imagine that petrol topping €1.50 might have something to do with this.

Less driving and some people hypermiling.

Whatever the reason it's good to see.

BrianD3

AugustusMinimus wrote: »

I'd imagine that petrol topping €1.50 might have something to do with this.

Less driving and some people hypermiling.

Whatever the reason it's good to see.

I agree. Because of fuel costs I've been driving less and more slowly. I'd say many others are doing the same.

Tomebagel

Same as,ive cut down on driving big time and noticed alot less traffic in the monrings aswell!

All that tax on petrol and diesel is making the government less money as people are spending less money on diesel/petrol as they were before say when it was at 130ish or less.

Hopefully we get through today without any road deaths

BrianD3

Also very few deaths in NI again this year. 19 according to the below article from the 21st April. Up from 16 in the same period for 2010 and the article uses this to put a negative spin on it. But 19 is still very low and 2010 was an exceptionally good year in NI, by far the best year for road deaths in decades.

http://www.u.tv/news/Road-safety-appeal-as-deaths-increase/0d2d5c93-bdea-4a00-af2b-0e1da45f6c1f

mike65

Probably a mix of elements - great weather/dry roads for the most part, recession traffic levels, expensive fuel, road cameras scaring people.

Eleganza

The bangers of today have a lot more safety devices in them than in previous years. In the past year I have seen cars which prior to crash would have been worth under two thousand euro written off in accidents.
For example I've seen early Lagunas and Stilos with curtain bags deployed and door beams buckled in heavy side-on collisions. Cars from around year 2000 onward would have a raft of active and passive safety devices that are really saving lives.
If you want to know the state of road safety don't look to the RSA for explanations, just visit your local scrapyard and see the technology that was deployed when a car was crashed.

kirving

Although safety technology has made a massive difference to the severity of car crashes, the RSA have to be given some credit for improving driving habits, much less stupidity these days.

(I'd love to say it was only safety improvements that have reduced casualties, and not the RSA - from a young male engineering student point of view, but I'd be wrong..)

Tragedy

Jan/Feb/March was a 37% increase in fatalities compared to the same period in 2010.

Reg'stoy

This reduction which hopefully is a trend rather than a once off should rightly be lauded, but there a many reasons for this drop.

One might be a simple statistical variance which only time will tell, another without a doubt is the fine weather which gives better road conditions and also puts us in a better humour. The Garda and RSA warnings about driving over the bank holidays also put the notion of safer driving in peoples minds. From personal anecdotal evidence I would agree with a prior poster that the use of the safety vans has also slowed people.

Lets celebrate this piece of good news rather than the norm on motors which is to repeatedly paint the ordinary Irish driver (as opposed to regular posters here) as being a step above blind octogenarians. Irish drivers are improving and the new driving test along with proper enforcement of laws will hopefully make us better and so hopefully deaths will continue to drop.

Iwannahurl

Some begrudgery evident in this thread. What matters IMO is the secular trend not the periodic or random variations seen in any one month or other arbitrary time period.

It's clear looking at the annual fatality totals since 1991 (the earliest year I could find with a quick Google search) that the overall trend has been inexorably downwards.

Last year's total of 212 fatalities was the lowest since records began in 1959.

There may be many different factors contributing to this long-term improvement in road safety, including better cars and better roads, but the role of legislation and enforcement should not be overlooked or minimised, especially with regard to important risk factors like alcohol and excessive speed.

For example, fatalities dropped to below 400 in 2002/2003, around the time penalty points were introduced. Random breath testing for drink driving came into force in July 2006 and was immediately followed by the lowest August road death total in twenty years. The benefits of new enforcement measures can wear off as people drift back to their old ways, but there is no doubting that the cumulative effect of these various incremental advances is an overall improvement in road safety. Maybe cynicism and scepticism is sometimes justified, but IMO any genuine attempt at making the roads safer is very welcome, wherever it comes from.

BrianD3

Can't remember where I found these figures but here's fatalities for 1960-2002

1960-302
1961-332
1962-339
1963-335
1964-341
1965-356
1966-382
1967-416
1968-447
1969-462
1970-540
1971-576
1972-640
1973-592
1974-594
1975-586
1976-525
1977-583
1978-628
1979-614
1980-564
1981-572
1982-533
1983-535
1984-465
1985-410
1986-387
1987-462
1988-463
1989-460
1990-478
1991-445
1992-415
1993-431
1994-404
1995-437
1996-453
1997-472
1998-458
1999-413
2000-415
2001-411
2002-376

The 1970s figures are shocking IMO. The population was lower then, there were fewer cars and it's likely that there were fewer miles being driven - yet over 500 died every year with over 600 dying in one year on a couple of occasions.

Iwannahurl

Mad, wasn't it?

I don't think I'll try to put all those figures in one graph, but in any case the overall picture is fairly clear.

There does seem to be a discrepancy or two with regard to the totals for specific years, depending on which source you use. But the differences are minor in the overall context.

It would be interesting, if a bit academic, to look at the long-term trends in terms of fatalities per 100,000 population, or in relation to car ownership/car use.

kirving

Just did out a graph in Excel with the figues you provided, text-to-columns made it quick. (Looking at figures feels a bit insensitive, doesn't it!)

Great to see it going down, hopefully the trend continues..

.

Bumpstop

FFS, no frost or rain in weeks,No jobs, massive petrol prices. with this weather and the present taxation system, we could soon be growing people on the M50.

Shame on any politician, who links this to any kind of planned policy, except massive unemployment leading to less people on the roads.

Lets wait and see.

wait, I think the rant meter is about to disconn..........................................

mikemac

Good weather, dry roads, speed cameras, bank holiday safety campaigns, high fuel prices, unemployment

Well it doesn't take a wizard to announce of course road fatalities drop. The government or RSA doesn't get credit here

Iwannahurl

Bumpstop wrote: »

FFS, no frost or rain in weeks,No jobs, massive petrol prices. with this weather and the present taxation system, we could soon be growing people on the M50.

Shame on any politician, who links this to any kind of planned policy, except massive unemployment leading to less people on the roads

feelingstressed wrote: »

Good weather, dry roads, speed cameras, bank holiday safety campaigns, high fuel prices, unemployment

Well it doesn't take a wizard to announce of course road fatalities drop. The government or RSA doesn't get credit here

What, are you implying that the weather has been good, oil prices high and unemployment up consistently since the 1970s?

Iwannahurl

Road fatalities per 100,000 population, as posted by Dubhthach in another forum in January:

• 1961: 11.77 road deaths per 100,000 population
• 1966: 13.24
• 1971: 19.34
• 1979: 18.06
• 1981: 16.61
• 1986: 10.93
• 1991: 12.62
• 1996: 12.49
• 2002: 9.59
• 2006: 8.68
• 2010: 4.74

Same trend, different perspective.

Jesus Wept

ah back in the old days things were much safer, people were more considerate and careful blah blah blah.

Iwannahurl

The-Rigger wrote: »

ah back in the old days things were much safer, people were more considerate and careful blah blah blah.

Pardon?

tenchi-fan

I drove like a maniac in the past.

I'm not driving now (no need for a car) but if I was, I'd nearly be an example and get a speed limiter or at least some sort of black box installed - particularly if it meant cheaper insurance.

There really is no reason for any deaths on the roads, neither speed, distractions (mobile phone) nor alcohol-related.

cyberhog

OP I think perhaps the wording of your title does not convey the desired meaning.

BrianD3

Iwannahurl wrote: »

Road fatalities per 100,000 population, as posted by Dubhthach in another forum in January:

• 1961: 11.77 road deaths per 100,000 population
• 1966: 13.24
• 1971: 19.34
• 1979: 18.06
• 1981: 16.61
• 1986: 10.93
• 1991: 12.62
• 1996: 12.49
• 2002: 9.59
• 2006: 8.68
• 2010: 4.74

Same trend, different perspective.

Just looking at one of the posts in that thread, am I reading it right that there were 88 people killed on a 3 km stretch of the N1 from 1998-2002. That is shocking.

It is worth reminding ourselves of what the most dangerous roads in Ireland for fatalities (some of which have been improved/replaced)
Here are the figures from an old study from the NRA which has since been removed

1998-2002
Road Carriageway Fatal/injury
N1          Dundalk town to Co. Down border         3km Single 88people
N2          M50 to Ashbourne Dublin                12km Single 72people
N21         Tralee to Castleisland                 16km Single 69people
N25         Waterford to Kilmeadan                  7km Single 37people
N52         Junction with R400 south of Mullingar  15km Single 25people
N53         Dundalk town to Co. Armagh border      13km Single 61people
N54         Monaghan town to Co. Fermanagh border  21km Single 46people
R394        Castlepollard Road to Edgeworthstown   19km Single 33people
N75         Thurles to N8 Tipperary                 9km Single 25people
N78         Athy to R430 Newtown Cross             18km Single 35people

-Corkie-

I have slowed a way down since the introduction of the speed cameras and the increase in Diesel costs. I am getting an extra 100 KM to a tank of fuel now..:)

AugustusMinimus

-Corkie- wrote: »

I have slowed a way down since the introduction of the speed cameras and the increase in Diesel costs. I am getting an extra 100 KM to a tank of fuel now..:)

I've memorised the van locations and i haven't slowed down a bit on motorways.

The result: No penalty points.

AugustusMinimus

BrianD3 wrote: »

Just looking at one of the posts in that thread, am I reading it right that there were 88 people killed on a 3 km stretch of the N1 from 1998-2002. That is shocking.

The major upgrade of the road network over the past 10 years IMO is the primary driver behind the fall in road deaths.

Deaths on motorways are far far less likely than deaths on standard single lane roads.

Stinicker

We also need to remember that well in excess of one Hundred thousand people have emigrated, so there are far less people to be driving cars and crashing into each other; add that to the decline in the economy and the people left here are driving less, the vast majority of migrant workers and their LHD cars are now either gone back to their respective countries or are driving RHD cars and acclimatised to the Irish way of driving, the boom is long gone and the the rush to the El Dorado that claimed so many lives is now over.

In the heady days of the Celtic tiger there was 20 or 30 European migrants getting killed here predominantly in LHD cars, I remember 5 killed in Buncrana alone in 2005.

A similar collapse can be seen in the graph between 1982 to 1986 when FF broke the country back then also. If the folks back then had access to such modern safe cars, Motorways, and as many disincentives to drive (todays generation are far worse off) then I reckon the figure would have had been similarly low.

The graph to me mirrors the economy notice the collapse in around 1973 after the Arab oil embargo also.

Iwannahurl

AugustusMinimus wrote: »

The major upgrade of the road network over the past 10 years IMO is the primary driver behind the fall in road deaths.

Deaths on motorways are far far less likely than deaths on standard single lane roads.

1960-1972: 112% increase in fatalities.
1972-2000: 35% decrease in fatalities.
2000-2010: 49% decrease in fatalities.

There is no doubt that there was a major improvement in the first decade of the 21st Century, in contrast to a massive increase in the first decade or so after records began.

The recent decrease in fatalities certainly correlates with the growth in motorways, which are undoubtedly safer, but correlation is not necessarily causation. The construction of motorways coincided with significant advances in legislation and enforcement, so in order to work out the 'attributable fraction' of each measure you'd have to do some fairly complex analyses, or at least estimate the kind of gains made with reference to the experience of other countries. It all helps, IMO. Credit where credit is due.

pburns

Stinicker wrote: »

We also need to remember that well in excess of one Hundred thousand people have emigrated, so there are far less people to be driving cars and crashing into each other; add that to the decline in the economy and the people left here are driving less, the vast majority of migrant workers and their LHD cars are now either gone back to their respective countries or are driving RHD cars and acclimatised to the Irish way of driving, the boom is long gone and the the rush to the El Dorado that claimed so many lives is now over.

In the heady days of the Celtic tiger there was 20 or 30 European migrants getting killed here predominantly in LHD cars, I remember 5 killed in Buncrana alone in 2005.

A similar collapse can be seen in the graph between 1982 to 1986 when FF broke the country back then also. If the folks back then had access to such modern safe cars, Motorways, and as many disincentives to drive (todays generation are far worse off) then I reckon the figure would have had been similarly low.

The graph to me mirrors the economy notice the collapse in around 1973 after the Arab oil embargo also.

I think you've hit more than a few nails on the head there. Good points.

Iwannahurl

During the 1970s, the worst period for road deaths in Ireland, road fatalities averaged 50 per month, although the country had, at that time, only one third of the current number of vehicles on the road.

Source: Road Safety Strategy 2007-2012.

AugustusMinimus

Iwannahurl wrote: »

1960-1972: 112% increase in fatalities.
1972-2000: 35% decrease in fatalities.
2000-2010: 49% decrease in fatalities.

There is no doubt that there was a major improvement in the first decade of the 21st Century, in contrast to a massive increase in the first decade or so after records began.

The recent decrease in fatalities certainly correlates with the growth in motorways, which are undoubtedly safer, but correlation is not necessarily causation. The construction of motorways coincided with significant advances in legislation and enforcement, so in order to work out the 'attributable fraction' of each measure you'd have to do some fairly complex analyses, or at least estimate the kind of gains made with reference to the experience of other countries. It all helps, IMO. Credit where credit is due.

Well, if part of fall is attributable to safety campaigns, it's not our government who should be complimented but the French.

Before this safety drive started (circa 2002 or 2003) the government here didn't give a rats arse about road safety. IIRC, it was the French through the EU who drove for new levels of road safety in Europe. What our government is doing at the moment is at the behest of the EU and the French who wanted a Pan European drive on road safety.

I would imagine btw, that the 35% fall is mainly down to improvements in car design and the additional safety devices installed on cars. Getting people to wear seat belts was probably the biggest advancement of road safety ever.

Iwannahurl

The EU has civilised us -- that's been my view for quite a while.

Thanks for the reminder about France. The French had to take action on their own diabolical road safety record, and I suppose if they saw what could be achieved through enforcement, engineering and education you couldn't fault them for being a bit evangelical.

France used to have a reputation for absolute carnage on the roads -- I remember it well. Annual fatalities were around the 9000 level in the mid-1950s. Then the body count soared to well over 16,000 by the early 1970s -- a dangerous decade for many of us, it seems.

Then the problem became a political priority and in the 1970s some key policy decisions were made at the highest level in France:

• Appointment of a national road safety manager
• Introduction and enforcement of speed limits
• Compulsory use of seatbelts
• Introduction and enforcement of drink-driving limits

They changed their policies long before we did, but eventually we got around to implementing and enforcing similar measures.

The annual road toll has continued to decrease in France over recent years, and it's now down to about 4000. The decrease accelerated in 2003 after the roll-out of a major speed camera programme -- sceptics take note. By the way, their automated speed cameras generated €469 million in revenue for the French government in 2010!

Absurdum

French people are generally absolute morons behind the wheel*


*disclaimer: every second post on this board is about how dumb Irish people can't use a motorway etc. so suck it up, frogface