Interest Rate on Bailout Sham!

Idbatterim · 10-04-2011 4:09pm #1

is this simply a smokescreen? They are talking about a 1% drop, as it were a game changer! We are not going to increase CT... its simple as. Noonan would be better off focusing on things that are within our control and that will have a significant effect, arguing about a 1% drop, is actually quite pathetic! If we are going to sink, the 1% wont matter one way or another!

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/tax-battle-are-we-losing-to-germany-2615051.html

later12 · 10-04-2011 4:36pm

Why do you ask if it is a smokescreen?
A 1% drop is certainly very significant.

It seems pretty clear that, for better or for worse, CT is off the table.

The good thing about the low visibility of these ECOFIN and associated meetings is that because they are not meetings of heads of governments, they pass under the media radar, as do concessions generally. Michael Noonan himself mentioned this during the week.

If this were a heads of government meeting we might be significantly less hopeful of a deal without the CT issue in order to appease German and Finnish voters.

macannrb · 10-04-2011 7:14pm

i'd agree that its a smokescreen. Pinning our hopes on a few percent interest rate drop in tiny. Its what about half a billion a year

When we are losing 20+bn each year on government expenditure vs income, 70bn on the banks, 35bn on nama

But I also think that if I was going to lend to Ireland, i'd want a rate a lot higher then 6%!

And the market agrees with me http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GIGB10YR:IND

9%!!!!!

Maybe we could buy government bonds with the bailout money!

baldbear · 10-04-2011 7:24pm

I think there will be a 3 country part default, Greece ireland and Portugal. Somethings got to give. It's just when not if!

ilovesleep · 10-04-2011 7:38pm

baldbear wrote: »

I think there will be a 3 country part default, Greece ireland and Portugal. Somethings got to give. It's just when not if!

What is going to happen when Ireland defaults. Are we going be like argentina? According to google there is 60% on the poverty line there. I dont want that for Ireland. I was watching some movies lately like my left foot and angela's ashes where they have protrayed a real sense of poverty in their movies. I dont want Ireland to be that black.

macannrb · 10-04-2011 7:42pm

ilovesleep wrote: »

What is going to happen when Ireland defaults. Are we going be like argentina? According to google there is 60% on the poverty line there. I dont want that for Ireland. I was watching some movies lately like my left foot and angela's ashes where they have protrayed a real sense of poverty in their movies. I dont want Ireland to be that black.

I read this book http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shock_Doctrine
also available on dvd!

by all accounts from it the IMF guys are not nice, and not only is the 60% poverty line bad, but the idea that argentina was a decent place before the IMF/defaults etc

ilovesleep · 10-04-2011 7:46pm

macannrb wrote: »

I read this book http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Shock_Doctrine
also available on dvd!

by all accounts from it the IMF guys are not nice, and not only is the 60% poverty line bad, but the idea that argentina was a decent place before the IMF/defaults etc

I don't think I want to read or watch that.

macannrb · 10-04-2011 7:48pm

well if Colm McCarthy is right, and the government don't tighten the budget, we get to see it in real life

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/restoring-confidence-and-quickly-is-priority-2614964.html

ilovesleep · 10-04-2011 7:54pm

macannrb wrote: »

well if Colm McCarthy is right, and the government don't tighten the budget, we get to see it in real life

http://www.independent.ie/opinion/analysis/restoring-confidence-and-quickly-is-priority-2614964.html

To think it took less than 6 years to fcuk ireland up for good - grim! Things got out of hand with give away budgets from 02 onwards. Damage was done by 07, but it took another year for it to come to light, and it took another two years for me and I'm sure many more to wake up.

later12 · 11-04-2011 1:30am

macannrb wrote: »

by all accounts from it the IMF guys are not nice, and not only is the 60% poverty line bad, but the idea that argentina was a decent place before the IMF/defaults etc

Argentina was never a wealthy society by our standards.

They are also the definitive case study on how not to execute a default. They got it spectacularly wrong - moreso than Ireland by far - any comparisons with Argentina are quite simply off the scale of exaggeration right now.

We are not Argentina.

macannrb · 11-04-2011 3:58pm

later10 wrote: »

We are not Argentina.

My point is that we will be Argentina, in that our standard of living will drop substantially, particularily that of the less well off, and anyone who depends on state support. All this happened in Argentina around the time they defaulted and got "support" from the IMF

later12 · 11-04-2011 4:04pm

macannrb wrote: »

My point is that we will be Argentina, in that our standard of living will drop substantially, particularily that of the less well off, and anyone who depends on state support. All this happened in Argentina around the time they defaulted and got "support" from the IMF

Actually Argentina were in a worse position than Ireland to begin with, and what's more is that things got really bad in Argentina when the IMF were kicked out, not when they were invited in. Asserting that "we will be Argentina" is just groundless hyperbole tbh, you have no facts at all to that effect.

macannrb · 11-04-2011 4:24pm

later10 wrote: »

Actually Argentina were in a worse position than Ireland to begin with, and what's more is that things got really bad in Argentina when the IMF were kicked out, not when they were invited in. Asserting that "we will be Argentina" is just groundless hyperbole tbh, you have no facts at all to that effect.

I refer back to the link on the shock doctrine for my facts. Have a read of the book.

I don't argue that argentina were worse off to begin with, but I do wonder was their national debt approaching 200bn, when you include the banks and nama, and when you consider the flight of capital which has occured in Argentina. The IMF opened up the country to the full effects of open market forces and small/local business were wiped out. Public sector workers were laid off in their thousands. And welfare was pretty much completely cut

Small business could fall further, PS cuts are likely to take place, and welfare will end up being cut dramatically sooner or later.

So not exactly groundless

Interest Rate on Bailout Sham!

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