What will be the make-up of our Government in 2016.

LordSutch

The birth of the 31st Dail featuring Fine Gael & Labour has just taken place (give or take a few days), but what do you imagine the make-up of next Dail might be like in 2016, (which will be the One Hundreth anniversary of the Battle of the Somme & the Easter Rising).

There are soo may imponderables to factor in, like will Fine Gael & Labour succeed in their quest to clean up the mess that Fianna Fail have left behind? and if they don't will they be rejected by the electorate come 2016? > will Fianna Fail regroup & come back stronger than ever by 2016? and considering the state of our planet, might the Green party resurrect itself in Ireland to once again become part of a new coalition? will Sinn Fein build on their fifteen seats? or just drop back to their core vote? will Labour be seriously damaged in the next few years if the economic recovery doesn't go according to plan? can Fine Gael build on their enormous momentum coming into this election, or will they drop back to their much smaller 'core vote' by 2016? might there be a totally new force in Irish politics? Will Declan Ganly return? How will the ULA perform? and might they fragment? How will Ming survive? + oodles of other questions . . . . . .

Enjoy the poll

deise go deo

Its really hard to say,

I can see FF making a recovery but not to where they were, maybe to 22-25%

I think both FG and Labor will suffer from being in government, that said, The other combinations just seem unlikely.

Perhaps FG / Labor with the support of some independent's?

(I voted SF on their own btw:D Mainly because I would love to see the look on Myers face if it happend)

mikemac

FG and Labour to break well before the five year term, maybe three years or so
Then like all junior partners, Labour will suffer whether they deserve it or not

I voted FG & Independents.

FF need to concentrate on the next local elections before they even dream about getting more Dáil seats. That's their priority, they've done badly in the last two local elections.
And the councillors of today are your TD's of tomorrow

Can't ever see the Green Party coming back. Might get one or two Dáil seats and a handful of councilors

johngalway

A FG/Lab coalition Perhaps with a smaller majority, perhaps not. My crystal ball is on the blink.

Humans eh!

"What will be the make-up of our Government in 2016?"

Max Factor, The makeup of makeup piss artists.

Bottle_of_Smoke

I think Fis Nua might get bigger and there my also be an economically right wing party started.

Am following this thread and will bump in 2016, so play nice and don't get it locked!

Denerick

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

I think Fis Nua might get bigger and there my also be an economically right wing party started.

Am following this thread and will bump in 2016, so play nice and don't get it locked!

Lol! Fis Nua aren't going anywhere anytime soon. They are ridiculous just like all those other independent groups that came out of nowhere. I can't help but think of Monty Python or even the monster raving looney party when I think of these groups. Even the United Left Alliance sounds suspiciously like something out of a South Park episode.

I agree with you, there probably will be a new Progressive Democrat party, probably led by someone like Shane Ross. They'd probably get 5 or 6 seats in the next election if they ever got their act together.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

johngalway

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Because socialists like unnecessary grandiose titles?

That or they felt threatened by LA (USA) or UL (Limerick).

UsernameInUse

2016 will see the rise of new parties I believe.

Fianna Fail have failed, and come the end of this year - people will be fuming over Labour and Fine Gael's default. On the other hand, Sinn Fein will never be in power because Ireland is not so keen on socialism (which also counts of the ULA and a majority of independents) - these parties success this year were nothing more than protest votes.

So this leads us to the Greens - useless and lost any credibility.

So it's a foregone conclusion that we'll see the rise of other parties.

PeterIanStaker

I'd say it'll be a mixture of the EU and the IMF in coalition. We didn't manage to get enough German rifles into the country on the Aud in 1916, but we'll sure as **** have German money in 2016.

LordSutch

I guess the Greens will regroup by 2016, but it will be very difficult for them.

johngalway

LordSutch wrote: »

I guess the Greens will regroup by 2016, but it will be very difficult for them.

I wouldn't be so sure. I don't think they'll go away. But they're now very much associated with beating the people with a big tax stick without alternatives (Carbon tax) and supporting toxic Fianna Failure to stay in power for their own ends (referring to that debacle in December then changing their minds :rolleyes: ).

Gone are the days when they were seen as a niche opposition party with a strong view on morals in politics.

LordSutch

johngalway wrote: »

Gone are the days when they were seen as a niche opposition party with a strong view on morals in politics.

But I think its ironic, just when we should be pursuing a 'Green' agenda that the Irish Green party has been wiped out (albeit temporarily)?

Incidentally, I wonder is Ireland now the only country in Europe without a Green Party ???

astrofool

We probably won't see FG get 75 seats again, probably down to about 65 (will still be the largest party).

SF will make some gains and reach a high tide next election (2-3 seats), but will have to change their economic policy completely to move beyond that.

The ULA will probably have broken up by then, RBB will try and run under the SWP banner, but realise that PBP sounds "nicer" and end up having to stick with it.

Labour's future rests on if they can get the public service to reform, if they fail, then I can see an FF/FG right wing government being brought in to finally deal with them, Labour to drop to their third party status again. If they can reform successfully, then they have a real chance of bedding themselves in as the second party.

Hard to see where a non big party coalition partner will come from (PD's, GP etc.), which will make it difficult again to form the next government.

johngalway

LordSutch wrote: »

But I think its ironic, just when we should be pursuing a 'Green' agenda that the Irish Green party has been wiped out (albeit temporarily)?

Incidentally, I wonder is Ireland now the only country in Europe without a Green Party ???

Two things.

A country doesn't need a Green Party to pursue green ideas, all they need is sufficient incentive to do so. We had a Green Party in power for 2.5 ish years, so, for example, why are most large wind energy companies setting up in the UK and not here? The GP were impotent on REAL change when they had the chance. Too busy with banning stag hunting and putting up the price of petrol and diesel without providing incentivised alternatives.

Also, we still have a Green Party. As I have said in other threads, and warned in some, just because they don't have Dail representation doesn't mean they're dead and gone. They're a lot harder to get rid of than that.

Dannyboy83

Hard to say, but I imagine the overall trend will be less centrism, more polarisation/extremism.

We already have a few hard left parties.
We have no hard right party. Yet.

LordSutch

One might argue that those 'protest votes' that went Sinn Fein's way in this election will bounce back to Fianna Fail by 2016.