Paris - Nice 2011

Chips Lovell

So, who do we think is going to win?

buffalo

Richie Porte (Saxobank)

No Nico Roche option? We'll see what his early season form is like, at least.

Chips Lovell

Xavier Tondo (Movistar)

buffalo wrote: »

No Nico Roche option? We'll see what his early season form is like, at least.

Don't think he's targetting this one.

Funkyzeit

Pierrick Fedrigo (FDJ)

Start of the 'real' season. Looking forward to it. Sammy Sanchez for me but tough one to predict giving the fact that haven't a clue what sort of shape people are in.

Going up Col D'Eze on Sunday could be good if it close...

ednwireland

no idea richie porte, twiggo, Ryder Hesjedal, Levi Leipheimer,Jurgen Van Den Broeck

teufelswerk

Peter Sagan all the way

lukester

Fränk Schleck (Leopard)

Voeckler. He won't win, but I'm backing him anyway.

cormpat

teufelswerk wrote: »

Peter Sagan all the way

+1 on this. Surprised he wasn't included in the poll (that's why I voted for some other fella:D). There was an article on Velonews the other day comparing him to Eddy Mercx. He can sprint, climb, time trial & the guys only 21!

Chips Lovell

Xavier Tondo (Movistar)

lukester wrote: »

Voeckler. He won't win, but I'm backing him anyway.

I love Voeckler. He's always game and quite old school in the way you'll see him slugging it out on everything from Belgian cobbles in February to the Alps in July.

niceonetom

Thomas Voeckler (Europcar)

We've seen too little of most of them to know whether they're contenders or not, so it's always a shot in the dark to pick a winner for this. That said, I think Ritchie Porte could do well. He's a good all-rounder, he can climb and he can TT. Voekler will win a stage.

bcmf

Thomas Voeckler (Europcar)

agreed with Voeckler. starting to catch up with Boonen as my man crush favourite cyclist.

although having said that I voted for Porte. I think serious talent lies within.

goldencleric

Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana)

el tonto wrote: »

Don't think he's targetting this one.

I don't get why Nico doesn't try and win Paris-Nice, where he has a serious chance, before going for the tour win.

lukester

Fränk Schleck (Leopard)

Kreuziger has been threatening to do something for a few years. I don't know what his form is like this year, but with a new team where he's their main rider, could be a contender.

Edit: obviously the main contender is Vino's ego.

teufelswerk

goldencleric wrote: »

I don't get why Nico doesn't try and win Paris-Nice, where he has a serious chance, before going for the tour win.

http://www.lequipe.fr/Cyclisme/breves2011/20110301_132742_ag2r-le-groupe-devoile.html

Don't think Nico's ruled himself out at all. At least his directeur sportif is backing him for a top 10. Unless ye guys know something his manager doesn't?

Chips Lovell

Xavier Tondo (Movistar)

teufelswerk wrote: »

Peter Sagan all the way

cormpat wrote: »

+1 on this. Surprised he wasn't included in the poll (that's why I voted for some other fella:D). There was an article on Velonews the other day comparing him to Eddy Mercx. He can sprint, climb, time trial & the guys only 21!

Sagan probably should be on the list alright. I just figured that he's still very young and mightn't make the top step yet. Then again, there's several people on the list who are outsiders at best, such as the French riders.

Chips Lovell

Xavier Tondo (Movistar)

goldencleric wrote: »

I don't get why Nico doesn't try and win Paris-Nice, where he has a serious chance, before going for the tour win.

teufelswerk wrote: »

http://www.lequipe.fr/Cyclisme/breves2011/20110301_132742_ag2r-le-groupe-devoile.html

Don't think Nico's ruled himself out at all. At least his directeur sportif is backing him for a top 10. Unless ye guys know something his manager doesn't?

Recent flare-up of knee trouble, has never shown this early in the year before and is on the record as saying his first big target is Catalunya. Doubt he'll be crap, but don't think he'll be in the reckoning for a win.

buffalo

Richie Porte (Saxobank)

teufelswerk wrote: »

http://www.lequipe.fr/Cyclisme/breves2011/20110301_132742_ag2r-le-groupe-devoile.html

Don't think Nico's ruled himself out at all. At least his directeur sportif is backing him for a top 10. Unless ye guys know something his manager doesn't?

He's going for a stage win - he's said himself he doesn't think he's on form after a winter knee injury.

I just like to dream.

cormpat

el tonto wrote: »

Sagan probably should be on the list alright. I just figured that he's still very young and mightn't make the top step yet. Then again, there's several people on the list who are outsiders at best, such as the French riders.

Remember, last year? He did alright with 2 stage wins, I think & he's in great form at the moment.

I'm really looking forward to watching this race, especially to see how Roche goes.

teufelswerk

cormpat wrote: »

Remember, last year? He did alright with 2 stage wins, I think & he's in great form at the moment.

I'm really looking forward to watching this race, especially to see how Roche goes.

Sagan is unquestionably the most talented cyclist in the pro peleton. Have to admit I never saw him until Tour of Australia 2010 where he proved to be a phenomenal climber. I can't wait to see him contend some sprints with Cav. Hopefully Paddypower have as little knowledge and faith in his chances of winning.
And as for Nico not showing form this early in the year. He came 11th last year and if that doesn't qualify as a show of form I really don't know what expectations people have of him.

goldencleric

Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana)

teufelswerk wrote: »

http://www.lequipe.fr/Cyclisme/breves2011/20110301_132742_ag2r-le-groupe-devoile.html

Don't think Nico's ruled himself out at all. At least his directeur sportif is backing him for a top 10. Unless ye guys know something his manager doesn't?

Last time I take El tonto's words as gospel :rolleyes: ... but seriously I think Nico's main season aim should be Paris-Nice. It would prove his pedigree and earn him the respect he deserves to go for the tour. I recall Sean Kelly naming it as the first stepping stone to a grand tour victory.

Fender76

Anyone know if Eurosport is showing this...?

cormpat

teufelswerk wrote: »

Sagan is unquestionably the most talented cyclist in the pro peleton.

Steady On. While I do think Sagan will be a superstar he hasn't even started a Grand Tour yet. He has the potential to be "the most talented cyclist in the pro peleton". Contadoper, Cancellera or maybe Gilbert (well, he's my favourite any way) are the most talented. If Sagan continues his upward curve at the present rate I think we'll be talking about him for years to come. Lets hope he starts by winning Paris Nice;).

Chips Lovell

Xavier Tondo (Movistar)

goldencleric wrote: »

Last time I take El tonto's words as gospel :rolleyes: ... but seriously I think Nico's main season aim should be Paris-Nice. It would prove his pedigree and earn him the respect he deserves to go for the tour. I recall Sean Kelly naming it as the first stepping stone to a grand tour victory.

Lavenu said they were hoping for a top ten, which is a bit different to saying they're riding for the win. Why go for Paris - Nice when a top ten at least in the Tour is easily in his grasp? When he's already got another one week stage raced targetted?

Some Tour contenders (Contador for example) can win Paris - Nice and go on to win the Tour. Plenty others won't try to peak that early. You don't see Andy Schleck or Basso even starting here.

I'd be worried about Roche if he started trying to win Paris - Nice when he hasn't even gone to his full potential at the Tour yet.

sy

Tony Martin (HTC)

It will be interesting to see how the future stars are shaping up. Van Garderen, Sagan, Van Den Broeck, Porte, Kreuziger and the young Sicard and Phinney will all be present. LL Sanchez will be there at the end, Vino will do his best for a stage win and hopefully Nico. Sagan will wear the white jersey but not sure if he can manage the 10km climb at average 8.4% and the 27km TT will play a big role in the overall result (Richie Porte will like this one).
My bet is with Van Garderen showing that he is a future contender for a big Tour win.
Can anyone confirm that Ricco is riding!

Chips Lovell

Xavier Tondo (Movistar)

cormpat wrote: »

Remember, last year? He did alright with 2 stage wins

He still only finished 17th though.

07Lapierre

Roman Kreuziger (Astana)

Fender76 wrote: »

Anyone know if Eurosport is showing this...?

Yes

cormpat

el tonto wrote: »

He still only finished 17th though.

Yes, but he's a year older now & that was his debut season. 17th is pretty good if you ask me.

Junior

el tonto wrote: »

Lavenu said they were hoping for a top ten, which is a bit different to saying they're riding for the win. Why go for Paris - Nice when a top ten at least in the Tour is easily in his grasp? When he's already got another one week stage raced targetted?

Some Tour contenders (Contador for example) can win Paris - Nice and go on to win the Tour. Plenty others won't try to peak that early. You don't see Andy Schleck or Basso even starting here.

I'd be worried about Roche if he started trying to win Paris - Nice when he hasn't even gone to his full potential at the Tour yet.

I think a Paris Nice win (i.e. a highly regarded one week stage race) win would be more important than just a top ten in the Tour. Surely the indicators are the other way, if you can top ten in the Tour you should be able to compete and win at week long stage race level ?

goldencleric

Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana)

Junior wrote: »

I think a Paris Nice win (i.e. a highly regarded one week stage race) win would be more important than just a top ten in the Tour. Surely the indicators are the other way, if you can top ten in the Tour you should be able to compete and win at week long stage race level ?

My sentiment exactly - a win in Paris-Nice is more important at this stage of his career than a top ten in the tour I think. El Tonto has made some good points about other one-week stage races and early season form but I still think he should be targetting this, even to just rubberstamp the idea that he can follow in his father's footsteps and even to just raise his profile internationally.

Chips Lovell

Xavier Tondo (Movistar)

Junior wrote: »

I think a Paris Nice win (i.e. a highly regarded one week stage race) win would be more important than just a top ten in the Tour. Surely the indicators are the other way, if you can top ten in the Tour you should be able to compete and win at week long stage race level ?

This early in the year though? Sure, some guys can still do that, but the majority don't. Of course you can win a week long race of your a Tour contender. Roche seems to think that himself, given he's targetting Cataluyna.

goldencleric wrote: »

My sentiment exactly - a win in Paris-Nice is more important at this stage of his career than a top ten in the tour I think. El Tonto has made some good points about other one-week stage races and early season form but I still think he should be targetting this, even to just rubberstamp the idea that he can follow in his father's footsteps and even to just raise his profile internationally.

I'd have to disagree that a Paris - Nice win is more significant. Sure it's prestigious, but in my opinion, he'd get far more recognition, especially in the English speaking world, if he was in contention at the Tour. Look at Wiggins. He's a star now after riding to fourth the year before last. Do you think he'd have the same profile if he'd won Paris - Nice instead?

Last year he rode a great Tour despite having his preparation hampered by injury and having two unlucky days. Eliminate them, come back even stronger and he could go much better. I think it would be rash to just ditch the curve he was on when he hadn't pushed it as far as it can go.

Junior

el tonto wrote: »

I'd have to disagree that a Paris - Nice win is more significant. Sure it's prestigious, but in my opinion, he'd get far more recognition, especially in the English speaking world, if he was in contention at the Tour. Look at Wiggins. He's a star now after riding to fourth the year before last. Do you think he'd have the same profile if he'd won Paris - Nice instead?

Last year he rode a great Tour despite having his preparation hampered by injury and having two unlucky days. Eliminate them, come back even stronger and he could go much better. I think it would be rash to just ditch the curve he was on when he hadn't pushed it as far as it can go.

So in your opinion hype is better than winning ? I'm saying he should bury the tour ambition but I don't see him finishing on the top step of the tour podium, but with the application and knoweldge of what he's got from the Tour, certainly he can go to win week long stage races, Cataluyna I don't think so, Basso, Contador will be present.

Kelly always wintered hard, hit Paris Nice and was in top form for the classics, who's not to say you couldn't winter well hit Paris Nice and Cataluyna and avoid the Classics ?

Chips Lovell

Xavier Tondo (Movistar)

Junior wrote: »

So in your opinion hype is better than winning?

A placing is not hype. It's still result. And what does winning mean? Recognition. What I'm saying is I believe you get more recognition for a high Tour placing than Paris - Nice.

Aside from enhaning your earning power, it also ups your chances of securing a deal as the leader of a strong team.

Junior wrote: »

I'm saying he should bury the tour ambition but I don't see him finishing on the top step of the tour podium

I don't think he'll ever be a Tour winner either. But 3rd to 6th is achievable at some point.

Junior wrote: »

Kelly always wintered hard, hit Paris Nice and was in top form for the classics

That was 25 years ago. The sport has changed a lot since.

teufelswerk

cormpat wrote: »

Steady On. While I do think Sagan will be a superstar he hasn't even started a Grand Tour yet. He has the potential to be "the most talented cyclist in the pro peleton". Contadoper, Cancellera or maybe Gilbert (well, he's my favourite any way) are the most talented. If Sagan continues his upward curve at the present rate I think we'll be talking about him for years to come. Lets hope he starts by winning Paris Nice;).

I stand by my statement, he just hasn't shown his potential yet is all (nor has he been accused of cheatting). The man has come through the ranks with great style and shows that he had an exceptional all round engine since he was 15 or 16. Don't think you'll find another rider in the peleton that gives Cadel Evans a run for his money in the hills and can take a sprint against the likes of Haussler.

ROK ON

WOuld really like to see someone like Chavanel do well, but I think he is more a stage winner from an attack rather than an outright stage race winner.

Have to say I agree with Jnr on Nico. If profile is important, then maybe he should be looking at X Factor. Sport is about winning, and Roche dont win a whole lot. There are a few highly prestigious shorter stage races. I think that he should build his season around them. If successful, then when he eventually retires, he will have a palmares that he can look back on rather than many near misses.

There are some strong teams here. Martin has a good HTC team around hime. Rabo look good. Hopefully it keeps us guessing till the end.

Chips Lovell

Xavier Tondo (Movistar)

Only seven of the 13 riders listed above won a stage race in 2010. One of them is the guy who's gotten no votes so far.

John.Icy

Well last year he went for it at Paris Nice on a couple of days, rode a great tour, despite a few unlucky days, and he rode a simply amazing Vuelta, and minus the time trial, he would have finished top 5, even up to 3rd. (Velits came 3rd, Roche was ahead of him before the trial, and finished a minute ahead of him on the last climb stage)

So going for it, regaurdless of form, is within Nico's capabilities.

Diarmuid

Xavier Tondo (Movistar)

Tony Martin won the polka dot jersey in the PN 2009, he is probably the second best TT'er around at the moment. He has good form, winning the Tour of the Algarve and winning the TT on the way. My money's on him

cormpat

teufelswerk wrote: »

I stand by my statement, he just hasn't shown his potential yet is all (nor has he been accused of cheatting). The man has come through the ranks with great style and shows that he had an exceptional all round engine since he was 15 or 16. Don't think you'll find another rider in the peleton that gives Cadel Evans a run for his money in the hills and can take a sprint against the likes of Haussler.

I must disagree. It's still only potential. He hasn't even started a grand tour! How can the best rider in the peleton not have started a Grand Tour? I think that's a bit of a contradiction. I can think of many riders that have dropped Evans in the mountains; Basso being one in last years Giro. Evans didn't have a broken elbow then, he was fully fit.

What does everyone else think? Is Sagan the most talented rider in the pro peletion?

c0rk3r

A list of previous winners

1995 Laurent Jalabert (FRA) ONCE
1996 Laurent Jalabert (FRA) ONCE
1997 Laurent Jalabert (FRA) ONCE
1998 Frank Vandenbroucke (BEL) Mapei-Bricobi
1999 Michael Boogerd (NED) Rabobank
2000 Andreas Klöden (GER) Team Telekom
2001 Dario Frigo (ITA) Fassa Bortolo
2002 Alexandre Vinokourov (KAZ) Team Telekom
2003 Alexandre Vinokourov (KAZ) Team Telekom
2004 Jörg Jaksche (GER) Team CSC
2005 Bobby Julich (USA) Team CSC
2006 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak
2007 Alberto Contador (ESP) Discovery Channel
2008 Davide Rebellin (ITA) Gerolsteiner
2009 Luis León Sánchez (ESP) Caisse d'Epargne
2010 Alberto Contador (ESP) Astana

Tis a sorry list of "champions" (spit). Its amazing how the farce continues every year

Hail 2 Da Thief

Nicolas Roche:

But Paris-Nice is the type of race where you have to be in great form to do well overall, so new signing Jean-Christophe Peraud will be the official team leader of my Ag2r team this week.

From here

teufelswerk

Haven't seen any of the highlights at all from last few days, only the results. Anyone looking strong? Big stage tomorrow, be interesting to see what form Vino will be in. Could be good chance for Nico as well if he's thinking of a stage win.

Hail 2 Da Thief

teufelswerk wrote: »

Haven't seen any of the highlights at all from last few days, only the results.

Hers's the final 3km from today. You'll also find the final 7km here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCUkwf4ZvjQ

Anyone hear how Sagan is after todays crash? I put a small bet on him for the GC so hope he's alright!

ednwireland

gret win from voeckler there great cat and mouse in the last fe km with the breakaway de gent drove it all the way though great racing

niceonetom

Thomas Voeckler (Europcar)

niceonetom wrote: »

We've seen too little of most of them to know whether they're contenders or not, so it's always a shot in the dark to pick a winner for this. That said, I think Ritchie Porte could do well. He's a good all-rounder, he can climb and he can TT.

Voekler will win a stage.

What'd I tell ya?

De Gendt was the rider of the day though. Brilliant.

cormpat

Feel Bad for De Gent, he seemed to be doing most of the pulling...

happytramp

Yeah, after all De Gendt's hard work It didn't seem quite that glorious when Vockler sprinted across the line and threw his arms up triumphantly. To be fair though they all did great.

niceonetom

Thomas Voeckler (Europcar)

Totally different objectives! I have no doubt that De Gendt would give Voekler the stage in return for instigating and working hard in the break. If De Gendt allowed any games in the last couple of km he knew the whole break would be for nothing. Better to destroy himself on the front to keep the gap and let the other duke it out. In the end he would still stand a chance of picking up a bonification anyway. De Gendt took the intermediate time bonuses bonifications too, so it was obvious to everyone in that bunch they were riding together but for very different reasons.

happytramp

Fair enough. I wonder if we'll see something similar tomorrow.

goldencleric

Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana)

Nico Roche wrote:

I’m better off trying to push myself to stay with the top guys on the climbs rather than trying to go in an early break and maybe losing time at the end

Hmm maybe not so wise after all, he could have ended up with a Paris-Nice stage victory

cormpat

goldencleric wrote: »

Hmm maybe not so wise after all, he could have ended up with a Paris-Nice stage victory

I don't know, hindsight is a great thing & all that. I read that article this morning & I thought the same thing; the break would be caught! He would be better off saving himself for tomorrow's mountain stage. Does anyone know can De Gendt climb as well?

goldencleric

Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana)

@cormpat

true what you say that everyone assumes the break will get caught but I don't get why he doesn't go for it now at Paris-Nice where he is not the designated team leader rather than trying for a top ten on a mountian stage .. maybe i'm wrong, actually I hope I am wrong and he wins a mountain stage