Do you think Fianna Fail will ever recover?

dilbert2

With the election wipe-out for Fianna Fail, and with them falling to an all-time low, do you think they will be back, or are they forever resigned to second or third place in Irish politics behind Fine Gael and Labour? Or do you see them recovering, despite their all-time low in this election? Would you say Fianna Fail will recover their leadership position in,

(a) 5 years
(b) 10 years
(c) 20 years
(d) Never.

Monty Burnz

Given the stupitidy of the Irish voter, I wouldn't be surprised to see Fianna Failure capitalise on FG/Labour's attempts to clean up the disaster they left us and come back in 5 years, but 10 years seems more likely.

Dannyboy83

Used to think they would for sure.

Listened to Newstalk this morning, going through the mortgage epidemic.
No way people are going to forgive & forget what is about to happen over the next 2 years.
This is going to have very long lasting consequences.

seamus

I think the situation at present is as one of the new TDs (Shane Ross?) said - the new Government have simply been given a loan of FF votes in order to give them a chance to change things.

If they don't manage to make a good difference - i.e. reduction in unemployment, increase in general economic stability - then FG & Labour will lose all that they've gained. If the new government also doesn't last more than 18 months, people will also be inclined to go back to FF because at the very least they have tended to provide stable government.

syklops

People have very short memories. The seeds of the Celtic Tiger were planted by the FG/Labour governments of the early 90's but by the time it came fruition, everyone believed FF when they said they had created the tiger and kept voting them back in.

In 10 years time when FG/Lab have made the Public Service smaller, and improved healthcare, and stabilised the debt, and brought us out of Recession, FF will be promising voters a Merc in every driveway and they will get in again.

Monty Burnz

seamus wrote: »

I think the situation at present is as one of the new TDs (Shane Ross?) said - the new Government have simply been given a loan of FF votes in order to give them a chance to change things.

That's right, because as soon as FG and Labour fix things, these morons will go back to voting for the gombeens in the populist/peasant party that bankrupted us...

seamus wrote: »

If they don't manage to make a good difference - i.e. reduction in unemployment, increase in general economic stability - then FG & Labour will lose all that they've gained. If the new government also doesn't last more than 18 months, people will also be inclined to go back to FF because at the very least they have tended to provide stable government.

Stable, as in going from a bubble to a depression? :pac:

Seriously though, with the best government in the world things are not going to be better in 18 months, they will all likelihood be much worse. The FFailure crash has really only begun.

seamus

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Stable, as in going from a bubble to a depression? :pac:

For some reason people seem to have this inbuilt thing about stable governance. We saw all the weeping and wailing when the Brits were going on about the "horror" of a hung parliament last year. They seem to care more about whether or not the government will last rather than how much damage they might do.

Personally I'd be more than happy to go to the polls for a new government every two years as long as things were getting done. Five years seems like an awfully long time in this modern world for one group of people to be power.

If they had to stand for re-election every two years, they'd have to work harder to have something to show for their time in government.

Monty Burnz

seamus wrote: »

If they had to stand for re-election every two years, they'd have to work harder to have something to show for their time in government.

Yes and no - sometimes it takes a good long while to bring projects to fruition. One of the reasons that Brazil has come along in leaps and bounds was that Lula was in for a good long while without worrying about popularity contests. On the other hand, 5 years is a long time to be stuck with morons like Fianna Failure in charge.

PeterIanStaker

They'll definitely be back in next time around, because the new govt will find it nigh on impossible to clean up the mess FF made.

Even if Gilmore & Kenny do their best with cuts and austerity measures coupled with trying to create jobs, they still will not be able to undo FF's mess.

FF will then blame them "for causing the recession" - the herd will believe them and hey presto FF are back in.

NWPat

The country has a large proportion of people with a conservative perspective on life in general, and certainly on politics. The only choice for them is FF or FG, anything else is just too far from the comfort zone. Do not be surprised if FF make a comeback in the next general election after the next few years, which will be tough on everyone.

Penny Dreadful

Personally I think the FF brand and image has been so badly tainted that Michael Martin may well organise the winding up of the party and start a new one. Granted it will be FF by another name but this has happend countless times e.g. Cumman na nGael, Clann na Phublacht, New Ireland, etc etc and there is no reason to think that it won't again.

donvito99

Fianna Fáil must take advantage of new faces in the future. The electorate will never forget the damage done, but after the Fine Gael - Labour coalition accomplishes nothing in the next 5 years, I think we can expect modest gains, maybe in former strongholds where this year they lost 1/2 seats.

Hopefully by the next GE there will be proper options for people like myself who couldn't force themselves to vote FF or FG, and had to settle on Lab and INDs. A proper left or right is badly needed.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

donvito99

Also, love how Sinn Féin hope to build after the next election, Mary Lou was on about it.

I think the protest vote will well and truly have dried up by then, not to mention that there economic policy will be picked to shreds over the course of five years.

We have some turbulent political times ahead, no more complacency which is good.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

20Cent

Don't think they will ever recover to where they were. What can they do in oppositions now? All the unpopular decisions the new Gov have to make will be due to FF so they can't criticise them. There will be more revelations of the FF scams, the tribunal results, investigations etc to hammer them some more. When FG/Labour implode people won't go running back to FF they will prob turn left.

Gael23

I dont agree with some posters saying that people will forget quickly. People took a long time to get over Fine Gaels attempt in 1982 to tax kids shoes for example.
I think there are 2 ways the future could go for Fianna Fail. The most favourable for them would be for the new govt to be short lived,which I think is possible, and then there will be a swing back to them. But if this govt stands for a longer term it will destroy FF. The demographic of their vote is mostly older people in rural areas and as this hardcore vote slowly dies out there will be no young blood to fill the hole. I think the future for FF is grim and it will take at least 20 years, if ever, for them to be able to form a Government

jimmycrackcorm

seamus wrote: »

Personally I'd be more than happy to go to the polls for a new government every two years as long as things were getting done. Five years seems like an awfully long time in this modern world for one group of people to be power.

That Sinn Fein gained so many seats despite their whacky economic policy should demonstrate that the electorate is not interested in getting things done. At least five years gives a stable government to implement unpopular but necessary policies.

Killer Pigeon

If Labour decide to go into opposition ... probably never.

... which is why Labour SHOULD go into opposition!!

Min

syklops wrote: »

People have very short memories. The seeds of the Celtic Tiger were planted by the FG/Labour governments of the early 90's but by the time it came fruition, everyone believed FF when they said they had created the tiger and kept voting them back in.

In 10 years time when FG/Lab have made the Public Service smaller, and improved healthcare, and stabilised the debt, and brought us out of Recession, FF will be promising voters a Merc in every driveway and they will get in again.

FF were in power from 1987 to 1994/95, then FG/Lab had 2 years in what was a rising tide in the economy when they took over.

pragmatic1

I dont think they can tbh. Their base is dying off, we already have a centre right party, they're in debt and they were the ones who brought the IMF into town. They will recover seats in the next GE no doubt, but they wont be anywhere near what they were.

pragmatic1

Min wrote: »

FF were in power from 1987 to 1994/95, then FG/Lab had 2 years in what was a rising tide in the economy when they took over.

FG/Lab policies like abolishing third level fees and lowering corporation tax to 12.5% is what got our economy on track. Was there ever a FG/Lab coalition that entered government after FF with a budget surplus. Dont think so.

Min

pragmatic1 wrote: »

FG/Lab policies like abolishing third level fees and lowering corporation tax to 12.5% is what got our economy on track. Was there ever a FG/Lab coalition that entered government after FF with a budget surplus. Dont think so.

FF didn't in 1987 when they entered government after 5 years of FG/Labour - the economy was in a mess.

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=40799

Well before the euro’s introduction in the late 1990s, Ireland was prospering. From 1990 to 1995, GDP was growing significantly faster than in other GIIPS, and inflation and borrowing costs were not only below that of the other GIIPS, they were close to German levels.

Additionally, Ireland’s governance and business climate indicators2 were among the world’s strongest. Labor markets were flexible and the education system was one of the best in Europe.

1990 was around the time of the FF/PD government.


In this article: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m4456/is_n56/ai_16565407/

The 1994 budget and the subsequent faster-than-expected growth of activity should result in a slight decline in the deficit, to around 2.3 per cent of GDP, a lower deficit than expected in the budget, allowing further progress in reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio which now stands at 91 per cent on the basis of Maastricht definitions (down from a peak of almost 120 per cent in 1987).

Growth before the FG/Labour government of 1995 was already at 5%, FF had been in government for 8 years and at the time they had unemployment falling, growth rate rising and the debt to GDP ratio falling. After the FG/labour government it was near 120% and in 1994 it was down to 91%.

The two year government of FG/Labour was during a rising tide, the economy was already heading towards budget surpluses.
The article in 1994 said that unemployment would fall and growth remain high, the fundamentals were there for the budget surpluses.

liammur

dilbert2 wrote: »

With the election wipe-out for Fianna Fail, and with them falling to an all-time low, do you think they will be back, or are they forever resigned to second or third place in Irish politics behind Fine Gael and Labour? Or do you see them recovering, despite their all-time low in this election? Would you say Fianna Fail will recover their leadership position in,

(a) 5 years
(b) 10 years
(c) 20 years
(d) Never.

I would be a bit concerned about the shift to the left, particularly in Dublin. Dublin is getting too big for the size of the country. FF will in all probability play 2nd fiddle to FG, so we will have a choice between a Fg/Ff govt, or a labour/and left tds

Denerick

I believe this is only a blip. The Irish people have short memories. Witness, for example, the rise of a party who were not so long ago determined to destroy this State in the most recent election. Fianna Fáil became the dominant party in this country only two decades after waging a civil war against the pro treaty faction who built the solid foundations of this democracy. The anti treaty IRA were essentially pursuing a military dictatorship. Irish people have terribly short memories.

Denerick

liammur wrote: »

labour/and left tds

That will only happen if Labour begin to dominate Dublin and SF begin to increase their representation in the countryside. Then this might be possible. Frankly I don't see it happening anytime in my generation.

mikemac

Local elections aren't that far off.
And if you wanted to run as a councillor, now is the time to get organized.

To use a sports term, FF need to "self scout".

They need to work on councils and the next local election before they even think about increasing their Dáil seats.
Your bright new candidates will be in the next local election, they are the future of the party if there is a future.

Voodoo_rasher

wishful thinking says never!

liammur

Denerick wrote: »

That will only happen if Labour begin to dominate Dublin and SF begin to increase their representation in the countryside. Then this might be possible. Frankly I don't see it happening anytime in my generation.

I see it happening already.

The left/right divide is underway with the demise of FF

Dannyboy83

Fianna Fail always rely on buying their way back into power, and wrecking the state in the process.
Lynch and Ahern the two worst offenders.

Presumably with IMF/ECB oversight, they won't be able to do this for a while.
In the meantime, I hope some legislation can be passed to ensure they can't do this in the future.

Denerick

liammur wrote: »

I see it happening already.

The left/right divide is underway with the demise of FF

What is more likely is that FF and FG will switch sides for a generation. FG will average 70 seats for the forseeable future and FF will average 40-50. Labour will probably balance out at around 25 (They will be destroyed in the next election, junior coalition partners always are, and it seems they are determined to go for the ministries that will deliver the worst news -finance, health etc.)

Capt'n Midnight

feelingstressed wrote: »

Local elections aren't that far off.
And if you wanted to run as a councillor, now is the time to get organized.

To use a sports term, FF need to "self scout".

They've lost 160 local councillors in recent years.

They will loose most of their senators.

It's not just the TD's that there have been allegations of corruption
http://www.irishecho.com.au/tag/colm-mcgrath

Four former Fianna Fail politicians and a Gibraltar-based businessman appeared in court over an alleged corrupt multimillion-euro land deal.

Former Senator Don Lydon, former councillors Sean Gilbride and Colm McGrath and now Independent Tony Fox appeared at an evening sitting of Dublin District Court.

Jim Kennedy, who was treated for heart trouble after his arrest on Tuesday, faced six charges of paying off politicians in order to rezone land.

Gardai told the court they have wanted to question the businessman, now a British citizen after renouncing his Irish citizenship in 2002, for eight years.

The five were all alleged to have been part of a cash-for-votes scandal which led to more than 100 acres of prime land in south county Dublin being rezoned in the 1990s.

The charges follow a marathon investigation into the 53 million euro hike in land prices at Carrickmines.

The lands were frozen by the Criminal Assets Bureau in 2005.

raymon

Denerick wrote: »

What is more likely is that FF and FG will switch sides for a generation. FG will average 70 seats for the forseeable future and FF will average 40-50. Labour will probably balance out at around 25 (They will be destroyed in the next election, junior coalition partners always are, and it seems they are determined to go for the ministries that will deliver the worst news -finance, health etc.)

FF on 40 seats!!! You are joking obviously.

FF is too rotten dishonest and incompetent

Next election = 12
Next election = 8
Next =6
And so on

liammur

Denerick wrote: »

What is more likely is that FF and FG will switch sides for a generation. FG will average 70 seats for the forseeable future and FF will average 40-50. Labour will probably balance out at around 25 (They will be destroyed in the next election, junior coalition partners always are, and it seems they are determined to go for the ministries that will deliver the worst news -finance, health etc.)

Only time will tell.

If labour lose seats, make no mistake they will go to SF/lefties

Lefticus Loonaticus

dilbert2 wrote: »

With the election wipe-out for Fianna Fail, and with them falling to an all-time low, do you think they will be back..........

"It should have ended that day, but evil was allowed to endure."

-Gandalf

Denerick

raymon wrote: »

FF on 40 seats!!! You are joking obviously.

FF is too rotten dishonest and incompetent

Next election = 12
Next election = 8
Next =6
And so on

You think too highly of the people of this island. You're not the first to be let down by the lack of virtue of your fellow citizens, and you won't be the last.

keno-daytrader

Lefticus Loonaticus wrote: »

"It should have ended that day, but evil was allowed to endure."

-Gandalf

LOL great post, sums it up perfectly

ninty9er

raymon wrote: »

FF on 40 seats!!! You are joking obviously.

FF is too rotten dishonest and incompetent

Next election = 12
Next election = 8
Next =6
And so on

Yeah yeah. Heard it all before. Wasn't true then, isn't true now and FF will be back. I'll personally make sure of it.

Take my comment as dismissive, but Fianna Fáil has spent too long wasting its time on people like you who never had any intention of voting for us in the first place and could never be convinced.

A return to the core philosophies is now what is called for and it will happen. The Fianna Fáil Ardchomhairle met last Thursday and one of the things that wasn't discussed was winding up the party, because it's not on the cards.

Denerick

ninty9er wrote: »

Yeah yeah. Heard it all before. Wasn't true then, isn't true now and FF will be back. I'll personally make sure of it.

Take my comment as dismissive, but Fianna Fáil has spent too long wasting its time on people like you who never had any intention of voting for us in the first place and could never be convinced.

A return to the core philosophies is now what is called for and it will happen. The Fianna Fáil Ardchomhairle met last Thursday and one of the things that wasn't discussed was winding up the party, because it's not on the cards.

What are your core philosophies? Have you ever had any? Your core philosophy is to win as many votes as possible by being populist (This is aided by the poor standard of political virtue expressed by the Irish people)

raymon

ninty9er wrote: »

Yeah yeah. Heard it all before. Wasn't true then, isn't true now and FF will be back. I'll personally make sure of it.

Take my comment as dismissive, but Fianna Fáil has spent too long wasting its time on people like you who never had any intention of voting for us in the first place and could never be convinced.

A return to the core philosophies is now what is called for and it will happen. The Fianna Fáil Ardchomhairle met last Thursday and one of the things that wasn't discussed was winding up the party, because it's not on the cards.

Was a winding down of the corruption and lies mentioned ? If so then this is a wise move

I wasn't aware of any core philosophies , that sounds interesting . Please let us know.

rightwingdub

I could see Fianna Fail getting bak into government within 10 years, don't underestimate the number of naive people that plague this country. FF will probably get about 40 seats in the next election and about 55-60 in the following election.

Het-Field

ninty9er wrote: »

Yeah yeah. Heard it all before. Wasn't true then, isn't true now and FF will be back. I'll personally make sure of it.

Take my comment as dismissive, but Fianna Fáil has spent too long wasting its time on people like you who never had any intention of voting for us in the first place and could never be convinced.

A return to the core philosophies is now what is called for and it will happen. The Fianna Fáil Ardchomhairle met last Thursday and one of the things that wasn't discussed was winding up the party, because it's not on the cards.

I hope for a FF resurgence. But your attitude is not what is required i.e. "FF will be back, and Ill personally make sure of it". Self deprication at a time like this is crucial. The statements of Dick Roche's election agent after Roche's loss, Batt O'Keefe's bitter ramblings on election night, Charles McConalogue's refusal to directly address the issue of FF's percieved transfer repellance, and Sean Dorgan's cries of "lessons learned" is not what is required. The same applies to your defiant attitude. It simply serves to irk the public, who dont wish to be spoken to in a churlish or perfunctory manner.

"A return to core philosophies" ? The core FF philosophy is purportedly a "Republican" philosophy. Yes, they party contributed to the eventual departure of the Irish state from the rule of the crown. Yes, a mutually acceptable solution to the Northern crisis was reached, whereby NI could eventually be relieved of its duties to the crown, and FF participated heavily in that. However, since then the "Republican" badge which has been invoked by FF has become superficial, and is used in a nationalist and historic sense, without any real substance. In fact, I doubt many members of FF could actually pinpoint what form of "Republican" they actually are. Ultimately, the lack of real core principles gave rise to the Hilarie Belloc nightmare of the imposition of socialism on a capitalist market, and a refusal to deal with pressing social concerns. Sadly, this allowed the 30th Incarnation of the FF party to become arrogant, defiant, and unwilling to listen. It also gave rise to short-term and hastily cobbled together plans, which remain questionable, and there is no guarantee of their success. A party beholden to an ideology is a bad thing, but I believe a party without an ideology can be worse.

It is up to the new FF to lead a re-definition of the word "Republican". Personally, I would like to see the Party follow a "liberal-Republican" line. It should embrace the market, as FF is essentially a party of the free-market, and it should also seek to embrace personal freedoms (which is Republican in the sense that no one person is subserviant to the will of another). Another option would be to choose the "conservative-Republican" line, where Irish values are considered paramount, but the concept of free-trade is paramount. Either way, FF must define what broad ideology it belongs to. Otherwise, it will continue to act right wing while speaking left, and vise-versa. It cannot continue to use the "Republican" tag as a badge of honour, without having anything to back it up.

Finally, FF must not assume that FG/Lab will collapse and all and sundry will run back to FF eventually. The experience of the UK Conservative Party must be noted. It is far more comparable to the situation FF find themselves in now, then the situation FG found themselves in in 2002.