Cheltenham Trends

UnitedIrishman

Was going to bump last years thread about the Cheltenham trends but thought I'd get a new discussion going.

How much do you look at the trends when determining the horse you're going for? And what are the most important trends you look at when looking at a race?

For example I applied a lot of the trends I've seen online (still waiting on my Wetherby's Cheltenham Festival Guide to arrive!) and have picked Dunguib and Hurricane Fly as my two for the CH. Hardly rocket science or anything but a lad I've worked with applied the same trends for a few of the big field handicaps and had 3 of the first 4 home in the William Hill Trophy (Chief Dan George, The Package and Offshore Account) which netted him a sizeable sum.

longshotvalue

Trends for cheltenham are as far as i see it.


1 Dont back irish favs (they are usually the wrong price) (same could be said of Nichols and Henderson this year as loads of their horses will be backed into the wrong price simply because of the trainer)

2 Course form
3 Course form
4 course Form
5 Festival Form
6 Festival Form

7-15 steer clear of Favs in general at the festival, they have a shocking racord.

geno

The Spinal Research Handicap Chase on day 1 (used to be the William Hill) is a really good trends race, these are the ones you want to follow on it

· Aged 7 or 8
· Irish bred
· Carrying 10-13 or less (but racing from inside the handicap)
· Officially rated 130 to 143
· Finished in first 3 last time (ideally won & posted highest RPR)
· Won over 3M+
· First or second season chaser
· Won 2 to 5 times over fences
· Won a class 3 or better handicap chase
· Won or placed in listed/graded chase
· Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 2)
· Priced 10/1 or below
· Trained by Nicky Henderson, Jonjo O’Neill or in Ireland

jimjackson

Check this site if your a statman.Click on individual races at the side for trends,stats and history.Hope it helps

http://www.cheltenhamfestival.net/

HigginsJ

I agree with AidanKKK

Course and Festival form are the most important things for me.

Not a huge believer in too many of the other stats. I wouldnt avoid and Irish favourite if i thought he was going to win.

Juwwi

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

Was going to bump last years thread about the Cheltenham trends but thought I'd get a new discussion going.

How much do you look at the trends when determining the horse you're going for? And what are the most important trends you look at when looking at a race?

For example I applied a lot of the trends I've seen online (still waiting on my Wetherby's Cheltenham Festival Guide to arrive!) and have picked Dunguib and Hurricane Fly as my two for the CH.

Hi unitedirishman surely Hurricane fly is one to avoid if your following trends.
He has no course form and a Montjeu horse has never won at cheltenham.
Good thread l like following trends for the big meetings.

geno

robbie1977 wrote: »

Hi unitedirishman surely Hurricane fly is one to avoid if your following trends.
He has no course form and a Montjeu horse has never won at cheltenham.
Good thread l like following trends for the big meetings.

There are some trends that are in Hurricane Fly's favour though, the winner of the previous season Punchestown champion hurdle has a cracking record in the Champion hurdle:

Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 11116 (4-0-5)

In last 10 years 4 of the 5 winners of Punchestown Champ hurdle to run in the big one at Cheltenham, won it and the only horse not to have gone on to win the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham next year was Solwhit in 2010 and he wasn't right when running in the Champion.

jimjackson

The festival is going to be twice as hard this year comparing irish and english form.The stats look to be a good safe guard.When the final entries are in place be good to see eilimination using the trends to see what we have left

chinguetti

Course form is the main thing you need to look at at the festival, even 2 or 3 years back in time.

Its an unique course, going up and down and always on the turn. Always remember listening to Charlie Swan years ago saying that you are constantly switching and turning.

I always remember the Johnny Giles quote about stats to Billo when he pointed out a list of stats why some team should win 'Soccer is played on grass Bill'.

UnitedIrishman

robbie1977 wrote: »

Hi unitedirishman surely Hurricane fly is one to avoid if your following trends.
He has no course form and a Montjeu horse has never won at cheltenham.
Good thread l like following trends for the big meetings.

That's true and I had eliminated him from my process until.. well it's explanatory below.. These were the trends I applied when looking at that race in particular (last years winner not included in stats):

- 23 of the last 27 winners won last time out.
- Only one five-year-old since 1985 has won.
- Just 3 winners have been older than eight since 1951.
- 16 of the last 22 winners had won at Cheltenham before.
- 18 of the last 20 winners started in the first 6 in the betting.
- Irish trained horses have won 7 of the last 12 runnings.
- Raced within 51 days of race
- 9 of the last 11 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 hurdle that season
- 9+ career hurdle runs

Dunguib – 8/9; Hurricane Fly - 8/9; Binocular – 8/9; Peddlars Cross – 7/9; Oscar Whiskey – 6/9; Menorah 6/9.

Now I wouldn't be a big one for trends normally, just interesting to see how they work out when applied especially in the handicaps. HF's only downfall is course form which could be a major factor of course.

The festival is going to be twice as hard this year comparing irish and english form.The stats look to be a good safe guard.When the final entries are in place be good to see eilimination using the trends to see what we have left

Agreed with this x 10. Hard to know what has beaten what in terms of quality.

mike65

Just looked through last years results, a horror show for the real shorties bar Big Bucks and Quevega. The average winning price (bookies) was about 15s

Juwwi

I copied this from another site as I taught it was interesting about Arkle winners running in the Champion Chase the next year.


2009 - Forpadydeplasterer 2ND - 2010 QM
2008 - Tidal Bay NO - out of sorts 2009 season
2007 - My Way de Solzen WON - ANOTHER RACE - WORLD HDLE 2008
2006 - Voy Por Ustedes WON - 2007 QM
2005 - Contraband NO - did not run chelt 2006
2004 - Well Chief 2ND - 2005 QM
2003 - Azertyuiop WON - 2004 QM
2002 - Moscow Flyer WON - 2003 QM
2000 - Tiutchev NO RACE FOOT & MOUTH 2001
1999 - Flagship Uberalles 3RD - 2000 QM
1998 - Champleve NO - no runs next season
1997 - Or Royal 2ND - 1998 QM
1996 - Ventana Canyon NO - no runs next season
1995 - Klairon Davis WON - 1996 QM
1994 - Nakir 3RD - 1995 QM
1993 - Travado 2ND - 1994 QM
1992 - Young Pokey NO - 4th grand annual 1993
1991 - Remittance Man WON - 1992 QM
1990 - Comandante NO - no runs 1991 onwards
1989 - Waterloo Boy 2ND - 1990 QM

5 - wins
7 - Places
4 - did not run chelt next season
2 ran other races next season 1 WON - other was 4th
1 - completely out of sorts next season.
1 - no run due to foot and mouth

2010 ARKLE Result - Sizing Europe Won- Somersby was a fast finishing 2nd
Somersby ran a good 2nd recently to Masterminded
Sizing has been tried over various distances this season and his other entries at Cheltenham have been scrapped he is going for the Queen Mother - Please note Sizing Europe was a rare 8yo winner of the Arkle so maybe a question mark regarding age - I like the look of Somersby who seems to be improving - place prospects both horses but if race does not pan out for front two in the betting then a chance of win.

hucklebuck

The stats most important for me are:

1st - Course record
2nd - Distance record
3rd - Is yard in form
4th - Does the horse stay up
5th - Going record
6th - Rating - is this higher than the horse has won at, if so is it improving?
7th - Weight - has horse won with this weight before


I don't pay huge attention to their recent form, if the horse is 678 in last three it won't put me off.

realdanbreen

The main factor I take into consideration is the hill.
As for betting I've found E/W Trixies give thje best value.

UnitedIrishman

Going on the Wetherby's Trends Book, here would be the selections for tomorrow - will see how they do in the grand scheme of things:

Supreme Novices: Last time out winner; run in last 6 weeks; bigger than 3/1; Irish trained => Magens Star or Rathlin.

Arkle: Rated over 142; Had won a Novice Chase by Tingle Creek Day; Finished 1st or 2nd last time out; oppose 5-year-olds and favourites; respect top rated hurdler; 2-4th in market => Finians Rainbow.

Stewart Handicap Chase: rated no higher than 143; won last time out; placed at festival before => ?? Bensalem/Wolf Moon closest maybe?

Champion Hurdle: Won at Cheltenham before; ran in same calendar year; won last time out; 6 or 7 year old; top six of betting => Oscar Whiskey or Peddlars Cross.

Cross Country Chase: Enda Bolger trained; first three in betting; contested cross country race before; 8 year old or over => Garde Champetre or L'Ami.

Centenary Novices: won no more than once over fences; beaten on first two chase starts; first or second last time out; rated between 133-139 => Rougham or Definity.