Were you suprised at Finna Fails 17% share of the vote?

SparkyTech

Personaly speaking, with previous polls before the election putting them bewtween 12-14% of the overall majority, I was suprised to find they still garnerd 17% of the overall vote share. Granted, 19 seats compared to the 74 FG gained is still quite paltry, but it beggers the question how a substantial portion of the Irish population voted for a party supposedly at the brink of collapse....its still a significant number?

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Sir Oxman

Labour won 37 on 19.4% which is a fantastic return
FF won 19 on 17.4%

BTW, FG's 76 won on 36.1% is stunning as is SF's 14 won on 9.9%

FF definitely have a problem in the future with transfers which they will need in any future election as a small party under the current system.

jmayo

SparkyTech wrote: »

Personaly speaking, with previous polls before the election putting them bewtween 12-14% of the overall majority, I was suprised to find they still garnerd 17% of the overall vote share. Granted, 19 seats compared to the 74 FG gained is still quite paltry, but it beggers the question how a substantial portion of the Irish population voted for a party supposedly at the brink of collapse....its still a significant number?

I am actually suprised they didn't get more votes.
This is Ireland after all where cute hoors are normally rewarded.

Hell lowry and o'dea are still in there, although the latter got a kick in ar** and knocked off top spot.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Laminations

I'm not surprised, tripe tends to stick together. I am disappointed though, I'm not as optimistic now that Ireland has politically turned a corner because both of these reasons (blind loyalty and parochialism) are anathema to a progressive healthy democracy.

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

RandolphEsq

I think you can throw in another reason FF got votes for the attitude 'Kenny is a bollox, SF are terrorists'

OhNoYouDidn't

The pre election polls stated that they were bumping FF as people wouldn't publically admit to voting for them, but would in the privacy of the booth. The pollsters underestimated that effect. So I am not suprised nationally, but am surprised at some of the individuals who got humiliated.

I know of a number of older FF voters who simply didn't vote this time out rather than tick for the mortal enemy.

gandalf

I was surprised it went as low at 17%, because I am an ageing cynic I was fully expecting it to hit the early 20's. Unless they have a spectacular comeback at the next local elections I expect them to become a fringe party in Ireland now. FG have temporarily picked up some of their voters but as time goes on SF will become more palatable to the electorate and they will replace FF as the party of choice for a lot of people who previously would have given their 1st preference to the Soldiers of Development.

mike65

As above, if anything 17% was a bit on the low side of what was likely. There is a generation who will never ever vote another way, at best they'll stay home and many did do I'm sure. Willie O'Dea was mentioned well he got in on a much reduced vote (6956 first pref vote 16.1%) having been a poll topper for years (19082 in 2007), that he had so much "slack" to take up and being Mr Limerick probably saved him.

Sir Oxman

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Well if that is true, it is indeed a 'stunning' result for SF.
They have over trebled (almost quadrupled) their seat total compared to 2007 whilst not even doubling their FPV - and very close to another 2/3 seats missing out by a few hundred votes.
FF are the lepers of Irish elections now and hopefully in the future, with more revelations of their incompetence and mismanagement being revealed.

Don't let any hatred for SF cloud your judgment. We're talking facts and figures here.
John Bowman was very fulsome in his praise of their achievment in GE2011, for instance.

They are increasingly transfer friendly if compared to 2007 when they completely underachieved based on FPV and were truly transfer toxic.

That 17.4% and 19 seats is very worrying for FF's future - that's what is called transfer toxic.

delta720

gandalf wrote: »

I was surprised it went as low at 17%, because I am an ageing cynic I was fully expecting it to hit the early 20's. Unless they have a spectacular comeback at the next local elections I expect them to become a fringe party in Ireland now. FG have temporarily picked up some of their voters but as time goes on SF will become more palatable to the electorate and they will replace FF as the party of choice for a lot of people who previously would have given their 1st preference to the Soldiers of Development.

Very wishful thinking, a lot of people are 'lending' their vote to other partys. There's no doubt about it FF will be back. And as for this 'rise' of SF, while Gerry may have gotten 21% of the FPV (in Louth) the majority of the other 79% are of the 'never in my life vote SF' category.

This isn't just me saying that, facebook was awash with comments such as 'I'm ashamed to be from Louth' after Gerry's result.

Yous can believe what you want here on the politics (SF) forum, but the reality is very different on the ground.

Sir Oxman

delta720 wrote: »

Very wishful thinking, a lot of people are 'lending' their vote to other partys. There's no doubt about it FF will be back. And as for this 'rise' of SF, while Gerry may have gotten 21% of the FPV (in Louth) the majority of the other 79% are of the 'never in my life vote SF' category.

This isn't just me saying that, facebook was awash with comments such as 'I'm ashamed to be from Louth' after Gerry's result.

Yous can believe what you want here on the politics (SF) forum, but the reality is very different on the ground.

I think there are two things at play in your own constituency's example - Adams is particularly divisive therefore he will get huge personal support and conversely have a large amount of voters saying 'never' to him.
The key thing to watch out for from this election is that SF are getting transfers from across the spectrum - it is a reversal from 2007.

I don't think Facebook being awash with anything is much of anything to be honest.

Your last comment is a bit childish, IMO.

OhNoYouDidn't

delta720 wrote: »

Very wishful thinking, a lot of people are 'lending' their vote to other partys. There's no doubt about it FF will be back. And as for this 'rise' of SF, while Gerry may have gotten 21% of the FPV (in Louth) the majority of the other 79% are of the 'never in my life vote SF' category.

This isn't just me saying that, facebook was awash with comments such as 'I'm ashamed to be from Louth' after Gerry's result.

Yous can believe what you want here on the politics (SF) forum, but the reality is very different on the ground.

Thats an entirely contradictory post.

Those who didn't vote SF did so out of staunch ideology and never will but those who didn't vote FF will do so in the future?

No anti-FF stuff on Facebook? Like thats an arbitrator of anything.

gandalf

delta720 wrote: »

Very wishful thinking, a lot of people are 'lending' their vote to other partys. There's no doubt about it FF will be back. And as for this 'rise' of SF, while Gerry may have gotten 21% of the FPV (in Louth) the majority of the other 79% are of the 'never in my life vote SF' category.

This isn't just me saying that, facebook was awash with comments such as 'I'm ashamed to be from Louth' after Gerry's result.

Yous can believe what you want here on the politics (SF) forum, but the reality is very different on the ground.

Ask anyone on this forum I would not be considered pro SF at all. But I am mature enough to see that they are becoming more voter friendly especially over the next couple of forthcoming elections as the electoral age profile becomes younger.

Also if in the future their economic policies decide to progress beyond the kindergarten stage of development expect a lot more people to consider SF strongly as an option. I do believe that FF's future is tied to SF's now, if SF get more popular then FF will whither and go into the wilderness. The bad news for Michael Martin is that SF now have a very big platform to build from especially in Dublin where the only FF representative is a discredited former worst finance minister in Europe who we now find out held up a report that proved the FF Cabinets in the last few governments ignored their civil servants advice on the economy until after the election.

Finally this forum would not be considered SF friendly at all, in fact over the years there has been complaints from numerous SF supporters that the forum is in fact biased against SF so please do not throw that in our faces. (I used to be a moderator on this forum up until a couple of years ago).

rumour

gandalf wrote: »

I was surprised it went as low at 17%, because I am an ageing cynic I was fully expecting it to hit the early 20's. Unless they have a spectacular comeback at the next local elections I expect them to become a fringe party in Ireland now. FG have temporarily picked up some of their voters but as time goes on SF will become more palatable to the electorate and they will replace FF as the party of choice for a lot of people who previously would have given their 1st preference to the Soldiers of Development.

I agree with you here. My opinion is that SF have a long term strategy. This election campaign for them was mounted on very simple messages of citizen,republic and rights. Not a word about responsibilities...this is generally what people like to hear. As the mess of our economy unfolds and we wither sort of like death by a thousand cuts SF will look increasingly attractive.

As for FF I find it simply incredible that nearly 1 in 5 Irish voters supported a party that has brankrupted the country. Quite astonishing really one wonders how they could be so irresponsible.

Oh there I go talking about responsibilities...... boring

delta720

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

Thats an entirely contradictory post.

Those who didn't vote SF did so out of staunch ideology and never will but those who didn't vote FF will do so in the future?

No anti-FF stuff on Facebook? Like thats an arbitrator of anything.

Yes basicly, in this election a lot of peoples votes were anyone but FF. But in future FF will again be considered a option for people based on whatever policy's they will have. SF on the other hand will always have votes from their core supporters but will never be a realistic option for most people based on their policy's and particularly in the border regions, their history.

Yes that facebook comment seemed childish, but my point was that most young people in their early 20's in the border counties still have the same pro/anti - SF divide of their parents.

In short my opinion is that FF will be back based on the fact they are a party with realistic (if not always correct) policys, they are not popular now but that will be forgotten when people realise the new government can't save the day overnight (as in the Obama syndrome).
SF on the other hand won't make much further gains as long as they keep their 'core republican values' at the centre of all their policys. In addition to that I don't think the turnout will be as high in the next election and SF generally find it difficult to get their potential voters actually out voting.

Laminations

rumour wrote: »

As for FF I find it simply incredible that nearly 1 in 5 Irish voters supported a party that has brankrupted the country.

Yes but thank karma, its now looking like the country has bankrupted FF

http://www.herald.ie/national-news/cash-crisis-looms-for-debthit-ff-as-euro10m-funding-lost-2560411.html

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Denerick

I was incredibly surprised that FF only got 20 seats. I was certain the Irish people would revert to form, unable to vote out their tormenters, and that FF would eventually get around 40 seats. I didn't take the opinion polls very seriously. The high turnout definately helped.

Its great to see the hanafins, the Coughlans and one of the Lenihens out of office. Down with dynasty, a perniciously ugly aspect of Irish politics. The fact that Mary Coughlan was Tanaiste was reason enough to punish FF in this election. Such an imbecile.

Laminations

Denerick wrote: »

I was incredibly surprised that FF only got 20 seats. I was certain the Irish people would revert to form, unable to vote out their tormenters, and that FF would eventually get around 40 seats. I didn't take the opinion polls very seriously. The high turnout definately helped.

Yeah its amazing to see that some of the more vocal defenders of FF, those who swore that the FF election machine would eat us all and they'd show us all up, have fallen deftly silent post-election.

StudentDad

If I had my way they wouldn't have gotten any seats in the Dail. I wouldn't trust them to empty my bins for me every week!

I was half afraid coming up to the election that there would be enough sheep in the country to give them a shot at running the country again.

SD

Denerick

Laminations wrote: »

Yeah its amazing to see that some of the more vocal defenders of FF, those who swore that the FF election machine would eat us all and they'd show us all up, have fallen deftly silent post-election.

Who?

I've been saying for over a year that FF are directly the fault of the Irish people (A nation of cretins) and that all of their economic mismanagement was directly attributable to a mandate given them by an unvirtuous and small minded citizenry.

Politicians are like dogs. If you train them well, they won't bite you. If you train them badly they'll **** all over your house.

OhNoYouDidn't

delta720 wrote: »

Yes basicly, in this election a lot of peoples votes were anyone but FF. But in future FF will again be considered a option for people based on whatever policy's they will have. SF on the other hand will always have votes from their core supporters but will never be a realistic option for most people based on their policy's and particularly in the border regions, their history.

Yes that facebook comment seemed childish, but my point was that most young people in their early 20's in the border counties still have the same pro/anti - SF divide of their parents.

In short my opinion is that FF will be back based on the fact they are a party with realistic (if not always correct) policys, they are not popular now but that will be forgotten when people realise the new government can't save the day overnight (as in the Obama syndrome).
SF on the other hand won't make much further gains as long as they keep their 'core republican values' at the centre of all their policys. In addition to that I don't think the turnout will be as high in the next election and SF generally find it difficult to get their potential voters actually out voting.

But you are ignoring the fact that there is an ideological reason people don't vote FF, especially in Dublin. As there is FG, Labour, Greens. SF don't have a monopoly on dividing the electorate.

But the key difference is SF are moving away from the past that has held them back electorally. FF's troubles are only beginning. The reason they were able to stay in power is because they could wield influence. Now they can't.

KrazeeEyezKilla

You can't really compare FF's result this time to Fine Gael in 2002. After that election Fine Gael were still the second largest party, had 13 more TD's and a larger share of the vote. They were largely seen with indifference and not hated like FF are now. The Labour party were willing to work with FG to get into Government. Now Sinn Fein will be trying to overtake FF. Also FG were used to long spells in opposition and had poor results before (only 45 TD's when they were last in power), FF have never experienced a hammering before. They are used to being in power with the occasional short spell in opposition as the largest party. I'm not sure how they would cope being a small party. Listening to them over the past few days shows they still have that mixture of arrogance & self pity and fully expect to be back within a few years. I don't see how the next generation will be any better. It seems to be mostly the older generation FFer's who are disgusted with what happened, the next crop are people who came in during the Bertie years and presumably have similar ideals. Also there will be a time when SF will be led by people who won't have any connection to violence.

Sir Oxman

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Sorry, still can't multiquote!

delta720

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

But you are ignoring the fact that there is an ideological reason people don't vote FF, especially in Dublin. As there is FG, Labour, Greens. SF don't have a monopoly on dividing the electorate.

But the key difference is SF are moving away from the past that has held them back electorally. FF's troubles are only beginning. The reason they were able to stay in power is because they could wield influence. Now they can't.

No there's not an ideological reason people don't vote FF. People didn't vote FF in this election based on FF's last run in government. It's completely different to the reason people don't vote SF.

My point has been that while SF are trying to move away from the past it is not washing with most voters. While many voters may at different stages of their life may vote FG, LAB, FF and an independent the majority of people will never vote SF.

FF will bounce back if only for the reason that there has to be another option than a FG/LAB government. If this new government don't perform there is every possibility that FF will be in the next government. Anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves. I'm just defending the point that it's a very likely possibility, while the majority of people here seem to be pushing that it's the end of FF.

It will be interesting to bump this thread in 4 or 5 years time and see how thing have actually turned out!

jmayo

Laminations wrote: »

Yeah its amazing to see that some of the more vocal defenders of FF, those who swore that the FF election machine would eat us all and they'd show us all up, have fallen deftly silent post-election.

Just thinking that myself.
At least it might cut down on all those private message si was getting from the mods.

Permabear i think mentioned the smilarities between FGs metldown in 2002 and ff in 2011.

There may be some smilarities, but there are some major differences.
FG were not seen as the ones that landed the country in such a mess.
FG did not have a coterie of recent ex members who are basically seen as arrogant self serving incompetent leeching bast***s by a huge chunk of the electorate.

FG had the ability to dig themselves out of debt, whereas the usual cash cow for ff, the builders/developers, are now either really bankrupt or too busy trying to hide their loot before initating bankruptcy.
If FG bring in a ban on corporate donations it would really hamstrung ff going forward and I reckon it is one of the main reasons Kenny has come out in favour of it.

Added to that it remains to be seen if martin is as willing as Kenny to drag his ass aorund the country trying to gee up the grassroots and putting new young candidates in place.

So ff will have much harder time rebuilding than FG did.
They will rebound, but unless people totally forget I can't see them getting above 40 seats for a good while.

OhNoYouDidn't

delta720 wrote: »

No there's not an ideological reason people don't vote FF.

Wrong. Plain and simple. So the rest of your hypothisis fails.

steelcityblues

I was pleasantly surprised it wasn't higher!