Rotten Boroughs

paul71

Something that struck me during the election count and I had noticed in past elections was the difference in the size of quotas in certain constituancies. I mentioned it here during the counting but said I would bring it up after the count was concluded, hence this post.

Anyway I have compiled the list of quotas in each constituancy and find that mean is 10500 to 11500 for each dail seat. Several do exceed this most notable Louth which has a quota 13864, this is due to the CC being returned automathically there. The there are 5 other constituancies with Quotas over 12000 all rural.

On the other end we have 7 constituancies with Quotas below 9000 all urban. Now someone mentioned earlier that urban areas have a lower turnout, but their arguement was based on the electoral roll verus the turnout which is in fact how the quota is decided so I cant accept the analysis without evidence. In addition another urban area ie the cork cork city constituancies have quotas that fall within the mean, so I can only conclude that something else is happening.

I suspect that Dublin Corporation and Limerick city council have been so negligent in their duty of maintaining the electorial roll that 7 of the countries constituancies are now rotten borroughs where people in effect have 1.5 votes as oppossed to every elses 1.

These constituancies are as follows with their dail quotas

Dublin Central 6923
Dublin Mid West 8545
Dublin North West 8203
Dublin South Cen 8488
Dublin South East 6984
Dublin West 8495
Limerick City 8638

I am basing my assumption that it is a fault of the electorial role because other Dublin Constituancies outside the control of Dublin city council have quotas that lie within the national average.

vetinari

That's a good point. 6923 is very low for a quota when you consider multiple constituencies hover around 11000 to 12000. I have to say I'm surprised that it is the urban constituencies that are over represented.

Sponge Bob

We had the rotten borough of Dublin West in 2007 as well. You are conflating the tendency of country people to carry out their civic duty with serious statistical anomalies all the same.

Even if every constituency were perfectly averaged for population the turnout would always be higher where a more elderly rural population constituted a higher proportion of the electorate.

Furthermore there are more foreigners who cannot vote in inner cities. ( Many can in local elections and Euros) While TDs represent specific populations of around 20000-30000 persons each the fact is that only Irish and UK citizens among those populations are entitled to vote for them and then they must also be 18.

paul71

Sponge Bob wrote: »

We had the rotten borough of Dublin West in 2007 as well. You are conflating the tendency of country people to carry out their civic duty with serious statistical anomalies all the same.

Even if every constituency were perfectly averaged for population the turnout would always be higher where a more elderly rural population constituted a higher proportion of the electorate.

Furthermore there are more foreigners who cannot vote in inner cities. ( Many can in local elections and Euros) While TDs represent specific populations of around 20000-30000 persons each the fact is that only Irish and UK citizens among those populations are entitled to vote for them and then they must also be 18.

The population of non nationals clearly has nothing to do with the electoral role.

Secondly I might except the point of rural vs urban tendancy to vote if it was borne out in all urban but it is not, look at Dublin North, Dublin South, Dunlaorghaire and Cork.

I think it is clearly a problem within the dept responsible for accuracy of the role in Dublin city council and Limerick.

Sponge Bob

paul71 wrote: »

The population of non nationals clearly has nothing to do with the electoral role.

Eh????? Read the constitution willya. :mad:

paul71

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Eh????? Read the constitution willya. :mad:

Read the post willya.

Non nationals are not on the electoral role for the dail therefore have nothing to do with the quota required to elect a TD. The number of TDs allocated to a constituancy is based on the number of eligable electors registered in the constituancy, ergo my point the electoral role is inaccurate and these constituancies are overrepresented.

If there were 2,000,000 non nationals not eligable to vote living in Dublin Central, it would not make the slightest difference to the Dail electoral role.

Ray Burkes Pension

A huge amount of people live in Dublin but go back "home" to vote.
If the electoral register was sorted out (with voted tied to a pps number address) then you'd see a reduction of rural votes and people voting where they live.

paul71

Ray Burkes Pension wrote: »

A huge amount of people live in Dublin but go back "home" to vote.
If the electoral register was sorted out (with voted tied to a pps number address) then you'd see a reduction of rural votes and people voting where they live.

Now this is exactly what I think is the real reason.:)

I think a large proportion of the Urban population being from the country actually want to vote in their home constituancy. However they also register in Dublin in order to vote in local elections, not realising that they a creating the problem of overrepresention in the their Dublin constituancy for Dail elections, and I think you have hit on the solution too using PPS numbers as a central database to ensure they are not registered twice.

syklops

And a robber button is?

Sponge Bob

paul71 wrote: »

The number of TDs allocated to a constituancy is based on the number of eligable electors registered in the constituancy,.

READ THE CONSTITUTION WILLYA Like I told you to before. That sentence is complete tosh.

And the word is spelt "roll"

Victor

syklops wrote: »

And a robber button is?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rotten_and_pocket_boroughs

paul71 wrote: »

The number of TDs allocated to a constituancy is based on the number of eligable electors registered in the constituancy

No, it is based on population. As not everyone can vote, there will be a difference between population and registered electorate, based on the number of unregistered people, including people under 18, people not eligible to register based on nationality, etc.

Regarding quotas, you are again wrong. Quota is merely a tool to decide who has the most first preferences. As constituencies have different sizes and quota is based on n+1, where n is the number of seats, then using the quota as a determinant of representation is inaccurate. In a five-seater, you need 16.7% to get elected, in a four-seater 20% and in a three-seater 25%.

Further, working class, especially lower working class areas tend to have a lower turn-out. This is known internationally. Dublin North, South and Dun Laoghaire are very much not working class.

Based on the 2006 census, all constituencies have a population per TD between 24,000 and 27,769 people, as detailed in the second appendix here: http://www.constituency-commission.ie/docs%5Ccon2007.pdf