Will Fine Gael collapse with 6 months.

Mac Cormaic

Seeing that Fine Gael will have to make € 9 billion euro in cuts by next December to reduce government spending and start paying off the interest on IMF/EU loan, what are their chances of surviving large scale protest.

They will have no choice but to cut Public Sector wages, welfare and pension payments, while introducing new taxes. Its also likely they'll have to bail out the banks by another € 20 billion this year alone, while more young people will emigrate and more businesses will shut down.

Will the English Queen's visit to Dublin in May, and the likely violent backlash by Gardaí against protestors be the start of Fine Gael's collapse? Its an absolute fact that they can't deliver on their election promises.

Daniel S

No.

SamSamSammy

agree with you they will collapse like a deck of cards. but it will probably take longer than 6 months......

imme

OP, do you mean the party Fine Gael or the likely government?

No, I don't see the forthcoming collapsing within 6 months.

Why do you expect that the visit of QE2 will mean violence, sure it's just the neighbour calling round for a cup of tea:D

Absurdum

I think the vast majority of voters know what's coming, unlike previous elections where empty promises were what won a lot of votes, so no.

Daniel S

imme wrote: »

Why do you expect that the visit of QE2 will mean violence, sure it's just the neighbour calling round for a cup of tea:D

The neighbour that stole your land, killed your fellow countrymen, almost destroyed our (second) language.



Tea's at six o' clock.

Mac Cormaic

mtb_kng wrote: »

No.

Why not. Fine Gael will have to cut Public Sector wages by 10% to mean EU budget demands and to repay the EU/IMF loans. Do you think the 450,000 Public Sector workers, are just going to sit back and say "hey thats what we voted for"?

Daniel S

Mac Cormaic wrote: »

Why not. Fine Gael will have to cut Public Sector wages by 10% to mean EU budget demands and to repay the EU/IMF loans. Do you think the 450,000 Public Sector workers, are just going to sit back and say "hey thats what we voted for"?

You asked would it collapse with in 6 months. It won't. If it does it will take longer.

questionmark?

Mac Cormaic wrote: »

Why not. Fine Gael will have to cut Public Sector wages by 10% to mean EU budget demands and to repay the EU/IMF loans. Do you think the 450,000 Public Sector workers, are just going to sit back and say "hey thats what we voted for"?

Hopefully there will be a lot less of the non-front line public sector workers by the time FG is finished with them. No frontline cuts should be made though.

edit: OP ans is NO!

imme

mtb_kng wrote: »

The neighbour that stole your land, killed your fellow countrymen, almost destroyed our (second) language.



Tea's at six o' clock.

here we go again, this is all very off topic, you know:cool: :P

'we' killed a few of her kids as well, metaphorically speaking.

gcgirl

nope they are getting their SSIA money back and sooo much more

Mac Cormaic

questionmark? wrote: »

Hopefully there will be a lot less of the non-front line public sector workers by the time FG is finished with them. No frontline cuts should be made though.

edit: OP ans is NO!

I agree they will probably cut about 30,000 public workers, through redundancy packages, but I'm not to sure that will make things any more effective. And then of course thats 30,000 new people on the dole, plus a billion or so more needed to pay off the workers.

Aka Ishur

Mac Cormaic wrote: »

Why not. Fine Gael will have to cut Public Sector wages by 10% to mean EU budget demands and to repay the EU/IMF loans. Do you think the 450,000 Public Sector workers, are just going to sit back and say "hey thats what we voted for"?

So whats the plan? Bring down every government til we get one that doesnt make the cuts, let everybody be happy for the 3 months it takes for the country to run out of cash? 450000 homeless sounds awesome.

dudara

I think that, if they form a coalition government with Labour, it will collapse quite quickly, probably mainly due to Labour's conflicting ideas with FG. This may result in another FG bounce, giving them an overall majority*.

*just speculation on my part, but i think that FG will need an overall majority to effectively make the necessary changes. Labour will be a hindrance.

Shane M

Well this is a disgrace. The people vote to get FF out when the country starts to on the up again and they now realise when its too late that ass**** Kenny will do absolutely nothing to get the country going.... Good enough for the people!!!

Mac Cormaic

Aka Ishur wrote: »

So whats the plan? Bring down every government til we get one that doesnt make the cuts, let everybody be happy for the 3 months it takes for the country to run out of cash? 450000 homeless sounds awesome.

How will there be 450,000 homeless? Ireland has in excess of 200,000 empty homes. I'm sure the banks would really see it logical to throw everyone out of their homes, and just let them lie empty as ghost estates. In reality there will eventually need to be a morgage write-down, or currency devaluation.

As with regards the country been empty of cash, the country only € 20 billion to circulate 7 times on an annual basis. Our exports are stronger than our imports, so the economic problem is principally a domestic one.

Last year € 90 billion in deposits were taken out of our banks, and taken out of the country. The same will happen again this year, making economic recovery impossible.

The sole solution is to print an internal currency of € 20 billion that cannot leave the state, and let it be used alongside the Euro, in the same way Sterling is in the North.

That will help solve the domestic economy, secure jobs, and allow for increase exports. It will also provide exchequer funds to pay welfare and wages; while the currency can be withdrawn after five years to rebalance the tills.

Either that or we'll face economic ruin as Ireland owes € 1.3 trillion internationally. Fine Gael (with no bias against them), are not capable of making that economic decision.

There solution is to sell off State assets to buy themselves a little time.

johngalway

Mac Cormaic wrote: »

or currency devaluation.

Would you mind telling me the current year please?

nommm

Lets hope not. I'm not a supporter of FG but the last thing this country needs is another failed government.

Mac Cormaic

johngalway wrote: »

Would you mind telling me the current year please?

Yes force the Euro to be devalued. Why should the Irish people live in economic poverty to suit the French and Germans.

johngalway

Mac Cormaic wrote: »

Yes force the Euro to be devalued. Why should the Irish people live in economic poverty to suit the French and Germans.

Why do a group of ten usually beat one in a fist fight?

Lawrence1895

At some stage, we will all find out, how good FG are. I would not make any decisions yet. But if they lie as I fear they do, then good night, Vienna :mad:

Aka Ishur

Mac Cormaic wrote: »

How will there be 450,000 homeless? Ireland has in excess of 200,000 empty homes. I'm sure the banks would really see it logical to throw everyone out of their homes, and just let them lie empty as ghost estates. In reality there will eventually need to be a morgage write-down, or currency devaluation.

As with regards the country been empty of cash, the country only € 20 billion to circulate 7 times on an annual basis. Our exports are stronger than our imports, so the economic problem is principally a domestic one.

Last year € 90 billion in deposits were taken out of our banks, and taken out of the country. The same will happen again this year, making economic recovery impossible.

The sole solution is to print an internal currency of € 20 billion that cannot leave the state, and let it be used alongside the Euro, in the same way Sterling is in the North.

That will help solve the domestic economy, secure jobs, and allow for increase exports. It will also provide exchequer funds to pay welfare and wages; while the currency can be withdrawn after five years to rebalance the tills.

Either that or we'll face economic ruin as Ireland owes € 1.3 trillion internationally. Fine Gael (with no bias against them), are not capable of making that economic decision.

There solution is to sell off State assets to buy themselves a little time.

So much in here that is retreading ground covered in other threads - but i'll half bite. All I'll say is

1) The banks have to take houses off people who dont pay their mortgage - else they would face an epidemic of non repayement.

2) The internal currency is so rediculous i'll not even going to touch. Look up the numerous threads that have posited the same theory over the last 18 months.

Mac Cormaic

johngalway wrote: »

Why do a group of ten usually beat one in a fist fight?

Because the one didn't have a grenade in his hand to even up the odds

johngalway

Mac Cormaic wrote: »

Because the one didn't have a grenade in his hand to even up the odds

Ah no, not another "SF will solve all our problems" thread :pac:

The Waltzing Consumer

Shane M wrote: »

Well this is a disgrace. The people vote to get FF out when the country starts to on the up again and they now realise when its too late that ass**** Kenny will do absolutely nothing to get the country going.... Good enough for the people!!!

The FF amnesia in full strength :rolleyes:. The worst part, enough stupid people believe this nonsense and will allow FF to regroup

Aka Ishur

johngalway wrote: »

Ah no, not another "SF will solve all our problems" thread :pac:

I lol'd

Mac Cormaic

Aka Ishur wrote: »

So much in here that is retreading ground covered in other threads - but i'll half bite. All I'll say is

1) The banks have to take houses off people who dont pay their mortgage - else they would face an epidemic of non repayement.

2) The internal currency is so rediculous i'll not even going to touch. Look up the numerous threads that have posited the same theory over the last 18 months.

What will eventually happen with large scale morgade defaults, is that a Housing Executive will be set up by the government, where they will buy toxic morgages off the banks, and will become co-owners of houses, in the way the Councils give out loans at present.

While you may consider the internal currency ridiculous, when € 90 billion leaves the State in deposit withdrawal's in one year alone, something drastic needs to be done. In fact it could be the only way Ireland will remain solvent longterm.

Aishae

the majority of people seem to know what they voted for - knowing that life cant be perfect and hard decisions will have to follow. its also a bit early to say they'll collapse soon, when they arent even in the dail yet.

Mac Cormaic

johngalway wrote: »

Ah no, not another "SF will solve all our problems" thread :pac:

Far from it. While I may think Sinn Féin are genuine on trying to save the economy, I also believe they'd be totally incompetent in actually achieving that goal.

The only ones who are going to revive the Irish economy are manufacturers, who will create jobs in 'primary resource'. For that to be achieved I'd also argue that rates should be reduced on all manufacturing jobs by 70%, while employers PRSI would be totally abolished.

That would help reduce costs, make Irish products more competitive and increase production, allowing for economic growth.

Shane M

The Waltzing Consumer wrote: »

The FF amnesia in full strength :rolleyes:. The worst part, enough stupid people believe this nonsense and will allow FF to regroup

Someone obviously didn't read the future policy proposals of each government and decided to dwell on the past instead....cant deny they hadn't a better manifesto!!

johngalway

Not exactly sure on FG's employer PRSI stance, but I do believe I heard they were going to reduce it.

Manufacturing is dodgy ground. A lot of countries with significantly lower cost bases are all looking for a slice of that pie.

th3 s1aught3r

Mac Cormaic wrote: »

Will the English Queen's visit to Dublin in May, and the likely violent backlash by Gardaí against protestors be the start of Fine Gael's collapse?

Its comments like this that make me question the IQ of some people :rolleyes:

[Jackass]

Who gives a fu*k about the queen? She can visit our independent republic if she likes, I couldn't care less about her or what she stands for, it's time to move past that inferior chip on the shoulder ra face. The best form of revolt is to prosper.

As for the Government, there's no doubt FG have always played the lambs to slaughter when cleaning up FF's mess, but I think FF were SO blatant and arrogant by nearly bankruppting and collapsing the entire economy, that the public will have more understanding and sympathy than they ever did before. If they don't, then they're just idiots.

johngalway

[Jackass] wrote: »

If they don't, then they're just idiots.

I bet Paddy Power has better odds on the above.

maccored

Aishae wrote: »

the majority of people seem to know what they voted for - knowing that life cant be perfect and hard decisions will have to follow. its also a bit early to say they'll collapse soon, when they arent even in the dail yet.

I'd like to think they did, but I would guess they voted in FG and Labour thinking that they'll get us out of the **** FF have put us in. I wouldnt be surprised if people end up treating FG and whoever the next gov in the same way they treated FF in this election.

I stand by the theory that the majority of voters are too easily swayed by handy soundbites and simplified solutions and dont really understand the consequences of their voting. Until its too late of course. then they blame the people they last voted for.

Shane M

maccored wrote: »

I'd like to think they did, but I would guess they voted in FG and Labour thinking that they'll get us out of the **** FF have put us in. I wouldnt be surprised if people end up treating FG and whoever the next gov in the same way they treated FF in this election.

I stand by the theory that the majority of voters are too easily swayed by handy soundbites and simplified solutions and dont really understand the consequences of their voting. Until its too late of course. then they blame the people they last voted for.

Its a natural cycle!!

Da Shins Kelly

The coalition will probably collapse, but it will take longer than 6 months. The problems facing Ireland are going to take longer to solve than the time they're being given. They're going to be forced to make very unpopular decisions with regards to taxes, university fees, social welfare cuts, etc. and I think that will ultimately ruin their government. We're at the beginning of a global shift to the left anyway - the revolutions sweeping across the Middle East are a demonstration of people power. Science is going through a boom with people in support of things like stem cell research. More people than ever are pro-choice and supportive of gay marriage. Technology has completely changed the world. Things like Facebook have empowered people across the world - people can now see how others in different parts of the world live and realise how badly they're getting done by their own governments. The emergence of Wikileaks has also changed how people think about their own governments. The movies you watch, the books you read, the newspapers are all taking a left-wing slant. The world is changing, and soon it will reach Ireland. This government won't last long and the next election will see a huge increase in support for Labour and Sinn Fein, in my opinion.

timothybryce

Da Shins Kelly wrote: »

The coalition will probably collapse, but it will take longer than 6 months. The problems facing Ireland are going to take longer to solve than the time they're being given. They're going to be forced to make very unpopular decisions with regards to taxes, university fees, social welfare cuts, etc. and I think that will ultimately ruin their government. We're at the beginning of a global shift to the left anyway - the revolutions sweeping across the Middle East are a demonstration of people power. Science is going through a boom with people in support of things like stem cell research. More people than ever are pro-choice and supportive of gay marriage. Technology has completely changed the world. Things like Facebook have empowered people across the world - people can now see how others in different parts of the world live and realise how badly they're getting done by their own governments. The emergence of Wikileaks has also changed how people think about their own governments. The movies you watch, the books you read, the newspapers are all taking a left-wing slant. The world is changing, and soon it will reach Ireland. This government won't last long and the next election will see a huge increase in support for Labour and Sinn Fein, in my opinion.

I think FF will regroup and back in contention relatively quickly unfortunately, the Republicans will be back in control in the US at the next election and no left wing governments in the middle east.

Mac Cormaic

mtb_kng wrote: »

You asked would it collapse with in 6 months. It won't. If it does it will take longer.

I'd disagree for two reasons. Firstly if Fine Gael go into power with Independents they'll only have a government majority of 1 or 2 seats, which will be very fragile in terms of making cuts.

Secondly if they go into government with Labour, Labour will have to powerful a say with 36 or so TD's. And Labour know that if they side with Fine Gael on the cuts, they'll get slaughtered in the next election.

If Labour were smart (which its unlikely they are), they would let Fine Gael go in on their own with Independents, oppose the cuts, and then collapse the government by the next Budget.

Da Shins Kelly

timothybryce wrote: »

I think FF will regroup and back in contention relatively quickly unfortunately, the Republicans will be back in control in the US at the next election and no left wing governments in the middle east.

I don't think so. I wouldn't be too surprised to see Obama get another term. I agree there won't be any left-wing governments in the Middle East, it won't be that radical. But, Egypt have toppled and dictatorship and the Libyans are rising up too against oppression. That is people power, and certainly a step in the right direction for that part of the world. That is, in part, down to the profound impact of technology on the world. These people are able to see that their governments are not doing right by them.

irishh_bob

Mac Cormaic wrote: »

Seeing that Fine Gael will have to make € 9 billion euro in cuts by next December to reduce government spending and start paying off the interest on IMF/EU loan, what are their chances of surviving large scale protest.

They will have no choice but to cut Public Sector wages, welfare and pension payments, while introducing new taxes. Its also likely they'll have to bail out the banks by another € 20 billion this year alone, while more young people will emigrate and more businesses will shut down.

Will the English Queen's visit to Dublin in May, and the likely violent backlash by Gardaí against protestors be the start of Fine Gael's collapse? Its an absolute fact that they can't deliver on their election promises.

everything will be on the table bar touching the old age pension

StupidLikeAFox

I doubt it, if the FF government couldnt be forced out in the last year its hard to see the new government being forced out in 6 months. I mean, theres no alternative really, this govt was voted in with a certain mandate. That mandate isnt going to change for another few years, unlike the mandate that was handed to the last Dáil.

dudara wrote: »

I think that, if they form a coalition government with Labour, it will collapse quite quickly, probably mainly due to Labour's conflicting ideas with FG. This may result in another FG bounce, giving them an overall majority*.

*just speculation on my part, but i think that FG will need an overall majority to effectively make the necessary changes. Labour will be a hindrance.

I doubt it. Both parties will sit down and negotiate a program for government and they will both be politically savvy enough to work well together, or at least appear to work well together. It will be a very different coalition to the last few. I genuinely think that they have a desire to get the country back on track, as opposed to the last FF govt which was just hungry for power.

Sorry to keep dragging up the last govt, I realise its prob a bit old at this stage

Liam Byrne

I think most people with sense know that whoever got in things are going to be very tough.

The two issues in this election were :

1) FF had no credibility to suggest a way out, because of their actions that caused the crisis and their 2 years making it even worse

2) The existing mentality of FF which involves rewarding and paying off the incompetents while screwing the people

A coalition of FG & Labour would provide a strong counterbalance to both of the above.

Given that it was a choice of voting for "the best of a bad lot", though, I wouldn't go expecting miracles, and if people do then we could see them reacting badly.

We could also see the coalition screw it up for themselves by continuing to screw ordinary people; that remains to be seen, and there was no guarantee in relation to this, it was simply a case of voting for those that haven't done that, with a hope that that sentence doesn't require a "yet".

But if FG & Labour do screw it up that badly, it'll be time to shut up shop and move, so it won't make much difference.

Monty Burnz

If the next government does not see out its term, I reckon the country will collapse, never mind FG. Seriously, it's going to get extremely ugly - people will be longing for the days of 2010 when the IMF came along.

Fingers crossed it doesn't happen, but I think that most people still have no clue how screwed the country is by FFailure, and the mountain that whoever is in government will have to climb.

ultain

Labour?....My grannys arm-pit

Dionysus

Mac Cormaic wrote: »

Seeing that Fine Gael will have to make € 9 billion euro in cuts by next December to reduce government spending and start paying off the interest on IMF/EU loan, what are their chances of surviving large scale protest.

They will have no choice but to cut Public Sector wages, welfare and pension payments, while introducing new taxes. Its also likely they'll have to bail out the banks by another € 20 billion this year alone, while more young people will emigrate and more businesses will shut down.

Will the English Queen's visit to Dublin in May, and the likely violent backlash by Gardaí against protestors be the start of Fine Gael's collapse? Its an absolute fact that they can't deliver on their election promises.

I'd give them 13 months. For all the reasons you mentioned above, they are going to be fúcked. Interestingly, on the radio all day there was general agreement that "this Fine Gael-led government is going to be hated very quickly". They've made way too many promises in an election campaign which has been the most dishonest one in my lifetime.


There have been plenty of people on online fora deluding themselves about the brave new world which Fine Gael is allegedly going to bring. Nothing could be further from the truth. They'll be seen to be just as bad as Fianna Fáil very quickly. Fact.

Monty Burnz

Dionysus wrote: »

There have been plenty of people on online fora deluding themselves about the brave new world which Fine Gael is allegedly going to bring. Nothing could be further from the truth. They'll be seen to be just as bad as Fianna Fáil very quickly. Fact.

The difference is that they they won't be the ones ****ing things up, they will be hated for trying to put things right. And if they fail, we are totally screwed in a way that makes our current situation look quite comfy. The true damage that FFailure have done has yet to be felt.

ultain

Mad Max...and we will be grand

Dionysus

th3 s1aught3r wrote: »

Its comments like this that make me question the IQ of some people :rolleyes:

Instead of making a personal attack on the intelligence of a poster, could you please explain why you think the visit of the British queen will not be a cause of rioting and dissension in this state, given what happened in the Love Ulster parade in February 2006?


The last time a member of the British royal family met a Fine Gael Taoiseach, the behaviour of the latter was widely considered to be a source of embarrassment. If this government repeats Bruton's stunt in the context of messing-up the economy/breaking their election promises (which is an absolute certainty) then that British royal visit will become one of the first nails in the coffin of the impending government.

ultain

Dionysus wrote: »

Instead of making a personal attack on the intelligence of a poster, could you please explain why you think the visit of the British queen will not be a cause of rioting and dissension in this state, given what happened in the Love Ulster parade in February 2006?


The last time a member of the British royal family met a Fine Gael Taoiseach, the behaviour of the latter was widely considered to be a source of embarrassment. If this government repeats Bruton's stunt in the context of messing-up the economy/breaking their election promises (which is an absolute certainty) then that British royal visit will become one of the first nails in the coffin of the impending government.

well most people appear to be happy having the Queen come over and say hi....kenny PR stunt an all that is..We gotta be Zen masters man & live in the now...like you know, k.

PeterIanStaker

I honestly don't know if they'll collapse in six months, but I feel that they'll be hard pushed to make a full term.