My Election Bets

JONJO THE MISER

Finally i can reveal my election bets, having never lost a election bet before im quiet confident.

€400 Voter Turnout 66% and under 7/2 taken 2 week ago(now suspended by ladbrokes)

€500 Fine Gael to win 72 seats or less 4/1 done today (now 10/3 with ladbrokes)

Kristopherus

You'll be OK on the turnout, but FG will get more than 72 seats.Best of luck, though.

dotsflan

mine is john leahy to get a seat in laois offaly @ 12/1 3 weeks ago. by no means a certainty but it was way too big a price for him hence he is 3/1 now

Juwwi

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Finally i can reveal my election bets, having never lost a election bet before im quiet confident.

€400 Voter Turnout 66% and under 7/2 taken 2 week ago(now suspended by ladbrokes)

€500 Fine Gael to win 72 seats or less 4/1 done today (now 10/3 with ladbrokes)

I was going to vote Fine Gael but now Im not going to vote at all and it will help both of your bets Jonjo .:D

I presume your not voting either ?

JONJO THE MISER

4/1 was great value now 10/3 for 72 or under for F.G, im putting them on 68-70 myself.
I think the big surge to F.G has been over rated and im looking forward to collecting my mulla.
As always ladbrokes traders havent got a clue when it come to politics, they had 66% and under turnout at 7/2 the cut it to 7/4 and now its EVS and all because of me as i have told a lot of people to back this.

baldbear

I think FG will get around 74 seats. 72 or over is 1/12 with PP and 68 to 71 is 6/1.

Luke Ming Flanagan was decent value during the week.

UrbanSea

Michael Colreavy to get in Sligo/Leitrim,120 at 9/4. Can't believe Powers still have him at that price lads,worth a bet if you're looking for one.
Leads the boards poll and Sligo Weekender polls have him a clear second. Word around town is good for him,and he'll get plenty of votes from the Sinn Fein people out in Manor and any around Sligo as he's the only candidate.

91011

€200 FF to win over 30 seats 5/2 PP from early last week. (now 1/1)
€600 FG to win 68-71 seats 10/1 Wednesday with PP (now 6/1)

Very difficult election to call. A lot of people placing bets without going through each constituency.

FG will get max 75 seats, min 66 seats. Irish Times calling it at 70. The real core FF vote will find the pen won't allow them put a number beside FG despite that their head tells them to do it. So a lot of last minute changes and sure to be some great surprises.

A lot of differences between Boyles & PP. E.G. PP are saying 2Lab + 2FG in Dun Laoghaire, whereas Boyle are saying 1FG, 1FF & 2 Lab. Dublin south, Boyles are saying FF for final seat, PP are saying Greens.

UrbanSea

Michael Colreavy is 1.16 with Ladbrokes,still 9/4 with PP.

JONJO THE MISER

:eek: Michael Healy Rae is Evs to win Kerry south with P.P, i think he has a 80% chance of winning a seat.
Going to put €300 on him at evs and thats it no more bets i swear:o
Really looking forward to tomorrow and winning a few thousand from Ladbrokes.
Good Luck with all your bets lads.

8-10

Simply €100 on Boyd Barrett in Dun Laoghaire @ 2/1 and €50 on Hanafin @evens.

Couldn't find value in the bigger markets and only know my constituency!

Dubol

8-10 wrote: »

Simply €100 on Boyd Barrett in Dun Laoghaire @ 2/1 and €50 on Hanafin @evens.

Couldn't find value in the bigger markets and only know my constituency!

"Bertie the Bookie" is odds on to take his seat at Fagans tonight.

Kristopherus

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

:eek: Michael Healy Rae is Evs to win Kerry south with P.P, i think he has a 80% chance of winning a seat.
Going to put €300 on him at evs and thats it no more bets i swear:o
Really looking forward to tomorrow and winning a few thousand from Ladbrokes.
Good Luck with all your bets lads.

Turnout is going to be high, going from early reports.

JONJO THE MISER

Kristopherus wrote: »

Turnout is going to be high, going from early reports.

Yeah it appears that way, oh well at least i got good value on it. Ive made a killing on political bets in the past few years was bound to loose one.

UrbanSea

Does seem high. It was over 50% at my local at about 7 o'clock

JONJO THE MISER

Im still very confident of of F.G getting 72 seats or less, i have studyied all cons and they will get 69-71, lots of independents will get elected mark my words.

JONJO THE MISER

Off to bed early day tomorrow what with being up at 8 for the rte exit poll and then all day election result coverage on rte, cant wait.

JONJO THE MISER

What did i tell ye guys, the F.G vote was over estimated thus making F.G 72 and under a near cert according to the rte exit poll, once again Jonjo strikes.

JONJO THE MISER

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

What did i tell ye guys, the F.G vote was over estimated thus making F.G 72 and under a near cert according to the rte exit poll, once again Jonjo strikes.

The poll suggests that FG will win 72 seats according to the times.

You do realise that it's an exit poll and there's a margin or error of 2.5%.

Transfers will be key.

The turnout will probably be over 66% too. You are looking at a €900 loss, am I missing something?

Finally i can reveal my election bets, having never lost a election bet before im quiet confident.

€400 Voter Turnout 66% and under 7/2 taken 2 week ago(now suspended by ladbrokes)

€500 Fine Gael to win 72 seats or less 4/1 done today (now 10/3 with ladbrokes

JONJO THE MISER

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

:eek: Michael Healy Rae is Evs to win Kerry south with P.P, i think he has a 80% chance of winning a seat.
Going to put €300 on him at evs and thats it no more bets i swear:o
Really looking forward to tomorrow and winning a few thousand from Ladbrokes.
Good Luck with all your bets lads.

Kerry South: With 39% of boxes tallied - Fleming 20.5%, Gleeson 15.2%, Griffen 9.1%, Healy Rae 12.6%, Molony 13.7%, ODonoghue 12.4% and Sheahan 15.3%.

8-10

8-10 wrote: »

Simply €100 on Boyd Barrett in Dun Laoghaire @ 2/1 and €50 on Hanafin @evens.

Couldn't find value in the bigger markets and only know my constituency!

RTEdúnlaoghaire: Full tally. Gilmore 20.16, Barrett 18.83, O'Connor 16, RBB 10.8, Bacik 10.46, Hanafin 9.17, Andrews 6.43, Cuffe 3.75

Hanafin worse than I thought, Mitchell-O'Connor polling well also. Think both my bets might be losers.

UrbanSea

My Colreavy bet is looking good,come on!!

UrbanSea

Aw I don't know anymore

8-10

Anyone have Fianna Fail for first seatscorer? 100% majority as it stands....

Cavehill Red

Paddypower offering 2/1 on Labour 37 seats or under. What am I missing here? Is this not buying money?
All the pundits reckon Labour are looking at mid 30s alright. So they may come close to 37, but 2/1 to stay under 38 seats looks great value.
4/5 on 75 seats plus for FG looks a little tasty too at this point. All odds current on in-running.

Sir Vival

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Paddypower offering 2/1 on Labour 37 seats or under. What am I missing here? Is this not buying money?
All the pundits reckon Labour are looking at mid 30s alright. So they may come close to 37, but 2/1 to stay under 38 seats looks great value.
4/5 on 75 seats plus for FG looks a little tasty too at this point. All odds current on in-running.

Just stuck a tenner on @15/8. Worth a shot according to RTE's expections. They're saying a lot will depend on the re-distribution of votes though which are difficult to project

8-10

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

What did i tell ye guys, the F.G vote was over estimated thus making F.G 72 and under a near cert according to the rte exit poll, once again Jonjo strikes.

Good job! Looks likely now. How is the turnout looking? I'm finding it difficult to find national predictions

3ndahalfof6

Cavehill Red wrote: »

Paddypower offering 2/1 on Labour 37 seats or under. What am I missing here? Is this not buying money?
All the pundits reckon Labour are looking at mid 30s alright. So they may come close to 37, but 2/1 to stay under 38 seats looks great value.
4/5 on 75 seats plus for FG looks a little tasty too at this point. All odds current on in-running.

on TV3 their saying LAB 42 seats,

Cavehill Red

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

on TV3 their saying LAB 42 seats,

I don't think anyone can be accurate about Lab's final numbers at this point. Anywhere from late twenties to mid forties is possible.
I just think that like the FG vote, it's been a bit overaccounted for. Labour will do well in Dublin, but not as well as was thought due to a very strong hard left performance. And down the country? It'll come down to transfers.
I still think anything over 11/8 for that bet looks like value. It's already closed slightly from 2/1 to 15/8 with PP, and the FG vote likewise has gone in from 4/5 to 4/7.

UrbanSea

8-10 wrote: »

Good job! Looks likely now. How is the turnout looking? I'm finding it difficult to find national predictions

Think I saw 73% earlier

JONJO THE MISER

Very Very tight lads a lot of the F.G seats are going to the wire, i think i can just about make the 72 seats or less.

cup of tea

backed griffin for a seat in S.Kerry @ 11-10 at first being the 5th fav for 3 seats. He's topping after the first count, only being around the 9/10% this morning in 5th postition but now looking very good.

UrbanSea

I'm ****ting it here.

Vurnon San Benito

Fine Gael expected to hit around the 80 seat mark; not sure though.
However, I can't see them getting anything less than 70.

UrbanSea

The Fianna Fail fella knocked out in the 6th round just gave the other about 3000 votes and has my fella 250 votes out of the seat with one round to go. Going down to the wire

UrbanSea

Winner winner chicken dinner.
First SF candidate to be elected in the constituency since '57

ceadaoin.

UrbanSea wrote: »

Think I saw 73% earlier

According to RTE, turnout 70%

8-10

Looks like Bacik will be excluded, so one of my bets, RBB @2/1 or Hanafin @evens should come in!

dixiefly

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Finally i can reveal my election bets, having never lost a election bet before im quiet confident.

€400 Voter Turnout 66% and under 7/2 taken 2 week ago(now suspended by ladbrokes)

€500 Fine Gael to win 72 seats or less 4/1 done today (now 10/3 with ladbrokes)

Madness

Was it not obvious that there was such unhappiness countrywide with the administration that the turnout would increase?

I dont bet on elections but I would have backed the opposite at even very low odds. Regarding FG seats, not as crazy a bet but to ignore the polls which had been consistently above 37% was a bit risky imo.

You dont work for Anglo Irish bank by any chance? (only kidding)

Sir Vival

Cavehill Red wrote: »

I don't think anyone can be accurate about Lab's final numbers at this point. Anywhere from late twenties to mid forties is possible.
I just think that like the FG vote, it's been a bit overaccounted for. Labour will do well in Dublin, but not as well as was thought due to a very strong hard left performance. And down the country? It'll come down to transfers.
I still think anything over 11/8 for that bet looks like value. It's already closed slightly from 2/1 to 15/8 with PP, and the FG vote likewise has gone in from 4/5 to 4/7.

A labour lad on RTE reckons Labour will win 36 seats definitely and "hopefully 37 seats". Great value bet anyways. Please god it comes in now.

JONJO THE MISER

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Finally i can reveal my election bets, having never lost a election bet before im quiet confident.

€400 Voter Turnout 66% and under 7/2 taken 2 week ago(now suspended by ladbrokes)

€500 Fine Gael to win 72 seats or less 4/1 done today (now 10/3 with ladbrokes)

Ouch

JONJO THE MISER

So close but yet so far, looks like F.G will get 75 seats in the end, 3 too many for me:(

3DataModem

Jonjo

I think the 72 or less bet appeared excellent value right up to start of count... it is easy to be 'right' in retrospect but the logic was definitely sound. NOBODY (in the gambling communty) expected FF to be <21 seats (I had 21-25 at 4/1:(). Good bet, hard luck.

I think the turnout bet was not great value especially two weeks beforehand. There were none of the usual 'apathy' factors, weather was predicted to be dry AND weekend-away numbers are down 20-25%. In reality 66% was more lke a 6/1 or 7/1 shot. There was a view at emigration would impact the numbers but the emigrating demographic has a 30-40% turnout in any case so emigration is driving UP voter turnout.

But... kudos for posting odds and stakes before the off, and better luck next time.

91011

How dare the core FF voters give their number 2's & 3's to FG:p:p. Otherwise at 36% of national vote they would have come in scraping 70 and I'd be planning a nice week in cheltenham.

91011

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

:eek: Michael Healy Rae is Evs to win Kerry south with P.P, i think he has a 80% chance of winning a seat.
Going to put €300 on him at evs and thats it no more bets i swear:o
Really looking forward to tomorrow and winning a few thousand from Ladbrokes.
Good Luck with all your bets lads.

8-10 wrote: »

Simply €100 on Boyd Barrett in Dun Laoghaire @ 2/1 !

At least some people won something off the bookies - but I think a big win for the bookies all round.

thenutflush

Hard luck with those two bets jonjo. 4/1 was great value for 72 or less, looked about 6/4 before the election in my opinion, but alas it wasn't to be.

At least Michael Healy Rae getting elected will take the sting out of it slightly for you.

Johner

thenutflush wrote: »

Hard luck with those two bets jonjo. 4/1 was great value for 72 or less, looked about 6/4 before the election in my opinion, but alas it wasn't to be.

At least Michael Healy Rae getting elected will take the sting out of it slightly for you.

Was the bet not to win Kerry South?

JONJO THE MISER

Johner wrote: »

Was the bet not to win Kerry South?

No just to get elected, if i saw it earlier i would of put more money on it.

UrbanSea

Unluck Jonjo.

UrbanSea

Lads does anyone know what odds Ming was to get in in Roscommon?

JONJO THE MISER

UrbanSea wrote: »

Lads does anyone know what odds Ming was to get in in Roscommon?

He was 11/10 a few weeks ago but i think he went as low as 1/5.