Paddy Power , 21 seats for FF is this true ?

raymon

Looking at the odds for each candidate on paddy power website . Assuming that the favourites in each constituency get in , FF will be lucky to get 21 seats.

Fingers crossed . Maybe I am looking at it incorrectly

ilovesleep

21 Seats too many

maynooth_rules

Hopefully 21 is being generous

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Rabidlamb

We all thought "the core vote" was hiding in the bushes lying to pollsters.
As there's been no Michael Martin bounce this is looking less likely.
All depends what the old folks do in the sanctity of the polling booth, Jebus will be looking down & he votes FF.

Ray Burkes Pension

I got 24 when I counted them from PaddyPower there.
The Irish Times has them on 33 in their prediction.
Interestingly PP has them at evens odds to get 25 or over.

Sad Professor

21 seats is way too few. I'm expecting over 35. Even 40 wouldn't surprise me.

How are these polls being conducted anyway? By phone? No way dyed in the wool FF supporters are being truthful. They are either not taking part or they are lying. "Shy FF Factor", like the Torys in the 1992 UK election.

mgegan

I have FF as Certs to win 25 seats. Even at current support levels the
system will suit them. On this I see them getting 27-28. A 2% swing
will bring them to over 30. Like there is still a FF core vote in
South Tipp, South Kerry, Roscommon/South Leitrim and Wicklow on Top of
what I have. When the old FF voter gets to the booth they will find it
very hard not to take the pen to the FF candidate and even if they go
for some other one the preferences will work towards them.

Also the crowds that turned out at their conventions to elect
candidates were bigger than ever and Micheal Martin is playing the
right game looking to the FF faithful. I think it will work.

Frank Fahey is a great bet at 5/1 to win a seat in Galway West.

Wicklow - Dont rule out Dick Roche. FG wont get 3 seats. The danger
here is the use Joe Behan can get make of the FF vote. At any rate he
is FF in disguise.
Wexford - 1 seat is likely. Mick Wallace is likable but is he
electable. He fecked around with building and he is a soccer buff.
Waterford - 1 seat with Brendan Kenneally
Tipperary South - Its likely Martin Mansergh will lose his seat
Tipperary South - Marie Hoctor looks to be in trouble but there is
still a strong FF background
Sligo-North Leitrim - 1 Seat
Roscommon South Leitrim - Possible seat
Meath West - 1 Seat
Meath East - 1 Seat
Mayo - 1 Seat. FG wont get 4 there. Will be a shock.
Louth - 1 Seat.
Longford Westmeath - 1 seat
Limerick City - 1 Seat.
Limerick County - 1 Seat
Laois Offaly - Looks like 2 seats but def 1.
Kildare South - 1 seat.
Kildare North - Looks like no seat
Kerry South - John O Donoughue could spring a surprise.
Kerry North - No seat
Galway West - 1 seat and possibly 2 seats. Franl Fahey at 5/1 to win a
seat is great value. Noel Grealish has traditionally got some of
Fahey's Claregalway/Carnmore/Annaghdown/Turloughmore vote. From the
group I think that is changing as Grealish has delivered nothing.
Galway East - 1 Seat. Sean Canny is FF in disguise.
Dun Laoghaire - 1 Seat
Dublin West - 1 seat
Dublin South West - Pat Rabbitte, Sean Crowe and Brian Hayes are in.
Will Rabbitte take in one with him. Possibly.
Dublin South East - Chris Andrews could spring a surprise.
Dublin South Central - Hard to believe that Sean Lemass's constituncy
wont return a FF TD. As little as 9% of the vote could be enough to
get someone elected!
Dublin South - 1 Seat.
Dublin North East - Only 3 TD's could mean no seat.
Dublin North Central - Again the problem is only 3 TD's
Dublin North - 1 Seat
Dublin Mid West - John Curran is a sitting TD in a constituncy that
also has old FF vote who supported Mary Harney.1 Seat.
Dublin Central - Margaret O Sullivian could throw a spanner in the works for FF.
Donegal SW - 1 Seat
Donegal NW - 1 Seat
Cork SW - No Seat
Cork NW - 1 Seat
Cork SC - 1 Seat. There could be a shock here.
Cork NC - Hard to see Billy Kelleher not pulling off a seat here.
Cork East - 1 seat.
Clare - 1 Seat
Cavan-Monaghan - 1 Seat
Carlow-Kilkenny - 1 Seat. Is the Alyward machine not working. Bobby at 9/4 to get a seat. Wouldnt know enough but thats the story.

Ghost Estate

boards.ie/vote says 3 seats for FF. I hope to God they are right

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

BeardyFunzo

was discussing this this morning with some colleagues, I predict that FF will get at least 25% of the vote and that FG will suffer as old voting habits die hard amongst our older population.

Not that I'm happy about this, mind you.

raymon

Sad Professor wrote: »

21 seats is way too few. I'm expecting over 35. Even 40 wouldn't surprise me.

How are these polls being conducted anyway? By phone? No way dyed in the wool FF supporters are being truthful. They are either not taking part or they are lying. "Shy FF Factor", like the Torys in the 1992 UK election.

Sad professor , paddy power believes differently based on their odds. Looking at the odds Fianna fail will be humiliated.

But if you believe that 40 will get in , if you really believe, why not place some small bets on your hopeless Fianna fail candidates. You could make a fortune , or lose a few quid.

I believe 18- 24 will end up elected

ednwireland

mgegan wrote: »

Kerry North - No seat
Cork SW - No Seat

you calling micheal martin a liar :P

mgegan

raymon wrote: »

Sad professor , paddy power believes differently based on their odds. Looking at the odds Fianna fail will be humiliated.

But if you believe that 40 will get in , if you really believe, why not place some small bets on your hopeless Fianna fail candidates. You could make a fortune , or lose a few quid.

I believe 18- 24 will end up elected

Paddy Power and other bookies are in the business of making money. Like the racing they skew the odds to favour themselves. I have a belief on FF. FF voters would vote for a Donkey with a FF sticker on him. And even if the Donkey had 3 legs, a cyclops eye, two tails and spoke Arabic with a Chinese accent they would still vote for the DONKEY. Ignore the polls. There are still 25% of the people in this country in the FF camp. Perhaps they will lose 20% of that this time out but they will still get 20% of the vote or close on it, especially in rural Ireland. That's just the way it is. STUPID IRISH.

raymon

23 Seats for FF last count. Another interesting point is that the odds for coughlan and b Lenihan are pretty bad . Any bad press at this stage would be devastating to FF .

K-9

mgegan wrote: »

I have FF as Certs to win 25 seats. Even at current support levels the
system will suit them. On this I see them getting 27-28. A 2% swing
will bring them to over 30. Like there is still a FF core vote in
South Tipp, South Kerry, Roscommon/South Leitrim and Wicklow on Top of
what I have. When the old FF voter gets to the booth they will find it
very hard not to take the pen to the FF candidate and even if they go
for some other one the preferences will work towards them.

Also the crowds that turned out at their conventions to elect
candidates were bigger than ever and Micheal Martin is playing the
right game looking to the FF faithful. I think it will work.

Frank Fahey is a great bet at 5/1 to win a seat in Galway West.

Wicklow - Dont rule out Dick Roche. FG wont get 3 seats. The danger
here is the use Joe Behan can get make of the FF vote. At any rate he
is FF in disguise.
Wexford - 1 seat is likely. Mick Wallace is likable but is he
electable. He fecked around with building and he is a soccer buff.
Waterford - 1 seat with Brendan Kenneally
Tipperary South - Its likely Martin Mansergh will lose his seat
Tipperary South - Marie Hoctor looks to be in trouble but there is
still a strong FF background
Sligo-North Leitrim - 1 Seat
Roscommon South Leitrim - Possible seat
Meath West - 1 Seat
Meath East - 1 Seat
Mayo - 1 Seat. FG wont get 4 there. Will be a shock.
Louth - 1 Seat.
Longford Westmeath - 1 seat
Limerick City - 1 Seat.
Limerick County - 1 Seat
Laois Offaly - Looks like 2 seats but def 1.
Kildare South - 1 seat.
Kildare North - Looks like no seat
Kerry South - John O Donoughue could spring a surprise.
Kerry North - No seat
Galway West - 1 seat and possibly 2 seats. Franl Fahey at 5/1 to win a
seat is great value. Noel Grealish has traditionally got some of
Fahey's Claregalway/Carnmore/Annaghdown/Turloughmore vote. From the
group I think that is changing as Grealish has delivered nothing.
Galway East - 1 Seat. Sean Canny is FF in disguise.
Dun Laoghaire - 1 Seat
Dublin West - 1 seat
Dublin South West - Pat Rabbitte, Sean Crowe and Brian Hayes are in.
Will Rabbitte take in one with him. Possibly.
Dublin South East - Chris Andrews could spring a surprise.
Dublin South Central - Hard to believe that Sean Lemass's constituncy
wont return a FF TD. As little as 9% of the vote could be enough to
get someone elected!
Dublin South - 1 Seat.
Dublin North East - Only 3 TD's could mean no seat.
Dublin North Central - Again the problem is only 3 TD's
Dublin North - 1 Seat
Dublin Mid West - John Curran is a sitting TD in a constituncy that
also has old FF vote who supported Mary Harney.1 Seat.
Dublin Central - Margaret O Sullivian could throw a spanner in the works for FF.
Donegal SW - 1 Seat
Donegal NW - 1 Seat
Cork SW - No Seat
Cork NW - 1 Seat
Cork SC - 1 Seat. There could be a shock here.
Cork NC - Hard to see Billy Kelleher not pulling off a seat here.
Cork East - 1 seat.
Clare - 1 Seat
Cavan-Monaghan - 1 Seat
Carlow-Kilkenny - 1 Seat. Is the Alyward machine not working. Bobby at 9/4 to get a seat. Wouldnt know enough but thats the story.

Donegal NE could very well return no FF candidate. Poor candidate and geographical selection.

raymon

K-9 wrote: »

Donegal NE could very well return no FF candidate. Poor candidate and geographical selection.

mcconalogue looking shaky right now

Fr Tod Umptious

Jim Glennon on TV3 a few months ago said a good rule of thumb was that FF would win a seat in each 5 seater and a seat in half the 4 seaters and then the 3 seaters are harder to pin down, depending on the candidate, geography etc.

On the thinking you would have FF at somewhere above 18

K-9

raymon wrote: »

mcconalogue looking shaky right now

Yep, a decent Labour candidate from Letterkenny as the main threat.

Donegal SW isn't even a cert though I'd say FF should get over the line there if the 2 candidate strategy works as they expect. Still FF are transfer toxic so who knows what will happen. They mightn't necessarily get No. 2's even from many FF voters!

PeterIanStaker

There will be more FF seats than predicted.

As I've said in another thread, de paaarteh fateful would push a child out in front of a truck if FF told them to.

I hope it ices over on Friday morning and all the ould wans break hips and legs on their way to the polling stations after mass.

raymon

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Jim Glennon on TV3 a few months ago said a good rule of thumb was that FF would win a seat in each 5 seater and a seat in half the 4 seaters and then the 3 seaters are harder to pin down, depending on the candidate, geography etc.

On the thinking you would have FF at somewhere above 18

That sounds about right

mgegan

FF voters would vote for a Donkey with a FF sticker on him. And even if the Donkey had 3 legs, a cyclops eye, two tails and spoke Arabic with a Chinese accent they would still vote for the DONKEY. Ignore the polls. There are still 25% of the people in this country in the FF camp. Perhaps they will lose 20% of that this time out but they will still get 20% of the vote or close on it, especially in rural Ireland. That's just the way it is. STUPID IRISH.

TheMilkyPirate

mgegan wrote: »

Paddy Power and other bookies are in the business of making money. Like the racing they skew the odds to favour themselves. I have a belief on FF. FF voters would vote for a Donkey with a FF sticker on him. And even if the Donkey had 3 legs, a cyclops eye, two tails and spoke Arabic with a Chinese accent they would still vote for the DONKEY. Ignore the polls. There are still 25% of the people in this country in the FF camp. Perhaps they will lose 20% of that this time out but they will still get 20% of the vote or close on it, especially in rural Ireland. That's just the way it is. STUPID IRISH.

mgegan wrote: »

FF voters would vote for a Donkey with a FF sticker on him. And even if the Donkey had 3 legs, a cyclops eye, two tails and spoke Arabic with a Chinese accent they would still vote for the DONKEY. Ignore the polls. There are still 25% of the people in this country in the FF camp. Perhaps they will lose 20% of that this time out but they will still get 20% of the vote or close on it, especially in rural Ireland. That's just the way it is. STUPID IRISH.

Look! A parrot!

mgegan

baraca wrote: »

Look! A parrot!

Llanelli Scarlets to beat Edinburgh. No need to repeat that!

raymon

Looks like hanafin is out too , that's a surprise .

23 seats last count (based in the odds)

Pal

raymon wrote: »

23 Seats for FF last count. Another interesting point is that the odds for coughlan and b Lenihan are pretty bad . Any bad press at this stage would be devastating to FF .

I think Lenihan is in more than a spot of bother.

Big swing to FG in his stronghold of Castleknock.
Varadkar could pull in his running mate.

What might save Lenihan is the fight between Lab/FG for the last seat.

jimmycrackcorm

K-9 wrote: »

Yep, a decent Labour candidate from Letterkenny as the main threat.

Donegal SW isn't even a cert though I'd say FF should get over the line there if the 2 candidate strategy works as they expect. Still FF are transfer toxic so who knows what will happen. They mightn't necessarily get No. 2's even from many FF voters!

Donegal N/E so thankful they didn't get landed with Frank McBrearty.

K-9

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Donegal N/E so thankful they didn't get landed with Frank McBrearty.

Unfortunately due to Boundary changes I don't have that option. Would save a lot of time in trying to pick a candidate!

gandalf

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Quoting this in case it does happen

I think it will be around 25 seats myself. I have a feeling that some FF die hards will not bother voting this time around.

raymon

Last count 23 seats for FF, another 7 or 8 seats are looking very dodgy

AdpRo

mgegan wrote: »

I have FF as Certs to win 25 seats. Even at current support levels the
system will suit them. On this I see them getting 27-28. A 2% swing
will bring them to over 30. Like there is still a FF core vote in
South Tipp, South Kerry, Roscommon/South Leitrim and Wicklow on Top of
what I have. When the old FF voter gets to the booth they will find it
very hard not to take the pen to the FF candidate and even if they go
for some other one the preferences will work towards them.

Also the crowds that turned out at their conventions to elect
candidates were bigger than ever and Micheal Martin is playing the
right game looking to the FF faithful. I think it will work.

Roscommon South Leitrim - Possible seat
Dublin South - 1 Seat.

The 2 constituncies I know and I can't see FF getting a seat in either. 2 FG in Roscommon are a cert and lasts seat will probably be between Ming and Kelly from Labour. Ross, Mitchel, Shatter, White should get in in Dublin South, last seat will be a battle between Mathews (FG), Cullinane (Lab), Ryan (Greens) and Corrigan (FF). If I had to put money on someone I would go for FG but you never know, Corrigan may pull off a suprise.

bleg

What is paddy power predicting for all parties?