Who will get the most individual first preferences in the country?

leche solara

Who do you think will individually get the most first preference votes in the country. Previously Bertie was a huge vote getter, and Willie O'Dea and Brian Cowen got huge personal votes. 2 of them are gone and Willie probably has lost a large chunk, so who will be the number 1 vote getter this time. Probably won't be Enda as the plan to get 4 seats in Mayo will mean careful vote management.

loldog

Gerry Adams?

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SnowY32

Gerry Adams id say he has the vote no 1 factor!

Ray Burkes Pension

Adams wont even get the highest number of first preferences in Louth.

RugGol

I suspect either Gerry Adams or Enda Kenny

Adams for 3 reasons
- His High Profile / popularity in Louth
- because he is in a 5 seater which will only be electing 4 TD's ie Greater ratio of voters to seats
- No other Big name in that constituancy

Kenny for 2 reasons
- His High profile / popularity in Mayo
- because he is in a 5 seater with relatively small number of candidates (15)

Perhaps FG have tried to strategise in Mayo to get 3 seats - in which case his personal tally will be down

leche solara

RugGol wrote: »

Kenny for 2 reasons
- His High profile / popularity in Mayo
- because he is in a 5 seater with relatively small number of candidates (15)

Perhaps FG have tried to strategise in Mayo to get 3 seats - in which case his personal tally will be down

FG are trying to vote manage Mayo to get 4 seats, so I would say for that reason Kenny won't be the highest in the country

TGQ

Shane Ross in Dublin South will get the highest No 1's

upmeath

Eamon Gilmore in DL, highest approval rating of any party leader.

Among younger candidates, possibility of Damien English (FG) coming out well in Meath West, a relatively fresh face likely to find ministry in a "fresh" government, and the 12 other candidates contesting the constituency are all mind-numbingly uninspiring.

Pearse Doherty has steered Sinn Féin's boat for 3 months since he joined the lower chamber, I'd imagine the DSW electorate will come out strong in favour of him.

Leslie91

Rabbitte, Gilmore or Ross.

I'll go for Pat.

darragh16

Michael Lowry - Tipp North. Place always has a highest tournout. He'd get into bed with either FF or FG. He does a lot for the area etc. etc.

finty

RugGol wrote: »

I suspect either Gerry Adams or Enda Kenny

Adams for 3 reasons
- His High Profile / popularity in Louth
- because he is in a 5 seater which will only be electing 4 TD's ie Greater ratio of voters to seats
- No other Big name in that constituancy

Kenny for 2 reasons
- His High profile / popularity in Mayo
- because he is in a 5 seater with relatively small number of candidates (15)

Perhaps FG have tried to strategise in Mayo to get 3 seats - in which case his personal tally will be down

You obviously know very little about the Louth constituency.

Gerry Adams wont come even close to topping the poll in Louth. Fergus O'Dowd will come first easily.

Gerry will stuggle into the last seat and could even lose out

mikemac

darragh16 wrote: »

Michael Lowry - Tipp North. Place always has a highest tournout. He'd get into bed with either FF or FG. He does a lot for the area etc. etc.

+1 for the Michael Lowry

Plus other candidates in the area aren't much good, no competition at all

Tipp North usually has one of the highest turnouts

SafeSurfer

finty wrote: »

You obviously know very little about the Louth constituency.

Gerry Adams wont come even close to topping the poll in Louth. Fergus O'Dowd will come first easily.

Gerry will stuggle into the last seat and could even lose out

Adams got 37% of the first preference vote in a recent poll in Louth, almost 2 quotas so I think he may be the national poll topper.

Suryavarman

Luke "Ming" Flanagan is doing exceptionally well in Roscommon-South Leitrim on the boards pole. Has 3 times the first preference vote of the second candidate. Definitely in with a shout.

finty

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Adams got 37% of the first preference vote in a recent poll in Louth, almost 2 quotas so I think he may be the national poll topper.

Source??

irishh_bob

finty wrote: »

You obviously know very little about the Louth constituency.

Gerry Adams wont come even close to topping the poll in Louth. Fergus O'Dowd will come first easily.

Gerry will stuggle into the last seat and could even lose out

louth ( courteousy of dundalk ) is the 2nd strongest shinner county in the country , i seriously doubt gerry adams will fail to win a seat , especially as arthur morgan is not running

finty

irishh_bob wrote: »

louth ( courteousy of dundalk ) is the 2nd strongest shinner county in the country , i seriously doubt gerry adams will fail to win a seat , especially as arthur morgan is not running

Can you back that point up?
I dont know the stats about any other counties.

In the 2007 election Arthur Morgan got the final seat without making the quota, hardly a stronghold.

The Sinn Fein vote will vote Sinn Fein.

However, Sinn Fein's difficulty attracting transfers has been exacerbated by the animosity towards Adams being parachuted in from Belfast add to that the McConville factor and he could struggle.

Pal

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Adams got 37% of the first preference vote in a recent poll in Louth, almost 2 quotas so I think he may be the national poll topper.

he won't even get elected

Pal

Enda should be the biggest. varadkar will do well too

Blowfish

upmeath wrote: »

Eamon Gilmore in DL, highest approval rating of any party leader.

He's not all that popular in the constituency though. He's actually never yet managed to get the first seat, but probably will get that at least this time, mainly because FG are managing their votes to get Mary Mitchell O'Connor in as well.

loldog

Ray Burkes Pension wrote: »

Adams wont even get the highest number of first preferences in Louth.

First preference votes Adams 15,072.

Looks like you got it wrong.

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