What happens to vote surplus?

RandomName2

So a candidate has more than the required 1st preference votes.

Supposing he needs 50,000 1st pref votes and he receives 65,000.

The 15,000 surplus will pass down to the other candidates.

But what 15,000? Is it a first-come-first-serve basis where votes are counted for the first candidate until he reaches the quota, and all for all subsequent votes counted for that candidate will be excluded in the counting?

All votes already counted do not have their 2nd and 3rd preferences taken into account?

----

If this is the case, would it perhaps be more sensible to give higher preference to candidates who are less likely to get in, as all their votes will be redistributed if they get knocked out?

According to Dublins returning officer on last nights drivetime on radio one,the entire amount of the 65k votes would be remixed and 15k taken out of the pile making it a random 15k.
Tally people would be watching this process so it's done fairly.
That 15k is then redistributed.

dilallio

After the previous count, the votes for each candidate are stacked in piles of 50 or 100. When taking the 15K surplus from the 50K, they remove an amount from each pile (50s or 100s) so that they are taking a random sample.

Riskymove

RandomName2 wrote: »

If this is the case, would it perhaps be more sensible to give higher preference to candidates who are less likely to get in, as all their votes will be redistributed if they get knocked out?

many people do that yes.

mewso

I understood that all 65000 second preferences would be counted and then the total for each candidate divided by the 15k/65k ratio. Obviously mistaken.

Jolly Red Giant

RandomName2 wrote: »

If this is the case, would it perhaps be more sensible to give higher preference to candidates who are less likely to get in, as all their votes will be redistributed if they get knocked out?

Some people do that - but the reality is that in the vast majority of cases this has zero impact on the actualy result.

Zubeneschamali

RandomName2 wrote: »

would it perhaps be more sensible to give higher preference to candidates who are less likely to get in, as all their votes will be redistributed if they get knocked out?

No, because your higher preference for this guy you think will be eliminated could help eliminate a candidate you actually prefer.

If you vote in the order you prefer, your vote can't help someone lower in you list eliminate someone higher. The random element means your lower preferences may not count if your particular vote is not distributed from a surplus, but that's still the way to go.

Lister1

Are there not written rules that need to be followed? I would have thought that the 65k would be rechecked and the surplus assigned on a ratio basis...

The Rooster

mewso wrote: »

I understood that all 65000 second preferences would be counted and then the total for each candidate divided by the 15k/65k ratio. Obviously mistaken.

That is what happened under e-voting, but it would take too long under manual counting, so they take a random sample to give a best estimate.

A random sample will get within a couple of % of the correct answer. If its very very close, then a recount of a count, or a full recount, should ensure we get to the right answer.

Riskymove

Jolly Red Giant wrote: »

Some people do that - but the reality is that in the vast majority of cases this has zero impact on the actualy result.

huh?

I think not, transfers of eliminated candidates have a major impact on who gets elected

Jolly Red Giant

Riskymove wrote: »

huh?

I think not, transfers of eliminated candidates have a major impact on who gets elected

Yes - but the point being made was -

If this is the case, would it perhaps be more sensible to give higher preference to candidates who are less likely to get in, as all their votes will be redistributed if they get knocked out?

In which case it would have pretty much zero impact.

Riskymove

Jolly Red Giant wrote: »

Yes - but the point being made was -

In which case it would have pretty much zero impact.

er...yes.....but I think that strategy would have an impact and you think it wont

_Bella_

Mentioned on campaign daily today. In scenario above a random 15,000 would have been taken.