Sunday Papers Opinion Polls Thread

mike65

Sunday Independent Millward Brown Poll

FG 37%
Lab 20%
FF 16%
SF 12%
Others 12%
GP 1%

Tuesday poll from 15th February 2011 (also Indo/Millward Brown)

FG 38%
Lab 23%
FF 12%
Sinn Fein 10%
Others 16%
GP 3%,

The debates are making no difference to anything really nor are Labours attacks of FG, or put another way the attacks are not boosting Labours vote, dropping it if anything.

gizmo555

It will be interesting to compare with the Sunday Business Post/Red C poll due in tomorrow's paper - the details will probably be out in an hour or so on the RTE TV news.

In these two FF are up by about the same as Labour are down. Is some of FF's traditional working class vote finally rallying to the cause?

Sir Oxman

Labour (downward) and FF (upward) figures are significant and worth talking about.
The rest nothing much different.

SB-08

SBP Red C poll: FG: 39% (+1), Lab: 17% (-3), FF: 16% (+1), SF: 12% (+2), Grns: 2% (-1), Ind: 14% (nc).

Labour in BIG trouble. They seriously need to stop attacking FG in the final week.

takun

Just released on Twitter

SBP Red C poll:

FG: 39% (+1)
Lab: 17% (-3)
FF: 16% (+1)
SF: 12% (+2)
Grns: 2% (-1)
Ind: 14% (nc)

gizmo555

SB-08 wrote: »

SBP Red C poll: FG: 39% (+1), Lab: 17% (-3), FF: 16% (+1), SF: 12% (+2), Grns: 2% (-1), Ind: 14% (nc).

Labour in BIG trouble. They seriously need to stop attacking FG in the final week.

As a life-long Labour voter who has been so turned off by Labour in this campaign as to switch to FG, it gives me no pleasure to say it, but they have blown it spectacularly.

It's too late for them now - there isn't a week left, in effect with the moratorium on media coverage on Thursday, the campaign only has four days to go.

GSF

Gilmore needs to go angry against FF on Tuesday night and keep saying "I agree with Enda" whenever he opens his mouth.

Oh and change the locks on the room Begg & Jacko are being held in.

Sir Oxman

Wow, Labour on a complete downward trajectory - not good if you're as anti-FF as I am.
Mr. Gilmore really shouldn't have let the useless party leader polls go to his little red head.
One week to recover! AND these were taken before the beardies opened their big mouths!

That's two polls showing FF recovering (more than 3% is significant, anything less isn't) and two showing Labour declining significantly.

Really, really bad campaign from Labour - as another wag said the Gilmore Gale is now the Fine Gael.

Who said this was a boring election?!

marmurr1916

Labour's strategy of attacking Fine Gael and placing the emphasis on Gilmore is backfiring badly.

Both Gilmore and Labour are suffering because of this.

From the Sunday Independent poll:

Preferences for Taoiseach -

E. Kenny - 33%

M. Martin - 28%

E. Gilmore - 24%

Killer Pigeon

I just don't understand why the almost the same amount of people who want Labour in power would want a FF back in power.

Anyway, I for one welcome our new Thatcherite overlords.

Sierra Oscar

FF on course to be leaders of the opposition if this trend continues . . . astonishing to think that FF could be about to overtake Labour.

Killer Pigeon

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

FF on course to be leaders of the opposition if this trend continues . . . astonishing to think that FF could be about to overtake Labour.

This is exactly why I'm sick of Irish politics.

Morzadec

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

FF on course to be leaders of the opposition if this trend continues . . . astonishing to think that FF could be about to overtake Labour.

When will we learn eh?

mike65

The next question is - who will be the next leader of Labour Party

GSF

mike65 wrote: »

The next question is - who will be the next leader of Labour Party

and can they start on Monday?:D

flutered

Morzadec wrote: »

When will we learn eh?

when will they ever learn, labour have this time put fg in their sights, when the people of ireland were giving them a chance, they should have had ff in their sights when the public turned against them, no gilmore wanted to be t shock, he could be lucky to become tainaste, this is the second election where they got it wrong.

gizmo555

mike65 wrote: »

The next question is - who will be the next leader of Labour Party

I hope to God it's not another sticky. I had to laugh at the title of a book being reviewed in today's "Irish Times": Democratic Left: The Life and Death of an Irish Political Party.

Democratic Left didn't die - it carried out a reverse takeover of the Labour Party and now it has destroyed it to the point where it's in with a good chance of being beaten into 3rd place behind FF.

Killer Pigeon

SB-08 wrote: »

SBP Red C poll: FG: 39% (+1), Lab: 17% (-3), FF: 16% (+1), SF: 12% (+2), Grns: 2% (-1), Ind: 14% (nc).

Labour in BIG trouble. They seriously need to stop attacking FG in the final week.

Do you have a link for this?

mike65 wrote: »

The next question is - who will be the next leader of Labour Party

It needs young, new and educated people. Possibly someone like Ivana Bacik or Dominic Hannigan, although that's probably not going to happen. They'll put some old union gombeen in charge as per usual.

Sir Oxman

If FG continue at 38-39% and the rest are below 20%, FG are in for a very big seat bonus.
A majority is on for FG.

3ndahalfof6

gambiaman wrote: »

If FG continue at 38-39% and the rest are below 20%, FG are in for a very big seat bonus.
A majority is on for FG.

well if they get the majority it will be great, because when they receive the vote of no confidence on the 9th of march 2013 we can then get rid of them all,

with FF and FG decimated a space will open up for someone new to fix it all,

but it wont be the new party FFG.

hotmail.com

What is surprising for me is the growing support for Enda Kenny? What's that down to?

hotmail.com

hotmail.com wrote: »

What is surprising for me is the growing support for Enda Kenny? What's that down to?

I would say it's down to many people having never actually seen Enda really speak or do anything but just went along with everyone else in their "I just don't like him..." opinion.

Sir Oxman

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

well if they get the majority it will be great, because when they receive the vote of no confidence on the 9th of march 2013 we can then get rid of them all,

with FF and FG decimated a space will open up for someone new to fix it all,

but it wont be the new party FFG.

Huh?

takun

hotmail.com wrote: »

What is surprising for me is the growing support for Enda Kenny? What's that down to?

It would make you think that the less said the better.

In an environment where people are generally not overcome with delight by any of the options before them, it's not so much about gaining voters as not losing them. Everytime any of them open their mouths they are turning off some group of voters, the trick they are all trying to pull is to turn off as few as possible.

By keeping his trap shut and not saying very much at all when he does open it, Enda is winning the damage limitation war.

Amtmann

hotmail.com wrote: »

What is surprising for me is the growing support for Enda Kenny? What's that down to?

I never saw anything wrong with Enda to begin with. I always preferred him to Ahern and Cowen, and I happen to think he will make a fine Taoiseach. I'm just surprised it's taken so many other people so long to realise this too.

Coillte_Bhoy

gizmo555 wrote: »

Democratic Left didn't die - it carried out a reverse takeover of the Labour Party and now it has destroyed it to the point where it's in with a good chance of being beaten into 3rd place behind FF.

Hardly destroyed it ffs. Labour's current level of support is probably higher than they have ever had

hotmail.com

FG-Green coalition is a possibility. This prospect could win a few votes for the Greens.

Sierra Oscar

Hmm. Labour's multiple candidate strategy could seriously backfire at this stage in favour of FF.

Rubik.

gambiaman wrote: »

If FG continue at 38-39% and the rest are below 20%, FG are in for a very big seat bonus.
A majority is on for FG.

FF got just under 42% in the last election, which worked out at 78 eats. If FG were to get 38-39% they would still needed something like 7 or 8 independents to give them a very slim majority. It's possible, but a FG/Lab government is still more likely.

vienna

Fianna Fail, 16% ....hard to believe they will achieve even that, given everything.
Sad really in 2011

hotmail.com

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Hmm. Labour's multiple candidate strategy could seriously backfire at this stage in favour of FF.

This is the main concern now for Labour - they can get away with two candidates in 5 seater constituencies, that's about it.

Sir Oxman

Rubik. wrote: »

FF got just under 42% in the last election, which worked out at 78 eats. If FG were to get 38-39% they would still needed something like 7 or 8 independents to give them a very slim majority. It's possible, but a FG/Lab government is still more likely.

FF weren't 20%+ ahead of the field though, with that FG will have candidates in for the last seats in a lot of constituencies, they are running enough of them. It's a fact of the PR-STV system we have that the bigger the gap, the bigger the seat bonus.
Labour are looking in serious trouble, in the locals last time, they polled at ~20% and realised only 14%.
It'll be interesting how transfers between FG and Labour play out though and if the Primetime 3way debate does anything to make an impression...

Sierra Oscar

gambiaman wrote: »

It'll be interesting how transfers between FG and Labour play out though and if the Primetime 3way debate does anything to make an impression...

One would assume the transfers between Labour & FG will break down.

FG supporters want a majority and now know its within reach - transferring to Labour is counter-productive. And vica-vera for Labour.

Liam Byrne

vienna wrote: »

Fianna Fail, 16% ....hard to believe they will achieve even that, given everything.
Sad really in 2011

Why is it "sad" ?

Sir Oxman

hotmail.com wrote: »

This is the main concern now for Labour - they can get away with two candidates in 5 seater constituencies, that's about it.

Yeah, they look in trouble in DubC (4seats) - Costello is to top the poll but his running mate is polling only ~5%, poor strategy.
DubSC (5seats) they might stand a chance of 2 but they were looking at 3!

Pal

Its really encouraging that people are copping on and flocking to FG.
There is no doubt about it that this country needs one thing badly right now.

One Party Government.
Nothing less.

hotmail.com

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Why is it "sad" ?

After everything that has happened, 16% of people will still vote for FF.

flutered

3ndahalfof6 wrote: »

well if they get the majority it will be great, because when they receive the vote of no confidence on the 9th of march 2013 we can then get rid of them all,

how can we manage this, are they not in for a five year term.

gizmo555

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Hardly destroyed it ffs. Labour's current level of support is probably higher than they have ever had

They got 33 seats in the 1992 general election and on these figures there isn't a hope in hell of getting anywhere near that this time around.

In the face of the worst economic catastrophe this country has experienced, caused directly by the gross excesses and abuses of the capitalist system, this is a pretty pathetic outcome for an organization positioning itself as the main left-wing political party.

femur61

I think Labours affiliation with unions are doing them more harm than good. Most of my immediate family (and thers alot of them) despise the grasp unions have in their work.

the groutch

there's only one poll that really matters tho

I'll give you a clue, it's in 6 days time

steelcityblues

Labour are going to remain the third largest party I think!

steelcityblues

mike65 wrote: »

The next question is - who will be the next leader of Labour Party

Either C Lynch or Sherlock, unless they are stupid enough to pick another middle aged leftie Dubliner once again!

Sir Oxman

steelcityblues wrote: »

Either C Lynch or Sherlock, unless they are stupid enough to pick another middle aged leftie Dubliner once again!

Gilmore, Rabbitte, Spring, O Leary, Corish!
Hardly Dubs!
Last Dub was Quinn.

steelcityblues

gambiaman wrote: »

Gilmore, Rabbitte, Spring, O Leary, Corish!
Hardly Dubs!
Last Dub was Quinn.

Gilmore and Rabbitte have spent their adult lives in Dublin, and they have always had a particular D4, failed radical mindset that has turned off potential voters outside of the Pale.

No coincidence that the last non Dub leader was far more successful than those that have followed!

Sir Oxman

steelcityblues wrote: »

Gilmore and Rabbitte have spent their adult lives in Dublin, and they have always had a particular D4, failed radical mindset that has turned off potential voters outside of the Pale.

No coincidence that the last non Dub leader was far more successful than those that have followed!

Not Dubs though (I'm taking offence at that!) ;)

Coillte_Bhoy

the groutch wrote: »

there's only one poll that really matters tho

I'll give you a clue, it's in 6 days time

Wow! I never heard that before.:rolleyes:

steelcityblues

gambiaman wrote: »

Not Dubs though (I'm taking offence at that!) ;)

Well, I would see them as Dublin politicians in their outlook, meh!

Anyway, blindingly obvious they need to pick a non-Dublin TD as next leader, and one preferably much younger than Gilmore. Only way they can potentially eat into the traditional FF/FG bases in rural constituencies.

Coillte_Bhoy

gizmo555 wrote: »

They got 33 seats in the 1992 general election and on these figures there isn't a hope in hell of getting anywhere near that this time around.

Of course there is. Re '92 they got just under 20% of the vote so that negates your point i think. Less of the dramatics.

gizmo555

Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »

Of course there is. Re '92 they got just under 20% of the vote so that negates your point i think. Less of the dramatics.

In case you hadn't noticed, the Red C poll has them on 17% while Gilmore & Co are doing all they can to convince FG voters not to give their candidates the transfers they desperately need.

Sir Oxman

steelcityblues wrote: »

Well, I would see them as Dublin politicians in their outlook, meh!

Anyway, blindingly obvious they need to pick a non-Dublin TD as next leader, and one preferably much younger than Gilmore. Only way they can potentially eat into the traditional FF/FG bases in rural constituencies.

What about yer man Alan Kelly?(if he gets elected)