Would FG choose Indos over Lab if they got the numbers?

evercloserunion

I originally posted this thread on Politics.ie but it was immediately merged with an old and inactive thread. There is an extreme anti-Labour bias over there, and I suspect the moderators don't like discussion which attempts to defend their prospects for electoral success.

There is some talk in other threads about FG getting enough seats now to go into government propped up by a few independent TDs rather than going into coalition with Labour. Now, I will say from the outset that I don't think this will happen. I don't think FG will get sufficient seats to be able to form a government independently of Labour. But I also think that, even if they did get enough seats to could shun Labour and ally themselves with a handful of independents, they would (or at least should) choose to go with Labour regardless. Here are a few reasons why:

1) Independents tend to place their own interests, and the interests of their constituents, over the needs of the country. This is not what we need in these times and would contradict FG's talk about the national interest.

2) A government held up by a few independents would be less stable than a coalition of two parties who, despite their differences, have very much been partners in recent years. And stability is important.

3) The next government will have to make a lot of hard and unpopular decisions. Cynically speaking, Kenny will want a coalition partner to shoulder some of the blame for these decisions.

4) Screwing over Labour may prove to be a short-sighted move. FG are not always going to enjoy such popularity by default, and in future may well need an electoral partner to keep them in power. Screwing Labour and allowing them to join the rest of the left wing in opposition will divert a lot of future Labour transfers from FG to other left parties.

5) Common to all parties seems to be the idea that more fundamental change in the way we do politics is needed. At the 5-way debate the other night the leaders were very quick to distance themselves from any signs of partisan squabbling and one-upmanship. Although there is little appetite for a national government at current, the idea that the problems we are facing are too big for one party does seem to be one which is resonating with voters. In that context, putting the party first and shunning Labour in order to increase FG's dominance of the next government is likely to be an unpopular move.

What do you all think, is Kenny likely to take this route if the numbers allow it?

Blowfish

In a way, the smart move if they did actually have those numbers would be to have both Labour and the Indos. That way, if either Labour or some of the Indos threaten to pull out if they don't get their way, FG could quite happily tell them to F off as they'd still have the majority even without them.

questionmark?

Depends on the quality of Independent really doesn't it!?

Shane Ross - good. Will put national issues ahead of filling in potholes

Da Healy Rae Dynasty- Bad. Will want 1 billion to build a new international Airport in some field near Mileys house in order to support the government.

takun

evercloserunion wrote: »

1) Independents tend to place their own interests, and the interests of their constituents, over the needs of the country. This is not what we need in these times and would contradict FG's talk about the national interest.

The independents this time round are a bit different to what we've seen in the past. There are a fair few running on primarily national issues and who are not at all in favour of parish pump style politics. So I suppose it depends on the independents.

I don't see them opting for a rag bag of single issue/local issue independents, or the Healy Rae style gombeens, for all the reasons you mention, but if enough independents of the like of Shane Ross or Paul Sommerville were elected it could be a different choice. And those candidates have proper careers and are not looking at a life time in politics, so avoiding hard choices because of an eye on the next election isn't so much of an issue for them.