What makes party leaders think their seat is certain?

wolfpawnat

I know party leaders have to be promoting their party everywhere in the country and I understand that is time consuming, but why are they not canvassing their own constituencies? I am in Gilmore's area and all I have gotten is........ nothing. What good is canvassing for his party when people in his constituency are ticked off he won't even come to our doors to talk to us. I know I live in an apartment block, but I have my polling card and my vote counts too!

It is the same for all the leaders, bar Adam's who, since he is not already a Dáil member is actually trying to get himself elected!

Are they that cock-sure of themselves?

/rant over!

Ruire

wolfpawnat wrote: »

I know party leaders have to be promoting their party everywhere in the country and I understand that is time consuming, but why are they not canvassing their own constituencies? I am in Gilmore's area and all I have gotten is........ nothing. What good is canvassing for his party when people in his constituency are ticked off he won't even come to our doors to talk to us. I know I live in an apartment block, but I have my polling card and my vote counts too!

It is the same for all the leaders, bar Adam's who, since he is not already a Dáil member is actually trying to get himself elected!

Are they that cock-sure of themselves?

/rant over!

Based on polls in Kenny's constituency, FG are going to walk it. He at least, doesn't really have to make much of an effort it seems.

wolfpawnat

Ruire wrote: »

Based on polls in Kenny's constituency, FG are going to walk it. He at least, doesn't really have to make much of an effort it seems.

But it could (not saying it will of course) happen that though his party could get into government, he as an individual may not get in. Now I know in places like Mayo and Cork the leaders will most likely get in, but a supposedly socialist party has it's work cut out for it in an area like Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown.

Clinker

It happened to Dick Spring in 2002, shock loss to Martin Ferris, Sinn Féin.

RetroBate

Clinker wrote: »

It happened to Dick Spring in 2002, shock loss to Martin Ferris, Sinn Féin.

Wrong.

Dick Spring wasn't leader of the Labour Party when he lost his seat in 2002. He resigned the leadership in 1997.

Brussels Sprout

It happened to John Howard in Australia 3 years ago and he was the Prime Minister.

SafeSurfer

Frank Cluskey lost his seat as Labour leader in 1981 and Michael Mc Dowell in 2007.

carobu

I heard a guy on radio say today that Fine Gael have moved from being chickens to counting their chickens before they've hatched. I feel a general confidence from Fine Gael. They think they have it. Don't know if its because they've put in a lot of effort and are confident in their plan or that the competition isn't too fierce. But any politician who ignores their own are before the election will definitely ignore it after.

baalthor

wolfpawnat wrote: »

I know party leaders have to be promoting their party everywhere in the country and I understand that is time consuming, but why are they not canvassing their own constituencies? I am in Gilmore's area and all I have gotten is........ nothing. What good is canvassing for his party when people in his constituency are ticked off he won't even come to our doors to talk to us. I know I live in an apartment block, but I have my polling card and my vote counts too!

It is the same for all the leaders, bar Adam's who, since he is not already a Dáil member is actually trying to get himself elected!

Are they that cock-sure of themselves?

/rant over!

The party leader is expected to travel around the country promoting the party so they have less time to spend in their own constituency. For the bigger partys this isn't a problem as the leader gets a vote "bounce" which ensures their election and can help bring in a running mate.
But, as others have pointed out, this can be a problem for smaller partys.

bdeb

From where I stand none of the runners are calling and there is very little election material being delivered. I have seen neither hide 'nor hair of any of them, thank God.
This election seems to be based on an Anti FFail ticket and on leaders prescribed abilities,it would seem the canditates doesn't actually matter: Which, in the long run I don't suppose they do.

excellence

Fianna Fail have thrown in the towel for the most part in this election. In my area I saw Fianna Fail canvassers going from door to door leaving in leaflets, not knocking on doors.
That's the problem with the electoral system in this country; politicians who are in government have to legislate nationally yet look after their own seat locally.

Sierra Oscar

excellence wrote: »

Fianna Fail have thrown in the towel for the most part in this election. In my area I saw Fianna Fail canvassers going from door to door leaving in leaflets, not knocking on doors.

That's your perspective - I can guarantee you that FF candidates are out and about canvassing.

To be perfectly honest, from what I can tell many FG candidates are not putting in much of door-knocking campaign. Here in North Tipperary for example, Noel Coonan had not been seen on a door-step in the constituency until the middle of this week. One would assume that is because he thought he would walk the election with the FG tide . . . but an opinion poll that puts him battling for the last seat with FF seems to have pushed him into action!

Anyways, it is pretty well established that the high-profile party leaders get in an election campaign from the media helps them retain their seats. Also, don't forget that the leaders campaign team will still be operating.

wolfpawnat

I have to respect the FF candidates who are going to the doors and taking the abuse off the public. At least some of them are willing to take the verbal beating. You cannot help but respect it. I am sure they have had all sorts of abuse roared at them at this stage! (most of it justified of course)

I think the other thing is candidates don't want to waste their time coming to apartments as there are a lot of foreign nationals and people who are not registered to vote in general here. Which is annoying, because even though I know who I want to vote for, I have questions for every candidate, pending their party/position.

county man

Is John Gormley doing much canvassing in Dublin SE?Not that it matters that much as the Greens are likely to be wiped out in the election.

wolfpawnat

county man wrote: »

Is John Gormley doing much canvassing in Dublin SE?Not that it matters that much as the Greens are likely to be wiped out in the election.

Haven't seen hide nor hair of his lads!

mikemac

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Here in North Tipperary for example, Noel Coonan had not been seen on a door-step in the constituency until the middle of this week. One would assume that is because he thought he would walk the election with the FG tide . . . but an opinion poll that puts him battling for the last seat with FF seems to have pushed him into action!

He'll get in with FG tide but he is a very weak backbencher. If FF weren't so toxic and Hoctor hadn't the issues with Nenagh Hospital he'd lose his seat.
FG would be better off finding another bright, young councillor and dumping him or at least get a running mate next time around.

excellence wrote: »

Fianna Fail have thrown in the towel for the most part in this election. In my area I saw Fianna Fail canvassers going from door to door leaving in leaflets, not knocking on doors.

But that's just what you've seen. Every party here stuffs the letterbox with leaflets but nobody knocks on my door.
I'm not going to say none of them are trying