Adrian Kavanagh's bizarre predictions

steelcityblues

Reading NewsTalk's impressive GE blog on a daily basis, and in particualr the constituency predictions of their assigned man Adrian Kavanagh. Kavanagh, for those who don't know comes from the geography dept. of NUI Maynooth and is billed as a poltical 'researcher'.

Blog here: http://www.newstalk.ie/2011/featured/review-of-the-forty-three-dail-constituencies-blog-by-adrian-kavanagh/

Anyway, some of his predictions have left me raising my eyebrow, given the analysis of various local newspaper and indo pollsters.

Most stunning of all, is his suggestion that Gerry Adams won't take a seat for SF in Louth? The same Gerry Adams, leader of a party now into double figures nationwide, and with a TD in the county for two successive elections won't be elected?

Also, he expects Mary O'Rourke to hold on in Longford/Westmeath, despite the county of W'Meath clearly swinging towards FG?

FF to hold two seats in Meath's three seaters, despite running two candidates each in East and West? Those two are major constituencies for floating voters remember.

Also, FF keeping 7 seats in Dublin sounds quite optimistic at this stage.

Anyone else agree that some of Kavanagh's predictions, are shall we say, bizarre?

Euroland

Nonsense

SafeSurfer

I wouldn't take his predictions too seriously. He has some pretty off the wall predictions for other constituencies too. Adam's will take a seat. The black taxis crossing the border on the 25th will gaurantee it.:D

Skobie 69

Probably not as bizzare as the results the election predictor on this message board is stating. To say that the Greens with record low poll ratings will gain popularity in Galway & Louth to elect Green TD's there for the first time in their history is in cloud cuckoo land. The predictor, though elaborate & obviously shows a lot of hard work has gone into it, fails on the very fact that FF voters avoid message boards like the plague & boards.ie is made up mainly of protest & environmentally minded posters. I am 1 of them & no fan of FF but I'm also realistic & would say that FF will easily outstrip SF as the third largest party & will win closer to 40 seats than the 4 the election predictor is saying.

steelcityblues

Well, the boards results are of course slanted towards a certain demographic, and the methods are entirely different to what Kavanagh is doing.

NewsTalk are promoting this guy as their 'expert', yet he is overestimating FF seats based on current polls, while underestimating SF ones.

The guy is setting himself up to be wideoff the mark, once the election is done.

nevsky

I think there are better predictions to be found on this board.

sceptre

The boards poll "predictions" are based on what people are voting and currently (in 2011) that data is going to be skewed to some degree, based on the people who are on the web in Ireland. It's an interesting project and regardless of accuracy will have interesting results. And there will be another election after this one (sooner or later) - this is likely to be a long-term project where the results are likely to get more and more accurate in the future.

The Kavanagh predictions are actual predictions. And some of them are wacky enough that I'd happily discount the lot and deem the correct predictions to be based on little more than luck. Time will tell obviously but there are better predictions to be found on this board and lots of other places. Probably in your own head if you've got a good idea of trends.

clikityclak

As someone who was taught by AK, I'm not sure where he's getting his conclusions from, as he's usually quite the astute operator. Look at his predicitons for Roscommon/S.Leitrim.. Kelly to be elected? Pfffft.

craigybagel

While I do disagree with some of his suggestions (no seat for Gerry in particular) I think the OP is being too hard on him. He makes a reasonable argument, based on various studies and taking a lot of local issues into account, and I think he may well prove to be more accurate than expected.
That said, this is a pretty unpredictable election, and counting day is going to be fascinating when the counts come in with so many constituencies that could go any way.

craigybagel

And as for comparing it to the boards poll, while it has been very well written and I have enjoyed both voting in it and following the results from various constituencies, I think it is no more accurate than a Boardsies wet dream. We all want there to only be 4 FF TD's, but its never going to happen.

Bubblegums

It will be interesting to see if Ivan Yates' predictions are on the money, I reckon he's closest to the mark.

Liam Byrne

It's hard to gauge what Adams' actual support will be, because it's the first time ever that someone from outside the state has run for election to the Dáil, at least to my knowledge.

And while that didn't affect Mary McAleese getting the presidency, it's a different story when it's an actual position of power.

Is Adams going to move if elected, or has he already?

Think about it - if a Dub started canvassing in Cork, would they get votes?

And all that is leaving aside any references to Adams' dubious connections, ethics and economic policies.

I genuinely think he has a mountain to climb, even if FF have overtaken his party as the one whose connections damaged/undermined the state the most.

Gingy

I got fed up reading those predictions over the weekend. In nearly every one, he mentions the Gilmore Gale and the Doherty Drive. He seems to like alliteration too much, and I don't agree with his predictions that Labour are going to sweep up all round them, I don't think he's taken local considerations into account for most of the constituencies.

steelcityblues

In his final set of constituencies, Kavanagh predicted two Labour seats in both Wexford and Wicklow?

Surely, this is more nonsense!