Latest Boards.ie poll results - FF 2 seats

Laminations

Latest results have FF securing 2 seats, Micheal Martin and Bobby Aylward, if this were to occur in the election that'd be the death of the party - here's hoping. Nowhere near an overall majority for FG though with them on 44 seats (Labour on 38). All that said, there are still constituencies to be tallied and problems to iron out I'm sure.

I think it is time for anyone in FF that is interested in shaping Ireland through politics and interested in being honest with themselves to stop beating a dead horse and set up a new party, ensuring you don't invite the old guard.

Here is a lesson on how to distance yourself from a scandal-ridden organisation

So as well as general discussion of the ramifications if such a disasterous polling performance was repeated on the day, my question is to FF supporters I suppose. If FF are wiped out, what will you fo? Will you remain in the party or try and influence politics another way?

Chucky the tree

Fianna Fail won't be wiped out. I wouldn't pay much attention to the boards poll.

cathaloc

Chucky the tree wrote: »

Fianna Fail won't be wiped out. I wouldn't pay much attention to the boards poll.

What he said. I think the demographic of boards.ie users is outside of FFs core voters.

I would be shocked if the actual results for any of the parties were anything like whats being predicted in the boards.ie poll, with the possible exception of FG.

cupan

Chucky the tree wrote: »

Fianna Fail won't be wiped out. I wouldn't pay much attention to the boards poll.

I wouldn't pay too much to the Boards poll because i dont think it gives a fair representation of the population but I do think th poll reflects lot of distain for FF.

runman

Results are hilarious. Willy odea didnt even get in!!!:eek:

Hel top the pole on the day..Hel be running buses of elderly women up to the voting centres..
Sinn fein with more seats than FF.
Seems to be non representative pole alright.

outandabout

I'd imagine Martin is safe and would expect the following to get re-elected


Brian Lenihan; Charlie O'Connor; Chris Andrews; Dara Calleary; Mary Fitzpatrick; Willie O'Dea; John McGuinness; Michael Kennedy; John O'Donoghue; Barry Cowen and Mary O'Rourke.

That gives them 11 seats but I suspect they will be in the late teens/early 20s with a final push to the party faithful in the next week.

Zubeneschamali

outandabout wrote: »

Mary O'Rourke.

Don't think so, Paddy Power has her at 6/4, with 4 others odds-on.

Willie Penrose (Lab) 1/33
James Bannon (FG) 1/7
Nicky McFadden (FG) 3/10
Peter Kelly (FF) 1/2

guitarzero

Fianna Fail will never be wiped out if RTE and the Media have anything to do with. Its better to be talked about than not.

Hank_Jones

guitarzero wrote: »

Fianna Fail will never be wiped out if RTE and the Media have anything to do with. Its better to be talked about than not.

I wouldn't think people take too much stock in what RTE have to say about FF.

county man

outandabout wrote: »

I'd imagine Martin is safe and would expect the following to get re-elected


Brian Lenihan; Charlie O'Connor; Chris Andrews; Dara Calleary; Mary Fitzpatrick; Willie O'Dea; John McGuinness; Michael Kennedy; John O'Donoghue; Barry Cowen and Mary O'Rourke.

That gives them 11 seats but I suspect they will be in the late teens/early 20s with a final push to the party faithful in the next week.

I dont think O Donoghue is at all sure of being re elected.As well as him being in FF the expenses issue hasnt gone away you know.

Zubeneschamali

county man wrote: »

I dont think O Donoghue is at all sure of being re elected.

Paddy Power puts him 7th in the running in a 3 seater.

touts

The demographic question about age is now a help to clarifying how accurate the poll is. I suspect it will be very heavy on the 18-30yr "live on the internet" group and low on the 55-100yr "what's this interweb thing" group who make up the majority of Fianna Fail's core vote.

I think they will be somewhere between 20 and 30 seats which is still a disaster for them.

touts

That said it is a good indication of where Fianna Fail will be in 20 years when their core vote have passed away.

touts

guitarzero wrote: »

Fianna Fail will never be wiped out if RTE and the Media have anything to do with. Its better to be talked about than not.

Not all the media. Denis "Esat" O'Brien's Newstalk are doing their best to use a nail gun on FF's coffin.

analucija

cupan wrote: »

I wouldn't pay too much to the Boards poll because i dont think it gives a fair representation of the population but I do think th poll reflects lot of distain for FF.

It does. However it does not have any more significance as guessing. I'd say it is a lot harder even for proper polls to get it right in Ireland because a lot depends who the local candidates are.

munchkin_utd

touts wrote: »

The demographic question about age is now a help to clarifying how accurate the poll is. I suspect it will be very heavy on the 18-30yr "live on the internet" group and low on the 55-100yr "what's this interweb thing" group who make up the majority of Fianna Fail's core vote.

I think they will be somewhere between 20 and 30 seats which is still a disaster for them.

it would be interesting if someone could post the voting demographics, i.e. how many of 20years olds actually bother to vote, compared to 60 year olds?

60 year olds dont have football training on a Friday evening the mnute you land off the bus from college, nor is the lure of the pub greater than the voting booth.
I suspect apathy toward elections isnt so high now, but whether THAT many more young folks will vote than previously is a good question.

Example. In the cavan Monaghan 5 seater, minister for agriculture Brendan Smith would be seen as a very very likely FF safe seat. Just one example of the error in demographic coming through in the boards poll. (and the shinners will NOT win 2 seats in cavan monaghan nor get the guts of half the first preferences!!)
Also, the transfers are a MASSIVE part of the irish voting system, especially in the later counts for seat allocation. Thats not taken into account in the boards poll.

Zubeneschamali

munchkin_utd wrote: »

Also, the transfers are a MASSIVE part of the irish voting system, especially in the later counts for seat allocation. Thats not taken into account in the boards poll.

Yes, it is, in any constituency for which they get some minimum number of votes.

scr123

A farcial message board poll is used to initiate more ranting animosity towards FF. At this moment FF are a long established fabulous brand of motor car that ran in to a freak problem with 50% of cars recalled. Once the problem is sorted out that golden brand will hit the market again and become the bestseller product that will be the envy of the world.

Stop kidding yourselves ABFF. I have been at a few FF functions in past year and I assure you the age profile is right across the ages. There are plenty who will dive on the brand and restore it to its glory. What will make their job much easier is the simple fact the ABFF are going into government and be forced, despite the campaign nonsense they are spouting, to carry out the painful measures that FF have done over last 3 years. Its all ahead of you folk !

Zubeneschamali

scr123 wrote: »

At this moment FF are a long established fabulous brand of motor car that ran in to a freak problem

Do you mean Cowen or Bertie?

bamboozle

touts wrote: »

Not all the media. Denis "Esat" O'Brien's Newstalk are doing their best to use a nail gun on FF's coffin.

any form of media who report using the facts of the last number of years would be akin to using a nail gun of FF's coffin.

vallo

scr123 wrote: »

At this moment FF are a long established fabulous brand of motor car that ran in to a freak problem with 50% of cars recalled. Once the problem is sorted out that golden brand will hit the market again and become the bestseller product that will be the envy of the world.

Yes, perhaps like a soft-top car that found itself in the middle of a thundershower with no roof, and decided the best thing to do was to drive off the pier into the sea.

Unfortunately I do believe that a)the boards poll is miles off wrt FF seats and b)FF will be back. We'll be hearing about Lehman bros for years to come!

quidestveritas?

Laminations wrote: »

Latest results have FF securing 2 seats, Micheal Martin and Bobby Aylward, if this were to occur in the election that'd be the death of the party - here's hoping. Nowhere near an overall majority for FG though with them on 44 seats (Labour on 38). All that said, there are still constituencies to be tallied and problems to iron out I'm sure.

Few people will be happier than me to see Fianna Fail wiped out but to take the boards.ie poll in any way seriously is to beggar belief. Look at the figures you quote: FG+Labour = 82 and FF 2. So half the seats are going to people outside the three main parties! Dylan Haskins, Luke 'Ming' Flanagan and the likes are topping the poll in various constituencies.

What IS interesting (and might even mean something) is to look at the transfer patterns in those constituencies where candidates are being eliminated or elected with a large surplus. Some interesting stuff there if you look at FG to Labour and Labour to FG patterns. Where are the Green votes going? SF getting transfers where they didn't use to. Agus mar sin de

Laminations

Yeah I'm not taking that poll as representative and I know they wont be decimated, I suppose the question was aimed at FFers, is there a low point to which the party can fall at which time you will pack it in. I think the post further up this page is a resounding NO.

Dido's White Flag comes to mind

guitarzero

Hank_Jones wrote: »

I wouldn't think people take too much stock in what RTE have to say about FF.

Being seen is sufficient, ask any business or corperation how much they pay for advertisement, if you're seen your considered.

scr123

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Do you mean Cowen or Bertie?

The only mistake Bertie and Cowen made was not manufacturing a problem with the Greens in early 2008 and going to the country. Now wouldnt that have ben the best political stroke of all time

Laminations

scr123 wrote: »

The only mistake Bertie and Cowen made was not manufacturing a problem with the Greens in early 2008 and going to the country. Now wouldnt that have ben the best political stroke of all time

But they did manufacture a problem in 2008, many problems. Bank guarantee, bank bailouts, golden circle, NAMA - the problem is they didn't go to the country, not even when there were 4 byelections outstanding.

Eutow

scr123 wrote: »

A farcial message board poll is used to initiate more ranting animosity towards FF. At this moment FF are a long established fabulous brand of motor car that ran in to a freak problem with 50% of cars recalled. Once the problem is sorted out that golden brand will hit the market again and become the bestseller product that will be the envy of the world.

Stop kidding yourselves ABFF. I have been at a few FF functions in past year and I assure you the age profile is right across the ages. There are plenty who will dive on the brand and restore it to its glory. What will make their job much easier is the simple fact the ABFF are going into government and be forced, despite the campaign nonsense they are spouting, to carry out the painful measures that FF have done over last 3 years. Its all ahead of you folk !

Who is this ABFF you keep on about? Plenty of people that hate FFailure will also not vote Greens, Sinn Fein and People Before Profit, so that would make them ABFFGSFPBP.

Your attitude and your comments such as "There are plenty who will dive on the brand and restore it to its glory" is the reason people despise FFailure and politicans like them because all you care about is the "brand", and "the party" and don't give a shi*t about the country.

And remind me again why a non FFailure government will have to make painful decisions?...

scr123

Laminations wrote: »

But they did manufacture a problem in 2008, many problems. Bank guarantee, bank bailouts, golden circle, NAMA - the problem is they didn't go to the country, not even when there were 4 byelections outstanding.

The vast majority of those who dived on easy credit and low interest rates were people who vote ABFF. They have been complaining bitterly about the lack of new goodies but no doubt they will queue up outside DOF on Monday week returning all the goodies they got from FF during the great years.
The country can relax, a mesage board says FF will only get two seats and those two will die off quickly leaving the country in the hands of people who will take us to paradise.
This time 12 months a wall will be built around Ireland to keep the pesky foreigners out of heaven

K-9

I'd say barring a strong SF bias on these polls, it isn't far off.

Knock off a few SF seats and add them to FF and it would be close.

My constituency is way off though, 2 Independents coming 2nd and 3rd!

ilovesleep

scr123 wrote: »

The vast majority of those who dived on easy credit and low interest rates were people who vote ABFF. They have been complaining bitterly about the lack of new goodies but no doubt they will queue up outside DOF on Monday week returning all the goodies they got from FF during the great years.
The country can relax, a mesage board says FF will only get two seats and those two will die off quickly leaving the country in the hands of people who will take us to paradise.
This time 12 months a wall will be built around Ireland to keep the pesky foreigners out of heaven

Obvious troll is obvious. I was considering on giving an FF a vote lower down on the ballot paper, but reading from you shows that FF is a toxic cult and now I wont.

Het-Field

Having spoken to a staunch FFer (with apparent internal influence), it would appear that they are on course for beween 2 and 3 seats in Dublin.