General Election 2011 Great Prediction Thread

leincar

Maybe this could be stickied.

With only nine full days canvassing to go to polling day, lets have your predictions for the great day.

Predict the following:

1. National share of votes and seats for parties and independents.

2. Share of seats for 12 constituencies of Dublin.

3. National Voter turnout percentage

4. Biggest vote getter.

Here are my predictions:

Share of Vote and Seats Nationally

1. Fine Gael - 37% - 74 Seats
2. Labour - 24% - 47 Seats
3. Sinn Féin - 10% - 14 Seats
4. Fianna Fáil - 13% - 15 Seats
5. ULA/Soc - 3% - 4 Seats
6. Ind - 11% - 12 Seats
7. Green - 2% - 0 Seats

Share of Seats for Dublin Constituencies

1. Fine Gael - 16 Seats
2. Labour - 20 Seats
3. Sinn Féin - 4 Seats
4. Fianna Fáil - 0 Seats
5. ULA/Soc - 4 Seats
6. IND - 3 Seats

National Voter Turnout Percentage

71.6%

Biggest Vote Getter

Shane Ross.

nevsky

National share and seats

FG - 40% - 81
LAB - 21% - 37
SF - 9% - 13
FF - 15% - 18
ULA - 2% - 4
IND - 12% - 13


Dublin seats

FG - 14
LAB - 21
SF - 4
FF - 1
ULA - 4
IND - 3

Turnout - 69.8%

Largest vote getter - Enda Kenny

I used a combination of John Drennans guide, the various polls and the boards.ie poll.

Eliot Rosewater

I think Fianna Fail will get in or about 25% of the vote. I'd be willing to bet my house that they'll get more than 20%. I figure people have been lying to the polling companies. When they get into the polling station and they're behind the curtain within the cloak of anonymity, their deep dark interior will come to the fore and the grubby pencil will spell out preferences for Fianna Fail.

Killer Pigeon

FG - 36% - ~60 seats
Labour - 24% - ~40 seats
FF - 13% - ~21 seats
SF - 15% - ~25 seats
Greens - 2% - ~3 seats
ULA - 6% - ~10 seats
Other - 4% - ~7 seats
(Independents,
Fís Nua, etc..)

craigybagel

FG - 65
FF - 40
LB - 31
SF - 11
GP - 1
Others - 18

As I've said in previous threads, I don't think that things will really change that much, despite the polls. FF collapse won't be that huge, and neither will the LB and SF gains. GP to lose everything bar Trevor Sargent.

Lame Lantern

FG - ~35%, ~60 seats
FF - ~25% (maybe less on the tally) ~38 seats
Labour - ~25% ~42 seats
SF - 8 seats
Greens - 0 seats
ULA - 2/3 seats
Independents/Lunatics - 15/16 seats

My take on the polls is that people are giving the "correct" answers to pollsters and endorsing FG or independents where they are really going to vote for their likeable local FF TD or are undecided, not to mention the fact that Irish polling companies have traditionally been less than rigorous in their sampling efforts. It would be remarkable to see FF fall below the 20% mark on the tally, though it may be all the hubristic remarks being made by commentators that have forced me into a place of caution to compensate.

leincar

Just to take up on points made by Eliot Rosewater, and predictions made by both Craigybagel and Lame Lantern.

I've gone back and taken a look at the polls( I look at polls quite a bit, not politics but product) published by the various media outlets, the boards.ie poll, listening to people and gut feeling.

Firstly as I wrote in a previous thread, Fianna Fáil are only standing 75 candidates in forty three constituencies. Instantly, the best they could hope for is to be part of a coalition. I'll look at Dublin first. Here they are standing 17 candidates in twelve constituencies. I still believe they will not get any candidate elected in Dublin. However, if there vote was not to collapse dramatically they would have a chance in Dublin West(Lenihan) and Dublin Mid-West(Curran). In Dublin alone there are five constituencies where Fianna Fáil are standing 2 people in each constituency. With the possible exception of Lenihan they will cancel each other out.

That leaves 43 candidates running in thirty one constituencies. Micheál Martin has already conceded that they cannot get 2 seats in any constituency as he was scrambling to get candidates off the ticket before the final date for nominations.

At this stage we are left with 31 candidates for thirty one constituencies. With the best will in the world(Honestly I'm trying to keep my anti Fianna Fáil bias out of the equation) they will not get thirty one seats.

Most if not all observers suggest that Fianna Fáil will not get seats in the following seats:

Tipperary North and South
Kildare North
Kerry North - West Limerick
Wicklow

That leaves twenty six constituencies where they could, would, should(tick as appropriate) get a seat. Now I go on gut feeling. I remember being on a business trip to London and Newcastle(business honestly) a week before the general election of 1997 in the U.K. I am getting that same feeling here. It seems to have turned around in the last five days and I think to use those oft used phrases 'The tide is turning' and 'The wind of change' is appropriate right now.

So I still go with fifteen seats for Fianna Fáil. The only constituencies where I think they are absolutely guaranteed a seat are:

Carlow/Kilkenny
Cavan/Monaghan
Clare
Cork South Central
Donegal South East
Galway East
Galway West
Kildare South
Laois/Offaly
Limerick City
Louth* Ceann Comhairle
Mayo
Meath West
Waterford
Wexford.

Eliot Rosewater

In my defence my prediction was a national percentage vote one, which is not influenced by the number of candidates running.

I just personally think that lot of people have a pro-FF streak in them that comes out every now and again, subtly. For example, people who say "the IMF deal isn't a bailout" or other cute remarks that show an underlying sympathy towards Fianna Fail. They're not honest about it, because they know they'll be attacked by their peers for admitting such support, but once they enter the anonymity of the polling booth such societal concerns disappear.

It's also worth noting that some polling companies don't publish the phone results directly - they kind of of average them with previous election results. This is because a trend emerged of people lying to polling companies about their genuine choice. I feel this is happening now. It's socially unacceptable at the moment to be for Fianna Fail, and this is fighting with the inherent pro-FF bias in the Irish psyche.

Great analysis though. You can add Cork North West to the guaranteed FF seat category.

leincar

Eliot Rosewater wrote: »

In my defence my prediction was a national percentage vote one, which is not influenced by the number of candidates running.

I just personally think that lot of people have a pro-FF streak in them that comes out every now and again, subtly. For example, people who say "the IMF deal isn't a bailout" or other cute remarks that show an underlying sympathy towards Fianna Fail. They're not honest about it, because they know they'll be attacked by their peers for admitting such support, but once they enter the anonymity of the polling booth such societal concerns disappear.

It's also worth noting that some polling companies don't publish the phone results directly - they kind of of average them with previous election results. This is because a trend emerged of people lying to polling companies about their genuine choice. I feel this is happening now. It's socially unacceptable at the moment to be for Fianna Fail, and this is fighting with the inherent pro-FF bias in the Irish psyche.

Great analysis though. You can add Cork North West to the guaranteed FF seat category.

I wasn't having a go. If anything I was defending my prediction of 15 seats.

craigybagel

leincar wrote: »

Just to take up on points made by Eliot Rosewater, and predictions made by both Craigybagel and Lame Lantern.

I've gone back and taken a look at the polls( I look at polls quite a bit, not politics but product) published by the various media outlets, the boards.ie poll, listening to people and gut feeling.

Firstly as I wrote in a previous thread, Fianna Fáil are only standing 75 candidates in forty three constituencies. Instantly, the best they could hope for is to be part of a coalition. I'll look at Dublin first. Here they are standing 17 candidates in twelve constituencies. I still believe they will not get any candidate elected in Dublin. However, if there vote was not to collapse dramatically they would have a chance in Dublin West(Lenihan) and Dublin Mid-West(Curran). In Dublin alone there are five constituencies where Fianna Fáil are standing 2 people in each constituency. With the possible exception of Lenihan they will cancel each other out.

That leaves 43 candidates running in thirty one constituencies. Micheál Martin has already conceded that they cannot get 2 seats in any constituency as he was scrambling to get candidates off the ticket before the final date for nominations.

At this stage we are left with 31 candidates for thirty one constituencies. With the best will in the world(Honestly I'm trying to keep my anti Fianna Fáil bias out of the equation) they will not get thirty one seats.

Most if not all observers suggest that Fianna Fáil will not get seats in the following seats:

Tipperary North and South
Kildare North
Kerry North - West Limerick
Wicklow

That leaves twenty six constituencies where they could, would, should(tick as appropriate) get a seat. Now I go on gut feeling. I remember being on a business trip to London and Newcastle(business honestly) a week before the general election of 1997 in the U.K. I am getting that same feeling here. It seems to have turned around in the last five days and I think to use those oft used phrases 'The tide is turning' and 'The wind of change' is appropriate right now.

So I still go with fifteen seats for Fianna Fáil. The only constituencies where I think they are absolutely guaranteed a seat are:

Carlow/Kilkenny
Cavan/Monaghan
Clare
Cork South Central
Donegal South East
Galway East
Galway West
Kildare South
Laois/Offaly
Limerick City
Louth* Ceann Comhairle
Mayo
Meath West
Waterford
Wexford.

You make some good considered points there, and I hope that you will be right. I think though that there is slightly more hope in Dublin for them. I think that one of Hanafin or Andrews will take a seat in DL for example. And as unpopular as he is, it would still take a huge drop to lose Dick Roche in Wicklow. THere are a lot more rural constituencies too that I can't see the old folks turning their back on FF in. Maybe my 40 was too high, but I still think you will turn out to be too low.